Month: February 2022

BA.2 might be a new variant, might be more dangerous, might be more contagious. Might.

benfell

COVID-19 Pandemic

Doctors and charlatans

I’m quoting the first three paragraphs from a CNN story, but this really doesn’t do it justice. Read the whole thing. Do not do what newspaper people expect you to do and only read the first few paragraphs. Read the whole fucking thing.

The BA.2 virus – a subvariant of the Omicron coronavirus variant – isn’t just spreading faster than its distant cousin, it may also cause more severe disease and appears capable of thwarting some of the key weapons we have against Covid-19, new research suggests.

New lab experiments from Japan show that BA.2 may have features that make it as capable of causing serious illness as older variants of Covid-19, including Delta.

And like Omicron, it appears to largely escape the immunity created by vaccines. A booster shot restores protection, making illness after infection about 74% less likely.[1]

Miriam Berger et al., “U.S.-Canada border crossing reopens after six-day blockade by ‘Freedom Convoy’ protesters,” Washington Post, February 14, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/13/canada-freedom-convoy-border-blockades-truckers/

Amanda Coletta et al., “Trudeau invokes Emergencies Act against Canada’s ‘Freedom Convoy’ trucker protest,” Washington Post, February 14, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/14/canada-ottawa-trucker-protests-bridge/

Paul Vieira and Kim Mackrael, “U.S.-Canada Bridge Reopens After Police Clear Protest,” Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/canadian-police-begin-to-clear-protesters-disrupting-cross-border-bridge-traffic-11644759497

Amol Rajan, “Novak Djokovic: I’m not anti-vax but will sacrifice trophies if told to get jab,” British Broadcasting Corporation, February 15, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60354068

Matthew Syed, “What Novak Djokovic revealed to me at lunch,” Times, February 16, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/matthew-syed-what-novak-djokovic-revealed-to-me-at-lunch-d85gv8jph

Ed Yong, “The Millions of People Stuck in Pandemic Limbo,” Atlantic, February 16, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/02/covid-pandemic-immunocompromised-risk-vaccines/622094/

Amanda Coletta et al., “Ottawa arrests two ‘Freedom Convoy’ protest organizers as police chief vows to ‘take back’ city,” Washington Post, February 17, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/17/canada-freedom-convoy-ottawa-protest/

Melody Schreiber, “US has suffered more than 1m excess deaths during pandemic, CDC finds,” Guardian, February 17, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/17/us-excess-deaths-pandemic-cdc

Oriana Gonzalez, “Canadian police arrest over 100 people in trucker protests,” Axios, February 18, 2022, https://www.axios.com/police-ottawa-arrest-trucker-protest-covid-vaccine-ed06ea8a-d2bc-4c3c-8c04-3054dca17c88.html

Jean Yi, “COVID-19 Isn’t Going Anywhere — And Americans Know It,” FiveThirtyEight, February 18, 2022, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/covid-19-isnt-going-anywhere-and-americans-know-it/

Brenda Goodman, “As BA.2 subvariant of Omicron rises, lab studies point to signs of severity,” CNN, February 19, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/17/health/ba-2-covid-severity/index.html

Miriam Berger, “Police regain control of most of Canada’s capital, say protesters will continue to be identified and charged as holdouts persist,” Washington Post, February 20, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/20/police-regain-control-most-canadas-capital-say-protesters-will-continue-be-identified-charged-holdouts-persist/

Ukraine

I share Anne Applebaum’s sense that we are betraying Ukraine, leaving it to face Russia alone.[2] The question of what to do about it, how, really, to stop Vladimir Putin, however, is much harder. I honestly doubt that any country has the stomach for war with Russia and even if it did, everything I’ve seen of war is that it fails. The U.S. doesn’t even know how to win a war; it hasn’t won one since World War I (World War II was won mostly by the Soviet Union), unless you count Grenada and Panama, which are nowhere near the scale that this would be. So we’d be shedding blood not to save Ukraine, but only to increase the bloodshed.

And even if our presence somehow deterred or stopped an invasion, how long would we have to stay there? How long would Russia continue to be a threat?

The problem with this thinking is precisely what David Barash and Charles Webel point to in Peace and Conflict Studies. They distinguish between a peace achieved through force and a peace achieved by resolving the causes of the conflict.[3] My question is whether, with Vladimir Putin and like-minded idiots in power in Russia, it is even possible to address those causes.

Anne Applebaum, “There Are No Chamberlains in This Story,” Atlantic, February 20, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/munich-security-conference-chamberlain/622872/

John Hudson and Missy Ryan, “U.S. claims Russia has list of Ukrainians ‘to be killed or sent to camps’ following a military occupation,” Washington Post, February 20, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/02/20/ukraine-russia-human-rights/

  1. [1]Brenda Goodman, “As BA.2 subvariant of Omicron rises, lab studies point to signs of severity,” CNN, February 19, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/17/health/ba-2-covid-severity/index.html↩
  2. [2]Anne Applebaum, “There Are No Chamberlains in This Story,” Atlantic, February 20, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/munich-security-conference-chamberlain/622872/↩
  3. [3]David P. Barash and Charles P. Webel, Peace and Conflict Studies (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 2002).↩

When belief ceases to matter

benfell

Ukraine

As violence increases around Russian-held areas of eastern Ukraine,[1] and the propaganda war intensifies, I’m thinking it is important to remember that sometimes, propaganda is not meant to be believed.

Do not misunderstand: The propagandist would certainly prefer that you believe their propaganda. But if indeed, Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine,[2] despite the Biden administration’s apparently skillful use of intelligence releases to counter Putin’s propaganda,[3] we may have reached the limits of that strategy.

Putin may now have decided to dispense with credibility in favor of pretense, to an impose a “truth” made authoritative through brute physical force. In the end, no one is prepared to stop him; rather they have all assured their domestic constituencies that they will not intervene militarily to stop Putin from invading.[4] And so, just as no one believes that Crimea is Russian territory, but Putin occupied and annexed it anyway, Putin may now do whatever it is he intends in the rest of Ukraine.

Ultimately, war reduces to a contest between elites over which of them will control which territories, and control the people and the resources within those territories. And violence reduces to brutal persuasion. From the rest of us, it is compliance that is required, not belief.

  1. [1]Julia Ioffe, “Putin’s Quasi War Begins,” Puck News, February 18, 2022, https://puck.news/putins-quasi-war-begins/; Reuters, “Ukraine says Russian-backed artillery strike hits kindergarten, no injuries,” February 17, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-backed-artillery-strike-hits-kindergarten-no-injuries-2022-02-17/↩
  2. [2]Maegan Vazquez et al., “Biden says he’s now convinced Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, but leaves door open for diplomacy,” CNN, February 18, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/18/politics/joe-biden-russia-ukraine/index.html↩
  3. [3]Jon Allsop, “The one person who knows what Putin is thinking,” Columbia Journalism Review, February 14, 2022, https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/putin_ukraine_state_media.php; Jon Allsop, “A week of whiplash and the need for cool heads over Russia and Ukraine,” Columbia Journalism Review, February 18, 2022, https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/russia_ukraine_invasion_whiplash.php; Julia Ioffe, “Putin on the Brink… of What, Exactly?” Puck News, February 15, 2022, https://puck.news/putin-on-the-brink/; Julia Ioffe, “Putin’s Quasi War Begins,” Puck News, February 18, 2022, https://puck.news/putins-quasi-war-begins/↩
  4. [4]Julia Ioffe, “Inside the Biden-Putin Chess Match,” Puck News, January 25, 2022, https://puck.news/inside-the-biden-putin-chess-match/; Andrew Roth and Julian Borger, “US says it will send troops to eastern Europe if Russia invades Ukraine,” Guardian, December 6, 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/06/us-says-it-will-send-troops-to-eastern-europe-if-russia-invades-ukraine; Nahal Toosi to Global Insider list, “A thin line between love and war,” Politico, February 14, 2022, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/global-insider/2022/02/14/a-thin-line-between-love-and-war-00008565↩

Thinking again about that Jeffrey Epstein conspiracy theory

benfell

Jeffrey Epstein

It’s getting awfully hard not to take the conspiracy theories a bit more seriously now. Jeffrey Epstein’s former pilot had named Bill Clinton, Donald Trump, Itzhak Perlman, Prince Andrew, Senator George Mitchell, Senator John Glenn, Kevin Spacey as passengers on Epstein’s plane, though he claimed not to have witnessed any sexual activity or signs of sexual activity.[1] Epstein himself is dead, by hanging in a prison cell.[2] Clinton is nearly certain to have had trouble keeping his pants zipped,[3] indeed likely to have raped at least one woman,[4] and is known to have had an extramarital affair with a White House intern[5] that cannot help but be tainted by an extreme difference in power. Prince Andrew just settled a lawsuit stemming from a rape that had occurred under Epstein’s auspices. That lawsuit may have been the last chance to expose Epstein’s secrets.[6] And now another Epstein associate has been found dead, by hanging, in a prison cell, likely eliminating yet another path to those secrets.[7]

The 75-year-old [Jean-Luc Brunel] was found dead in his cell at around 1 a.m. Saturday during an overnight check by guards at the Paris prison, prosecutors told Le Monde. Brunel was being held as part of an ongoing investigation into the alleged rape of minors and trafficking of minors for sexual exploitation. Several models had accused him of sexual assault and rape, and French police had interviewed many potential witnesses in the case. Brunel had denied the allegations.[8]

Sure, it’s all coincidence. But at some point, knowing that Epstein had so many powerful friends who visited him in places where women are known to have been trafficked, knowing that these are all people who have reputations to protect, knowing that none of these people will want to end up like Prince Andrew, one has to be an absolute sucker for believing that’s all it is.

