Be careful what you ask for in Russia. You just might get it.

benfell

Ukraine


Fig. 1. “Destroyed Russian military vehicles located on the main street Khreshchatyk are seen as part of the celebration of the Independence Day of Ukraine in Kyiv, August 24.” Photograph by Gleb Garanich for Reuters, August 24, 2022,[1] fair use.

Note: The following text has been repeatedly updated in an update to my blog posts “Where does Vladimir Putin stop?” and “Nuclear survival.”

When last I checked in on Ukraine, I wrote,

It’s safe to say that Vladimir Putin has well and truly fucked himself. His conventional forces are largely helpless, lacking the leadership to respond effectively to Ukrainian strategy, tactics, and maneuver.[2] Even his nuclear threats are really rather hollow.[3] He makes decisions and gives orders from desperation and delusion.[4]

This is not by any means the picture of a winner. The only remaining question is how ugly a loser he is.[5]

That question is looming larger as Vladimir Putin only digs himself in deeper, committing himself to victory even as Ukraine defeats him on the battlefield:

We are trying to figure out, what is Putin’s off-ramp? Where does he find a way out? Where does he find himself where he does not only lose face but significant power?[6]

Putin is, by far, not the only political leader to confound his country’s survival with his own. And so, when we hear Russian talk of an ‘existential’ situation, one question that must be asked is whether we are really hearing about what is ‘existential’ for Russia or what is ‘existential’ for Putin. As we hear more talk of a possible removal of Putin,[7] it is more than reasonable to suspect the latter.

Delusion can, so the argument goes, only take Putin so far. At some point reality must catch up with him, even ensconced behind the Kremlin walls. And so it looks increasingly likely that Evgenia Markovna Albats is right and that her forecast of Putin’s fall, perhaps by springtime,[8] may be borne out sooner, rather than later.[9] Albats warned that a junta would lack legitimacy and be short term.[10] In a more orderly transition, it seems that much the same would be true of Putin’s immediate successor. What chaos then?[11]

The next few months will teach us something. But Ukrainians have already paid a staggering price for that lesson and ordinary Russians might as well. Then there’s the entire world:

[Joe] Biden said the prospect of defeat could make [Vladimir] Putin desperate enough to use nuclear weapons, the biggest risk since U.S. President John Kennedy and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev faced off over missiles in Cuba in 1962.

“We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis,” Biden said in New York.

Putin was “not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons, because his military is, you might say, is significantly underperforming,” Biden said.[12]

Joe Biden also expressed doubt that “there’s any such thing as the ability to easily [use] a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon.”[13]

It’s a curious point that Lewis Page did not consider the classic understanding of nuclear war in his analysis of Putin’s nuclear options, observing that the West has responses that would devastate the Russian war effort in Ukraine short of using nuclear weapons.[14]

Just today, President [Vladimir] Putin has made overt nuclear threats against Europe, in a reckless disregard for the responsibilities of the nonproliferation regime. A nuclear war cannot be won. And must never be fought.[15]

The classic understanding, of course, is all-out nuclear war, with everybody launching everything they’ve got at each other. The scenario includes the possibility of an accidental or otherwise limited nuclear attack, with escalating responses on each side until both nuclear arsenals are depleted. It is also, among other things, the preemptive strike the hardline anti-communists advocated early in the Cold War,[16] in the hope but with little assurance that enough Amerikkkans would survive to preserve the U.S. political and economic system.

Page is far from alone. I don’t think anyone in the present context has seriously contemplated the possibility of Armageddon, all-out nuclear war. In my discussion of the matter, this was the abandon-all-hope scenario,[17] and as such I don’t see how we can profitably consider it, other than, as I interpret Biden, as a terrifying risk.[18]

But because this Armageddon was the general Cold War understanding, it’s easy to understand the 79-year old Biden invoking it. Indeed, the fear of such underlies my entire post, as updated, on the topic.[19]

The question, as it has been from the beginning of Russian rhetoric about the Ukraine war as ‘existential,’ indeed as “part of a larger existential fight against [the North Atlantic Treaty Organization],”[20] is how ‘existential,’ really? Is it really so ‘existential’ that the Russians will launch nuclear weapons, even all-out nuclear war? Or is it, as I and I think most analysts have postulated, just a bad bluff?[21]

This is another lesson yet to be learned.

