Should economic sanctions against Russia be more broadly targeted?

benfell

Ukraine


Fig. 1. “Destroyed Russian military vehicles located on the main street Khreshchatyk are seen as part of the celebration of the Independence Day of Ukraine in Kyiv, August 24.” Photograph by Gleb Garanich for Reuters, August 24, 2022,[1] fair use.

It’s a helluva way to get an education.

As The [Washington] Post’s Catherine Belton and Robyn Dixon reported late last year, scratch the surface of Russia’s economy and you’ll find that sanctions and other measures were hitting Russia where it hurt, “exacerbating equipment shortages for its army and hampering its ability to launch any new ground offensive or build new missiles, economists and Russian business executives said.”

It’s true much of the brunt of sanctions has been cushioned by Russia’s still-enormous energy exports, hence the positive accounts balance. But as Putin tried to use these exports to pressure and punish Europe, their power has been blunted. A new price cap that will soon go into effect looks set to hinder Russian exports further.[2]

My understanding is that the point of “Western sanctions and export controls” is not “to keep bottles of Johnnie Walker off a St. Petersburg shelf,”[3] but rather to target the oligarchs and politically powerful in Russia, to make them feel pain for Putin’s war—and this seems at least partially to have worked.[4] Apart from a chaotic military mobilization,[5] ordinary people have not much suffered.[6]

A criticism of economic sanctions, notably against Saddam Hussein in Iraq, had been that they hurt ordinary people while, if anything, enhancing economic (black market) opportunities for the elite, especially, in the case of Iraq, Hussein’s family. What we’re seeing with Russia appears to be at least a mostly successful attempt to avoid repeating that mistake.

Which means, as well, that there is little pain for ordinary people who support or at least acquiesce to Putin’s war.[7] And with Putin holding leverage to keep Russian elites, grumble though they may, in line,[8] it becomes harder to see how opposition to the war can gain much traction.

It may be that it isn’t enough to target the politically and economically powerful; the magic sauce here may involve a bit more pain for ordinary Russians, so that dissenting oligarchs might feel some wind at their backs.

Julia Ioffe, “The Putin Poison Pill,” Puck News, January 17, 2023, https://puck.news/the-putin-poison-pill/

Adam Taylor, “Putin says Russia’s economy beat expectations. Did sanctions fail?” Washington Post, January 18, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2023/01/18/sanctions-russia-fail-work-economy-expectations/

COVID-19 Pandemic


Fig. 1. Photograph by author, November 8, 2022.

“Since the beginning of the pandemic, our public health institutions were unable to persuade a large portion of the population to get vaccinated or boosted or wear a face mask,” says Dr. James Lawler, codirector of the Global Center for Health Security at the University of Nebraska Medical Center. “I think it would be hard to claim that trust and confidence in those institutions has improved since then.” According to data analyzed by Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania, politicized topics are the ones most likely to cause Americans to question the “recommendations of the federal health agencies.” Unfortunately, she says, “COVID polarized.”[9]

The answer to the question posed in Katherine Eban’s headline is, probably, no. And it isn’t just the U.S.[10]

Katherine Eban, “Can America Learn This Pandemic’s Lessons Before the Next One Hits?” Vanity Fair, January 17, 2023, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/01/us-covid-prepared-next-pandemic

Gilead

Evangelical Protestants


Fig. 1. “You shall have no other gods before me.”[11] Photograph posted to Twitter by Antonia Lee Donnelly, February 16, 2020,[12] fair use.

Ever since Donald Trump kicked off his third presidential bid in November, several high-profile evangelical leaders and activists have signaled that they want a new standard-bearer to lead the Republican Party into 2024. Unsurprisingly, these objections are not sitting well with the former president. “That’s a sign of disloyalty,” he told Real America’s Voice on Monday after host David Brody referenced Trump’s evangelical critics. “There’s great disloyalty in the world of politics, and that’s a sign of disloyalty.”