Timothy Bella and Kelsey Ables, “Jean-Luc Brunel, Epstein associate accused of supplying girls to financier, is found hanged in prison,” Washington Post, February 19, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/02/19/jean-luc-brunel-hanged-epstein/

COVID-19 Pandemic

Doctors and charlatans

The idea that Americans are tired of the pandemic has become conventional wisdom, with important policy implications. Democratic governors in blue states like New Jersey and California have rolled back mask mandates, citing the importance of “normalcy.”[9]

As to be expected with FiveThirtyEight, the article from which the above lede is drawn relies heavily on polls which nowadays have ludicrously low[10] and absolutely invalidating response rates that are a generally unacknowledged factor in survey unreliability.[11] But the gist is that there’s no consensus on what a “return to normal” actually looks like.[12]

Leana Wen’s argument has been that we should relax restrictions now with a clear message that they may be reimposed as needed in the future,[13] but she fails to consider the plight and the dilemma immunocompromised people face.[14] That said, there is a reality that even as Canadian police clear the “Freedom Convoy” protests that have disrupted trade and made life generally intolerable for residents, and which oppose pandemic mitigation measures,[15] and even as so many people, both around the world and within the U.S., remain unvaccinated, enabling the rise of ever more variants,[16] it is increasingly clear that the Trumpists have won the pandemic.[17]

Over a million are already dead, both from COVID-19 itself and from an inability to access medical care from overwhelmed facilities.[18] We can be sure there will be more, probably many more.

Amanda Coletta et al., “Police prepare to clear ‘Freedom Convoy’ protesters on Ontario border bridge. Tear gas used on Champs-Élysées crowd,” Washington Post, February 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/12/canada-ottawa-trucker-protest-freedom-convoy/

Miguel Marquez, Jason Hanna, and Kim Berryman, “Canadian police begin attempt to clear protesters blocking Ambassador Bridge to US,” CNN, February 12, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/12/americas/canada-truckers-protests-covid-saturday/index.html

Kayla Tarnowski and Julio Cesar Chavez, “Key bridge to U.S. remains closed as Canada police clear protesters,” Reuters, February 13, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-protesters-police-deadlocked-tensions-simmer-blocked-border-bridge-2022-02-13/

Brian Wilk, “US Freedom Convoy met with support as they make stop in Erie,” YourErie.com, February 13, 2022, https://www.yourerie.com/news/local-news/us-freedom-convoy-met-with-support-as-they-make-stop-in-erie/

Miriam Berger et al., “U.S.-Canada border crossing reopens after six-day blockade by ‘Freedom Convoy’ protesters,” Washington Post, February 14, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/13/canada-freedom-convoy-border-blockades-truckers/

Amanda Coletta et al., “Trudeau invokes Emergencies Act against Canada’s ‘Freedom Convoy’ trucker protest,” Washington Post, February 14, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/14/canada-ottawa-trucker-protests-bridge/

Paul Vieira and Kim Mackrael, “U.S.-Canada Bridge Reopens After Police Clear Protest,” Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/canadian-police-begin-to-clear-protesters-disrupting-cross-border-bridge-traffic-11644759497

Amol Rajan, “Novak Djokovic: I’m not anti-vax but will sacrifice trophies if told to get jab,” British Broadcasting Corporation, February 15, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60354068

Matthew Syed, “What Novak Djokovic revealed to me at lunch,” Times, February 16, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/matthew-syed-what-novak-djokovic-revealed-to-me-at-lunch-d85gv8jph

Ed Yong, “The Millions of People Stuck in Pandemic Limbo,” Atlantic, February 16, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/02/covid-pandemic-immunocompromised-risk-vaccines/622094/

Amanda Coletta et al., “Ottawa arrests two ‘Freedom Convoy’ protest organizers as police chief vows to ‘take back’ city,” Washington Post, February 17, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/17/canada-freedom-convoy-ottawa-protest/

Melody Schreiber, “US has suffered more than 1m excess deaths during pandemic, CDC finds,” Guardian, February 17, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/17/us-excess-deaths-pandemic-cdc

Oriana Gonzalez, “Canadian police arrest over 100 people in trucker protests,” Axios, February 18, 2022, https://www.axios.com/police-ottawa-arrest-trucker-protest-covid-vaccine-ed06ea8a-d2bc-4c3c-8c04-3054dca17c88.html

Jean Yi, “COVID-19 Isn’t Going Anywhere — And Americans Know It,” FiveThirtyEight, February 18, 2022, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/covid-19-isnt-going-anywhere-and-americans-know-it/

  1. [1]Lauren del Valle and Eric Levenson, “Jeffrey Epstein’s former pilot testifies Bill Clinton, Donald Trump, Prince Andrew flew aboard Epstein’s private plane,” CNN, November 30, 2021, https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/30/us/ghislaine-maxwell-pilot/index.html↩
  2. [2]Morgan Krakow, Hannah Knowles, and Marisa Iati, “‘We need answers. Lots of them.’ What’s known and what’s next after Jeffrey Epstein’s death,” Washington Post, August 10, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/08/10/we-need-answers-lots-them-whats-known-whats-next-after-jeffrey-epsteins-death/; Matt Zapotosky et al., “Jeffrey Epstein dead after ‘apparent suicide’ in New York,” Washington Post, August 10, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/jeffrey-epstein-kills-himself-in-jail-according-to-media-reports/2019/08/10/a3d48862-bb73-11e9-b3b4-2bb69e8c4e39_story.html↩
  3. [3]David Benfell, “Yes, Hillary Clinton must answer for Bill Clinton’s sexual assaults,” Not Housebroken, October 10, 2016, https://disunitedstates.org/2016/10/10/yes-hillary-clinton-must-answer-for-bill-clintons-sexual-assaults/; Shawn Boburg, “Enabler or family defender? How Hillary Clinton responded to husband’s accusers,” Washington Post, September 28, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/enabler-or-family-defender-how-hillary-clinton-responded-to-husbands-accusers/2016/09/28/58dad5d4-6fb1-11e6-8533-6b0b0ded0253_story.html; Amy Chozick, “’90s Scandals Threaten to Erode Hillary Clinton’s Strength With Women,” New York Times, January 20, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/21/us/politics/90s-scandals-threaten-to-erode-hillary-clintons-strength-with-women.html; Maureen Dowd, “When Hillary Clinton Killed Feminism,” New York Times, February 13, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/14/opinion/sunday/when-hillary-clinton-killed-feminism.html; Liza Featherstone, “Hillary Clinton’s Faux Feminism,” Truthout, February 28, 2016, http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/35006-hillary-clinton-s-faux-feminism↩
  4. [4]Dylan Matthews, “Juanita Broaddrick’s case against Hillary Clinton, explained,” Vox, October 9, 2016, http://www.vox.com/2016/10/9/13221340/juanita-broaddrick-hillary-clinton-rape↩
  5. [5]Douglas O. Linder, “The Impeachment Trial of President William Clinton,” University of Missouri, Kansas City, 2005, http://law2.umkc.edu/faculty/projects/ftrials/clinton/clintontrialaccount.html; Rutgers University, “The Impeachment of President Clinton,” n.d., copy in possession of author↩
  6. [6]Shayna Jacobs, “Prince Andrew settles with U.S. woman who says she was trafficked to him by Jeffrey Epstein,” Washington Post, February 15, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/02/15/andrew-giuffre-settlement-epstein/; Choire Sicha, “The Last Chance to Learn Jeffrey Epstein’s Secrets Closes,” New York, February 15, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/02/jeffrey-epstein-prince-andrew.html; Will Pavia, “Prince Andrew’s payout to Virginia Giuffre ‘is worth its weight in gold’ for Queen,” Times, February 16, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-and-virginia-giuffre-agree-settlement-in-sexual-abuse-case-q257kth5m↩
  7. [7]Timothy Bella and Kelsey Ables, “Jean-Luc Brunel, Epstein associate accused of supplying girls to financier, is found hanged in prison,” Washington Post, February 19, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/02/19/jean-luc-brunel-hanged-epstein/↩
  8. [8]Timothy Bella and Kelsey Ables, “Jean-Luc Brunel, Epstein associate accused of supplying girls to financier, is found hanged in prison,” Washington Post, February 19, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/02/19/jean-luc-brunel-hanged-epstein/↩
  9. [9]Jean Yi, “COVID-19 Isn’t Going Anywhere — And Americans Know It,” FiveThirtyEight, February 18, 2022, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/covid-19-isnt-going-anywhere-and-americans-know-it/↩
  10. [10]Courtney Kennedy and Hannah Hartig, “Response rates in telephone surveys have resumed their decline,” Pew Research Center, February 27, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/27/response-rates-in-telephone-surveys-have-resumed-their-decline/; Steven Shepard, “Report: Phone polls aren’t dead yet,” Politico, May 15, 2017, https://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/15/pollsters-phone-polls-238409↩
  11. [11]Dan Balz, “2020 presidential polls suffered worst performance in decades, report says,” Washington Post, July 18, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020-poll-errors/2021/07/18/8d6a9838-e7df-11eb-ba5d-55d3b5ffcaf1_story.html; David Byler, “Polling is broken. No one knows how to fix it,” Washington Post, July 22, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/07/22/polling-is-broken-no-one-knows-how-fix-it/; Mona Chalabi, “The pollsters were wrong – again. Here’s what we know so far,” Guardian, November 4, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/commentisfree/2020/nov/04/the-pollsters-were-wrong-again-heres-what-we-know-so-far; David A. Graham, “The Polling Crisis Is a Catastrophe for American Democracy,” Atlantic, November 4, 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/polling-catastrophe/616986/; Steven Shepard, “Dem pollsters acknowledge ‘major errors’ in 2020 polling,” Politico, April 13, 2021, https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/13/dems-polling-failure-481044↩
  12. [12]Jean Yi, “COVID-19 Isn’t Going Anywhere — And Americans Know It,” FiveThirtyEight, February 18, 2022, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/covid-19-isnt-going-anywhere-and-americans-know-it/↩
  13. [13]Leana S. Wen, “Yes, more variants may emerge in the future. That’s why we should lift restrictions now,” Washington Post, February 1, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/01/yes-more-variants-may-emerge-future-thats-why-we-should-lift-restrictions-now/↩
  14. [14]Ed Yong, “The Millions of People Stuck in Pandemic Limbo,” Atlantic, February 16, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/02/covid-pandemic-immunocompromised-risk-vaccines/622094/↩
  15. [15]Miriam Berger et al., “U.S.-Canada border crossing reopens after six-day blockade by ‘Freedom Convoy’ protesters,” Washington Post, February 14, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/13/canada-freedom-convoy-border-blockades-truckers/; Amanda Coletta et al., “Trudeau invokes Emergencies Act against Canada’s ‘Freedom Convoy’ trucker protest,” Washington Post, February 14, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/14/canada-ottawa-trucker-protests-bridge/; Oriana Gonzalez, “Canadian police arrest over 100 people in trucker protests,” Axios, February 18, 2022, https://www.axios.com/police-ottawa-arrest-trucker-protest-covid-vaccine-ed06ea8a-d2bc-4c3c-8c04-3054dca17c88.html; Paul Vieira and Kim Mackrael, “U.S.-Canada Bridge Reopens After Police Clear Protest,” Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/canadian-police-begin-to-clear-protesters-disrupting-cross-border-bridge-traffic-11644759497↩
  16. [16]David Benfell, “The lethal dishonesty of ‘intellectual property’ in a pandemic,” Not Housebroken, November 30, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/03/21/the-lethal-dishonesty-of-intellectual-property-in-a-pandemic/↩
  17. [17]David Benfell, “Racing to one million dead from COVID-19 in the U.S.,” Not Housebroken, February 6, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/02/05/racing-to-one-million-dead-from-covid-19-in-the-u-s/↩
  18. [18]Melody Schreiber, “US has suffered more than 1m excess deaths during pandemic, CDC finds,” Guardian, February 17, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/17/us-excess-deaths-pandemic-cdc↩

