The likely end of Twitter

benfell

Twitter


Fig. 1. “Elon Musk shared a video of his entrance on his Twitter account.” Photograph attributed to Elon Musk, October 26, 2022, via the New York Post,[1] fair use.

This is still madness:

Senior personnel on the product teams [at Twitter] were asked to target a 50% reduction in headcount, a person familiar with the matter said this week. Engineers and director-level staff from Tesla Inc., the carmaker also run by Musk, reviewed the lists, the person said. Layoff lists were drawn up and ranked based on individuals’ contributions to Twitter’s code during their time at the company, the people said. The assessment was made by both Tesla personnel and Twitter managers.[2]

“[I]ndividuals’ contributions to Twitter’s code” is almost certainly being measured quantitatively and exceedingly unlikely—because there’s no way to evaluate for quality at scale—to be measured for quality. Which is to say that programmers who survive at Twitter will be programmers who generate vast quantities of crappy code.

It should go without saying that if this is how Elon Musk runs Tesla and SpaceX, then anyone getting on board with anything with either company has to out of their flipping mind. We won’t see these problems at these companies as rapidly simply because neither faces the pressures that Twitter now does.

But we will also see the consequences more rapidly at Twitter.

The risk for Twitter, as for any social network, is “unraveling,” [David] Garcia said. Something happens to raise the costs or reduce the benefits of being in the network. It could be a failed redesign of the interface or some kind of flame war (or a takeover by a divisive gazillionaire). So a few people who were only marginally attached drop out. Some of their friends now have less reason to participate, so they drop out, too, and so on.

This snowball doesn’t roll all the way down to zero users. There are tight-knit groups of people who stay in the network because their friends are still in it. But there aren’t enough of these clusters to entice advertisers, so the network hemorrhages money and eventually shuts down, Garcia said. He described the process in a paper, “Social Resilience in Online Communities: The Autopsy of Friendster,” that compared Friendster to Livejournal, Facebook, Orkut and Myspace. He wrote the paper in 2013 with Pavlin Mavrodiev and Frank Schweitzer, two colleagues from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, where he worked at the time.[3]

If Musk indeed implements his plan to make “blue checks” (verified user status) available to anyone with Twitter Blue (this includes me),[4] David Frum warns, correctly I think, that a user’s ability to tell good information from misinformation or disinformation will be degraded:[5]

But individuals cannot do everything themselves. They need some degree of institutional support. That has never been a Twitter excellence, and Musk is giving reason to fear that he will degrade the site further. Musk wants revenues from Twitter—that’s a reasonable expectation; the site is a business—but his first idea is a very bad one: to charge a fee for account verification. Musk seems to think of verification as a status marker, like a personalized license plate. It’s not. It’s a crucial tool against site abuse. Consider this:

A hurricane is on its way. Tweets begin to fly with information and misinformation. Which to believe? Right now, you can check the verified accounts of federal and state agencies, and know for certain that they are who they say they are. But what if some prankster can create an account that looks official, pay $20 a month or $8 a month or whatever the fee is to verify it, and then try to push rumors to deceive frightened people?

What kind of sicko would do such a thing? you wonder. Well, it happened during Hurricane Sandy: an account with a big following recklessly sowed panic—and to this day, that account remains active.[6]

Probably only Twitter knows how many Twitter Blue accounts it has. Probably only currently verified users know whether they will pony up to keep the long-coveted blue check. But some have already indicated they will not. There will be a dilution of value to the blue check such as Frum describes[7] at the very time that Musk starts charging for it,[8] and it certainly won’t be a reason to stay on Twitter if you’re already inclined to leave.

Twitter has bucketloads of debt from Musk’s acquisition so already starts from a perilous position.[9] It’s already losing its most prolific users[10] and is likely to be a less reliable source of information.[11] Hate speech seems to be running rampant, spooking advertisers,[12] even as Musk contemplates restoring violent tweeters to the platform.[13] And in a desperate attempt to stop the losses, Musk is cutting in half the workforce that keeps the platform running.[14] Elements of a downward spiral that has manifestly already begun are in place with no demonstrated way to pull out.