CNN, “The turning points in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” September 30, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2022/09/europe/russia-territory-control-ukraine-shift-dg/

Ann M. Simmons and Yuliya Chernova, “Russia Announces Annexation of Four Regions of Ukraine,” Wall Street Journal, September 30, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-prepares-treaties-to-annex-ukrainian-land-11664536196

Eli Stokols, “U.S. sanctions Russia after Putin annexes parts of Ukraine,” Los Angeles Times, September 30, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2022-09-30/u-s-sanctions-russia-after-putin-annexes-ukraine

John Gambrell and Adam Schreck, “Russia withdraws troops from once-occupied Lyman as Ukraine recaptures more territory,” Los Angeles Times, October 1, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-10-01/ukraine-encircles-strategic-eastern-city-of-lyman-in-counteroffensive-against-russia

Luke Harding, “Humiliation for Vladimir Putin as Ukrainians liberate key city of Lyman,” Guardian, October 1, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/01/humiliation-for-vladimir-putin-as-ukrainians-liberate-key-city-of-lyman

Isabelle Khurshudyan et al., “Russian troops withdraw from Lyman, a day after annexation claims,” Washington Post, October 1, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/01/ukaine-russia-lyman-donetsk-annexation/

Liz Sly, “Russia’s annexation puts world ‘two or three steps away’ from nuclear war,” Washington Post, October 1, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/01/europe-putin-nuclear-threats/

Lewis Page, “Why Putin would be a fool to go nuclear in Ukraine,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/02/why-putin-would-fool-go-nuclear-ukraine/

Farida Rustamova, “Vladimir Putin is making rash and secretive decisions in face of defeats, Kremlin insiders warn,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/02/vladimir-putin-making-rash-secretive-decisions-face-defeats/

Josie Ensor, “Nuclear weapons convoy sparks fears Putin could be preparing test to send ‘signal to the West,’” Telegraph, October 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/03/nuclear-weapons-convoy-sparks-fears-putin-could-preparing-test/

Luke Harding, Isobel Koshiw, and Peter Beaumont, “Russia no longer has full control of any of four ‘annexed’ Ukrainian provinces,” Guardian, October 3, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/03/russia-has-no-full-control-of-any-of-four-annexed-ukrainian-provinces

Dominic Nicholls, “Russia’s bloated military has finally been properly tested – and the results are not good,” Telegraph, October 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/03/ukraines-lyman-victory-shows-skill-trumps-numbers-when-comes/

Mary Ilyushina, Emily Rauhala, and Isabelle Khurshudyan, “Ukraine hammers Russian forces into retreat on east and south fronts,” Washington Post, October 4, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/04/russia-retreat-kherson-lyman-ukraine/

Pjotr Sauer, “Attempts to play down retreats in Ukraine no longer wash inside Russia,” Guardian, October 5, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/05/attempts-to-play-down-retreats-ukraine-russia-war-kremlin-military-failure

Ishaan Tharoor, “Annexations show the depth of Putin’s imperial delusion,” Washington Post, October 5, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/10/05/putin-colonial-imperial-delusion/

Robyn Dixon, “As Ukraine war falters, Russians ask a risky question: Could Putin fall?” Washington Post, October 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/06/putin-successor-president-russia-war/

Alex Horton, “Russians flee by boat to Alaska after Putin’s military mobilization,” Washington Post, October 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/06/russians-flee-alaska/

Nandita Bose and Pavel Polityuk, “Biden says Putin’s nuclear threat brings risk of ‘Armageddon,’” Reuters, October 7, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-forces-break-through-russian-defences-south-advance-east-2022-10-03/

Greg Miller et al., “Putin confronted by insider over Ukraine war, U.S. intelligence finds,” Washington Post, October 7, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/07/putin-inner-circle-dissent/