We just won’t stop with the bullshit

benfell

COVID-19 Pandemic

Doctors and charlatans

There have been over one million ‘excess deaths’ in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic. “The deaths are mainly attributable to Covid-19, as well as conditions that may have resulted from delayed medical care and overwhelmed health systems.”[1] People are dying, but we just won’t stop with the bullshit.

Leyland Cecco, “Protesters defy order to clear bridge connecting Canada and US,” Guardian, February 11, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/12/protesters-defy-order-to-clear-bridge-connecting-canada-and-us

Amanda Coletta et al., “Police prepare to clear ‘Freedom Convoy’ protesters on Ontario border bridge. Tear gas used on Champs-Élysées crowd,” Washington Post, February 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/12/canada-ottawa-trucker-protest-freedom-convoy/

Miguel Marquez, Jason Hanna, and Kim Berryman, “Canadian police begin attempt to clear protesters blocking Ambassador Bridge to US,” CNN, February 12, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/12/americas/canada-truckers-protests-covid-saturday/index.html

Kayla Tarnowski and Julio Cesar Chavez, “Key bridge to U.S. remains closed as Canada police clear protesters,” Reuters, February 13, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-protesters-police-deadlocked-tensions-simmer-blocked-border-bridge-2022-02-13/

Brian Wilk, “US Freedom Convoy met with support as they make stop in Erie,” YourErie.com, February 13, 2022, https://www.yourerie.com/news/local-news/us-freedom-convoy-met-with-support-as-they-make-stop-in-erie/

Miriam Berger et al., “U.S.-Canada border crossing reopens after six-day blockade by ‘Freedom Convoy’ protesters,” Washington Post, February 14, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/13/canada-freedom-convoy-border-blockades-truckers/

Amanda Coletta et al., “Trudeau invokes Emergencies Act against Canada’s ‘Freedom Convoy’ trucker protest,” Washington Post, February 14, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/14/canada-ottawa-trucker-protests-bridge/

Paul Vieira and Kim Mackrael, “U.S.-Canada Bridge Reopens After Police Clear Protest,” Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/canadian-police-begin-to-clear-protesters-disrupting-cross-border-bridge-traffic-11644759497

Amol Rajan, “Novak Djokovic: I’m not anti-vax but will sacrifice trophies if told to get jab,” British Broadcasting Corporation, February 15, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60354068

Matthew Syed, “What Novak Djokovic revealed to me at lunch,” Times, February 16, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/matthew-syed-what-novak-djokovic-revealed-to-me-at-lunch-d85gv8jph

Ed Yong, “The Millions of People Stuck in Pandemic Limbo,” Atlantic, February 16, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/02/covid-pandemic-immunocompromised-risk-vaccines/622094/

Amanda Coletta et al., “Ottawa arrests two ‘Freedom Convoy’ protest organizers as police chief vows to ‘take back’ city,” Washington Post, February 17, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/17/canada-freedom-convoy-ottawa-protest/

Melody Schreiber, “US has suffered more than 1m excess deaths during pandemic, CDC finds,” Guardian, February 17, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/17/us-excess-deaths-pandemic-cdc

Oriana Gonzalez, “Canadian police arrest over 100 people in trucker protests,” Axios, February 18, 2022, https://www.axios.com/police-ottawa-arrest-trucker-protest-covid-vaccine-ed06ea8a-d2bc-4c3c-8c04-3054dca17c88.html

Ukraine

With the caveat that you can’t rule anything out when Putin is involved and that the most pessimistic prediction is usually the right one, I have to say that I think an invasion is less likely now than it was a month ago. And not because of what Putin said on Tuesday. Yes, militarily speaking, Russia is far more prepared for an invasion today than it was then, but politically, there is much less reason now for Putin to give the order to invade than there was a month ago.[2]

That’s Julia Ioffe, three days ago, in an article in which she reiterates that this is a propaganda war and, so far, Joe Biden’s strategy seems to be working.[3] The cute part of that is that Biden’s strategy will indeed seem to be working until, brutally, it isn’t.

CNN this evening seems less canny, stenographically reporting the latest that Biden believes Vladimir Putin has decided to invade.[4] If, however, on that day three days ago, Ioffe was very guardedly optimistic that war seemed less probable,[5] today, we’re back to pessimism:

By Friday, things had escalated to the point where war—or something uncomfortably close to it—seemed inevitable. The Kremlin announced that Vladimir Putin, accompanied by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, would oversee military exercises that would include the firing of ballistic and cruise missiles on Saturday. The head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) told its residents to evacuate the area and flee to Russia because, he claimed, Ukrainian president Volodymir Zelensky had ordered an invasion. The Ukrainian government spent the day denying those claims.[6]

Ioffe proceeds by comparing “the development of this conflict and the beginning of the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia.” She has a lot of data points. She now is also buying the Biden administration line, writing that

Over the last few weeks, the Biden administration has made a number of intelligence disclosures, aiming to preempt, expose, or disrupt various Russian plans. By Friday, it was clear that almost all of them have checked out.[7]

Again, she’s got an itemized list of revelations.[8]

Remember that deception takes multiple forms. There is the form where you’re out and out lying. But there’s also the form where you’re withholding truth. To the extent Ioffe is right, the Biden administration may still be guilty of the latter, even as we can be certain the Russians are guilty of the former. Because it’s “classified,” I wouldn’t expect to ever learn how much or what, really, the Biden administration is holding back.

And of course, we can’t asess how correctly intelligence agencies are interpreting what they’re not telling us.

I’m not sure who put this text right under the title—it is not, strictly speaking, part of the article—on Ioffe’s latest:

Are we witnessing the outbreak of war in Ukraine? It certainly looks that way. But as with everything involving Putin, nothing is as it seems.[9]

The latter part of that is a point she really doesn’t develop.

Y’all know I have enormous respect for Ioffe, but the truth remains that, because this is a propaganda war, we won’t know whether Vladimir Putin will invade until 1) the invasion actually happens, or 2) the Russian troops have withdrawn to barracks. Until then, I honestly don’t know how you keep breathing when you’re submerged in bullshit this deep.

Anthony Faiola, “How joining NATO and the E.U. became Ukraine’s unattainable dream,” Washington Post, February 17, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/02/17/ukraine-nato-eu-european-union-membership/

Reuters, “Ukraine says Russian-backed artillery strike hits kindergarten, no injuries,” February 17, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-backed-artillery-strike-hits-kindergarten-no-injuries-2022-02-17/

Ann M. Simmons, Yaroslav Trofimov, and William Mauldin, “Russia Accuses Ukrainian Military of ‘Crimes’ in Report to U.N.,” Wall Street Journal, February 17, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-pro-russia-separatists-trade-allegations-of-cease-fire-violations-11645091832

Jon Allsop, “A week of whiplash and the need for cool heads over Russia and Ukraine,” Columbia Journalism Review, February 18, 2022, https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/russia_ukraine_invasion_whiplash.php

Julia Ioffe, “Putin’s Quasi War Begins,” Puck News, February 18, 2022, https://puck.news/putins-quasi-war-begins/

Maegan Vazquez et al., “Biden says he’s now convinced Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, but leaves door open for diplomacy,” CNN, February 18, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/18/politics/joe-biden-russia-ukraine/index.html

Fossil fuels

Northeast

Reid Frazier, “Drilling legacy left Pa. full of possibly harmful old oil and gas wells. There’s new hope for cleanup to get a jump-start,” National Public Radio, February 17, 2022, https://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/2022/02/17/drilling-legacy-left-pa-full-of-possibly-harmful-old-oil-and-gas-wells-theres-new-hope-a-solution-is-in-sight/

Pittsburgh

Infrastructure

If this bridge is what I think it is, that apparently they don’t know when they’re going to fix,[10] it passes over what Pittsburgh calls a busway, which is a right of way built specifically to accommodate public transportation and which private cars (I see white supremacist gangsters pulling on and off of them all the time) are forbidden to use. I’m pretty constantly guessing where exactly they go from the parts I see, but I think this is the busway that runs out to Swissvale, so a collapse of this bridge would impact service at least out that far and I’m guessing extending at least to McKeesport and maybe Trafford, just across Turtle Creek into Westmoreland County.

It would also make a mess of Shadyside traffic. Not very many streets cross that busway, which runs below street level, so traffic would be forced to re-route onto other bridges.

Another bridge that crosses Saw Mill Run Road (Pennsylvania Route 51) that is itself part of a busway has been closed—I didn’t pick this up at the time—apparently due to winter damage.[11] I’m a little perplexed about this one: If they’re worried this bridge will collapse, why are they parking heavy vehicles on it?

