Tropical Storms
If you think you’re seeing double (figure 1), it’s because you are. I didn’t quite manage to scale the forecast cone map for Marco[1] to line up with the forecast cone map for Laura[2] correctly. It’s only close. Sorry. Marco is also the faint one—I had to reduce the opacity on one image so the other could be seen.
Fig. 1. Forecast zone maps for Tropical Storms Laura[3] and Marco[4] overlaid.
The upshot is that Marco hits first, probably on Monday. Laura follows, probably late Wednesday or early Thursday. Both are forecast to hit roughly the same piece of Louisiana coast as hurricanes.
Fig. 2. 72-hour gif of Eastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico satellite imagery.
Walbridge Fire
Fig. 3. Screenshot of Sonoma County Fire Incident Map taken by author on August 23, 2020, at 8:41 am EDT (5:41 am PDT).
I don’t think I’d noticed before that the mandatory evacuation zones extend as far south as Guerneville Road, northeast of Graton, but on the other side of Highway 116. Zone 4C1 is mostly vineyards to the south, but includes a lot of the forest I was worried about with Kincade last year.
The good news for the moment is that the active fires seem a bit sparser. The bad news is that lightning projected for tonight.[5]
Fig. 4. 72-hour gif of Western U.S. satellite imagery.
You see that swirling thing off the coast near Santa Barbara (figure 4)? That’d be the culprit.
- [1]National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, “Tropical Storm Marco,” August 23, 2020, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/093347.shtml↩
- [2]National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, “Tropical Storm Laura,” August 23, 2020, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/114508.shtml↩
- [3]National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, “Tropical Storm Laura,” August 23, 2020, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/114508.shtml↩
- [4]National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center, “Tropical Storm Marco,” August 23, 2020, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/093347.shtml↩
- [5]Michael McGough, “More weekend thunder, lightning in Northern California forecasts stoke wildfire concerns,” Sacramento Bee, August 21, 2020, https://www.sacbee.com/news/weather-news/article245139635.html↩