The kind of mushrooms I like are not mushroom clouds

benfell

Ukraine

Writing for the Times, Mark Galeotti thinks Ukraine is stuck with Russia, which is stuck both with Vladimir Putin, and an intractable war of resistance in Ukraine. Putin has a firm grip on the Russian security services, which have a sufficient grip on the military to prevent a coup, and no one else has the ability to remove him. We are all waiting, he writes, for the “grim reaper,” while a Europe frightened both by his upending of the “international order” and by his nuclear threats refuses a return to normal.[1] I think Galeotti’s analysis complements Julia Ioffe’s,[2] explaining bits that, as brilliant a writer as she is, she has not.

I remember talk of a new Cold War following Putin’s moves on Ukraine in 2014, his seizure of Crimea and territories in Ukraine’s east.[3] Whether we now agree with that assessment of that time or not, it is certainly apparent now that this is how Putin chose to view it, and we are surely in one now.[4] The question of how long it lasts and whether it becomes a wider, possibly nuclear hot war remains.[5] Putin himself threatened the latter prospect, saying that financial sanctions were[6] “akin to an act of war,”[7] which, given that the Russian military remains bogged down[8] and that the Russian economy is being crippled by sanctions,[9] would seem to leave a nuclear attack, likely employing Russia’s heaviest weapons, as the only available avenue for widening his war.

In revisiting my post from 2014 on the return of the Cold War,[10] I found a need to restore some images and took new screenshots from the New York Times page[11] Among them is a map of the historic Russian empire (figure 1).[12] If, indeed, Putin sees himself as a “gatherer of Russian lands,”[13] then his ambitions might well include North Atlantic Treaty Organization and European Union territory.

Fig. 1. Historic Russian empire, from the New York Times, possibly March 6, 2014, fair use.[14]

Ioffe titles her newsletter at Puck News, “Tomorrow Will Be Worse.” It’s hard to imagine she had any idea how prescient that would prove to be, or how much worse it might yet still be tomorrow.

Paritosh Bansal and Stephen Coates, “Russian central bank scrambles to contain fallout of sanctions,” Reuters, February 27, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-central-bank-scrambles-contain-fallout-sanctions-2022-02-28/

Catherine Belton, Paritosh Bansal, and Megan Davies, “Analysis: SWIFT block deals crippling blow to Russia; leaves room to tighten,” Reuters, February 27, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/swift-block-deals-crippling-blow-russia-leaves-room-tighten-2022-02-27/

Anthony Faiola, “Putin’s invasion of Ukraine could be backfiring,” Washington Post, February 27, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/27/russia-invasion-backfiring-ukraine/

David Frum, “Can Putin Recover From This?” Atlantic, February 27, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-russian-sanctions-work/622940/

Yuras Karmanau, “Putin puts nuclear forces on high alert, escalating tensions,” Associated Press, February 27, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-business-europe-moscow-2e4e1cf784f22b6afbe5a2f936725550

Dasha Litvinova, “Russians hold anti-war rallies amid ominous threats by Putin,” Associated Press, February 27, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-europe-arrests-moscow-cf5dda5528937de907f8916820cfab75

Robert Mackey, “Russian TV Uses Tucker Carlson and Tulsi Gabbard to Sell Putin’s War,” Intercept, February 27, 2022, https://theintercept.com/2022/02/24/russian-tv-uses-tucker-carlson-tulsi-gabbard-sell-putins-war/

Tom Nichols, “How Should the U.S. Respond to Putin’s Nuclear Provocation?” Atlantic, February 27, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-the-west-should-respond-to-putins-nuclear-provocation/622943/

Ann M. Simmons and Matthew Luxmoore, “Putin Finds Himself Isolated, Out of Touch as Invasion of Ukraine Sputters,” Wall Street Journal, February 27, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-his-invasion-of-ukraine-sputters-putin-finds-himself-isolated-and-out-of-touch-11646000993

Liz Sly and Dan Lamothe, “The war in Ukraine isn’t working out the way Russia intended,” Washington Post, February 27, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/27/ukraine-russia-invasion-tactics/

Vladimir Sorokin, “Vladimir Putin sits atop a crumbling pyramid of power,” Guardian, February 27, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/27/vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-power