I’ve actually driven part way onto one of these busways myself, but only after a great deal of hesitation. The Pennsylvanian, an elegant-looking old hotel—at least that’s what I think it is—by the Amtrak station and across Liberty Avenue from the Greyhound station, which I understand has been converted to convention space and apartments, is accessible principally off the beginning of the right of way, marked prominently with “Do Not Enter” signs and “Buses Only” signs. I had to be assured that it was legal for me to do so, and apparently despite the very intimidating signage, private cars are allowed far enough in to access the Pennsylvanian’s driveway. (There are normally a number of private cars parked along that driveway.)

Julia Felton, “Pittsburgh’s poorly rated South Negley Avenue Bridge slated for repairs,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, February 18, 2022, https://triblive.com/local/pittsburghs-poorly-rated-south-negley-avenue-bridge-slated-for-repairs/

Donald Trump

Finances

George Conway, III, explains[12] why two related developments, the Mazars disavowing their work for the Trump Organization[13] and a judge’s ruling that Donald Trump and his offspring must submit to a deposition,[14] might finally spell financial ruin for Trump[15] of a sort that I don’t see how bankruptcy can help. Conway closes, writing,

Stay tuned. Could this be, at long last, the beginning of the end for Trump?

As always, don’t bet on it — but this time, don’t be surprised if it is.[16]

I’m sorry to say that I think Conway’s caution is warranted. It’s not like it’s any surprise that Trump is a lousy businessman, regardless of how his adoring fans perceive him. Indeed, what probably most people would call setbacks, even severe setbacks, only reinforce his fans’ perceptions.[17] And Trump only needs to stall a legal system that is already prone to interminable delay until probably, as a practical matter, November 2024. Conway’s argument, though, is that this isn’t like previous setbacks for Trump, who will have to find competent lawyers and accountants who are willing to bless probable fraud.[18]

Dominic Rushe, “Trump Organization’s accountants cut ties, calling years of filings unreliable,” Guardian, February 14, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/14/donald-trump-organization-accountants-mazars-cut-ties

Tierney Sneed and Kara Scannell, “Trump and his children may be deposed by New York attorney general, judge rules,” CNN, February 17, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/17/politics/trump-subpoena-james-new-york-lawsuit/index.html

George T. Conway, III, “Trump’s luck may finally be running out,” Washington Post, February 18, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/18/george-conway-trump-mazars/

Coup attempt

Farnoush Amiri, “National Archives: Trump took classified items to Mar-a-Lago,” Associated Press, February 19, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-mar-a-lago-national-security-9c1f6dca7e3e8073ee029604c8253a5c

Colleen Long, “Judge rejects effort by Trump to toss Jan. 6 lawsuits,” Associated Press, February 19, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/capitol-siege-lawsuits-donald-trump-48fef5775a0043339fb38aa84ad419be

  1. [1]Melody Schreiber, “US has suffered more than 1m excess deaths during pandemic, CDC finds,” Guardian, February 17, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/17/us-excess-deaths-pandemic-cdc↩
  2. [2]Julia Ioffe, “Putin on the Brink… of What, Exactly?” Puck News, February 15, 2022, https://puck.news/putin-on-the-brink/↩
  3. [3]Julia Ioffe, “Putin on the Brink… of What, Exactly?” Puck News, February 15, 2022, https://puck.news/putin-on-the-brink/↩
  4. [4]Maegan Vazquez et al., “Biden says he’s now convinced Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, but leaves door open for diplomacy,” CNN, February 18, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/18/politics/joe-biden-russia-ukraine/index.html↩
  5. [5]Julia Ioffe, “Putin on the Brink… of What, Exactly?” Puck News, February 15, 2022, https://puck.news/putin-on-the-brink/↩
  6. [6]Julia Ioffe, “Putin’s Quasi War Begins,” Puck News, February 18, 2022, https://puck.news/putins-quasi-war-begins/↩
  7. [7]Julia Ioffe, “Putin’s Quasi War Begins,” Puck News, February 18, 2022, https://puck.news/putins-quasi-war-begins/↩
  8. [8]Julia Ioffe, “Putin’s Quasi War Begins,” Puck News, February 18, 2022, https://puck.news/putins-quasi-war-begins/↩
  9. [9]Julia Ioffe, “Putin’s Quasi War Begins,” Puck News, February 18, 2022, https://puck.news/putins-quasi-war-begins/↩
  10. [10]Julia Felton, “Pittsburgh’s poorly rated South Negley Avenue Bridge slated for repairs,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, February 18, 2022, https://triblive.com/local/pittsburghs-poorly-rated-south-negley-avenue-bridge-slated-for-repairs/↩
  11. [11]WTAE, “Port Authority closes bridge that carries South Busway after portion of bridge shifts,” February 7, 2022, https://www.wtae.com/article/port-authority-closes-bridge-that-carries-south-busway-in-mt-washington-after-portion-of-bridge-shifts/38987895↩
  12. [12]George T. Conway, III, “Trump’s luck may finally be running out,” Washington Post, February 18, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/18/george-conway-trump-mazars/↩
  13. [13]Dominic Rushe, “Trump Organization’s accountants cut ties, calling years of filings unreliable,” Guardian, February 14, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/14/donald-trump-organization-accountants-mazars-cut-ties↩
  14. [14]Tierney Sneed and Kara Scannell, “Trump and his children may be deposed by New York attorney general, judge rules,” CNN, February 17, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/17/politics/trump-subpoena-james-new-york-lawsuit/index.html↩
  15. [15]George T. Conway, III, “Trump’s luck may finally be running out,” Washington Post, February 18, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/18/george-conway-trump-mazars/↩
  16. [16]George T. Conway, III, “Trump’s luck may finally be running out,” Washington Post, February 18, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/18/george-conway-trump-mazars/↩
  17. [17]George T. Conway, III, “Trump’s luck may finally be running out,” Washington Post, February 18, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/18/george-conway-trump-mazars/; Bess Levin, “G.O.P. Voters Think Losing $1 Billion Makes Someone (Trump) a Good Businessman,” Vanity Fair, May 15, 2019, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/05/republicans-still-think-trump-was-a-successful-businessman; Walter Shapiro, “The Worst Businessman in America,” New Republic, May 8, 2019, https://newrepublic.com/article/153855/trump-tax-returns-worst-businessman-america↩
  18. [18]George T. Conway, III, “Trump’s luck may finally be running out,” Washington Post, February 18, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/18/george-conway-trump-mazars/↩

Futility when actual human beings are at risk

benfell

There is a new blog post entitled, “The vulnerability of Uber and Lyft driving.”

Ukraine

A week is a long time in the news business but a short time in the sweep of history; the incessant warnings of imminent Russian invasion may start to feel, well, not very imminent, but we’re talking about a timeframe of weeks so far, if not days. The risk of war is clearly very high and should not be downplayed. Just as reporters must rigorously interrogate US intelligence claims about an imminent attack, as I’ve written here already in recent weeks, they must also interrogate the less alarmed stances of various European powers and Ukraine itself, and not simply present these counterclaims as evidence against each other. Every player here has its own diplomatic and economic interests to protect. (In decrying hysterical Western coverage this week, [David] Arakhamia, the [Volodymyr] Zelensky ally, claimed that it was costing his country two to three billion dollars a month, in part by making borrowing harder.)[1]

The problem of dealing in bullshit, which is being dished out on all sides, is that, in the end, it is still bullshit. You still don’t know what the fuck is going on. And in this case, it really sucks because there are, lest we forget, actual human beings who will be on the receiving end of a Russian invasion if it occurs.

Jon Allsop, “A week of whiplash and the need for cool heads over Russia and Ukraine,” Columbia Journalism Review, February 18, 2022, https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/russia_ukraine_invasion_whiplash.php

  1. [1]Jon Allsop, “A week of whiplash and the need for cool heads over Russia and Ukraine,” Columbia Journalism Review, February 18, 2022, https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/russia_ukraine_invasion_whiplash.php↩

Stallin’, stallin’, stallin’, keep those court cases stallin’

benfell

Donald Trump

Finances

On several occasions throughout a two-hour hearing Thursday morning and in his ruling, the judge expressed skepticism toward the Trumps’ arguments that sitting for testimony in the civil investigation [by Attorney General Letitia James] would undermine their constitutional rights. . . .

Ronald Fischetti, attorney for former President Donald Trump, told CNN after the ruling came down that he will appeal the decision and seek a stay of the order.[1]

The judge obviously didn’t think much of the Trumps’ arguments and ruled the same day.[2] But of course, these are the very sort of asinine arguments we’ve come to expect of Donald Trump and his supporters.[3] The idea can’t be to actually win a case on the merits, but to stall—and I’m sure I’m not the first to observe that—on a desperate hope that some other lucky break intervenes.

Tierney Sneed and Kara Scannell, “Trump and his children may be deposed by New York attorney general, judge rules,” CNN, February 17, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/17/politics/trump-subpoena-james-new-york-lawsuit/index.html

Police White supremacist gangs

My generalization of police as white supremacist gangsters[4] is not at issue in decades of evidence that some deputies in the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department have formed gangs that engage in “aggressive policing,” and in a choice of some Los Angeles area politicians to refer to “deputy gangs,”[5] but I’m sure the complicity of these gangsters in adamantly refusing any accountability for misconduct whatsoever surely is.[6]

I am also wondering under what authority “Los Angeles County Sheriff Alex Villanueva sent a cease-and-desist letter this week to the Board of Supervisors, demanding they and others stop using the phrase ‘deputy gangs’ to refer to secretive groups that operate within department stations.”[7] I would say first, that he seems to have forgotten whom he works for; and second, that if he objects to the characterization, he should take action to root out these gangs which are apparently well documented.[8]

That Villanueva instead prefers to whine suggests that he, too, is complicit and should be removed from office for misconduct. And it should go without saying that the Department of Justice should be investigating the Sheriff’s Department for organized criminal activity.

