Doug Mastriano’s answer for the teacher shortage

benfell

Migration


Fig. 1. Unattributed and undated photograph, via the British Broadcasting Corporation, August 12, 2020,[1] fair use.

Unfortunately, I can’t think of a law that says, “We can criminally charge you for being a jerk to vulnerable people for your own political gain.” I wish we did.[2]

Baylee DeMuth, “An unnecessary hurdle? Erie Afghan refugees could face 14-hour trip for asylum interviews,” Erie Times-News, September 15, 2022, https://www.goerie.com/story/news/local/2022/09/16/asylum-interviews-erie-pa-afghan-refugees-possibly-in-arlington-virginia-buffalo-new-york-pittsburgh/65554136007/

Lisa Kashinski, Sue Allan, and Gary Fineout, “GOP governors put focus on migrants with Martha’s Vineyard transport,” Politico, September 15, 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/15/desantis-migrants-marthas-vineyard-immigration-florida-00056870

Alexander Thompson et al., “‘At first they were surprised, just like us.’ Martha’s Vineyard responds to surprise arrival of planeloads of migrants,” Boston Globe, September 15, 2022, https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/09/15/metro/marthas-vineyard-responds-surprise-arrival-planeloads-migrants/

Aaron Blake, “What the law says about DeSantis and Abbott sending migrants to blue states,” Washington Post, September 16, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/15/desantis-abbott-migrants-legality/

Gilead

Donald Trump

Coup attempt


Fig. 1. Original: The White House. Derivative work: J. J. Messerly, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

Devlin Barrett and Perry Stein, “Justice Dept. says it would accept Trump’s candidate for special master,” Washington Post, September 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/09/12/trump-classified-special-master/

Greg Sargent, “Trump faces a new threat: Scrutiny of ‘stop the steal’ money scam,” Washington Post, September 13, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/13/trump-doj-subpoenas-jan-6-save-america-pac/

Jennifer Rubin, “Trump’s legal problems multiply as his excuses disappear,” Washington Post, September 14, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/14/trump-unsealed-affidavit-doj-brief/

Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein, “Judge appoints special master, rejects DOJ bid to delay Mar-a-Lago ruling,” Politico, September 15, 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/15/judge-rejects-doj-bid-to-delay-mar-a-lago-ruling-appoints-special-master-00057123

Sadie Gurman and Aruna Viswanatha, “Justice Department Appeals Parts of Judge’s Ruling on Documents Seized at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago,” Wall Street Journal, September 16, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/justice-department-likely-to-appeal-parts-of-judges-ruling-on-documents-seized-at-trumps-mar-a-lago-11663354445

Take Ryan Deto’s story[3] with a grain of salt.

Surveys


Fig. 1. Graph showing the deterioration of response rates by the Pew Research Center, February 27, 2019, fair use.[4]

When the response rate, which should be ninety percent of a representative sample or more,[5] is instead in the single digits,[6] pollsters have a self-selecting sample that cannot represent non-respondents, particularly when, due to non-response, we have no idea, none whatsoever, how members of that self-selecting sample differ from all those non-respondents. This completely invalidates the methodology and I don’t care what rhetoric pollsters deploy to excuse themselves—the claim that polling works regardless[7] is belied by all the instances in which it doesn’t[8]—or what statistical magic they think they can employ to get around this problem—an absence of data remains an absence of data. This is a non-methodology that persists because we are desperate for an imaginary certainty of numbers,[9] and because people have built entire careers around this non-methodology.

Look, I get that journalists have to report and that journalistic organizations have to conduct polls, all as part of that incredibly essential but utterly nonsubstantive “horse race” coverage. But we really should be more honest about the non-methodology.

Meanwhile, I guess we’re seeing Doug Mastriano’s answer for the teacher shortage. His very vague plan apparently would cut funding for school districts, forcing them to lay off teachers.[10] That might leave a surplus, both of unemployed teachers and undereducated kids.

Tell me again about how we love our teachers.