Andrew Sparrow, “Russian oligarchs in UK face new laws tackling ‘dirty money,’” Guardian, February 27, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/feb/28/russian-oligarchs-in-uk-face-new-laws-tackling-dirty-money

Jon Ungoed-Thomas and Shanti Das, “Boris Johnson under pressure to widen sanctions on more oligarchs in London,” Guardian, February 27, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/boris-johnson-under-pressure-to-widen-sanctions-on-more-oligarchs-in-london

Associated Press, “Russia-Ukraine War: What to know as Ukraine resists advance,” February 28, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-what-to-know-1c7a5fc5e9cf84134592c855c363e791

Larisa Brown, “Ukraine resistance shatters Putin’s plan for victory in 48 hours,” Times, February 28, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk//article/ukraine-resistance-shatters-putins-plan-for-victory-in-48-hours-0flscp323

Martin Farrer, Andrew Roth, and Julian Borger, “Ukraine war: sanctions-hit Russian rouble crashes as Zelenskiy speaks of ‘crucial’ 24 hours,” Guardian, February 28, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/28/ukraine-war-sanctions-hit-russian-rouble-crashes-as-zelenskiy-speaks-of-crucial-24-hours

Julia Ioffe, “‘The Image of Putin Has Broken,’” Puck News, February 28, 2022, https://puck.news/the-image-of-putin-has-broken/

Roland Oliphant, “The Russians rolled into Kharkiv like victors, but it was another disaster for them,” Telegraph, February 28, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/27/dispatch-russians-rolled-kharkiv-like-victors-another-disaster/

Caitlin Ostroff, “Russia’s Ruble, Financial Markets Are Hammered by Sanctions,” Wall Street Journal, February 28, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-ruble-financial-markets-are-hammered-by-sanctions-11646038133

Reuters, “Demand for VPNs in Russia, Ukraine leaps as internet control tightens,” February 28, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/demand-vpns-russia-ukraine-leaps-internet-control-tightens-2022-02-28/

Reuters, “The events leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” February 28, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/events-leading-up-russias-invasion-ukraine-2022-02-28/

Roane Carey, “Don’t Be a Tankie: How the Left Should Respond to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine,” Intecept, March 1, 2022, https://theintercept.com/2022/03/01/ukraine-russia-leftists-tankie/

Richard Fontaine, “The Long Weekend That Changed History,” Atlantic, March 1, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/russia-invasion-ukraine-week-decade/622957/

Camille Gijs, “US sees ‘no indication’ to back Ukrainian claim Belarus has joined Russia’s invasion,” Politico, March 1, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-russia-war-ukraine/

Quinn Glabicki, “The Russian invasion of Ukraine ignites anger, distress among Pittsburghers from warring nations,” Public Source, March 1, 2022, https://www.publicsource.org/pittsburgh-reaction-ukraine-russia-invasion-war-putin/

Yuras Karmanau et al., “Russia pummels Ukraine’s No. 2 city and convoy nears Kyiv,” Associated Press, March 1, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-united-nations-general-assembly-kyiv-business-europe-abc3e297725e57e6052529d844b5ee2f

Iuliia Mendel, “Love, war and two cats — What fleeing Kyiv looked like for us,” Washington Post, March 1, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2022/ukraine-russia-war-what-like-leave-kyiv/

Adam Taylor, “War in Ukraine enters a new phase, even more unpredictable and dangerous than the last,” Washington Post, March 1, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/03/01/ukraine-putin-nuclear-sanctions/

Nataliya Vasilyeva, Robert Mendick, and Mason Boycott-Owen, “Russian troops in disarray and ‘crying’ in combat, radio messages reveal,” Telegraph, March 1, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/01/russian-troops-disarray-crying-combat-radio-messages-reveal/

Robin Wright, “What Does Putin’s Nuclear Sabre Rattling Mean?” New Yorker, March 1, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-does-putins-nuclear-sabre-rattling-mean

Christine Emba, “The war in Ukraine doesn’t need your ‘likes,’” Washington Post, March 2, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/02/ukraine-russia-social-media-unseemly-war-fandom/

Alexander Graef, “Four ways the Russia-Ukraine war could end – from palace coup to Pyrrhic victory,” Telegraph, March 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/02/four-ways-russia-ukraine-war-could-end-palace-coup-pyrrhic/