Julia Felton, “Pittsburgh activists, officials hope legislation will end ‘systemic racism’ in traffic stops,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, February 16, 2022, https://triblive.com/local/pittsburgh-activists-officials-hope-legislation-will-end-systemic-racism-in-traffic-stops/

Alene Tchekmedyian, “Sheriff Villanueva demands L.A. County leaders stop using term ‘deputy gangs,’” Los Angeles Times, February 17, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-02-17/sheriff-villanueva-deputy-gangs-cease-and-desist-county-supervisors

COVID-19 Pandemic

Doctors and charlatans

There is a new blog post entitled, “The immunocompromised will be right to be terrified.”

British Broadcasting Corporation, “Covid: Trucker protests may hit Super Bowl, US security agency says,” February 10, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60338090

Leyland Cecco, “Protesters defy order to clear bridge connecting Canada and US,” Guardian, February 11, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/12/protesters-defy-order-to-clear-bridge-connecting-canada-and-us

Amanda Coletta et al., “Police prepare to clear ‘Freedom Convoy’ protesters on Ontario border bridge. Tear gas used on Champs-Élysées crowd,” Washington Post, February 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/12/canada-ottawa-trucker-protest-freedom-convoy/

Miguel Marquez, Jason Hanna, and Kim Berryman, “Canadian police begin attempt to clear protesters blocking Ambassador Bridge to US,” CNN, February 12, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/12/americas/canada-truckers-protests-covid-saturday/index.html

Kayla Tarnowski and Julio Cesar Chavez, “Key bridge to U.S. remains closed as Canada police clear protesters,” Reuters, February 13, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-protesters-police-deadlocked-tensions-simmer-blocked-border-bridge-2022-02-13/

Brian Wilk, “US Freedom Convoy met with support as they make stop in Erie,” YourErie.com, February 13, 2022, https://www.yourerie.com/news/local-news/us-freedom-convoy-met-with-support-as-they-make-stop-in-erie/

Miriam Berger et al., “U.S.-Canada border crossing reopens after six-day blockade by ‘Freedom Convoy’ protesters,” Washington Post, February 14, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/13/canada-freedom-convoy-border-blockades-truckers/

Amanda Coletta et al., “Trudeau invokes Emergencies Act against Canada’s ‘Freedom Convoy’ trucker protest,” Washington Post, February 14, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/14/canada-ottawa-trucker-protests-bridge/

Paul Vieira and Kim Mackrael, “U.S.-Canada Bridge Reopens After Police Clear Protest,” Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/canadian-police-begin-to-clear-protesters-disrupting-cross-border-bridge-traffic-11644759497

Amol Rajan, “Novak Djokovic: I’m not anti-vax but will sacrifice trophies if told to get jab,” British Broadcasting Corporation, February 15, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60354068

Matthew Syed, “What Novak Djokovic revealed to me at lunch,” Times, February 16, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/matthew-syed-what-novak-djokovic-revealed-to-me-at-lunch-d85gv8jph

Ed Yong, “The Millions of People Stuck in Pandemic Limbo,” Atlantic, February 16, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/02/covid-pandemic-immunocompromised-risk-vaccines/622094/

Miriam Berger et al., “Ottawa police presence grows as chief vows to ‘take back’ city from ‘Freedom Convoy’ protesters,” Washington Post, February 17, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/17/canada-freedom-convoy-ottawa-protest/

  1. [1]Tierney Sneed and Kara Scannell, “Trump and his children may be deposed by New York attorney general, judge rules,” CNN, February 17, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/17/politics/trump-subpoena-james-new-york-lawsuit/index.html↩
  2. [2]Tierney Sneed and Kara Scannell, “Trump and his children may be deposed by New York attorney general, judge rules,” CNN, February 17, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/17/politics/trump-subpoena-james-new-york-lawsuit/index.html↩
  3. [3]Kim Bellware and John Wagner, “Letter from 1,500 attorneys says Trump campaign lawyers don’t have ‘license to lie,’” Washington Post, December 8, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/12/08/trump-lawyer-letter/; Kyle Cheney, “Gohmert suit may force Pence’s hand in effort to overturn Trump’s defeat,” Politico, December 28, 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/28/gohmert-suit-pence-overturn-trumps-defeat-451485; Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein, “Trump sought to tap Sidney Powell as special counsel for election fraud,” Politico, December 20, 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/19/sidney-powell-trump-special-counsel-448694; Marjorie Cohn, “Trump’s Frivolous Lawsuits Are the Tip of the Iceberg in His Refusal to Concede,” Truthout, November 11, 2020, https://truthout.org/articles/trumps-frivolous-lawsuits-are-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-in-his-refusal-to-concede/; Pam Fessler, “Led By Giuliani, Trump Campaign Effort To Stop Certification Falters In Pennsylvania,” National Public Radio, November 17, 2020, https://www.npr.org/2020/11/17/936027693/led-by-giuliani-trump-campaign-effort-to-stop-certification-falters-in-pennsylva; Josh Gerstein, “Trump campaign revises Pennsylvania suit, again,” Politico, November 18, 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/18/trump-pennsylvania-election-lawsuit-437996; Josh Gerstein, “Lawyers retreat from pro-Trump election suit,” Politico, July 12, 2021, https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/12/lawyers-pro-trump-suit-499252; Simon Lewis, “Trump unveils $207 million fundraising haul after election in effort to overturn result,” Reuters, December 3, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-fundraising/trump-unveils-207-million-fundraising-haul-after-election-in-effort-to-overturn-result-idUSKBN28E012; Hannah Rabinowitz and Holmes Lybrand, “Al Gore ‘was a man’ about his election loss, unlike Trump, federal judge says,” CNN, November 22, 2021, https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/22/politics/al-gore-trump-election-capitol-riot/index.html; Aram Roston and Brad Heath, “Trump campaign spent more than $2 million on election lawyers, including Jenna Ellis,” Reuters, December 4, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-election-trump-expenses/trump-campaign-spent-more-than-2-million-on-election-lawyers-including-jenna-ellis-idUSKBN28E2VG; Philip Rucker, Amy Gardner, and Josh Dawsey, “Trump uses power of presidency to try to overturn the election and stay in office,” Washington Post, November 19, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-uses-power-of-presidency-to-try-to-overturn-the-election-and-stay-in-office/2020/11/19/bc89caa6-2a9f-11eb-8fa2-06e7cbb145c0_story.html; Stephanie Saul, “Lindsey Graham’s Long-Shot Mission to Unravel the Election Results,” New York Times, November 17, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/us/politics/lindsey-graham-georgia-trump-biden.html; Felicia Sonmez et al., “A frustrated Trump redoubles efforts to challenge election result,” Washington Post, December 20, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/tuberville-electoral-challenge-trump-conversation/2020/12/20/1658573e-42db-11eb-b0e4-0f182923a025_story.html; Paula Reed Ward, “Federal judge to consider whether to dismiss case filed by Trump campaign in Pa.,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, November 17, 2020, https://triblive.com/local/federal-judge-to-consider-whether-to-dismiss-case-filed-by-trump-campaign-in-pa/↩
  4. [4]David Benfell, “Stephen Zappala’s resignation would be nowhere near enough,” Not Housebroken, January 4, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/06/03/stephen-zappalas-resignation-would-be-nowhere-near-enough/↩
  5. [5]Alene Tchekmedyian, “Sheriff Villanueva demands L.A. County leaders stop using term ‘deputy gangs,’” Los Angeles Times, February 17, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-02-17/sheriff-villanueva-deputy-gangs-cease-and-desist-county-supervisors↩
  6. [6]David Benfell, “Stephen Zappala’s resignation would be nowhere near enough,” Not Housebroken, January 4, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/06/03/stephen-zappalas-resignation-would-be-nowhere-near-enough/↩
  7. [7]Alene Tchekmedyian, “Sheriff Villanueva demands L.A. County leaders stop using term ‘deputy gangs,’” Los Angeles Times, February 17, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-02-17/sheriff-villanueva-deputy-gangs-cease-and-desist-county-supervisors↩
  8. [8]Alene Tchekmedyian, “Sheriff Villanueva demands L.A. County leaders stop using term ‘deputy gangs,’” Los Angeles Times, February 17, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-02-17/sheriff-villanueva-deputy-gangs-cease-and-desist-county-supervisors↩

Another stinking plant to close

benfell

Fossil fuels

Appalachia region

I drive past this plant that’s closing on the way to my storage locker and I know this is going to be a real shock to you all, but it stinks. It really stinks. Follansbee is not a large town. They’re losing 280 jobs. But they’re hoping to emulate Pittsburgh which, they imagine, apparently because they haven’t actually visited Pittsburgh, has recovered from the loss of the steel industry.[1]

All that said, the plant doesn’t appear nearly so decrepit as the U.S. Steel facilities in Braddock and Clairton. One possibility is that somebody (who?) else might buy and operate the plant.[2]

Tyler Madden, “Follansbee leaders ponder next steps after learning of coke plant closure,” WTOV, February 14, 2022, https://wtov9.com/news/local/follansbee-leaders-ponder-next-steps-after-learning-of-coke-plant-closure

Ukraine

Anthony Faiola, “How joining NATO and the E.U. became Ukraine’s unattainable dream,” Washington Post, February 17, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/02/17/ukraine-nato-eu-european-union-membership/

Reuters, “Ukraine says Russian-backed artillery strike hits kindergarten, no injuries,” February 17, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-russian-backed-artillery-strike-hits-kindergarten-no-injuries-2022-02-17/

Ann M. Simmons, Yaroslav Trofimov, and William Mauldin, “Russia Accuses Ukrainian Military of ‘Crimes’ in Report to U.N.,” Wall Street Journal, February 17, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-pro-russia-separatists-trade-allegations-of-cease-fire-violations-11645091832

COVID-19 Pandemic

Doctors and charlatans

There is a new blog post entitled, “Child rearing, under the pandemic’s glare.”

