Yevgeny Prigozhin’s fateful day likely draws near

benfell

Imperialism

Russia


Fig. 1. Historic Russian empire, from the New York Times, possibly March 6, 2014, fair use.[1]

[W]ith the raids into southern Russia this week, the spotlight has been turned on both the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps, another group composed of Russians who now say they are fighting against [Vladimir] Putin.[2]

These are not all your favorite Russians. Some look for all the world like far right-wing extremists.[3]

That said, I have heard it said before that Russia itself is an empire, even before Soviet additions, even before czarist expansions (figure 1), let alone Putin’s imperialist aspirations.[4] If Yevgeny Prigozhin is literally right in warning of a revolution, not, as I very strongly suspect, actually very strongly projecting his own intentions onto a population grieving war losses,[5] then Russia might be in for years of tumult. We’ve been hearing from the right-wingers with the Ukraine war;[6] I would expect to hear as well from leftists who are, for now, and necessarily, laying very, very low. And I would expect to hear from more long-conquered subjects of Russia, the empire it already is.

The original name of Julia Ioffe’s newsletter to Puck News subscribers was “Tomorrow Will Be Worse.” This, of course, was specifically referring to Putin’s regime and, as many thought possible at the time, a soon-to-be-conquered Ukraine. And indeed, if Putin falls, and especially if I am wrong and Prigozhin succeeds him, a succeeding regime might indeed be considerably worse.

But remember who we aren’t hearing from. We know not what tricks may lie up their sleeves. It is conceivable that depending on how or if they strike, we might never know.

Sometimes, you just have to wait, patiently, for the players to lay down their cards. Then we see who was bullshitting bluffing farthest from the most dismal hand.

I think this is one of those occasions where we just have to wait, patiently. Or impatiently if you insist, but it won’t change a thing. The players will play.

Andrew Roth, “‘We are Russians just like you’: anti-Putin militias enter the spotlight,” Guardian, May 24, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/24/russian-anti-putin-militias-belgorod

Ukraine


Fig. 1. “Destroyed Russian military vehicles located on the main street Khreshchatyk are seen as part of the celebration of the Independence Day of Ukraine in Kyiv, August 24.” Photograph by Gleb Garanich for Reuters, August 24, 2022,[7] fair use.

I could very easily be completely full of shit here, and I’ll even apologize for that in advance, but the more I see of Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose name is the only one I’ve seen mentioned as a possible replacement for Vladimir Putin,[8] the more I sense he’s just too clumsy to replace Putin. Now, he’s warning of a “revolution if [Russia’s] leadership does not improve its handling of the war [against Ukraine],”[9] which sounds to me about as obvious a way of telegraphing coup intentions as there is.

And it is all also to say that all the murmuring about Prigozhin attempting a coup may not be in vain,[10] because yes, I think that’s what, given the opportunity, he will fail attempting. I just don’t think Prigozhin has the finesse and while I think it may be difficult for Putin,[11] the day draws near when he’ll have to do something about Prigozhin to prevent it even getting that far.

Of greater interest may be the follow-up on Russian (minority[12]) rebels striking inside Russia. Based on the Russian military response to that raid,[13] it appears that Putin still doesn’t have a fighting force.

Of course, that’s just what Prigozhin claims will do Putin in lead to revolution[14]—and as far as that goes, he might not be wrong, as long as he stops there, which is precisely what I don’t think he’ll do.

Julian Borger, “Wagner chief warns of revolution and says 20,000 fighters killed in Bakhmut,” Guardian, May 24, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/24/wagner-head-warns-of-revolution-after-claiming-20000-fighters-killed-in-bakhmut