Ryan Deto, “Pennsylvania’s high-stakes U.S. Senate race between Oz, Fetterman tightens,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, September 16, 2022, https://triblive.com/news/pennsylvania/pennsylvanias-high-stakes-u-s-senate-race-between-oz-fetterman-tightens/

Andrew Goldstein, “Analysis from Pa. teachers group shows ‘terrifying’ results from Mastriano education funding plan,” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, September 16, 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-state/2022/09/16/analysis-pa-teachers-mastriano-education-funding-plan-results/stories/202209160136

California

Additional tests lie ahead, for California and other states and nations. But after this round, California has a clear lesson for the world: Battery storage is a powerful tool for grids facing new strains from heat, cold, fire, flood or aging networks. And just as important, batteries are key to the zero-carbon future we need to avoid even greater stresses down the line.[11]

Mike Ferry, “California’s giant new batteries kept the lights on during the heat wave,” Los Angeles Times, September 13, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2022-09-13/california-electric-grid-batteries-heat-wave-september-2022

  1. [1]British Broadcasting Corporation, “English Channel migrants: Where they’re from and what they’re escaping,” August 12, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-53721146↩
  2. [2]Bridgette Carr, quoted in Aaron Blake, “What the law says about DeSantis and Abbott sending migrants to blue states,” Washington Post, September 16, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/15/desantis-abbott-migrants-legality/↩
  3. [3]Ryan Deto, “Pennsylvania’s high-stakes U.S. Senate race between Oz, Fetterman tightens,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, September 16, 2022, https://triblive.com/news/pennsylvania/pennsylvanias-high-stakes-u-s-senate-race-between-oz-fetterman-tightens/↩
  4. [4]Courtney Kennedy and Hannah Hartig, “Response rates in telephone surveys have resumed their decline,” Pew Research Center, February 27, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/27/response-rates-in-telephone-surveys-have-resumed-their-decline/↩
  5. [5]This according to Valerie Sue, the professor in my first research methods class, at California State University, Hayward (now East Bay), Fall 2003.↩
  6. [6]Steven Shepard, “Report: Phone polls aren’t dead yet,” Politico, May 15, 2017, https://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/15/pollsters-phone-polls-238409; Courtney Kennedy and Hannah Hartig, “Response rates in telephone surveys have resumed their decline,” Pew Research Center, February 27, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/27/response-rates-in-telephone-surveys-have-resumed-their-decline/↩
  7. [7]Steven Shepard, “Report: Phone polls aren’t dead yet,” Politico, May 15, 2017, https://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/15/pollsters-phone-polls-238409; Courtney Kennedy and Hannah Hartig, “Response rates in telephone surveys have resumed their decline,” Pew Research Center, February 27, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/27/response-rates-in-telephone-surveys-have-resumed-their-decline/↩
  8. [8]Dan Balz, “2020 presidential polls suffered worst performance in decades, report says,” Washington Post, July 18, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020-poll-errors/2021/07/18/8d6a9838-e7df-11eb-ba5d-55d3b5ffcaf1_story.html; David Byler, “Polling is broken. No one knows how to fix it,” Washington Post, July 22, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/07/22/polling-is-broken-no-one-knows-how-fix-it/; Mona Chalabi, “The pollsters were wrong – again. Here’s what we know so far,” Guardian, November 4, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/commentisfree/2020/nov/04/the-pollsters-were-wrong-again-heres-what-we-know-so-far; David A. Graham, “The Polling Crisis Is a Catastrophe for American Democracy,” Atlantic, November 4, 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/polling-catastrophe/616986/; Steven Shepard, “Dem pollsters acknowledge ‘major errors’ in 2020 polling,” Politico, April 13, 2021, https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/13/dems-polling-failure-481044↩
  9. [9]Jacques Ellul, The Technological Society, John Wilkinson, trans. (New York: Vintage, 1964).; Neil Postman, Technopoly: The Surrender of Culture to Technology (New York: Vintage, 1993).↩
  10. [10]Andrew Goldstein, “Analysis from Pa. teachers group shows ‘terrifying’ results from Mastriano education funding plan,” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, September 16, 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/politics-state/2022/09/16/analysis-pa-teachers-mastriano-education-funding-plan-results/stories/202209160136↩
  11. [11]Mike Ferry, “California’s giant new batteries kept the lights on during the heat wave,” Los Angeles Times, September 13, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2022-09-13/california-electric-grid-batteries-heat-wave-september-2022↩

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