The irresistible force and the immovable object in Ukraine

Ukraine


Fig. 1. “Destroyed Russian military vehicles located on the main street Khreshchatyk are seen as part of the celebration of the Independence Day of Ukraine in Kyiv, August 24.” Photograph by Gleb Garanich for Reuters, August 24, 2022,[1] fair use.

In part following up on Fiona Hill and Angela Stent’s analysis a couple days ago,[2] Ishaan Tharoor argues that Russia is suffering serious losses in Ukraine and that Vladimir Putin’s ambitions are beyond his reach. At the same time, however, there is skepticism first, that Ukraine can fully push Russia off Ukrainian territory[3] as Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, argues “it would require essentially the collapse of the Russian military;”[4] and second, about the willingness of voters in the West to continue supporting Ukraine against an expected (but yet to materialize) economic recession.[5] Putin has, according to Hill and Stent, indeed been counting on the latter support to falter,[6] although he was also believed to be expecting it to falter with energy prices over the winter—and it hasn’t.[7]

While an argument is certainly made about Russian (and Putin’s) “iron will,”[8] that “will” has so far only fed a meat grinder[9] and a collapse of the Russian military could be on the horizon: Tharoor quotes Peter Dickinson of the Atlantic Council saying that “[i]f current casualty rates are any indication, the [expected Russian spring offensive] could result in unprecedented loss of life and spark a complete collapse in morale among Russia’s already demoralized mobilized troops.”[10]

I can’t tell you how all this plays—the trope of an irresistible force meeting an immovable object comes to mind. All I can do is to observe that a mistake made from the beginning has been to underestimate Ukraine.

Fiona Hill and Angela Stent, “The Kremlin’s Grand Delusions,” Foreign Affairs, February 15, 2023, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/kremlins-grand-delusions

Dick Nixon [Justin Sherin], “Putin’s Strengths,” Patreon, February 16, 2023, https://www.patreon.com/posts/putins-strengths-78789256

Ishaan Tharoor, “A year after invasion, has Russia already lost?” Washington Post, February 17, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2023/02/17/russia-strategy-one-year-lost/


  1. [1]Reuters, “Ukraine puts destroyed Russian tanks on display in Kyiv,” August 25, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/ukraine-puts-destroyed-russian-tanks-on-idUSRTSALV9Q
  2. [2]Fiona Hill and Angela Stent, “The Kremlin’s Grand Delusions,” Foreign Affairs, February 15, 2023, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/kremlins-grand-delusions
  3. [3]Ishaan Tharoor, “A year after invasion, has Russia already lost?” Washington Post, February 17, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2023/02/17/russia-strategy-one-year-lost/
  4. [4]Mark A. Milley, quoted in Ishaan Tharoor, “A year after invasion, has Russia already lost?” Washington Post, February 17, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2023/02/17/russia-strategy-one-year-lost/
  5. [5]Dick Nixon [Justin Sherin], “Putin’s Strengths,” Patreon, February 16, 2023, https://www.patreon.com/posts/putins-strengths-78789256; Ishaan Tharoor, “A year after invasion, has Russia already lost?” Washington Post, February 17, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2023/02/17/russia-strategy-one-year-lost/
  6. [6]Fiona Hill and Angela Stent, “The Kremlin’s Grand Delusions,” Foreign Affairs, February 15, 2023, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/kremlins-grand-delusions
  7. [7]Julia Ioffe, “The Putin Super Power Myth,” Puck, January 24, 2023, https://puck.news/the-putin-super-power-myth/; Julia Ioffe, “Putin’s Plot Against America,” Puck, January 31, 2023, https://puck.news/putins-plot-against-america/
  8. [8]Dick Nixon [Justin Sherin], “Putin’s Strengths,” Patreon, February 16, 2023, https://www.patreon.com/posts/putins-strengths-78789256
  9. [9]Fiona Hill and Angela Stent, “The Kremlin’s Grand Delusions,” Foreign Affairs, February 15, 2023, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/kremlins-grand-delusions; Dick Nixon [Justin Sherin], “Putin’s Strengths,” Patreon, February 16, 2023, https://www.patreon.com/posts/putins-strengths-78789256; Ishaan Tharoor, “A year after invasion, has Russia already lost?” Washington Post, February 17, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2023/02/17/russia-strategy-one-year-lost/
  10. [10]Peter Dickinson, quoted in Ishaan Tharoor, “A year after invasion, has Russia already lost?” Washington Post, February 17, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2023/02/17/russia-strategy-one-year-lost/

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