  1. [1]New York Times, “Ukraine Crisis in Maps,” n.d., http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/02/27/world/europe/ukraine-divisions-crimea.html↩
  2. [2]Andrew Roth, “‘We are Russians just like you’: anti-Putin militias enter the spotlight,” Guardian, May 24, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/24/russian-anti-putin-militias-belgorod↩
  3. [3]Andrew Roth, “‘We are Russians just like you’: anti-Putin militias enter the spotlight,” Guardian, May 24, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/24/russian-anti-putin-militias-belgorod↩
  4. [4]Julian O’Shaughnessy, “I’m reconquering just like Peter the Great, insists Vladimir Putin,” Times, June 10, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/president-putin-creates-police-department-to-impose-martial-law-xqhlt79fn; Reuters, “Hailing Peter the Great, Putin draws parallel with mission to ‘return’ Russian lands,” June 9, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hailing-peter-great-putin-draws-parallel-with-mission-return-russian-lands-2022-06-09/; Ishaan Tharoor, “Putin makes his imperial pretensions clear,” Washington Post, June 13, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/13/putin-imperial-russia-empire-ukraine/↩
  5. [5]Julian Borger, “Wagner chief warns of revolution and says 20,000 fighters killed in Bakhmut,” Guardian, May 24, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/24/wagner-head-warns-of-revolution-after-claiming-20000-fighters-killed-in-bakhmut↩
  6. [6]Dan Ladden-Hall, “Prigozhin Says Jealous Kremlin Deliberately Stopped Wagner Taking Bakhmut,” March 16, 2023, https://www.thedailybeast.com/prigozhin-says-jealous-kremlin-deliberately-stopped-wagner-taking-bakhmut; Pjotr Sauer, “‘We have already lost’: far-right Russian bloggers slam Kremlin over army response,” Guardian, September 8, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/08/we-have-already-lost-far-right-russian-bloggers-slam-kremlin-over-army-response; Allan Woods, “Why Vladimir Putin isn’t shutting down the outspoken ‘thug’ running the Wagner Group,” Toronto Star, May 15, 2023, https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2023/05/15/why-vladimir-putin-isnt-shutting-down-the-outspoken-thug-running-the-wagner-group.html↩
  7. [7]Reuters, “Ukraine puts destroyed Russian tanks on display in Kyiv,” August 25, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/ukraine-puts-destroyed-russian-tanks-on-idUSRTSALV9Q↩
  8. [8]Julia Ioffe, “‘Putin’s Chef’: The Man Behind Russia’s Shadow Army,” Puck, December 13, 2022, https://puck.news/putins-chef-the-man-behind-russias-shadow-army/; Maria Katamadze, “Can Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin challenge Putin?” Deutschewelle, February 19, 2023, https://www.dw.com/en/can-wagner-head-yevgeny-prigozhin-challenge-putin/a-64744266; Allan Woods, “Why Vladimir Putin isn’t shutting down the outspoken ‘thug’ running the Wagner Group,” Toronto Star, May 15, 2023, https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2023/05/15/why-vladimir-putin-isnt-shutting-down-the-outspoken-thug-running-the-wagner-group.html↩
  9. [9]Julian Borger, “Wagner chief warns of revolution and says 20,000 fighters killed in Bakhmut,” Guardian, May 24, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/24/wagner-head-warns-of-revolution-after-claiming-20000-fighters-killed-in-bakhmut↩
  10. [10]Julia Ioffe, “‘Putin’s Chef’: The Man Behind Russia’s Shadow Army,” Puck, December 13, 2022, https://puck.news/putins-chef-the-man-behind-russias-shadow-army/; Maria Katamadze, “Can Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin challenge Putin?” Deutschewelle, February 19, 2023, https://www.dw.com/en/can-wagner-head-yevgeny-prigozhin-challenge-putin/a-64744266; Allan Woods, “Why Vladimir Putin isn’t shutting down the outspoken ‘thug’ running the Wagner Group,” Toronto Star, May 15, 2023, https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2023/05/15/why-vladimir-putin-isnt-shutting-down-the-outspoken-thug-running-the-wagner-group.html↩
  11. [11]Allan Woods, “Why Vladimir Putin isn’t shutting down the outspoken ‘thug’ running the Wagner Group,” Toronto Star, May 15, 2023, https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2023/05/15/why-vladimir-putin-isnt-shutting-down-the-outspoken-thug-running-the-wagner-group.html↩
  12. [12]Theo Merz, “Ethnic minorities in Russia are campaigning for the breakup of the country,” World, May 22, 2023, https://theworld.org/stories/2023-05-22/ethnic-minorities-russia-are-campaigning-breakup-country; Tom Mutch, “Soldiers Make Secret Pact to ‘Destroy’ Putin’s Empire From Within,” Daily Beast, April 9, 2023, https://www.thedailybeast.com/chechen-fighters-make-war-pact-with-ukrainian-troops-to-fight-vladimir-putin; Andrew Roth, “‘We are Russians just like you’: anti-Putin militias enter the spotlight,” Guardian, May 24, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/24/russian-anti-putin-militias-belgorod↩
  13. [13]Julian Borger, “Wagner chief warns of revolution and says 20,000 fighters killed in Bakhmut,” Guardian, May 24, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/24/wagner-head-warns-of-revolution-after-claiming-20000-fighters-killed-in-bakhmut↩
  14. [14]Julian Borger, “Wagner chief warns of revolution and says 20,000 fighters killed in Bakhmut,” Guardian, May 24, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/24/wagner-head-warns-of-revolution-after-claiming-20000-fighters-killed-in-bakhmut↩

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