  1. [1]Reuters, “Ukraine puts destroyed Russian tanks on display in Kyiv,” August 25, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/ukraine-puts-destroyed-russian-tanks-on-idUSRTSALV9Q↩
  2. [2]Luke Harding, Isobel Koshiw, and Peter Beaumont, “Russia no longer has full control of any of four ‘annexed’ Ukrainian provinces,” Guardian, October 3, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/03/russia-has-no-full-control-of-any-of-four-annexed-ukrainian-provinces; Mary Ilyushina, Emily Rauhala, and Isabelle Khurshudyan, “Ukraine hammers Russian forces into retreat on east and south fronts,” Washington Post, October 4, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/04/russia-retreat-kherson-lyman-ukraine/; Dominic Nicholls, “Russia’s bloated military has finally been properly tested – and the results are not good,” Telegraph, October 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/03/ukraines-lyman-victory-shows-skill-trumps-numbers-when-comes/↩
  3. [3]Lewis Page, “Why Putin would be a fool to go nuclear in Ukraine,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/02/why-putin-would-fool-go-nuclear-ukraine/↩
  4. [4]Farida Rustamova, “Vladimir Putin is making rash and secretive decisions in face of defeats, Kremlin insiders warn,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/02/vladimir-putin-making-rash-secretive-decisions-face-defeats/↩
  5. [5]David Benfell, “Where does Vladimir Putin stop?” Not Housebroken, October 4, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/04/where-does-vladimir-putin-stop/↩
  6. [6]Joe Biden, quoted in Yasmeen Abutaleb, “Biden suggests Putin’s nuclear threats mean a ‘prospect of Armageddon,’” Washington Post, October 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/06/biden-putin-nuclear-armageddon/↩
  7. [7]Robyn Dixon, “As Ukraine war falters, Russians ask a risky question: Could Putin fall?” Washington Post, October 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/06/putin-successor-president-russia-war/; Julia Ioffe, “Fear and Loathing in Moscow,” Puck News, September 13, 2022, https://puck.news/fear-and-loathing-in-moscow/; Greg Miller et al., “Putin confronted by insider over Ukraine war, U.S. intelligence finds,” Washington Post, October 7, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/07/putin-inner-circle-dissent/↩
  8. [8]Julia Ioffe, “Fear and Loathing in Moscow,” Puck News, September 13, 2022, https://puck.news/fear-and-loathing-in-moscow/↩
  9. [9]Robyn Dixon, “As Ukraine war falters, Russians ask a risky question: Could Putin fall?” Washington Post, October 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/06/putin-successor-president-russia-war/↩
  10. [10]Julia Ioffe, “Fear and Loathing in Moscow,” Puck News, September 13, 2022, https://puck.news/fear-and-loathing-in-moscow/↩
  11. [11]Robyn Dixon, “As Ukraine war falters, Russians ask a risky question: Could Putin fall?” Washington Post, October 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/06/putin-successor-president-russia-war/↩
  12. [12]Nandita Bose and Pavel Polityuk, “Biden says Putin’s nuclear threat brings risk of ‘Armageddon,’” Reuters, October 7, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-forces-break-through-russian-defences-south-advance-east-2022-10-03/↩
  13. [13]Joe Biden, quoted in Yasmeen Abutaleb, “Biden suggests Putin’s nuclear threats mean a ‘prospect of Armageddon,’” Washington Post, October 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/06/biden-putin-nuclear-armageddon/↩
  14. [14]Lewis Page, “Why Putin would be a fool to go nuclear in Ukraine,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/02/why-putin-would-fool-go-nuclear-ukraine/↩
  15. [15]Joe Biden, quoted in Yasmeen Abutaleb, “Biden suggests Putin’s nuclear threats mean a ‘prospect of Armageddon,’” Washington Post, October 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/06/biden-putin-nuclear-armageddon/↩
  16. [16]George H. Nash, The Conservative Intellectual Movement in America Since 1945 (Wilmington, DE: Intercollegiate Studies Institute, 2006).↩
  17. [17]David Benfell, “Nuclear survival,” Not Housebroken, October 4, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/13/nuclear-survival/↩
  18. [18]Nandita Bose and Pavel Polityuk, “Biden says Putin’s nuclear threat brings risk of ‘Armageddon,’” Reuters, October 7, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-forces-break-through-russian-defences-south-advance-east-2022-10-03/↩
  19. [19]David Benfell, “Nuclear survival,” Not Housebroken, October 4, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/13/nuclear-survival/↩
  20. [20]Robyn Dixon, “Russia moves toward annexing Ukraine regions in a major escalation,” Washington Post, September 20, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/20/russia-referendum-annexation-luhansk-donetsk-kherson-ukraine/↩
  21. [21]David Benfell, “Nuclear survival,” Not Housebroken, October 4, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/13/nuclear-survival/↩

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