Has the white Christian nationalist dream of a competitive authoritarian regime been deferred?

Pennsylvania

2022 election

Fig. 1. John Fetterman as mayor of Braddock, photograph uncredited and undated, via Next Pittsburgh,^[1] fair use.

Zionists will be unhappy with Summer Lee’s victory:

United Democracy Project, a political action committee tied to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, spent nearly $1 million in the final stretch of the campaign to air ads attacking [Summer] Lee. That prompted more than 240 members of Pittsburgh’s Jewish community to issue a public letter supporting Lee.^[2]

Samantha Melamed, “Voters cited abortion as a key issue in Pennsylvania’s first election since ‘Roe’ was overturned,” Philadelphia Inquirer, November 8, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/news/election-day-pennsylvania-abortion-reproductive-rights-voters-20221108.html

Brian C. Rittmeyer, “Summer Lee wins 12th District race, poised to become Pa.’s first Black woman in Congress,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, November 8, 2022, https://triblive.com/local/regional/lee-races-out-to-early-lead-over-doyle-in-12th-congressional-district/

Kris Maher, “Democrat Josh Shapiro Wins Pennsylvania Governor Race Over Doug Mastriano,” Wall Street Journal, November 9, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/election-midterms-2022/card/democrat-josh-shapiro-wins-pennsylvania-governor-race-over-doug-mastriano-rdDSLqwHlckU7Q5yZYF2

Aaron Zitner, “John Fetterman Wins Key Senate Race in Pennsylvania, Defeating Mehmet Oz,” Wall Street Journal, November 9, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/election-midterms-2022/card/oW3cFfkuo97s4Fa2Q9Sl

Final results are not in, but Republican predictions of a “red wave” have failed to materialize,^[3] and it appears the wildcards^[4] I pointed to, abortion and Donald Trump, are having an impact in staving off,^[5] at least for now, a white Christian nationalist competitive authoritarian regime nationally (it will be another story entirely, however, in some states^[6]).

Republican voters were most motivated by inflation; Democratic voters were most motivated by abortion.^[7]

Abortion

Fig. 2. Sign at demonstration in front of the U.S. Supreme Court, May 3, 2022. Janni Rye, via Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication.

In Republican-leaning Kentucky, an amendment explicitly stating that nothing in the state constitution creates a right to an abortion is projected for defeat with an estimated 86 percent of votes counted. Abortion rights groups took credit for a “historic win” in a press release at 12:08 a.m. this morning.^[8]

Melody Gutierrez, “Proposition 1 abortion rights ballot measure passes,” Los Angeles Times, November 8, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-11-08/2022-california-election-proposition-1-abortion-rights-results

Dan Balz, “The vaunted red wave never hit the shore in midterm elections,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/08/midterms-dissatisfied-voters-render-judgments-biden-republicans/

Rachel Roubein, “It was a pretty good Election Day for abortion rights,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/it-was-pretty-good-election-day-abortion-rights/

Donald Trump

Coup attempt

Fig. 3. Original: The White House. Derivative work: J. J. Messerly, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

The former president spent the final days of the campaign lashing out and even threatening Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose apparent interest in running against [Donald] Trump has puzzled him, according to advisers who spoke on the condition of anonymity to reflect private conversations. The Florida governor didn’t return fire, other than to hold his own campaign event on Saturday, competing with a Trump rally in Miami and further irking the former president.

Come election night, however, it was DeSantis holding the ebullient victory party, having won reelection in a 20-point landslide, almost 15 points better than Trump’s 2020 margin in their shared home state. At the party, DeSantis’s supporters chanted “Two more years!” — encouraging the governor to seek the presidency before finishing his second term. . . .

“Trump candidates were a drag on the party and the messaging of all our candidates,” said Bill Palatucci, a member of the Republican National Committee from New Jersey and Trump critic who said Democrats wanted to send a message against Trump and his supporters even though he wasn’t on the ballot. “We were constantly having to distance ourselves from their support of the former president.”^[9]

Isaac Arnsdorf and Josh Dawsey, “Trump absorbs GOP losses, while DeSantis glows with landslide victory,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/desantis-trump-2024-presidential-election/

Brian Slodysko, “Election takeaways: No sweep for the Republicans after all,” Associated Press, November 9, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-takeaways-9381d3aaff26d19da95506e045fcd6e1

Competitive authoritarian regime project

Fig. 4. President Lyndon B. Johnson, Martin Luther King, Jr., and Clarence Mitchell during signing ceremony of the voting rights act. Yoichi Okamoto, August 6, 1965, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Among the more than 150 election deniers projected to have won by midnight: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.) and Rep. Greg Pence (Ind.), the brother of former vice president Mike Pence.

But some of the most outspoken election deniers sustained defeat in races that had been seen as winnable for Republicans when the year began, including Doug Mastriano, who lost his bid for Pennsylvania governor. . . .

