Predicting Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign

Democrats

There is a new blog post entitled, “California omens and Washington gridlock.”

Maria L. La Ganga, “Democrats fight California recall but say party must do better: ‘Don’t just sit there,’” Los Angeles Times, September 11, 2021, https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-09-11/voters-to-democrats-listen-up-do-better-job-next-time-around


Infrastructure

Tony Romm, “Sens. Manchin and Sanders square off as Democrats clash over $3.5 trillion economic package,” Washington Post, September 12, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/09/12/manchin-sanders-reconciliation/


Pandemic

Pennsylvania

Jamie Martines and Angie Couloumbis, “Pa. school mask lawsuit backed by group that challenged 2020 election results,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, September 12, 2021, https://triblive.com/news/pennsylvania/pa-school-mask-lawsuit-backed-by-group-that-challenged-2020-election-results/


Donald Trump

Reportedly, Donald Trump visited the the New York Police Department and the New York Fire Department, departments that suffered heavy losses in the 9/11 attacks, yesterday (September 11th) on the 20th anniversary of those attacks.[1] This, in combination with a Republican decision to criticize Joe Biden for Trump’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan,[2] makes a partial outline of a Trump campaign for a return to the presidency in 2024 apparent.

Trump will likely rewrite the history of the Afghanistan war in a way similar to the right-wing rewriting of the war in Vietnam, in which the (brutal) U.S. conduct of the war was whitewashed; it was alleged that the U.S. ‘lost’ the Vietnam War because we had allegedly not fought to win and that the consequent humiliation of ‘defeat’ constitutes a form of treason and a betrayal of those (nonexistent) prisoners of war and missing in action we (had not) left behind;[3] and finally a ‘Vietnam Syndrome’ was invented to explain how the U.S. allegedly, but not really, became reluctant to deploy its military forces in the wake of that defeat.[4] The chaos of the evacuation from Kabul[5] will be compared to that from Saigon.[6]

It will be a nationalistic appeal to ‘patriotic’ Amerikkkans, reassuring them of U.S. claims to righteousness, but of course, only if the Democrats are defeated. It will all be lies—as if we should expect anything else. And, at this moment, I don’t expect it to work among voters outside Trump’s base. But time will tell.

WLNY, “Former President Donald Trump Visits NYPD, FDNY On 9/11,” September 12, 2021, https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2021/09/12/donald-trump-9-11-nypd-fdny-visit/


  1. [1]WLNY, “Former President Donald Trump Visits NYPD, FDNY On 9/11,” September 12, 2021, https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2021/09/12/donald-trump-9-11-nypd-fdny-visit/
  2. [2]Karoun Demirjian, “Republicans say Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal plan is ‘dumber than dirt,’” Washington Post, April 13, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/republicans-afghanistan-biden/2021/04/13/7167a2f8-9c84-11eb-b7a8-014b14aeb9e4_story.html
  3. [3]Rick Perlstein, Invisible Bridge (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2014).
  4. [4]The U.S. has had military forces deployed in some sort of killing expedition in every calendar year since 1941: David Benfell, “Us-wars,” Google Drive, September 12, 2021, https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bdIfIobiH1A7NZItE3FUI6zy0oh-D6eCK64t__5wBO4/edit?usp=sharing
  5. [5]Larisa Brown et al., “Planes leaving half empty after Taliban set up ring of steel,” Times, August 19, 2021, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/planes-leaving-half-empty-after-taliban-set-up-ring-of-steel-6rdvp2wdb; Naomi Conrad, Masood Saifullah, and Birgitta Schülke-Gill, “In Kabul, terrified Afghans wait for the call to safety,” Deutschewelle, August 18, 2021, https://www.dw.com/en/in-kabul-terrified-afghans-wait-for-the-call-to-safety/a-58894365; Ben Doherty, Warren Murray, and agencies, “Afghanistan: reports emerge of Taliban beating Afghans seeking to flee Kabul,” Guardian, August 18, 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/18/afghanistan-reports-emerge-of-taliban-beating-afghans-seeking-to-flee-kabul; Charlie Faulkner and Ben Farmer, “Desperate Afghans plunge to deaths from departing US planes as Kabul airport overrun,” Telegraph, August 16, 2021, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/08/16/kabul-airport-chaos-thousands-overrun-tarmac-desperate-bid-escape/; Sayed Ziarmal Hashemi et al., “U.S. presses on with evacuations despite fears of more attacks,” Los Angeles Times, August 27, 2021, https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-08-27/evacuations-resume-after-kabul-airport-attack-bombings; Ellen Knickmeyer, Robert Burns, and Matthew Lee, “Biden to address chaotic Kabul evacuation amid criticism,” Associated Press, August 20, 2021, https://apnews.com/article/business-health-coronavirus-pandemic-kabul-taliban-d036db0b190acba68087f3d46ffae146; Kevin Liptak, “Biden decides to keep August 31 deadline to withdraw from Afghanistan as evacuations accelerate,” CNN, August 24, 2021, https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/24/politics/joe-biden-g7-afghanistan/index.html; Ezzatullah Mehrdad, Dan Lamothe, and Kareem Fahim, “Chaos persists at Kabul airport, imperiling Afghanistan evacuation effort,” Washington Post, August 19, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/airport-kabul-taliban-state-department-karzai/2021/08/19/5de79f4a-0105-11ec-87e0-7e07bd9ce270_story.html; Rachel Pannett et al., “Last U.S. military flight leaves Kabul; Biden to address nation Tuesday,” Washington Post, August 30, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/30/afghanistan-kabul-taliban-live-updates/; Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “U.S. Airlift From Kabul Gains Speed As Afghans Defy Taliban In Several Cities,” August 19, 2021, https://gandhara.rferl.org/a/taliban-blocking-airport-independence-day/31418029.html; Tim Shipman, “Tony Blair attacks Joe Biden’s ‘imbecilic’ Afghanistan retreat as Kabul chaos deepens,” Times, August 22, 2021, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tony-blair-attacks-joe-bidens-imbecilic-afghanistan-retreat-as-kabul-chaos-deepens-jw782ghxr; Barbara Starr et al., “ISIS terror threat forces US military to establish alternate routes to Kabul airport,” CNN, August 21, 2021, https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/21/politics/kabul-airport-terror-warning/index.html; Yaroslav Trofimov, “Afghanistan’s Taliban Seize Jalalabad as Panic Grips Kabul,” Wall Street Journal, August 15, 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghanistans-taliban-seize-jalalabad-as-panic-grips-kabul-11629005282; Yaroslav Trofimov, Dion Nissenbaum, and Margherita Stancati, “‘Saigon on Steroids’: The Desperate Rush to Flee Afghanistan,” Wall Street Journal, August 15, 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/saigon-on-steroids-the-desperate-rush-to-flee-afghanistan-11629071999; Yaroslav Trofimov, Nancy A. Youssef, and Sune Engel Rasmussen, “Kabul Airport Attack Kills 13 U.S. Service Members, at Least 90 Afghans,” Wall Street Journal, August 26, 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghanistan-kabul-airport-explosion-11629976397
  6. [6]Rick Perlstein, Invisible Bridge (New York: Simon and Schuster, 2014).

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