Vladimir Putin must surely now be getting desperate

benfell

Imperialism

Russia

Ukraine


Fig. 1. “Destroyed Russian military vehicles located on the main street Khreshchatyk are seen as part of the celebration of the Independence Day of Ukraine in Kyiv, August 24.” Photograph by Gleb Garanich for Reuters, August 24, 2022,[1] fair use.

It’s a very different picture from the one Julia Ioffe offered from Munich.[2] Patrick Tucker senses that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization might well choose to intervene in Ukraine.[3]

Tucker’s report is certainly unexpected. The assumption has been that Ukraine would not join NATO because of Russian sensibilities,[4] NATO would avoid combat with a nuclear power, because it doesn’t want nuclear war,[5] and the pretext that NATO would use to intervene is unclear.[6] Logically, Vladimir Putin’s threat to go nuclear[7] does not substantively diminish with time; the fear has rather been that as the war continues to go poorly for Putin,[8] the chance he might desperately go nuclear increases.

Putin faces a much-too-obvious challenge from Yevgeny Prigozhin over the Russian military establishment’s handling of the war, because the war hasn’t been going well for Russia, with many suspecting Prigozhin wants Putin’s job. For a while, Prigozhin’s name was the only one I’d heard mentioned in the context of a possible coup,[9] but it’s been reported that various “clans” are jockeying for position to replace him.[10] He’s clearly running out of time.[11]

Tucker’s reporting suggests that NATO politicians finally understand[12] what I and others have been arguing from the outset, that Putin cannot be allowed to win the war.[13] There is good reason for skepticism on this point and frankly, it’s Ioffe I trust:

The questions are myriad. How, for example, do you rebuild a country while it is being actively destroyed by a foreign army? How do you understand the future of a country that has kicked out all real journalists, making the present reality so hard to understand? How do you reimagine a country whose territorial integrity is very much up in the air, or one whose dictator seems more powerful at home than ever?[14]

Russia isn’t done. We see that it isn’t done. Even if any possibility of victory has escaped Russia’s grasp, it isn’t done. And while it’s possible to suggest with regard to Putin that it’s always darkest before the dawn, we really don’t know that we’re at that point; we really don’t know that Prigozhin, let alone any other rivals, can dislodge Putin.

If Tucker is right, it could be that NATO is sensing a vulnerability that is unclear to the rest of us. But Ioffe isn’t seeing it:

In fact, Ukraine’s ascension [to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and to the European Union] seems even further away now than it was before, given Washington’s reddest of red lines: not getting into a hot conflict with Russia. That would be all but guaranteed should Ukraine join while the threat of Russian attack remains anywhere on the horizon, even if the war were to end tomorrow.[15]

Read Ioffe patiently, however, and it emerges that some NATO leaders do indeed seem to understand that Putin cannot be allowed to win. Some is not all, however, and Ioffe is still pointing at “Washington’s reddest of red lines: not getting into a hot conflict with Russia.”[16] That probably means Tucker is wrong. Probably.

Julia Ioffe, “Yalta 2023: Planning for Life After the Russian Invasion,” Puck, May 30, 2023, https://puck.news/yalta-2023-planning-for-life-after-the-russian-invasion/

Patrick Tucker, “Estonia Will Ask For a Clearer Path for Ukraine to Join NATO,” Defense One, May 30, 2023, https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/05/estonia-will-ask-clearer-path-ukraine-join-nato/386879/

Gilead

Donald Trump

Coup attempt


Fig. 2. “Jake Angeli (Qanon Shaman), seen holding a Qanon sign at the intersection of Bell Rd and 75th Ave in Peoria, Arizona, on 2020 October 15.” Photography by TheUnseen011101 [pseud.], October 15, 2020, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Bess Levin, “Report: Trump’s Lawyer Revealed Some Unfortunate Things for Trump in Classified-Docs Case,” Vanity Fair, May 30, 2023, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/05/donald-trump-evan-corcoran-documents-investigation

Asawin Suebsaeng and Adam Rawnsley, “Team Trump Scrambles to Unmask the Feds Investigating Him,” Rolling Stone, May 30, 2023, https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-fbi-justice-department-purge-1234743318/

COVID-19 Pandemic


Fig. 3. Photograph by author, November 8, 2022.