British Broadcasting Corporation, “Covid: Trucker protests may hit Super Bowl, US security agency says,” February 10, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60338090

Leyland Cecco, “Protesters defy order to clear bridge connecting Canada and US,” Guardian, February 11, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/12/protesters-defy-order-to-clear-bridge-connecting-canada-and-us

Amanda Coletta et al., “Police prepare to clear ‘Freedom Convoy’ protesters on Ontario border bridge. Tear gas used on Champs-Élysées crowd,” Washington Post, February 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/12/canada-ottawa-trucker-protest-freedom-convoy/

Miguel Marquez, Jason Hanna, and Kim Berryman, “Canadian police begin attempt to clear protesters blocking Ambassador Bridge to US,” CNN, February 12, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/12/americas/canada-truckers-protests-covid-saturday/index.html

Kayla Tarnowski and Julio Cesar Chavez, “Key bridge to U.S. remains closed as Canada police clear protesters,” Reuters, February 13, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-protesters-police-deadlocked-tensions-simmer-blocked-border-bridge-2022-02-13/

Brian Wilk, “US Freedom Convoy met with support as they make stop in Erie,” YourErie.com, February 13, 2022, https://www.yourerie.com/news/local-news/us-freedom-convoy-met-with-support-as-they-make-stop-in-erie/

Miriam Berger et al., “U.S.-Canada border crossing reopens after six-day blockade by ‘Freedom Convoy’ protesters,” Washington Post, February 14, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/13/canada-freedom-convoy-border-blockades-truckers/

Amanda Coletta et al., “Trudeau invokes Emergencies Act against Canada’s ‘Freedom Convoy’ trucker protest,” Washington Post, February 14, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/14/canada-ottawa-trucker-protests-bridge/

Paul Vieira and Kim Mackrael, “U.S.-Canada Bridge Reopens After Police Clear Protest,” Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/canadian-police-begin-to-clear-protesters-disrupting-cross-border-bridge-traffic-11644759497

Amol Rajan, “Novak Djokovic: I’m not anti-vax but will sacrifice trophies if told to get jab,” British Broadcasting Corporation, February 15, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60354068

Matthew Syed, “What Novak Djokovic revealed to me at lunch,” Times, February 16, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/matthew-syed-what-novak-djokovic-revealed-to-me-at-lunch-d85gv8jph

Miriam Berger et al., “Ottawa police presence grows as chief vows to ‘take back’ city from ‘Freedom Convoy’ protesters,” Washington Post, February 17, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/17/canada-freedom-convoy-ottawa-protest/

Police White supremacist gangs

Julia Felton, “Pittsburgh activists, officials hope legislation will end ‘systemic racism’ in traffic stops,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, February 16, 2022, https://triblive.com/local/pittsburgh-activists-officials-hope-legislation-will-end-systemic-racism-in-traffic-stops/

  1. [1]Tyler Madden, “Follansbee leaders ponder next steps after learning of coke plant closure,” WTOV, February 14, 2022, https://wtov9.com/news/local/follansbee-leaders-ponder-next-steps-after-learning-of-coke-plant-closure↩
  2. [2]Tyler Madden, “Follansbee leaders ponder next steps after learning of coke plant closure,” WTOV, February 14, 2022, https://wtov9.com/news/local/follansbee-leaders-ponder-next-steps-after-learning-of-coke-plant-closure↩

Elites escape scrutiny for sexual assault, sexual harassment, and rape, yet again

benfell

COVID-19 Pandemic

Doctors and charlatans


Anthony Faiola, “Canada’s Trumpian trucker protests show the global radicalization of anti-vaxxers,” Washington Post, February 8, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/08/trucker-freedom-convoy-radicalization-global/

Renatta Signorini, “Hospital leaders hopeful as covid cases decline, staffing remains an issue,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, February 9, 2022, https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/hospital-leaders-hopeful-as-covid-cases-decline-but-staffing-remains-an-issue/

British Broadcasting Corporation, “Covid: Trucker protests may hit Super Bowl, US security agency says,” February 10, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60338090

Leyland Cecco, “Protesters defy order to clear bridge connecting Canada and US,” Guardian, February 11, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/12/protesters-defy-order-to-clear-bridge-connecting-canada-and-us

Amanda Coletta et al., “Police prepare to clear ‘Freedom Convoy’ protesters on Ontario border bridge. Tear gas used on Champs-Élysées crowd,” Washington Post, February 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/12/canada-ottawa-trucker-protest-freedom-convoy/

Miguel Marquez, Jason Hanna, and Kim Berryman, “Canadian police begin attempt to clear protesters blocking Ambassador Bridge to US,” CNN, February 12, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/12/americas/canada-truckers-protests-covid-saturday/index.html

Kayla Tarnowski and Julio Cesar Chavez, “Key bridge to U.S. remains closed as Canada police clear protesters,” Reuters, February 13, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-protesters-police-deadlocked-tensions-simmer-blocked-border-bridge-2022-02-13/

Brian Wilk, “US Freedom Convoy met with support as they make stop in Erie,” YourErie.com, February 13, 2022, https://www.yourerie.com/news/local-news/us-freedom-convoy-met-with-support-as-they-make-stop-in-erie/

Miriam Berger et al., “U.S.-Canada border crossing reopens after six-day blockade by ‘Freedom Convoy’ protesters,” Washington Post, February 14, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/13/canada-freedom-convoy-border-blockades-truckers/

Amanda Coletta et al., “Trudeau invokes Emergencies Act against Canada’s ‘Freedom Convoy’ trucker protest,” Washington Post, February 14, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/14/canada-ottawa-trucker-protests-bridge/

Paul Vieira and Kim Mackrael, “U.S.-Canada Bridge Reopens After Police Clear Protest,” Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/canadian-police-begin-to-clear-protesters-disrupting-cross-border-bridge-traffic-11644759497

Amol Rajan, “Novak Djokovic: I’m not anti-vax but will sacrifice trophies if told to get jab,” British Broadcasting Corporation, February 15, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60354068

Jeffrey Epstein

Once again, we escape a reckoning for the relationship between power and sexual assault, sexual harassment, and rape.

[Jeffrey] Epstein, a multimillionaire and registered sex offender with ties to celebrities and politicians including President
Trump and former president Bill Clinton, was arrested last month on federal sex trafficking charges that could have
put him in prison for 45 years. Prosecutors alleged he abused dozens of young girls at his homes in Manhattan and
Palm Beach, Fla., and enlisted his victims to bring him others.[1]

People following Jeffrey Epstein’s long saga have expressed frustration that his larger network has never been properly interrogated. After Epstein’s death in prison and Ghislaine Maxwell’s trial, which was limited in scope, the last hope to understand the breadth of his influence hinged on a lawsuit filed by Virginia Roberts Giuffre against Prince Andrew. That hope may now be dead after she settled her case against the British royal on Tuesday.[2]

Jeffrey Epstein’s former pilot named Bill Clinton, Donald Trump, Itzhak Perlman, Prince Andrew, Senator George Mitchell, Senator John Glenn, Kevin Spacey as passengers on Epstein’s plane but was not witness to any sexual activity or signs of sexual activity.[3]

Choire Sicha, “The Last Chance to Learn Jeffrey Epstein’s Secrets Closes,” New York, February 15, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/02/jeffrey-epstein-prince-andrew.html

Shayna Jacobs, “Prince Andrew settles with U.S. woman who says she was trafficked to him by Jeffrey Epstein,” Washington Post, February 15, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/02/15/andrew-giuffre-settlement-epstein/

Will Pavia, “Prince Andrew’s payout to Virginia Giuffre ‘is worth its weight in gold’ for Queen,” Times, February 16, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prince-andrew-and-virginia-giuffre-agree-settlement-in-sexual-abuse-case-q257kth5m

Ukraine

As I’ve been saying, really since Jon Allsop said it,[4] everything we’re hearing on Ukraine is bullshit. So last Friday, February 11, Nick Schifrin tweeted that Vladimir Putin had decided to invade Ukraine and that the invasion would likely begin in what is now this week causing all sorts of agitation, agitation that seems, now anyway, to have been unwarranted.[5]

Friday’s kerfuffle was just another installment of what the Biden administration calls “strategic communications,” but is better understood as information warfare. Last week, a certain kind of conventional wisdom had set in that if [Vladimir] Putin did invade, he would wait until after the Olympics were over, so as to not anger the man he needs the most right now, Xi Jinping. There was a sense that we could wait to worry about Ukraine until after the closing ceremonies. We were comforted and our attention wandered, which meant that the pressure on Russia was easing. So the White House acted, releasing information to snap us back to attention and blow apart the idea that Ukraine was safe until the Olympics were over. Not only had the troop build-up continued, the White House countered, but Putin was about to pull the trigger.

In private, administration officials were more circumspect. Despite the movement of troops, the fundamentals hadn’t really changed, they said. An invasion was still extremely likely and they believed Putin would act sooner rather than later. But given that they’ve been saying that consistently, for the last two months, it’s becoming harder and harder, at least for me, to get as agitated about the imminent outbreak of World War III than it was, say, a month ago.[6]

But it’s hard not to worry. Julia Ioffe also writes,

Vladimir Putin has virtually encircled Ukraine with an unprecedented number of soldiers, tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery installations, ships, and the logistical backup required to support this war machine. And, as observers have pointed out, all of this is being done out in the open, for all to see. The Kremlin continues to say it has no plans to invade Ukraine and that it is simply conducting perfectly legal military exercises, but that is, quite obviously, a lie. Putin has built this military presence on Ukraine’s borders at the same time as he publicly drew his “red lines,” and as his foreign minister warned of the “nightmare” of war in Europe. He has spoken openly this winter of keeping up the pressure until the West takes his demands seriously and gives him what he wants—or at least some of it. Ukraine is the unfortunate hostage in this game of chicken between Moscow and Washington.[7]

Still, it does seem like the Biden administration has a plan:

Here’s the rub: the Biden administration is using this novel technique [“strategic communications”] to get something not to happen. To do this, they’re trying to ramp up the fear that something will happen.

The idea is to take away Putin’s favorite tool: unpredictability. There are few things the man seems to hate more than being forced to do things on someone else’s timeline, on someone else’s terms. Announcing, or even leaking, that Putin is going to invade next week is a pretty good way to make sure Putin doesn’t invade next week. And the longer you can push off a potential invasion, both with diplomacy and this kind of weaponized leaking, the longer his troops are waiting in the cold and the mud, the less potent the threat becomes—hopefully. (Plus, the two things can be interrelated: leaking can buy more time for diplomacy and thus, hopefully, end the standoff without a shot being fired.)[8]

Ioffe seems to think it’s working and seems very cautiously optimistic that the probability of a Russian invasion of Ukraine is diminishing.[9] Let’s hope.