Luke Harding, Jon Henley, and Martin Farrer, “Russia aims to erase Ukraine, says Zelenskiy, as bombardment intensifies,” Guardian, March 2, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/02/ukraine-cities-bombardment-russia-attack-kyiv-kharkiv-russian-war-invasion

Jim Sleeper, “Too much reality: Putin’s Ukraine invasion summons Europe’s dark past,” Tikkun, March 2, 2022, https://www.tikkun.org/too-much-reality-putins-ukraine-invasion-summons-europes-dark-past/

Con Coughlin, “The oligarchs are turning on Russia’s new tsar,” Telegraph, March 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/03/oligarchs-turning-russias-new-tsar/

James Crisp, “Russian convoy’s advance on Kyiv deflated by flat tyres and Ukrainian mud,” Telegraph, March 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/03/russian-convoys-advance-kyiv-hampered-cheap-tyres-ukrainian/

Julia Ioffe, “Europe’s 9/11,” Puck News, March 3, 2022, https://puck.news/europes-9-11/

Dave Lawler, “Russia agreed to open “humanitarian corridors” for fleeing civilians: Ukraine official,” Axios, March 3, 2022, https://www.axios.com/russia-ukraine-peace-talks-belarus-938faa52-5f99-41a3-aae1-1dcd42c9583c.html

Roland Oliphant, Gordon Rayner, and Lucy Fisher, “Vladimir Putin set to ‘cut Ukraine in two’ as key city of Kherson falls to Russians,” Telegraph, March 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/02/vladimir-putin-set-cut-ukraine-two-key-city-kherson-falls-russians/

Pjotr Sauer, “‘My future is taken away from me’: Russians flee to escape consequences of Moscow’s war,” Guardian, March 3, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/people-leaving-russia-ukraine-war

Michael Schwirtz and Richard Pérez-Peña, “Kremlin Vows Victory in Ukraine as Refugees Swell to One Million,” New York Times, March 3, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/world/europe/russia-ukraine-invasion-kremlin.html

David L. Stern, “Russia claims control of vital port city in Ukraine, as convoy outside Kyiv remains stalled,” Washington Post, March 3, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/02/ukraine-battlefield-military-offensive-kherson/

Jim Heintz, Yuras Karmanau, and Mstyslav Chernov, “Fire out at key Ukraine nuclear plant, no radiation released,” Associated Press, March 4, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-joe-biden-kyiv-business-33b6c1709dee937750f95c6786832840

Eric Levitz, “Putin’s War Looks Increasingly Insane,” New York, March 4, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/putins-war-looks-increasingly-insane.html

Simon Lewis and Sabine Siebold, “NATO rejects Ukraine no-fly zone, says ‘not part of this’ war,” Reuters, March 4, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/nato-meets-ukraine-calls-no-fly-zone-hinder-russia-2022-03-04/

Reuters, “Ukraine and Russia: What you need to know right now,” March 4, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-russia-what-you-need-know-right-now-2022-03-03/

Mark Galeotti, “How does Putin extract himself from this nightmare of his own making?” Times, March 5, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-does-putin-extract-himself-from-this-nightmare-of-his-own-making-v2ktvw08g

Toby Helm et al., “Defiant Putin warns the west: your sanctions are akin to an act of war,” Guardian, March 5, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/05/defiant-putin-warns-the-west-your-sanctions-are-akin-to-an-act-of-war

Dan Lamothe, Alex Horton, and Karoun Demirjian, “Ukraine’s military adapts tactics after enduring Russia’s initial invasion,” Washington Post, March 5, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/05/ukraine-military-strategy/

Tess McClure et al., “Mariupol to evacuate citizens after Russia declares temporary ceasefire,” Guardian, March 5, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/05/zelenskiy-lashes-out-at-nato-over-no-fly-zone-as-russian-attacks-intensify

Yaroslav Trofimov, “Ukraine, Russia Agreement on Evacuating Mariupol Civilians Collapses,” Wall Street Journal, March 5, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-and-russia-agree-to-open-corridors-for-civilians-to-evacuate-mariupol-11646470358

Justin McCurry, Samantha Lock, and Luke Harding, “Russia targeting cities as strength of Ukraine’s resistance ‘continues to surprise’, UK says,” Guardian, March 6, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/06/biden-and-zelenskiy-discuss-more-aid-for-ukraine-as-russian-attacks-intensify

