Hillary Clinton’s frustration: What I’m reading, April 4, 2016 (updated)

benfell

Updated for a column by Gerald Seib in the Wall Street Journal on the loss of optimism in the U.S. and additional articles on the Panama Papers.

Hillary Clinton

Alex Glorioso, “Clinton’s fossil fuel friends: Lobbyist bundlers brought in big money (but there’s an asterisk),” Center for Responsive Politics, April 1, 2016, http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2016/04/clintons-fossil-fuel-friends-lobbyist-bundlers-brought-in-big-money/

Connor Lynch, “Hillary is sick of the left: Why Bernie’s persistence is a powerful reminder of Clinton’s troubling centrism,” Salon, April 4, 2016, http://www.salon.com/2016/04/04/hillary_is_sick_of_the_left_why_bernies_persistence_is_a_powerful_reminder_of_clintons_troubling_centrism/

Panama Papers

From what I can see so far, it is unclear that this massive leak exposes any violations of the law. But it’s generating plenty of heat as constituents wonder why their politicians employ these sorts of financial vehicles.

International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, “Offshore links of more than 140 politicians and officials exposed,” April 3, 2016, https://www.icij.org/blog/2016/04/offshore-links-more-140-politicians-and-officials-exposed

Jethro Mullen, “Panama Papers: Rich and powerful respond to claims they hid billions offshore,” CNN, April 4, 2016, http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/04/news/panama-papers-offshore-accounts-investigation/index.html

Craig Murray, “Corporate Media Gatekeepers Protect Western 1 Percent From Panama Leak,” Truthdig, April 4, 2016, http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/media_gatekeepers_protect_western_1_percent_from_panama_leak_20160404

Danny Vinik, “The Panama Papers: Where are the Americans?” Politico, April 4, 2016, http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2016/04/the-panama-papers-where-are-the-americans-000083

The Horse Race

I’ve generally, but not always,[1] tried to stop short of forecasting a Donald Trump win in November, although with Hillary Clinton as his likely opponent, it certainly looks that way to me.[2] Now a couple economic models have forecast a Republican victory, even if Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, and a third predicts a Democratic victory, but President Barack Obama’s approval rating has risen, which might tip the balance toward two forecasting a Democratic victory.[3]

I think I’ve made clear before, probably in response to an earlier article forecasting a Trump victory based on a model,[4] that I don’t think this is the year to rely on any modeling. This year is just too different from previous election years, with the establishment coming under serious challenge on both left and right. I think the Democrats’ failure to nominate Bernie Sanders would mean that Donald Trump, assuming he in fact wins the Republican nomination, would be the only populist, albeit authoritarian populist, voice that people whom the elite have left to twist in the wind[5] can turn to. I think that while a great many people will be repulsed by Donald Trump, their anger at the establishment (functionalist conservatives) and the choices they’re being offered[6] may be such that they may also simply refuse to turn out for Hillary Clinton in November.

So the part of Vicki Needham’s article I would listen to is this:

“As economists this is a very unusual election and there’s a lot more uncertainty introduced this time around that could upset the balance and the historical relationship of how marginal voters vote,” said Dan White, an economist with Moody’s Analytics who oversees the firm’s monthly election model.

Ray Fair, a Yale professor who launched his model in 1978, told The Hill that while all elections include unruly features that an economic model can’t pick up, “this one seems particularly unusual.”

“If there’s any time in which personalities would trump the economy it would be this election,” Fair said.[7]

Meanwhile, thinking surely I should have heard something by now, I also tried to chase down confirmation of the story yesterday on Bernie Sanders having won Nevada after all.[8] I only found one story covering what happened at all, in the Washington Post. It says only that Sanders narrowed the gap, with Clinton still ahead, 18-17, barely mentions that “the rules of which were the source of a good deal of controversy among Clinton and Sanders partisans,” and quotes spokespeople from both the Clinton and Sanders campaign expressing some uncertainty as to the final result, which is apparently yet to be determined.[9] I have prepended a correction to yesterday’s blog post.