Winning candidates for governor, secretary of state and attorney general will assume offices with significant power overseeing American elections. Unofficial projections Tuesday showed that election deniers will amount to a sizable majority within the House Republican caucus, with enormous sway over the choice of the nation’s next speaker should Republicans claim control of the chamber. The speaker would in turn preside over the House in 2024, when the presidential vote could again be contested. . . .

Some of the most prominent election deniers on the ballot this year included state-level office seekers who would have broad power to influence the administration and possibly the outcomes of future elections: Kari Lake for Arizona governor, Jim Marchant for Nevada secretary of state and Matthew DePerno for Michigan attorney general.

All have offered unqualified support for Trump’s false claims of fraud in 2020. DePerno helped Trump try to overturn the result by spearheading unfounded claims that Dominion Voting Systems machines in Michigan had flipped votes from Trump to Biden. Lake has said her opponent, Democrat Katie Hobbs, should be jailed for certifying Biden’s Arizona victory. Marchant has promised to decertify Biden’s 2020 victory in Nevada and wants to impose hand counts across the state.

No winners had been projected in those races as of 1 a.m. Wednesday.^[10]

Reuters, “Russia’s Prigozhin admits interfering in U.S. elections,” November 7, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/russias-prigozhin-admits-interfering-us-elections-2022-11-07/

Ishaan Tharoor, “U.S. democracy slides toward ‘competitive authoritarianism,’” Washington Post, November 8, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/11/08/american-democracy-backsliding-competitive-authoritarianism/

Amy Gardner, “Election deniers score big wins, but also suffer significant setbacks,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/election-deniers-2020-house-senate-races/

Inquiry

Quantitative

Surveys

Fig. 1. Graph showing the deterioration of response rates by the Pew Research Center, February 27, 2019, fair use.^[11]

David Byler, “The (early) verdict: The polls were okay!” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/09/polls-early-midterms-verdict-improvement/

^[1]Kim Lyons, “Braddock Mayor John Fetterman keeps on truckin’ in his quest for the Senate,” Next Pittsburgh, March 11, 2016, https://nextpittsburgh.com/features/the-challengers-braddock-mayor-john-fetterman-keeps-on-truckin/↩
^[2]Brian C. Rittmeyer, “Summer Lee wins 12th District race, poised to become Pa.’s first Black woman in Congress,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, November 8, 2022, https://triblive.com/local/regional/lee-races-out-to-early-lead-over-doyle-in-12th-congressional-district/↩
^[3]Dan Balz, “The vaunted red wave never hit the shore in midterm elections,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/08/midterms-dissatisfied-voters-render-judgments-biden-republicans/; Brian Slodysko, “Election takeaways: No sweep for the Republicans after all,” Associated Press, November 9, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-takeaways-9381d3aaff26d19da95506e045fcd6e1 ↩
^[4]David Benfell, “The really, really, really wild wildcards in the 2022 and 2024 elections,” Not Housebroken, August 17, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/08/17/the-really-really-really-wild-wildcards-in-the-2022-and-2024-elections/↩
^[5]Isaac Arnsdorf and Josh Dawsey, “Trump absorbs GOP losses, while DeSantis glows with landslide victory,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/desantis-trump-2024-presidential-election/; Dan Balz, “The vaunted red wave never hit the shore in midterm elections,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/08/midterms-dissatisfied-voters-render-judgments-biden-republicans/; Rachel Roubein, “It was a pretty good Election Day for abortion rights,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/it-was-pretty-good-election-day-abortion-rights/; Brian Slodysko, “Election takeaways: No sweep for the Republicans after all,” Associated Press, November 9, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-takeaways-9381d3aaff26d19da95506e045fcd6e1 ↩
^[6]Amy Gardner, “Election deniers score big wins, but also suffer significant setbacks,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/election-deniers-2020-house-senate-races/↩
^[7]Rachel Roubein, “It was a pretty good Election Day for abortion rights,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/it-was-pretty-good-election-day-abortion-rights/↩
^[8]Rachel Roubein, “It was a pretty good Election Day for abortion rights,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/it-was-pretty-good-election-day-abortion-rights/↩
^[9]Isaac Arnsdorf and Josh Dawsey, “Trump absorbs GOP losses, while DeSantis glows with landslide victory,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/desantis-trump-2024-presidential-election/↩
^[10]Amy Gardner, “Election deniers score big wins, but also suffer significant setbacks,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/election-deniers-2020-house-senate-races/↩
^[11]Courtney Kennedy and Hannah Hartig, “Response rates in telephone surveys have resumed their decline,” Pew Research Center, February 27, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/27/response-rates-in-telephone-surveys-have-resumed-their-decline/↩

Irregular Bullshit