Jon Allsop, “The one person who knows what Putin is thinking,” Columbia Journalism Review, February 14, 2022, https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/putin_ukraine_state_media.php

Vivian Salama and Alan Cullison, “U.S. Is Closing Kyiv Embassy, Relocating Diplomatic Operations to Western Ukraine,” Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-is-closing-kyiv-embassy-relocating-diplomatic-operations-to-western-ukraine-11644864455

Nahal Toosi to Global Insider list, “A thin line between love and war,” Politico, February 14, 2022, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/global-insider/2022/02/14/a-thin-line-between-love-and-war-00008565

Julia Ioffe, “Putin on the Brink… of What, Exactly?” Puck News, February 15, 2022, https://puck.news/putin-on-the-brink/

San Francisco Schools

When I was a kid, I thought Los Angeles had too much influence in California politics. Today, there can be no question that San Francisco is a Democratic Party powerhouse; Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Senator Dianne Feinstein, and California Governor Gavin Newsom are merely current examples—there are many more historically and still more if you broaden your scope to the Bay Area—of important U.S. politicians all hailing from San Francisco. But if there is or ever has been an intelligent person in the San Francisco political establishment, I’ve yet to hear of them. They’re all fucking idiots; while one or the other may be or have been a savant in the psychopathic[10] exercise of political power, their treatment of issues is and always has been superficial at best. This recall[11] merely rearranges three deck chairs on the Titanic. It solves nothing.

Jill Tucker and Annie Vainshtein, “S.F. school board recall: Alison Collins, Gabriela López and Faauuga Moliga ousted,” San Francisco Chronicle, February 15, 2022, https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/S-F-school-board-recall-Alison-Collins-16922351.php

McKeesport

In Clairton, upstream from McKeesport, an old hotel with views of the U.S. Steel Clairton Works plant is being redeveloped. Somebody is pouring millions of dollars into the effort. And I wonder who would put that kind of money into Clairton’s downtown. It doesn’t appear to be a redevelopment agency and I saw nothing in the news about it.

That hotel reminds me of a restaurant in a not so great neighborhood some old friends went to in the San Jose area. They said that every time they went in, the place was empty. The service and food were excellent but clearly, this restaurant was not about being a restaurant. Their dark suspicions were that it was a front for organized crime, perhaps for laundering money.

Like McKeesport, Clairton’s downtown is blighted. If there’s any money in town, it’s hard to see. And it’s hard to see how prospects for Clairton or McKeesport improve under capitalism. Except perhaps with organized crime.

But in McKeesport, the city is trying anyway.[12] I can’t fault them for trying. That city, warts and all, is what they’ve got. But I wonder if they can even begin to imagine the uphill struggle they face.

Rich Lord, “In McKeesport, a demolition drive pauses at the door of a once-glamorous hotel,” Public Source, February 14, 2022, https://www.publicsource.org/mckeesport-rising-penn-mckee-hotel-kennedy-nixon-cherepko-preservation-demolition/

Rich Lord, “Saving McKeesport’s Penn McKee Hotel would cost millions, but the mayor wants to give it a try,” Public Source, February 15, 2022, https://www.publicsource.org/mckeesport-penn-mckee-hotel-preservation-cherepko-great-allegheny-passage/

Intractable polarization

Jennifer Rankin, “ECJ dismisses Hungary and Poland’s complaints over rule-of-law measure,” Guardian, February 16, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/law/2022/feb/16/ecj-dismisses-hungary-poland-complaints-eu-rule-of-law-measure

  1. [1]Matt Zapotosky et al., “Jeffrey Epstein dead after ‘apparent suicide’ in New York,” Washington Post, August 10, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/jeffrey-epstein-kills-himself-in-jail-according-to-media-reports/2019/08/10/a3d48862-bb73-11e9-b3b4-2bb69e8c4e39_story.html↩
  2. [2]Choire Sicha, “The Last Chance to Learn Jeffrey Epstein’s Secrets Closes,” New York, February 15, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/02/jeffrey-epstein-prince-andrew.html↩
  3. [3]Lauren del Valle and Eric Levenson, “Jeffrey Epstein’s former pilot testifies Bill Clinton, Donald Trump, Prince Andrew flew aboard Epstein’s private plane,” CNN, November 30, 2021, https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/30/us/ghislaine-maxwell-pilot/index.html↩
  4. [4]Jon Allsop, “The information war over Ukraine,” Columbia Journalism Review, January 25, 2022, https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/ukraine_russia_america_britain_media.php↩
  5. [5]Julia Ioffe, “Putin on the Brink… of What, Exactly?” Puck News, February 15, 2022, https://puck.news/putin-on-the-brink/↩
  6. [6]Julia Ioffe, “Putin on the Brink… of What, Exactly?” Puck News, February 15, 2022, https://puck.news/putin-on-the-brink/↩
  7. [7]Julia Ioffe, “Putin on the Brink… of What, Exactly?” Puck News, February 15, 2022, https://puck.news/putin-on-the-brink/↩
  8. [8]Julia Ioffe, “Putin on the Brink… of What, Exactly?” Puck News, February 15, 2022, https://puck.news/putin-on-the-brink/↩
  9. [9]Julia Ioffe, “Putin on the Brink… of What, Exactly?” Puck News, February 15, 2022, https://puck.news/putin-on-the-brink/↩
  10. [10]George Monbiot, “Outer Turmoil,” June 17, 2019, https://www.monbiot.com/2019/06/17/outer-turmoil/↩
  11. [11]Jill Tucker and Annie Vainshtein, “S.F. school board recall: Alison Collins, Gabriela López and Faauuga Moliga ousted,” San Francisco Chronicle, February 15, 2022, https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/S-F-school-board-recall-Alison-Collins-16922351.php↩
  12. [12]Rich Lord, “In McKeesport, a demolition drive pauses at the door of a once-glamorous hotel,” Public Source, February 14, 2022, https://www.publicsource.org/mckeesport-rising-penn-mckee-hotel-kennedy-nixon-cherepko-preservation-demolition/; Rich Lord, “Saving McKeesport’s Penn McKee Hotel would cost millions, but the mayor wants to give it a try,” Public Source, February 15, 2022, https://www.publicsource.org/mckeesport-penn-mckee-hotel-preservation-cherepko-great-allegheny-passage/↩

The Mazars don’t like Donald Trump anymore

benfell

Donald Trump

Finances

Dominic Rushe, “Trump Organization’s accountants cut ties, calling years of filings unreliable,” Guardian, February 14, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/14/donald-trump-organization-accountants-mazars-cut-ties

COVID-19 Pandemic, U.S. Civil War

Doctors and charlatans

Anthony Faiola, “Canada’s Trumpian trucker protests show the global radicalization of anti-vaxxers,” Washington Post, February 8, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/08/trucker-freedom-convoy-radicalization-global/

Renatta Signorini, “Hospital leaders hopeful as covid cases decline, staffing remains an issue,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, February 9, 2022, https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/hospital-leaders-hopeful-as-covid-cases-decline-but-staffing-remains-an-issue/

British Broadcasting Corporation, “Covid: Trucker protests may hit Super Bowl, US security agency says,” February 10, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60338090

Leyland Cecco, “Protesters defy order to clear bridge connecting Canada and US,” Guardian, February 11, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/12/protesters-defy-order-to-clear-bridge-connecting-canada-and-us

Amanda Coletta et al., “Police prepare to clear ‘Freedom Convoy’ protesters on Ontario border bridge. Tear gas used on Champs-Élysées crowd,” Washington Post, February 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/12/canada-ottawa-trucker-protest-freedom-convoy/

Miguel Marquez, Jason Hanna, and Kim Berryman, “Canadian police begin attempt to clear protesters blocking Ambassador Bridge to US,” CNN, February 12, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/12/americas/canada-truckers-protests-covid-saturday/index.html

Kayla Tarnowski and Julio Cesar Chavez, “Key bridge to U.S. remains closed as Canada police clear protesters,” Reuters, February 13, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-protesters-police-deadlocked-tensions-simmer-blocked-border-bridge-2022-02-13/

Brian Wilk, “US Freedom Convoy met with support as they make stop in Erie,” YourErie.com, February 13, 2022, https://www.yourerie.com/news/local-news/us-freedom-convoy-met-with-support-as-they-make-stop-in-erie/

Miriam Berger et al., “U.S.-Canada border crossing reopens after six-day blockade by ‘Freedom Convoy’ protesters,” Washington Post, February 14, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/13/canada-freedom-convoy-border-blockades-truckers/

Amanda Coletta et al., “Trudeau invokes Emergencies Act against Canada’s ‘Freedom Convoy’ trucker protest,” Washington Post, February 14, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/14/canada-ottawa-trucker-protests-bridge/

Paul Vieira and Kim Mackrael, “U.S.-Canada Bridge Reopens After Police Clear Protest,” Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/canadian-police-begin-to-clear-protesters-disrupting-cross-border-bridge-traffic-11644759497

Ukraine

Joe Biden and his administration have repeatedly and consistently said that the U.S. would not be sending troops to defend Ukraine against a Russian invasion[1] and I can’t imagine U.S. popular opinion supporting such an operation, so I’ve been dismissive of war talk on Twitter. Here’s the problem:

This is not going to be a war of Ukraine and Russia. This is going to be a European war. A fully-fledged war.[2]

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky does not support his claim with evidence[3] and Russia already occupies some Ukraine territory from previous incursions[4] that have not (yet) sparked wider conflagrations.

Zelensky has also sought to downplay the threat of an imminent Russian invasion, apparently attempting to preserve domestic stability.[5] So while seeming dissonant, the threat of a wider European war[6] also seems like it could involve the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which would draw in the U.S.

I still don’t know what to think here. Jon Allsop pointed out—as far as I know he made this point first[7]—that there’s a propaganda war and this point now seems to be widely accepted.[8] That argues strongly against taking anything being said, including the latest about the U.S. closing its embasssy in Kyiv,[9] terribly seriously. The trouble there is the downside risk, indeed a probability that ‘hysteria’ is much too strong a word for fears that Russia will invade.