David Goldstein, “Blue collar voters: Trade is killing us,” McClatchy, April 2, 2016, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article69551672.html?rh=1

John Wagner, “A scrappy Sanders campaign narrows the Nevada delegate count six weeks after the caucuses,” Washington Post, April 3, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/04/03/a-scrappy-sanders-campaign-narrows-the-nevada-delegate-count-six-weeks-after-the-caucuses/

Vicki Needham, “Economic models predict GOP White House, even with Trump,” Hill, April 4, 2016, http://thehill.com/policy/finance/275084-models-predict-gop-white-house-even-with-trump

Gerald F. Seib, “Optimism Is a Casualty in Campaign 2016,” Wall Street Journal, April 4, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/optimism-is-a-casualty-in-campaign-2016-1459784331

Footnotes

  1. [1]David Benfell, “Donald Trump would (and probably will) be the president the establishment deserves,” Not Housebroken, March 3, 2016, https://disunitedstates.org/?p=8802↩
  2. [2]David Benfell, “The very possible and increasingly probable President Trump,” Not Housebroken, January 21, 2016, https://disunitedstates.org/?p=8562; David Benfell, “Updated (again and again and again): Damnation by faint praise: Sanders claims to be more electable than Clinton,” Not Housebroken, March 6, 2016, https://disunitedstates.org/?p=8529↩
  3. [3]Vicki Needham, “Economic models predict GOP White House, even with Trump,” Hill, April 4, 2016, http://thehill.com/policy/finance/275084-models-predict-gop-white-house-even-with-trump↩
  4. [4]Alyssa Pereira, “Statistician with near-perfect election formula says prepare yourself for President Trump,” SFGate, February 26, 2016, http://www.sfgate.com/elections/article/Statistician-with-near-perfect-election-formula-6856643.php↩
  5. [5]American Conservative, “After Neoliberalism,” February 25, 2016, http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/after-neoliberalism/; Binyamin Appelbaum, “Simmering for Decades, Anger About Trade Boils Over in ’16 Election,” New York Times, March 29, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/30/business/economy/trade-donald-trump-bernie-sanders.html; Laura Bliss, “The Pessimism of White, Working-Class America,” CityLab, November 17, 2015, http://www.citylab.com/politics/2015/11/the-pessimism-of-white-working-class-america/416379/; Ben Casselman, “The Economy Is Better — Why Don’t Voters Believe It?” FiveThirtyEight, November 12, 2015, http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-economy-is-better-why-dont-voters-believe-it/; John Cassidy, “How Will the Economy’s “Lost Decade” Play Out in 2016?” New Yorker, June 9, 2015, http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/how-will-the-lost-decade-play-out-in-2016; Maureen Dowd, “Trade Winds Blow Ill for Hillary,” New York Times, June 20, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/21/opinion/sunday/maureen-dowd-trade-winds-blow-ill-for-hillary.html; David Goldstein, “Blue collar voters: Trade is killing us,” McClatchy, April 2, 2016, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article69551672.html?rh=1; Nolan D. McCaskill, “Sanders: Trump supporters ‘have a right be angry,’” Politico, February 11, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/bernie-sanders-trump-supporters-219135; Gerald F. Seib, “Angry White Males Propel Donald Trump—and Bernie Sanders,” Wall Street Journal, March 8, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/angry-white-males-propel-donald-trumpand-bernie-sanders-1457495579; Elizabeth Winkler, “According to Bernie Sanders, income inequality means many Americans aren’t ‘truly free,'” Quartz, November 27, 2015, http://qz.com/560106/according-to-bernie-sanders-income-inequality-means-many-americans-arent-truly-free/; Benjamin Wallace-Wells, “The Clintons Have Lost the Working Class,” New Yorker, February 10, 2016, http://www.newyorker.com/news/benjamin-wallace-wells/the-clintons-lose-the-working-class↩