Joe Leahy and Clive Cookson, “China investigated Covid lab leak claims, says top scientist,” Financial Times, May 30, 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/cd633f52-c2d2-4ee4-b940-d1bef6a5d910

  1. [1]Reuters, “Ukraine puts destroyed Russian tanks on display in Kyiv,” August 25, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/ukraine-puts-destroyed-russian-tanks-on-idUSRTSALV9Q↩
  2. [2]Julia Ioffe, “Peace & Gossip in Munich,” Puck, February 21, 2023, https://puck.news/peace-gossip-in-munich/↩
  3. [3]Patrick Tucker, “Estonia Will Ask For a Clearer Path for Ukraine to Join NATO,” Defense One, May 30, 2023, https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/05/estonia-will-ask-clearer-path-ukraine-join-nato/386879/↩
  4. [4]Anthony Faiola, “How joining NATO and the E.U. became Ukraine’s unattainable dream,” Washington Post, February 17, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/02/17/ukraine-nato-eu-european-union-membership/; Isobel Koshiw, Jon Henley, and Julian Borger, “Ukraine will not join Nato, says Zelenskiy, as shelling of Kyiv continues,” Guardian, March 15, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/15/kyiv-facing-dangerous-moment-amid-signs-of-russias-tightening-grip↩
  5. [5]Simon Lewis and Sabine Siebold, “NATO rejects Ukraine no-fly zone, says ‘not part of this’ war,” Reuters, March 4, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/nato-meets-ukraine-calls-no-fly-zone-hinder-russia-2022-03-04/; Brett Samuels, “Biden: Direct conflict between NATO and Russia would be ‘World War III,’” Hill, March 11, 2022, https://thehill.com/policy/international/597842-biden-direct-conflict-between-nato-and-russia-would-be-world-war-iii↩
  6. [6]Patrick Tucker, “Estonia Will Ask For a Clearer Path for Ukraine to Join NATO,” Defense One, May 30, 2023, https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/05/estonia-will-ask-clearer-path-ukraine-join-nato/386879/↩
  7. [7]Yuras Karmanau, “Putin puts nuclear forces on high alert, escalating tensions,” Associated Press, February 27, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-business-europe-moscow-2e4e1cf784f22b6afbe5a2f936725550; Tom Nichols, “How Should the U.S. Respond to Putin’s Nuclear Provocation?” Atlantic, February 27, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-the-west-should-respond-to-putins-nuclear-provocation/622943/; Adam Taylor, “War in Ukraine enters a new phase, even more unpredictable and dangerous than the last,” Washington Post, March 1, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/03/01/ukraine-putin-nuclear-sanctions/; Robin Wright, “What Does Putin’s Nuclear Sabre Rattling Mean?” New Yorker, March 1, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-does-putins-nuclear-sabre-rattling-mean↩
  8. [8]Patrick Tucker, “Without A New Draft, Russian Offensive Operations Are Over, US Intel Chiefs Say,” Defense One, May 4, 2023, https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/05/without-new-draft-russian-offensive-operations-are-over-us-intel-chiefs-say/386003/↩
  9. [9]Julia Ioffe, “‘Putin’s Chef’: The Man Behind Russia’s Shadow Army,” Puck, December 13, 2022, https://puck.news/putins-chef-the-man-behind-russias-shadow-army/; Maria Katamadze, “Can Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin challenge Putin?” Deutschewelle, February 19, 2023, https://www.dw.com/en/can-wagner-head-yevgeny-prigozhin-challenge-putin/a-64744266; Allan Woods, “Why Vladimir Putin isn’t shutting down the outspoken ‘thug’ running the Wagner Group,” Toronto Star, May 15, 2023, https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2023/05/15/why-vladimir-putin-isnt-shutting-down-the-outspoken-thug-running-the-wagner-group.html↩
  10. [10]Vazha Tavberidze, “Interview: The ‘War Of Clans For Putin’s Throne Has Begun,’” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, May 24, 2023, https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-clans-war-russia-interview-succession-ukraine-war/32425962.html↩
  11. [11]Samantha de Bendern, “Putin claims he’s cancelling public celebrations over safety fears. The truth is more humiliating,” Guardian, May 2, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/02/putin-cancelling-public-celebrations-safety-fears-ukraine-war; Patrick Tucker, “Without A New Draft, Russian Offensive Operations Are Over, US Intel Chiefs Say,” Defense One, May 4, 2023, https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/05/without-new-draft-russian-offensive-operations-are-over-us-intel-chiefs-say/386003/↩
  12. [12]Patrick Tucker, “Estonia Will Ask For a Clearer Path for Ukraine to Join NATO,” Defense One, May 30, 2023, https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/05/estonia-will-ask-clearer-path-ukraine-join-nato/386879/↩
  13. [13]David Benfell, “Where does Vladimir Putin stop?” Not Housebroken, November 16, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/04/where-does-vladimir-putin-stop/↩
  14. [14]Julia Ioffe, “Yalta 2023: Planning for Life After the Russian Invasion,” Puck, May 30, 2023, https://puck.news/yalta-2023-planning-for-life-after-the-russian-invasion/↩
  15. [15]Julia Ioffe, “Yalta 2023: Planning for Life After the Russian Invasion,” Puck, May 30, 2023, https://puck.news/yalta-2023-planning-for-life-after-the-russian-invasion/↩
  16. [16]Julia Ioffe, “Yalta 2023: Planning for Life After the Russian Invasion,” Puck, May 30, 2023, https://puck.news/yalta-2023-planning-for-life-after-the-russian-invasion/↩

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