Thomas Barrabi, “Elon Musk barges into Twitter HQ as deal nears: ‘Let that sink in,’” New York Post, October 26, 2022, https://nypost.com/2022/10/26/elon-musk-barges-into-twitter-headquarters-as-deal-nears/

Rebecca Bellan, “Now Elon Musk says he won’t fire 75% of Twitter’s staff,” TechCrunch, October 26, 2022, https://techcrunch.com/2022/10/26/now-elon-musk-says-he-wont-fire-75-of-twitters-staff/

Sheila Dang, “Exclusive: Twitter is losing its most active users, internal documents show,” Reuters, October 26, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-where-did-tweeters-go-twitter-is-losing-its-most-active-users-internal-2022-10-25/

Elon Musk, “Entering Twitter HQ – let that sink in!” Twitter, October 26, 2022, https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1585341984679469056

Faiz Siddiqui and Elizabeth Dwoskin, “Top Twitter executives fired as Elon Musk takeover begins,” Washington Post, October 27, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/27/twitter-elon-musk/

Lauren Thomas and Alexa Corse, “Elon Musk Twitter Deal Completed, CEO and CFO Immediately Fired,” Wall Street Journal, October 27, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-completes-twitter-takeover-11666918031

Jake Johnson, “‘Dangerous for Us All’: Elon Musk, World’s Richest Man, Completes Twitter Takeover,” Common Dreams, October 28, 2022, https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/10/28/dangerous-us-all-elon-musk-worlds-richest-man-completes-twitter-takeover

Elon Musk, “the bird is freed,” Twitter, October 28, 2022, https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1585841080431321088

Jeremy C. Owens, “Elon Musk on the hook to pay more than $200 million to 3 fired Twitter execs,” MarketWatch, October 28, 2022, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-must-pay-more-than-200-million-to-3-fired-twitter-execs-11666927154

Greg Sargent, “The hidden danger lurking behind Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover,” Washington Post, October 28, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/28/elon-musk-twitter-takeover-russia-ukraine-war-big-tech/

Mira Sorvino, “Anyone using any form of hate speech will be immediately unfollowed, blocked, and either called out, not responded to or both. There is no place for hate speech here,” Twitter, October 28, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/29/twitter-alternatives/

Shonda Rhimes, “Not hanging around for whatever Elon has planned. Bye,” Twitter, October 29, 2022, https://twitter.com/shondarhimes/status/1586399694896390147

William D. Cohan, “Elon’s Clues and an M&A Hail Mary,” Puck News, October 30, 2022, https://puck.news/elons-clues-and-an-ma-hail-mary/

Alexa Corse and Salvador Rodriguez, “Twitter Is Drafting Broad Job Cuts in Whirlwind First Weekend Under Elon Musk,” Wall Street Journal, October 30, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/twitter-is-drafting-broad-job-cuts-days-after-elon-musks-takeover-11667143301

Dan Milmo, “Twitter trolls bombard platform after Elon Musk takeover,” Guardian, October 30, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/oct/30/twitter-trolls-bombard-platform-after-elon-musk-takeover

Dean Seal, “Elon Musk Ousts Twitter Board, Named Sole Director,” Wall Street Journal, October 31, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/musk-ousts-twitter-board-named-sole-director-11667234297

Elon Musk, “Twitter’s current lords & peasants system for who has or doesn’t have a blue checkmark is bullshit. . . .” Twitter, November 1, 2022, https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1587498907336118274

Elon Musk, “Price adjusted by country proportionate to purchasing power parity,” Twitter, November 1, 2022, https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1587499283573530625

Elon Musk, “You will also get . . .” Twitter, November 1, 2022, https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1587500060853424129

Elon Musk, “And paywall bypass for publishers willing to work with us,” Twitter, November 1, 2022, https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1587500624098246656

Elon Musk, “This will also give Twitter a revenue stream to reward content creators,” Twitter, November 1, 2022, https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1587505731611262976

Elon Musk, “There will be a secondary tag below the name for someone who is a public figure, which is already the case for politicians,” Twitter, November 1, 2022, https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1587527711228149765

Suzanne Vranica and Patience Haggin, “Ad Giants Advise Brands to Pause Spending on Elon Musk’s Twitter,” Wall Street Journal, November 1, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ad-giants-advise-brands-to-pause-spending-on-elon-musks-twitter-11667333021

Edward Ludlow and Kurt Wagner, “Musk Plans to Eliminate Half of Twitter Jobs to Cut Costs,” Bloomberg, November 2, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-02/musk-plans-to-eliminate-half-of-twitter-jobs-in-cost-cut-drive

Naomi Nix, “Elon Musk says Twitter won’t restore banned accounts for weeks,” Washington Post, November 2, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/11/02/musk-twitter-bans-trump/

David Frum, “Why I Logged Off Twitter,” Atlantic, November 3, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/elon-musk-twitter-takeover-changes/671980/

So-called ‘ridesharing’

Bezzle


Fig. 1. “Clarkdale Classic Gas Station, Clarkdale, Arizona,” Photograph by Alan Levine, October 28, 2016, via Wikimedia Commons, CC0.