  6. [6]Dan Balz and Scott Clement, “Trump leads, Carson second as GOP voters favor change over experience,” Washington Post, November 21, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-leads-carson-second-as-gop-voters-favor-change-over-experience/2015/11/21/a1f05f1c-8fcb-11e5-acff-673ae92ddd2b_story.html; Michael Barbaro, “Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump Are Winning Votes, but Not Hearts,” New York Times, March 15, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/16/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump.html; Chris Cillizza, “Democrats are WAY angrier than Republicans about the political system,” Washington Post, September 29, 2015, http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/09/29/democrats-are-way-angrier-than-republicans-about-the-political-system/; Ryan Cooper, “Hillary Clinton and the awful risk of winning ugly,” Week, December 21, 2015, http://theweek.com/articles/595141/hillary-clinton-awful-risk-winning-ugly; Anupreeta Das and Emily Glazer, “Republicans and Democrats Agree: We Hate Wall Street,” Wall Street Journal, January 13, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/republicans-and-democrats-agree-we-hate-wall-street-1452681567; David Frum, “The Great Republican Revolt,” Atlantic, January, 2016, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-great-republican-revolt/419118/; Nick Gass, “Poll: GOP three times as angry at government,” Politico, November 23, 2015, http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/poll-republicans-angry-government-216141; Patrick Healy, “Democrats Find That Anti-Establishment Isn’t Just a G.O.P. Theme,” New York Times, October 3, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/04/us/insurgent-candidacies-shaking-up-the-gop-also-dog-democrats.html; Janet Hook, “Voters’ Mood: Surly Side Up, With a Side of Optimism, Poll Shows,” Wall Street Journal, October 1, 2015, http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/10/01/voters-mood-surly-side-up-with-a-side-of-optimism-poll-shows/; David Lightman, “Is Obama a help or hindrance for ’16 Democrats?” Sacramento Bee, November 14, 2015, http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/election/presidential-election/article44891859.html; Patrick O’Connor, “Voters Not Happy With Presidential Choices — WSJ/NBC News Poll,” Wall Street Journal, October 21, 2015, http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/10/21/wsjnbc-news-poll-reveals-an-uninspired-electorate/; George Packer, “The Republican Class War,” New Yorker, November 9, 2015, http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/09/the-republican-class-war; Robert Reich, “The Revolt Against the Ruling Class,” August 2, 2015, http://robertreich.org/post/125702366950; Douglas E. Schoen, “Hillary the Shaky Favorite,” Wall Street Journal, March 16, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-the-shaky-favorite-1458169079; Scott Timberg, “If you want me to vote for Hillary, ‘she needs to come left to get it’: Not the traditionally ‘undecided,’ these potential voters are frustrated — and may stay home,” Salon, March 18, 2016, http://www.salon.com/2016/03/18/earn_my_vote_or_lose_it_not_the_traditionally_undecided_these_potential_voters_are_frustrated_and_may_stay_home/; Matthew Yglesias, “The surprising success of Bernie Sanders’s insurgency should be a wake-up call to the Democratic establishment,” Vox, February 2, 2016, http://www.vox.com/2016/2/2/10892724/bernie-sanders-wake-up-call; Eli Yokley, “Anti-Establishment Mood Doesn’t Stop ‘Invisible Primary’,” Congressional Quarterly Roll Call, October 8, 2015, http://atr.rollcall.com/anti-establishment-furor-doesnt-stop-endorsements/; Aaron Zitner, “Hillary Clinton’s White-Voter Problem May Change Election Math,” Wall Street Journal, October 22, 2015, http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/10/22/can-hillary-clinton-underperform-barack-obama-with-white-voters-and-win/↩
  7. [7]Vicki Needham, “Economic models predict GOP White House, even with Trump,” Hill, April 4, 2016, http://thehill.com/policy/finance/275084-models-predict-gop-white-house-even-with-trump↩
  8. [8]Tom Cahill, “Bernie Sanders Wins the Nevada Caucus After All,” U.S. Uncut, April 3, 2016, http://usuncut.com/politics/bernie-wins-nevada-democratic-caucus/↩
  9. [9]John Wagner, “A scrappy Sanders campaign narrows the Nevada delegate count six weeks after the caucuses,” Washington Post, April 3, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/04/03/a-scrappy-sanders-campaign-narrows-the-nevada-delegate-count-six-weeks-after-the-caucuses/↩

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