Catherine Philp, Caroline Wheeler, and Matthew Campbell, “Merciless Vladimir Putin shells Ukrainian evacuees,” Times, March 6, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/merciless-vladimir-putin-shells-ukrainian-evacuees-s98r0j50x

Yaroslav Trofimov, “Russian Artillery Kills Ukrainian Civilians Fleeing Kyiv Suburb,” Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-artillery-kills-ukrainian-civilians-fleeing-kyiv-suburb-11646575238

  1. [1]Mark Galeotti, “How does Putin extract himself from this nightmare of his own making?” Times, March 5, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-does-putin-extract-himself-from-this-nightmare-of-his-own-making-v2ktvw08g↩
  2. [2]Julia Ioffe, “Europe’s 9/11,” Puck News, March 3, 2022, https://puck.news/europes-9-11/↩
  3. [3]David Benfell, “It’s back: The Cold War,” March 6, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2014/04/20/its-back-the-cold-war/↩
  4. [4]David Benfell, “Vladimir Putin is a fool,” Not Housebroken, March 2, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/01/24/vladimir-putin-is-a-fool/↩
  5. [5]David Benfell, “Where does Vladimir Putin stop?” Not Housebroken, March 4, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/04/where-does-vladimir-putin-stop/↩
  6. [6]Toby Helm et al., “Defiant Putin warns the west: your sanctions are akin to an act of war,” Guardian, March 5, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/05/defiant-putin-warns-the-west-your-sanctions-are-akin-to-an-act-of-war↩
  7. [7]Vladimir Putin, quoted in Toby Helm et al., “Defiant Putin warns the west: your sanctions are akin to an act of war,” Guardian, March 5, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/05/defiant-putin-warns-the-west-your-sanctions-are-akin-to-an-act-of-war↩
  8. [8]Mark Galeotti, “How does Putin extract himself from this nightmare of his own making?” Times, March 5, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-does-putin-extract-himself-from-this-nightmare-of-his-own-making-v2ktvw08g; Dan Lamothe, Alex Horton, and Karoun Demirjian, “Ukraine’s military adapts tactics after enduring Russia’s initial invasion,” Washington Post, March 5, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/05/ukraine-military-strategy/; Eric Levitz, “Putin’s War Looks Increasingly Insane,” New York, March 4, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/putins-war-looks-increasingly-insane.html; Justin McCurry, Samantha Lock, and Luke Harding, “Russia targeting cities as strength of Ukraine’s resistance ‘continues to surprise’, UK says,” Guardian, March 6, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/06/biden-and-zelenskiy-discuss-more-aid-for-ukraine-as-russian-attacks-intensify↩
  9. [9]Martin Farrer, Andrew Roth, and Julian Borger, “Ukraine war: sanctions-hit Russian rouble crashes as Zelenskiy speaks of ‘crucial’ 24 hours,” Guardian, February 28, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/28/ukraine-war-sanctions-hit-russian-rouble-crashes-as-zelenskiy-speaks-of-crucial-24-hours; Mark Galeotti, “How does Putin extract himself from this nightmare of his own making?” Times, March 5, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-does-putin-extract-himself-from-this-nightmare-of-his-own-making-v2ktvw08g; Eric Levitz, “Putin’s War Looks Increasingly Insane,” New York, March 4, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/putins-war-looks-increasingly-insane.html; Caitlin Ostroff, “Russia’s Ruble, Financial Markets Are Hammered by Sanctions,” Wall Street Journal, February 28, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-ruble-financial-markets-are-hammered-by-sanctions-11646038133↩
  10. [10]David Benfell, “It’s back: The Cold War,” March 6, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2014/04/20/its-back-the-cold-war/↩
  11. [11]New York Times, “Ukraine Crisis in Maps,” n.d., http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/02/27/world/europe/ukraine-divisions-crimea.html↩
  12. [12]New York Times, “Ukraine Crisis in Maps,” n.d., http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/02/27/world/europe/ukraine-divisions-crimea.html↩
  13. [13]Eugene Rumer and Andrew S. Weiss, “Ukraine: Putin’s Unfinished Business,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 12, 2021, https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/11/12/ukraine-putin-s-unfinished-business-pub-85771↩
  14. [14]New York Times, “Ukraine Crisis in Maps,” n.d., http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/02/27/world/europe/ukraine-divisions-crimea.html↩

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