Mark MacGann, the whistleblower behind the so-called Uber Files, said on Wednesday that the ride-hailing company seemed to be taking steps toward improving its work culture, but that its business model was still “absolutely” unsustainable.[15]

I’m guessing that Mark MacGann has a more thorough argument than what Reuters presents. From what I see here, it seems to assume that the independent contractor scam, more formally known as worker misclassification, will eventually be disallowed and that Uber depends upon this scam.[16]

Uber’s chief executive officer has claimed the company can be profitable under any labor model,[17] but while its numbers appear to be improving, the company still has yet to show an actual profit even with its present labor model[18] and the company has fought vociferously and expensively to preserve worker misclassification.

It does appear that Joe Biden’s administration is moving towards cracking down on worker misclassification and on company misrepresentations about driver earnings.[19] Whether that actually happens, of course, remains to be seen. As does an actual Uber profit.[20]

Verdant Peak Research, “Uber’s Q3 2022 Earnings: A Fresh Look At The Books,” Seeking Alpha, November 1, 2022, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4551553-uber-q3-2022-earnings-fresh-look-at-books

Sergio Goncalves, “Uber whistleblower says current business model ‘absolutely’ unsustainable,” Reuters, November 2, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/technology/uber-whistleblower-says-current-business-model-absolutely-unsustainable-2022-11-02/

Preetika Rana and Emily Glazer, “Lyft Plans to Lay Off About 700 Employees in Second Round of Job Cuts,” Wall Street Journal, November 3, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/lyft-plans-to-lay-off-hundreds-of-staffers-11667490092

Drivers


Fig. 2. Uber driver Boubacar Sow drives in New York. Photograph by Kevin Hagan via the Wall Street Journal, May 4, 2019,[21] fair use.

Sergio Goncalves, “Uber whistleblower says current business model ‘absolutely’ unsustainable,” Reuters, November 2, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/technology/uber-whistleblower-says-current-business-model-absolutely-unsustainable-2022-11-02/

Illiberalism


Fig. 1. Photograph by Joachim F. Thurn, August 1991, Bundesarchiv, B 145 Bild-F089030-0003, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0 DE.

Ishaan Tharoor, “After Israel’s election, it’s the Palestinians who need to vote,” Washington Post, November 2, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/11/02/palestinian-vote-election-israel/

Michael Bachner, “With 86% of votes tallied, Netanyahu headed for decisive comeback victory,” Times of Israel, November 2, 2022, https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-85-of-votes-tallied-netanyahu-on-verge-of-breaking-deadlock-regaining-power/

Shayndi Raice, “Benjamin Netanyahu Wins Another Shot at Leading Israel,” Wall Street Journal, November 3, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/israels-benjamin-netanyahu-edges-closer-to-election-win-11667470853

