Donald Trump
I apologize if I have mangled the order of some of these tweets. I’m not seeing a clear way beyond context to figure out what happened in what order here. That approach has some rather severe limitations. By the way, according to his profile, Adam Gentleson is Harry Reid’s former deputy chief of staff:
I think Pelosi is showing a lot of leadership by focusing on issues that are both more important to rank-and-file voters and more likely to lead to positive electoral outcomes for Democrats, instead of listening to the loudest voices in the room. https://t.co/EKXJKdHr8n
β Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 8, 2019
βNever lead.β
– @NateSilver538, basically
β Adam Jentleson π (@AJentleson) May 8, 2019
A big part of being a leader is knowing when an issue is important enough to push your members to do the right thing, even when itβs hard. And then the discussion is how to bring the public along and lead when the polls are not initially in your favor.
β Adam Jentleson π (@AJentleson) May 8, 2019
Given what sheβs saying (along with others) about the likelihood that Trump will refuse to respect the results of the next election … and the fact that the Senate is obstructing all House bills, THERE ARE NO LONGER TERM PRIORITIES.
No hyperbole: democracy is at risk! https://t.co/FxRfBNqu4D
β Jim Dennis (@answrguy) May 8, 2019
Thread: For those too lazy to click through, @answrguy is responding to @NateSilver538‘s infamous tweet about @SpeakerPelosi “showing good leadership” on impeachment. There are a bunch of problems. 1/16 https://t.co/LoC7xlJDMr
β David Benfell, Ph.D. (@n4rky) May 8, 2019
First, we have a reality that impeachment hits a wall in the Senate. That leaves the case for impeachment to rest on moral grounds. To my knowledge, this case is best made here: https://t.co/Qg6j8BIbeU 2/16
β David Benfell, Ph.D. (@n4rky) May 8, 2019
However @Delavegalaw answers the problem of the Senate suggesting that @HouseDemocrats can control the narrative and the timing right up until it passes to the Senate (that is, if it ever does): https://t.co/rraevOmyqp 3/16
β David Benfell, Ph.D. (@n4rky) May 8, 2019
I was referring to this tweet:
If the House begins a focused impeachment inquiry — use the word because it’s what the framers intended Congress to do to bridle a tyrant — they can change the entire narrative.They can drive the train. It will take a long time.The train doesn’t ever have to get to the Senate. https://t.co/dHwylpV3p8
β Elizabeth de la Vega (@Delavegalaw) April 30, 2019
To resume the thread:
Another problem is the electoral politics of all this. @NateSilver538 is a pollster, which means he’s very likely relying on something like a nine percent response rate. It should be more like 90% but it isn’t. I don’t trust his data. 4/16
β David Benfell, Ph.D. (@n4rky) May 8, 2019
But @NateSilver538 essentially thinks @TheDemocrats should move on, just like the @GOP wants them to. Gotta tell you, this is not an impressive argument. Silver flunks here. 5/16
β David Benfell, Ph.D. (@n4rky) May 8, 2019
The trouble is that even with such a dismal argument, @NateSilver538 can still be right. When I distrust his data, what that means is I don’t know that what he says is true. It does NOT mean I know it to be false. 6/16
β David Benfell, Ph.D. (@n4rky) May 8, 2019
@answrguy bypasses this problem by pointing out that the @SenateGOP are blocking @TheDemocrats‘ initiatives anyway. Since those initiatives–we’re not even talking anything like impeachment here–are doomed, we might as well do the moral thing in defense of the republic. 7/16
β David Benfell, Ph.D. (@n4rky) May 8, 2019
The trouble is that none of this–absolutely none of this–moves the needle. @realDonaldTrump‘s base will back him until hell freezes over. As long as that’s the case, Trump has effectively captured the @GOP. And all of this still looks like the #MoralityOfPolarization. 8/16
β David Benfell, Ph.D. (@n4rky) May 8, 2019
I explain the #MoralityOfPolarization here: https://t.co/7il8OcBQr3 But basically what it means is that whatever “our” side does is good simply by virtue of the fact that “our” side is doing it. 9/16
β David Benfell, Ph.D. (@n4rky) May 8, 2019
And whatever the “other” side is doing is evil simply by virtue of the fact they’re doing it. Worse, whichever side “we” are on, we distrust the other’s motivations and information. We simply see the other side as irredeemably evil. 10/16
β David Benfell, Ph.D. (@n4rky) May 8, 2019
There’s no way to have a conversation with this kind of attitude. And until someone sees a way to start that conversation, the republic is doomed anyway. 11/16
β David Benfell, Ph.D. (@n4rky) May 8, 2019
Apart from @Delavegalaw‘s argument, impeachment is mere grandstanding. It accomplishes nothing. It does not defend the republic, even if a republic that gives us a choice between @HillaryClinton and @realDonaldTrump and then makes the latter @POTUS is … 12/16
β David Benfell, Ph.D. (@n4rky) May 8, 2019
… really worth defending. I think @Delavegalaw‘s argument ultimately relies on an analogy with @dick_nixon and Watergate. As many have pointed out, times have changed. It’s doubtful the analogy holds. 13/16
β David Benfell, Ph.D. (@n4rky) May 8, 2019
So where does @Delavegalaw‘s argument leave us? Sure, the idea would be for @HouseDemocrats to make a spectacle. But what @realDonaldTrump is signalling is that he will delay, force every confrontation into lengthy court battles, even when he has no chance of winning. 14/16
β David Benfell, Ph.D. (@n4rky) May 8, 2019
Since the executive branch is in control of the evidence (whoops!), and is refusing to hand it over, that means @HouseDemocrats will have little to work with. The spectacle might be over before it begins. 15/16
β David Benfell, Ph.D. (@n4rky) May 8, 2019
I don’t know the answer here. But I sure don’t see how this ends well. 16/16
β David Benfell, Ph.D. (@n4rky) May 8, 2019
Rachael Bade, “White House asserts executive privilege over Mueller report in latest confrontation with Congress,” Washington Post, May 7, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/barr-to-trump-invoke-executive-privileged-over-redacted-mueller-materials/2019/05/07/51c52600-713e-11e9-b5ca-3d72a9fa8ff1_story.html
Rachael Bade, Carol D. Leonnig, and Matt Zapotosky, “House panel votes to hold Barr in contempt; Trump asserts executive privilege over Mueller report,” Washington Post, May 8, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/barr-to-trump-invoke-executive-privileged-over-redacted-mueller-materials/2019/05/07/51c52600-713e-11e9-b5ca-3d72a9fa8ff1_story.html
Russell Berman, “The Rarely Used Congressional Power That Could Force William Barrβs Hand,” Atlantic, May 8, 2019, https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/05/house-democrats-could-arrest-william-barr-contempt/588976/
Walter Shapiro, “The Worst Businessman in America,” New Republic, May 8, 2019, https://newrepublic.com/article/153855/trump-tax-returns-worst-businessman-america