We don’t know where bottom is with this pandemic

Pandemic

Y’all know I’m not a sugar-coating kind of guy anyway, but I don’t think there is a way to sugar-coat the possibility that some who survive a bout with COVID-19 might remain vulnerable to reinfection and that this may well eliminate the possibility of “herd immunity.”[1] I’ve already warned against counting on herd immunity.[2] Now I get to notice that the news with the novel coronavirus keeps getting worse. We don’t know where bottom is with this.

By the way, here’s the text of a notification I received from Allegheny County:

This is the COVID-19 Daily Update from the Allegheny County Health Department (ACHD) for July 12, 2020.

Today’s report of 4,962 cases includes 200 new cases and 8 new hospitalizations out of 1,990 test results. There are no new deaths reported. In the newest cases, ages range from 2 months to 95 years old with the median age being 35. Positive results are from tests that span June 26 through July 11.

The full detail follows:

COVID Cases – 4,962 (+ 200)

This number includes 4,771 confirmed cases and 191 probable cases.

The ages, as well as the percentage of cases represented, of those in the county with COVID-19 are listed below.

00-04 – 47 (1%)
05-12 – 72 (1%)
13-18 – 140 (3%)
19-24 – 888 (18%)
25-49 – 2,002 (40%)
50-64 – 930 (19%)
65 + — 883 (18%)

The gender of those with COVID-19 are listed below:

Female – 2,640 (53%)
Male – 2,322 (47%)

Additionally, there are 464 past or present hospitalizations (+ 8).

To date, there have been 198 deaths (no change). Of those, 186 are confirmed and 12 probable. All deaths are of individuals ranging in age from 23-103, with 84 being the median age of those who have died.

Wearing masks, washing your hands and maintaining physical distance from others is absolutely essential to keep our community safe – now more than ever. Please limit travel and errands to only those that are necessary and take the appropriate steps to protect those around you. Your vigilance can allow us to keep our businesses open and continue to support the economy.

More detailed information is available on the county’s dashboard at https://bit.ly/ACHDcovid-19

I can say it with certainty now. Allegheny County has not got this under control. Period.

D. Clay Ackerly, “My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes,” Vox, July 12, 2020, https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity


  1. [1]D. Clay Ackerly, “My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes,” Vox, July 12, 2020, https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity
  2. [2]David Benfell, “Don’t bet on ‘herd immunity,’” Not Housebroken, July 12, 2020, https://disunitedstates.org/2020/04/18/dont-bet-on-herd-immunity/

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