Excuses on abortion rights might not be cutting it with voters

Gilead

Abortion

I need to repeat here what I said late last night (Pacific Time) or early this morning (Eastern Time):

Y’all know I don’t trust surveys when response rates are in the single digits[1] (for the methodology to be valid, the response rate should be at least ninety percent and with the response rates pollsters are actually seeing, there is absolutely no validity whatsoever in extrapolating from respondents to non-respondents).[2]

That said, the Washington Post story is consistent with what I’ve been hearing: While some hope that the Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade leads to a backlash supporting the Democratic Party in what otherwise looks very much to be a catastrophic (depending on your perspective) result this November, a lot of folks think that just isn’t gonna happen. The latter group can claim, if you accept it, survey evidence in support.[3]:

“Is the discontent with Democratic Party leadership and policies generally so deep that those most affected by the court decision … still plan to sit out this election?” said Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, who worked on the poll. “I struggle to wrap my head around this disconnect.”[4]

I can’t speak for others here. But there is some evidence that the answer is, indeed, yes.[5] Because, in essence, I think, if you want excuses, the Democrats are your party. If you want substantive action, they just aren’t. That the Democrats won’t even pass voting rights reform that would keep them in the game simply blows it all away for me: “the Democrats really feel much more comfortable in opposition, where they can complain about the Republicans, than in power; when in power, they’re supposed to accomplish things and they fail at this miserably.”[6] I’m just not even seeing the beginning of a refutation here.

Mark Scolforo, “Gov. Wolf sues to stop GOP-backed amendments on abortion, voting,” Philadelphia Inquirer, July 28, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/governor-wolf-sues-amendments-abortion-voting-20220728.html

Hannah Knowles, Emily Guskin, and Scott Clement, “Americans dismayed at end of Roe are less certain they will vote, poll finds,” Washington Post, July 29, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/29/abortion-roe-midterms-poll/


  1. [1]Dan Balz, “2020 presidential polls suffered worst performance in decades, report says,” Washington Post, July 18, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020-poll-errors/2021/07/18/8d6a9838-e7df-11eb-ba5d-55d3b5ffcaf1_story.html; David Byler, “Polling is broken. No one knows how to fix it,” Washington Post, July 22, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/07/22/polling-is-broken-no-one-knows-how-fix-it/; Mona Chalabi, “The pollsters were wrong – again. Here’s what we know so far,” Guardian, November 4, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/commentisfree/2020/nov/04/the-pollsters-were-wrong-again-heres-what-we-know-so-far; David A. Graham, “The Polling Crisis Is a Catastrophe for American Democracy,” Atlantic, November 4, 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/polling-catastrophe/616986/; Courtney Kennedy and Hannah Hartig, “Response rates in telephone surveys have resumed their decline,” Pew Research Center, February 27, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/27/response-rates-in-telephone-surveys-have-resumed-their-decline/; Steven Shepard, “Report: Phone polls aren’t dead yet,” Politico, May 15, 2017, https://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/15/pollsters-phone-polls-238409; Steven Shepard, “Dem pollsters acknowledge ‘major errors’ in 2020 polling,” Politico, April 13, 2021, https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/13/dems-polling-failure-481044
  2. [2]David Benfell, “If you have to ask whether there will be consequences for Republicans, you don’t want to know the answer,” Irregular Bullshit, July 29, 2022, https://disunitedstates.com/2022/07/29/if-you-have-to-ask-whether-there-will-be-consequences-for-republicans-you-dont-want-to-know-the-answer/
  3. [3]Hannah Knowles, Emily Guskin, and Scott Clement, “Americans dismayed at end of Roe are less certain they will vote, poll finds,” Washington Post, July 29, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/29/abortion-roe-midterms-poll/
  4. [4]Hannah Knowles, Emily Guskin, and Scott Clement, “Americans dismayed at end of Roe are less certain they will vote, poll finds,” Washington Post, July 29, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/29/abortion-roe-midterms-poll/
  5. [5]Benjamin Hart, “The Democratic Party Is Extremely Unpopular Right Now,” New York, May 16, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/05/the-democratic-party-is-extremely-unpopular-right-now.html
  6. [6]David Benfell, “Democrats and contradiction,” Not Housebroken, July 2, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/11/18/democrats-and-contradiction/

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.