I put out the earlier version of this posting too soon. A number of articles have been added.
Results of two separate polls have been released. Coverage of the Washington Post-ABC News poll is more complete. Bernie Sanders remains by far the stronger candidate against Trump. But Clinton supporters blame him rather than their own candidate’s horrendous weaknesses.
Support for the two candidates as they begin their direct engagement appears tepid. Less than half of those in Clinton’s column say they strongly support her, while a bare majority say they support her “somewhat.” The numbers for Trump are virtually identical. . . .
Among registered voters, Clinton runs away from Trump on such attributes as having the right experience to be president, having the personality and temperament to serve in the Oval Office and having realistic policy proposals. Trump’s strongest calling card is as a change agent. The two are judged more or less evenly on honesty and trustworthiness, on strength of leadership and on keeping the country safe.
On issues, registered voters clearly prefer Trump on taxes and by a narrower margin on international trade. Clinton has a wide lead on issues of importance to women and rates ahead of Trump on dealing with an international crisis and handling international relations, and holds a slight edge on handling immigration. . . .
The poll suggests that Trump has more vulnerabilities than Clinton, but that opposition to the former secretary of state can lead some voters with a mixed to unfavorable view of Trump to support him nonetheless.
The Clinton camp has claimed that Democrats have yet to unify behind her while Trump benefits from a consolidation of Republican support. I’m inclined to accept that argument, but reading these results, I’m feeling somewhat vindicated in my argument that she can’t win.
Dan Balz and Scott Clement, “Poll: Election 2016 shapes up as a contest of negatives,” Washington Post, May 21, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-election-2016-shapes-up-as-a-contest-of-negatives/2016/05/21/8d4ccfd6-1ed3-11e6-b6e0-c53b7ef63b45_story.html
Patrick O’Connor, “Hillary Clinton’s Lead Over Donald Trump Narrows,” Wall Street Journal, May 22, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clintons-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows-1463922182
Aviva Chomsky, “The Battle for the Soul of American Higher Education: Student Protest, the Black Lives Matter Movement, and the Rise of the Corporate University,” TomDispatch, May 22, 2016, http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/176143/tomgram%3A_aviva_chomsky%2C_will_the_millennial_movement_rebuild_the_ivory_tower_or_be_crushed_by_it/
Kevin Sullivan, “Primed to fight the government,” Washington Post, May 21, 2016, http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2016/05/21/armed-with-guns-and-constitutions-the-patriot-movement-sees-america-under-threat/
Skepticism is sometimes more ideological than analytic.
John Horgan, “Dear ‘Skeptics,’ Bash Homeopathy and Bigfoot Less, Mammograms and War More,” Scientific American, May 16, 2016, http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/dear-skeptics-bash-homeopathy-and-bigfoot-less-mammograms-and-war-more/
- Patrick O’Connor, “Hillary Clinton’s Lead Over Donald Trump Narrows,” Wall Street Journal, May 22, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-clintons-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows-1463922182↩
- Dan Balz and Scott Clement, “Poll: Election 2016 shapes up as a contest of negatives,” Washington Post, May 21, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-election-2016-shapes-up-as-a-contest-of-negatives/2016/05/21/8d4ccfd6-1ed3-11e6-b6e0-c53b7ef63b45_story.html↩
- Steven Shepard, “Why Donald Trump’s poll numbers are surging,” Politico, May 20, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/donald-trump-poll-surge-223419↩