Elon Musk knows he’s losing and Donald Trump thinks he’s winning

I am not caught up. But I have appointments today to get to.


Twitter

It appears that even Elon Musk realizes his bullshit is unlikely to prevail. He has sold more Tesla stock in preparation for a contingency in which the court forces him to go through with the purchase of Twitter.[8] He of course frames it a bit differently:


Parse the language: Musk seems to be acknowledging that Twitter, not the judge, but Twitter has the ability to “force[] this deal to close.”[9] I think we can reasonably infer from this that Musk is indeed seeking a settlement[10] and does not anticipate this getting to a stage where the judge would issue such an order. That this stock sale occurs after Musk “said less than four months ago he had no further stock sales planned” suggests further that this is costing him more than he anticipated.[11] He’s not winning. He’s losing. He’s losing big. And he knows it.

Peter Vercoe, “Musk Sells $6.9 Billion of Tesla to Avoid Twitter Fire Sale,” Bloomberg, August 10, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-10/elon-musk-sells-4-3-billion-of-tesla-shares-first-since-april


Gilead

Donald Trump

Coup attempt


Andrew Yang took a lot of flack for these tweets. He was very likely wrong about the search being authorized only at a low level:[12]


I, myself, asked,


But it appears to have solidified Republican support for Donald Trump and made an early announcement of his 2024 candidacy more probable.[13]

Former Trump adviser Sam Nunberg said Monday’s FBI search would almost certainly strengthen Trump’s standing among Republican primary voters, especially those Republicans who had begun to lean toward DeSantis or another fresh face. But if Trump is ultimately indicted for a federal crime related to the search, as Nunberg said he expects, the former president’s ability to win over a broader group of voters in the 2024 general election could take a major hit.

“Despite the fantasies of everyone from Sean Hannity to Steve Bannon, I can promise you that someone under indictment isn’t going to get elected president of the United States,” Nunberg said.

But on Tuesday, at least, the Republican Party was squarely behind Trump, its undisputed leader.[14]

I have underestimated Trump before.

Jonathan Capehart, “Liz Cheney is the Obi-Wan to Trump’s Darth Vader,” Washington Post, August 8, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/08/08/liz-cheney-obi-wan-kenobi-trump-darth-vader/

Eric Tucker and Michael Balsamo, “Trump says FBI conducting search of Mar-a-Lago estate,” Associated Press, August 8, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-mar-a-lago-government-and-politics-9e8d683afe87389407950af7ccfdbdd6

Devlin Barrett et al., “Mar-a-Lago search appears focused on whether Trump, aides withheld items,” Washington Post, August 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/09/trump-fbi-search-mar-a-lago/

Julia Ioffe, “Defund… the F.B.I.?” Puck News, August 9, 2022, https://puck.news/defund-the-f-b-i/

Perry Stein, “Garland vowed to depoliticize Justice. Then the FBI searched Mar-a-Lago,” Washington Post, August 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/09/garland-trump-raid-politics/

Steve Peoples, “GOP rallies around Trump following FBI search of his estate,” Associated Press, August 10, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/gop-rallies-around-donald-trump-a0f20a219b1090fd02f529acf744f246


  1. [8]Peter Vercoe, “Musk Sells $6.9 Billion of Tesla to Avoid Twitter Fire Sale,” Bloomberg, August 10, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-10/elon-musk-sells-4-3-billion-of-tesla-shares-first-since-april
  2. [9]Elon Musk, “Yes. In the (hopefully unlikely) event that Twitter forces this deal to close *and* some equity partners don’t come through, it is important to avoid an emergency sale of Tesla stock,” Twitter, August 10, 2022, https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1557198421206769664
  3. [10]Ankush Khardori, “I Used to Work on Cases Like Twitter v. Musk. Here’s What Will Happen Next,” New York, July 30, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/07/what-will-happen-next-with-the-twitter-v-musk-lawsuit.html
  4. [11]Peter Vercoe, “Musk Sells $6.9 Billion of Tesla to Avoid Twitter Fire Sale,” Bloomberg, August 10, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-10/elon-musk-sells-4-3-billion-of-tesla-shares-first-since-april
  5. [12]Perry Stein, “Garland vowed to depoliticize Justice. Then the FBI searched Mar-a-Lago,” Washington Post, August 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/09/garland-trump-raid-politics/
  6. [13]Steve Peoples, “GOP rallies around Trump following FBI search of his estate,” Associated Press, August 10, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/gop-rallies-around-donald-trump-a0f20a219b1090fd02f529acf744f246
  7. [14]Steve Peoples, “GOP rallies around Trump following FBI search of his estate,” Associated Press, August 10, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/gop-rallies-around-donald-trump-a0f20a219b1090fd02f529acf744f246

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