Trump then argued that he deserves the devotion of the religious right because “nobody has ever done more for ‘right to life’ than Donald Trump. I put three Supreme Court justices who all voted [to overturn Roe v. Wade]…. They won, they finally won.”[13]

Caleb Ecarma, “Donald Trump to Evangelicals: You Can’t Break Up With Me Because I’m Breaking Up With You First,” Vanity Fair, January 17, 2023, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/01/donald-trump-evangelicals-break-up

Donald Trump

Coup attempt


Fig. 1. “Jake Angeli (Qanon Shaman), seen holding a Qanon sign at the intersection of Bell Rd and 75th Ave in Peoria, Arizona, on 2020 October 15.” Photography by TheUnseen011101 [pseud.], October 15, 2020, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

It seems that evangelical Protestant leaders have noticed the 2022 midterm election results.[14]

Caleb Ecarma, “Donald Trump to Evangelicals: You Can’t Break Up With Me Because I’m Breaking Up With You First,” Vanity Fair, January 17, 2023, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/01/donald-trump-evangelicals-break-up

  1. [1]Reuters, “Ukraine puts destroyed Russian tanks on display in Kyiv,” August 25, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/ukraine-puts-destroyed-russian-tanks-on-idUSRTSALV9Q↩
  2. [2]Adam Taylor, “Putin says Russia’s economy beat expectations. Did sanctions fail?” Washington Post, January 18, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2023/01/18/sanctions-russia-fail-work-economy-expectations/↩
  3. [3]Adam Taylor, “Putin says Russia’s economy beat expectations. Did sanctions fail?” Washington Post, January 18, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2023/01/18/sanctions-russia-fail-work-economy-expectations/↩
  4. [4]Catherine Belton and Greg Miller, “Cracks emerge in Russian elite as tycoons start to bemoan invasion,” Washington Post, April 29, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/29/russia-oligarchs-ukraine-invasion-dissent/↩
  5. [5]Agence France-Presse, “‘Full chaos’: Over 100,000 Russians flood neighboring countries to flee army call-up,” Times of Israel, September 28, 2022, https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-chaos-over-100000-russians-flood-neighboring-countries-to-flee-army/; Robyn Dixon et al., “Russian mobilization prompts backlash as Ukraine annexation effort plows ahead,” Washington Post, September 25, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/25/russia-ukraine-mobilization-referendums/; Barbara Kollmeyer, “Putin’s partial draft announcement appears to spark scramble to leave Russia as flights fill up,” MarketWatch, September 21, 2022, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/putins-partial-draft-announcement-appears-to-spark-scramble-to-leave-russia-as-flights-fill-up-11663769382; Robert Mackey, “Russians Return to Streets to Protest Widening of Putin’s War on Ukraine,” Intercept, September 22, 2022, https://theintercept.com/2022/09/22/russia-ukraine-putin-war-protests/; Pjotr Sauer and Dan Sabbagh, “Border queues build as people flee Russia to escape Putin’s call-up,” Guardian, September 23, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/23/border-queues-build-as-people-flee-russia-to-escape-putin-call-up↩
  6. [6]Adam Taylor, “Putin says Russia’s economy beat expectations. Did sanctions fail?” Washington Post, January 18, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2023/01/18/sanctions-russia-fail-work-economy-expectations/↩
  7. [7]Julia Ioffe, “Mothers for Putin,” Puck News, April 21, 2022, https://puck.news/mothers-for-putin/; Joshua Yaffa, “Why Do So Many Russians Say They Support the War in Ukraine?” New Yorker, March 29, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/why-do-so-many-russians-say-they-support-the-war-in-ukraine↩
  8. [8]Catherine Belton and Greg Miller, “Cracks emerge in Russian elite as tycoons start to bemoan invasion,” Washington Post, April 29, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/29/russia-oligarchs-ukraine-invasion-dissent/↩
  9. [9]Katherine Eban, “Can America Learn This Pandemic’s Lessons Before the Next One Hits?” Vanity Fair, January 17, 2023, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/01/us-covid-prepared-next-pandemic↩
  10. [10]Katherine Eban, “Can America Learn This Pandemic’s Lessons Before the Next One Hits?” Vanity Fair, January 17, 2023, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/01/us-covid-prepared-next-pandemic↩
  11. [11]Exod. 20:3.↩
  12. [12]Antonia Lee Donnelly, “Now I've seen everything,” Twitter, February 17, 2020, https://twitter.com/DonnellyAntonia/status/1229227422836559873↩
  13. [13]Caleb Ecarma, “Donald Trump to Evangelicals: You Can’t Break Up With Me Because I’m Breaking Up With You First,” Vanity Fair, January 17, 2023, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/01/donald-trump-evangelicals-break-up↩
  14. [14]Caleb Ecarma, “Donald Trump to Evangelicals: You Can’t Break Up With Me Because I’m Breaking Up With You First,” Vanity Fair, January 17, 2023, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/01/donald-trump-evangelicals-break-up↩

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