Jon Allsop, “The one person who knows what Putin is thinking,” Columbia Journalism Review, February 14, 2022, https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/putin_ukraine_state_media.php

Vivian Salama and Alan Cullison, “U.S. Is Closing Kyiv Embassy, Relocating Diplomatic Operations to Western Ukraine,” Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-is-closing-kyiv-embassy-relocating-diplomatic-operations-to-western-ukraine-11644864455

Nahal Toosi to Global Insider list, “A thin line between love and war,” Politico, February 14, 2022, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/global-insider/2022/02/14/a-thin-line-between-love-and-war-00008565

Billionaire space race

Jackie Wattles, “A billionaire CEO is on track to go further into space than any human in 50 years,” WTAE, February 14, 2022, https://www.wtae.com/article/billionaire-ceo-further-space-any-human-50-years/39078712

  1. [1]Julia Ioffe, “Inside the Biden-Putin Chess Match,” Puck News, January 25, 2022, https://puck.news/inside-the-biden-putin-chess-match/; Andrew Roth and Julian Borger, “US says it will send troops to eastern Europe if Russia invades Ukraine,” Guardian, December 6, 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/06/us-says-it-will-send-troops-to-eastern-europe-if-russia-invades-ukraine; Nahal Toosi to Global Insider list, “A thin line between love and war,” Politico, February 14, 2022, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/global-insider/2022/02/14/a-thin-line-between-love-and-war-00008565↩
  2. [2]Volodymyr Zelensky, quoted in Jake Epstein and John Haltiwanger, “Ukraine’s president warns a Russian invasion would spark a ‘fully-fledged’ European war,” Business Insider, February 1, 2022, https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-president-warns-russia-invasion-could-spark-european-war-2022-2↩
  3. [3]Jake Epstein and John Haltiwanger, “Ukraine’s president warns a Russian invasion would spark a ‘fully-fledged’ European war,” Business Insider, February 1, 2022, https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-president-warns-russia-invasion-could-spark-european-war-2022-2↩
  4. [4]British Broadcasting Corporation, “Ukraine crisis: ‘Russians’ occupy Crimea airports,” February 28, 2014, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26379722; Andrew Higgins, Michael R. Gordon, and Andrew E. Kramer, “Photos Link Masked Men in East Ukraine to Russia,” New York Times, April 20, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/21/world/europe/photos-link-masked-men-in-east-ukraine-to-russia.html; Eugene Rumer and Andrew S. Weiss, “Ukraine: Putin’s Unfinished Business,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 12, 2021, https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/11/12/ukraine-putin-s-unfinished-business-pub-85771; Teri Schultz, “Russia has been warned: So will NATO defend Ukraine?” Deutschewelle, December 1, 2021, https://www.dw.com/en/russia-has-been-warned-so-will-nato-defend-ukraine/a-59983502; Alison Smale and Steven Erlanger, “Ukraine Mobilizes Reserve Troops, Threatening War,” New York Times, March 1, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/world/europe/ukraine.html↩
  5. [5]Jake Epstein and John Haltiwanger, “Ukraine’s president warns a Russian invasion would spark a ‘fully-fledged’ European war,” Business Insider, February 1, 2022, https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-president-warns-russia-invasion-could-spark-european-war-2022-2; Yuras Karmanau, “Ukrainian leaders: Stay calm, Russian invasion not imminent,” Associated Press, January 25, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-russia-diplomacy-europe-baltic-sea-44821c52f54b5e927d86ea28420cb2cf↩
  6. [6]Jake Epstein and John Haltiwanger, “Ukraine’s president warns a Russian invasion would spark a ‘fully-fledged’ European war,” Business Insider, February 1, 2022, https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-president-warns-russia-invasion-could-spark-european-war-2022-2↩
  7. [7]Jon Allsop, “The information war over Ukraine,” Columbia Journalism Review, January 25, 2022, https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/ukraine_russia_america_britain_media.php↩
  8. [8]Nahal Toosi to Global Insider list, “A thin line between love and war,” Politico, February 14, 2022, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/global-insider/2022/02/14/a-thin-line-between-love-and-war-00008565↩
  9. [9]Vivian Salama and Alan Cullison, “U.S. Is Closing Kyiv Embassy, Relocating Diplomatic Operations to Western Ukraine,” Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-is-closing-kyiv-embassy-relocating-diplomatic-operations-to-western-ukraine-11644864455↩

Rally around the false flag

benfell

Ukraine

It’s a bit late, but it was today I found a story on the more recent allegations that Russia in plotting a false flag operation to justify an invasion of Ukraine. As I expected, there is no citation of actual evidence,[1] which means we must treat the evidence as if it doesn’t exist. There are several reasons for this:

  1. If the evidence even exists, intelligence agencies may be misinterpreting it. We cannot evaluate this possibility without seeing the evidence.
  2. If the evidence even exists, it may be more ambiguous than intelligence agencies, particularly in a propaganda war,[2] admit.
  3. The evidence might not even actually exist. Particularly in a propaganda war,[3] we cannot assume that simply because one side is blatantly putting out patent bullshit,[4] that the other is not. On the contrary, we might suspect that bullshit is being answered with bullshit.
  4. Sources of evidence may not have been correctly identified. We expect opponents to seek to deceive each other in war. They may succeed in planting evidence that misleads. So even if one side is being rigorously honest, its conclusions may simply be wrong.
  5. The above possibilities are not mutually exclusive. Without access to all of the evidence, we simply cannot know what is supported how well and what flatly is not. We cannot know what is being spun to support a particular policy. It thus becomes dangerously foolish to support that policy.

    6. Simon Tisdall, “Biden rattles his sabre at Putin … but it’s Xi he really wants to scare,” Guardian, February 6, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/06/biden-rattles-his-sabre-at-putin-but-its-xi-he-really-wants-to-scare

    Jon Allsop, “Cutting through the fog of war,” Columbia Journalism Review, February 7, 2022, https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/psaki_price_isis_russia_media.php

    Missy Ryan et al., “Biden vows to stop Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Europe if Russia invades Ukraine,” Washington Post, February 7, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/07/ukraine-russia-scholz-biden-macron/

    David L. Stern, “The Ukrainian language is having a moment. To Putin’s ears, it’s a shot against Russian speakers,” Washington Post, February 8, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/08/ukraine-russia-language-putin/

    Julia Ioffe, “War and Peace: The View from Moscow,” Puck News, February 10, 2022, https://puck.news/war-and-peace-the-view-from-moscow/

    Shane Harris, Ashley Parker, and Ellen Nakashima, “New intelligence suggests Russia plans a ‘false flag’ operation to trigger an invasion of Ukraine,” Washington Post, February 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/02/11/russia-ukraine-invasion-intelligence/

    Steve Hendrix, Amy Cheng, and Missy Ryan, “U.S. orders most embassy staffers in Kyiv to leave Ukraine amid fears Russia will invade soon,” Washington Post, February 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/12/ukraine-russia-putin-biden-belarus/

    Work

    Jamison Hixenbaugh, “Gov. Wolf Continues Push for Minimum Wage Increase in Pennsylvania,” Erie News Now, February 11, 2022, https://www.erienewsnow.com/story/45860226/gov-wolf-continues-push-for-minimum-wage-increase-in-pennsylvania

    COVID-19 Pandemic

    Doctors and charlatans

    That bridge between Windsor, Ontario, and Detroit might be back open soon.[5]

    Anthony Faiola, “Canada’s Trumpian trucker protests show the global radicalization of anti-vaxxers,” Washington Post, February 8, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/08/trucker-freedom-convoy-radicalization-global/

    Renatta Signorini, “Hospital leaders hopeful as covid cases decline, staffing remains an issue,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, February 9, 2022, https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/hospital-leaders-hopeful-as-covid-cases-decline-but-staffing-remains-an-issue/

    British Broadcasting Corporation, “Covid: Trucker protests may hit Super Bowl, US security agency says,” February 10, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60338090

    Leyland Cecco, “Protesters defy order to clear bridge connecting Canada and US,” Guardian, February 11, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/12/protesters-defy-order-to-clear-bridge-connecting-canada-and-us

    Amanda Coletta et al., “Police prepare to clear ‘Freedom Convoy’ protesters on Ontario border bridge. Tear gas used on Champs-Élysées crowd,” Washington Post, February 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/12/canada-ottawa-trucker-protest-freedom-convoy/

    Miguel Marquez, Jason Hanna, and Kim Berryman, “Canadian police begin attempt to clear protesters blocking Ambassador Bridge to US,” CNN, February 12, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/12/americas/canada-truckers-protests-covid-saturday/index.html

    Kayla Tarnowski and Julio Cesar Chavez, “Key bridge to U.S. remains closed as Canada police clear protesters,” Reuters, February 13, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-protesters-police-deadlocked-tensions-simmer-blocked-border-bridge-2022-02-13/

    1. [1]Shane Harris, Ashley Parker, and Ellen Nakashima, “New intelligence suggests Russia plans a ‘false flag’ operation to trigger an invasion of Ukraine,” Washington Post, February 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/02/11/russia-ukraine-invasion-intelligence/↩
    2. [2]Jon Allsop, “Cutting through the fog of war,” Columbia Journalism Review, February 7, 2022, https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/psaki_price_isis_russia_media.php↩
    3. [3]Jon Allsop, “Cutting through the fog of war,” Columbia Journalism Review, February 7, 2022, https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/psaki_price_isis_russia_media.php↩
    4. [4]Shane Harris, Ashley Parker, and Ellen Nakashima, “New intelligence suggests Russia plans a ‘false flag’ operation to trigger an invasion of Ukraine,” Washington Post, February 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/02/11/russia-ukraine-invasion-intelligence/↩
    5. [5]Kayla Tarnowski and Julio Cesar Chavez, “Key bridge to U.S. remains closed as Canada police clear protesters,” Reuters, February 13, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-protesters-police-deadlocked-tensions-simmer-blocked-border-bridge-2022-02-13/↩