  1. [1]Thomas Barrabi, “Elon Musk barges into Twitter HQ as deal nears: ‘Let that sink in,’” New York Post, October 26, 2022, https://nypost.com/2022/10/26/elon-musk-barges-into-twitter-headquarters-as-deal-nears/↩
  2. [2]Edward Ludlow and Kurt Wagner, “Musk Plans to Eliminate Half of Twitter Jobs to Cut Costs,” Bloomberg, November 2, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-02/musk-plans-to-eliminate-half-of-twitter-jobs-in-cost-cut-drive↩
  3. [3]Peter Coy to Opinion list, “This is how social networks die,” New York Times, November 2, 2022, https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=228&emc=edit_pc_20221102&instance_id=76350&nl=peter-coy&productCode=PC&regi_id=97793637&segment_id=111813&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2F27e095e7-b9b6-5de9-907c-41fd32fd7191&user_id=087ade925ce15f15a24824418c4789ce↩
  4. [4]Elon Musk, “Twitter’s current lords & peasants system for who has or doesn’t have a blue checkmark is bullshit. . . .” Twitter, November 1, 2022, https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1587498907336118274↩
  5. [5]David Frum, “Why I Logged Off Twitter,” Atlantic, November 3, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/elon-musk-twitter-takeover-changes/671980/↩
  6. [6]David Frum, “Why I Logged Off Twitter,” Atlantic, November 3, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/elon-musk-twitter-takeover-changes/671980/↩
  7. [7]David Frum, “Why I Logged Off Twitter,” Atlantic, November 3, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/elon-musk-twitter-takeover-changes/671980/↩
  8. [8]Elon Musk, “Twitter’s current lords & peasants system for who has or doesn’t have a blue checkmark is bullshit. . . .” Twitter, November 1, 2022, https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1587498907336118274↩
  9. [9]William D. Cohan, “Elon’s Clues and an M&A Hail Mary,” Puck News, October 30, 2022, https://puck.news/elons-clues-and-an-ma-hail-mary/↩
  10. [10]Sheila Dang, “Exclusive: Twitter is losing its most active users, internal documents show,” Reuters, October 26, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-where-did-tweeters-go-twitter-is-losing-its-most-active-users-internal-2022-10-25/↩
  11. [11]David Frum, “Why I Logged Off Twitter,” Atlantic, November 3, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/elon-musk-twitter-takeover-changes/671980/↩
  12. [12]Suzanne Vranica and Patience Haggin, “Ad Giants Advise Brands to Pause Spending on Elon Musk’s Twitter,” Wall Street Journal, November 1, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ad-giants-advise-brands-to-pause-spending-on-elon-musks-twitter-11667333021↩
  13. [13]Naomi Nix, “Elon Musk says Twitter won’t restore banned accounts for weeks,” Washington Post, November 2, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/11/02/musk-twitter-bans-trump/↩
  14. [14]Edward Ludlow and Kurt Wagner, “Musk Plans to Eliminate Half of Twitter Jobs to Cut Costs,” Bloomberg, November 2, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-02/musk-plans-to-eliminate-half-of-twitter-jobs-in-cost-cut-drive↩
  15. [15]Sergio Goncalves, “Uber whistleblower says current business model ‘absolutely’ unsustainable,” Reuters, November 2, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/technology/uber-whistleblower-says-current-business-model-absolutely-unsustainable-2022-11-02/↩
  16. [16]Sergio Goncalves, “Uber whistleblower says current business model ‘absolutely’ unsustainable,” Reuters, November 2, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/technology/uber-whistleblower-says-current-business-model-absolutely-unsustainable-2022-11-02/↩
  17. [17]Lee Fang, “Uber CEO Admits Company Can Afford Labor Protections for Drivers,” Intercept, January 7, 2022, https://theintercept.com/2022/01/07/uber-drivers-labor-protections-dara-khosrowshahi-european-union/↩
  18. [18]Verdant Peak Research, “Uber’s Q3 2022 Earnings: A Fresh Look At The Books,” Seeking Alpha, November 1, 2022, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4551553-uber-q3-2022-earnings-fresh-look-at-books↩
  19. [19]Gabriel T. Rubin and David Harrison, “Biden Rule Would Add More Gig Workers to Company Payrolls,” Wall Street Journal, October 11, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/labor-department-proposes-changes-to-independent-contractor-rules-11665498794; Noam Scheiber, “Biden Proposal Could Lead to Employee Status for Gig Workers,” New York Times, October 11, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/11/business/economy/biden-gig-workers-contractors-employees.html; Levi Sumagaysay, “FTC sends a warning to Uber, Lyft, DoorDash and other ‘gig-work’ companies,” MarketWatch, September 16, 2022, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ftc-sends-a-warning-to-uber-lyft-doordash-and-other-gig-work-companies-11663279622↩
  20. [20]Cory Doctorow, “The Big Lie that keeps the Uber bezzle alive,” Pluralistic, February 11, 2022, https://pluralistic.net/2022/02/11/bezzlers-gonna-bezzle/; Hubert Horan, “Can Uber Ever Deliver? Part Twenty-Nine: Despite Massive Price Increases Uber Losses Top $31 Billion,” Naked Capitalism, February 11, 2022, https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/02/hubert-horan-can-uber-ever-deliver-part-twenty-nine-despite-massive-price-increases-uber-losses-top-31-billion.html↩
  21. [21]Eliot Brown, “Uber Wants to Be the Uber of Everything—But Can It Make a Profit?” Wall Street Journal, May 4, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/uber-wants-to-be-the-uber-of-everything-11556909866↩

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