Now forecasting a Donald Trump victory in November

Update, May 14, 2024: This post has been updated under the Donald Trump coup attempt section. Since I’m back in here anyway, I’m adding the section on Joe Biden; it won’t do anybody any good because the resource is in email, but if you happen to get Harold Meyerson’s newsletter, you should take a look. It turns out he makes some of the same points, albeit for different reasons, I do. (He and I are unlikely—extraordinarily unlikely—to be alone in assessing that poor people and people of color aren’t feeling any better off.[1] For many in these groups, the White House will have zero credibility on any claim to have improved their lives.)

Update, May 15, 2024: Harold Meyerson’s post is now available on line.[2] References in this post are being modified accordingly.

Electric vehicles

Fig. 1. “A Toyota bZ4X electric sport utility vehicle: EVs currently on the market are fitted with batteries that use liquid lithium-ion electrolytes.” Photograph by Kiyoshi Ota, n.d., via Financial Times, fair use.

I think I fail to appreciate Elon Musk’s sense of humor:

So successful is [Tesla’s] Supercharger network that, over the course of last year, virtually every other automaker that sells or plans to sell [electric vehicles] in the US has announced it will drop the CCS1 connector for the J3400 standard, originally developed by Tesla. But those announcements were about more than just switching plugs. Each time, the OEM also revealed it had negotiated access for its customers to the Supercharger network.

That made [Elon] Musk’s dismissal of the entire team responsible so hard to fathom. While the Supercharger network accounts for only about 5 percent of Tesla’s revenues, that percent is poised to grow as more OEMs gain access. And although the charging experience for Tesla EVs at Superchargers is usually flawless, that’s because it’s optimized for a single make of car with just five different models; there’s no guarantee that will prove true when cars from other brands try to charge.[3]

Jonathan Gitlin, “Tesla does 180 on Superchargers, rehiring laid-off staff amid new plans,” Ars Technica, May 13, 2024,




Fig. 2. The ruins of a terminal at the Gaza airport. Image by Said Khatib (Agence France-Presse) on September 9, 2018, via the Times of Israel,[4] fair use.

Emanuel Fabian, “IDF tells 100,000 Palestinians to evacuate eastern Rafah ahead of planned offensive,” Times of Israel, May 6, 2024,

Harold Meyerson, “Who Created the Israel-Palestine Conflict?” American Prospect, May 6, 2024,

Abeer Salman et al., “Israel says Rafah operations will go ahead as Hamas deal remains ‘far’ from meeting its demands,” Cable News Network, May 6, 2024,

Thomas J. Sugrue, “College Presidents Behaving Badly,” Chronicle of Higher Education, May 6, 2024,

Ishaan Tharoor, “What lies beneath Gaza’s rubble and ruin,” Washington Post, May 6, 2024,

Alexander Ward, Lara Seligman, and Erin Banco, “US fears Israel speeding up Rafah invasion timeline after deadly Hamas attack,” Politico, May 6, 2024,

John Hudson, “U.S. paused shipment of thousands of bombs to Israel amid Rafah rift,” Washington Post, May 7, 2024,

Yasmeen Abutaleb, “Biden says he will cut off offensive weapons if Israel invades Rafah,” Washington Post, May 8, 2024,

Jordan Fabian and Galit Altstein, “US Pauses Arms Shipment to Israel Over Rafah Invasion Plans,” Bloomberg, May 8, 2024,

Jacob Magid, “US confirms holding up sale of heavy bombs it feared Israel would use in Rafah,” Times of Israel, May 8, 2024,

Barak Ravid, “Blinken report expected to criticize Israel, but say it isn’t breaking weapons terms,” Axios, May 9, 2024,

Ishaan Tharoor, “Israel puts Rafah in the eye of the storm,” Washington Post, May 9, 2024,

John Hudson, “U.S. says Israel may have violated humanitarian law using American weapons,” Washington Post, May 10, 2024,

Toluse Olorunnipa and Jacqueline Alemany, “Biden’s isolation grows as Gaza report both criticizes and clears Israel,” Washington Post, May 10, 2024,

Times of Israel, “Report: State Department set to confirm Israel not breaking international law in Gaza,” May 10, 2024,

United Nations News, “UN General Assembly presses Security Council to give ‘favourable consideration’ to full Palestinian membership,” May 10, 2024,

Brett Wilkins, “Biden ‘Moving the Goal Post’ With Threat to Withhold Bombs from Israel,” Inter Press Service, May 10, 2024,

Jason Burke, Lorenzo Tondo, and Malak A. Tantesh, “Terrified families flee Rafah as Israel set to open all-out assault,” Guardian, May 11, 2024,

Richard Luscombe and Edward Helmore, “‘Strategic and moral mistakes’: US politicians step up condemnation of Israel,” Guardian, May 12, 2024,

David Remnick, “An Israeli Newspaper Presents Truths Readers May Prefer to Avoid,” New Yorker, May 12, 2024,

Ishaan Tharoor, “Why Spain will recognize a Palestinian state,” Washington Post, May 13, 2024,



Donald Trump
Hush money

Fig. 3. Cartoon by Jesse Duquette, undated, via “Minneapple23” [pseud.] on Imgur, April 1, 2023, fair use.

Kyle Cheney, Erica Orden, and Ben Feuerherd, “The reinvention of Michael Cohen,” Politico, May 13, 2024,

Politico, “Trump feared campaign ‘disaster’ if Daniels story got out, Cohen says,” May 13, 2024,

Coup attempt


Fig. 4. Donald Trump still has his fans. Photograph along Washington Road in Upper Saint Clair, Pennsylvania, by author, April 28, 2024.

Update, May 14, 2024: The following text has been strengthened to more accurately reflect what I meant to say. (Yes, words sometimes, indeed much too often, fail me.)

So, you missed out on all the fun on January 6, 2021? Now you can rent or buy a documentary on Amazon (not a sponsored link, but one I’m hoping is right) that includes footage from that day shot by a crew that was intending to film something a whole lot more peaceful.[5]

Gotta tell you, it does sound like a film to see, though it may be rather intense at some points.[6] I’m afraid I won’t have time (or money). (And maybe that’s just as well.)

I think my assessment of the U.S. presidential election in November is that the electoral college will likely put Donald Trump over, quite possibly by a landslide. Trump can’t hurt himself any more than he already has. His base simply applauds when everything he says is fascist bullshit.

Joe Biden is bleeding out over Gaza. He doesn’t even realize the harm he’s doing to himself on this issue and his refusal to listen will have wider consequences than Gaza. The Democrats generally have done not nearly enough to earn people’s votes—they’re in denial about this, but people who are hurting are a lot less likely to vote for them.[7]

Peter Hamby, “Pleading the 6th,” Puck, May 13, 2024,


Democratic (neoliberal) Party

Joe Biden

Fig. 1. Joe Biden and Pope Francis, unknown photographer, April 29, 2016, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Harold Meyerson, “Swing Voters Prefer Democrats. Just Not Joe Biden,” American Prospect, May 14, 2024,

  1. [1]Harold Meyerson, “Swing Voters Prefer Democrats. Just Not Joe Biden,” American Prospect, May 14, 2024,
  2. [2]Harold Meyerson, “Swing Voters Prefer Democrats. Just Not Joe Biden,” American Prospect, May 14, 2024,
  3. [3]Jonathan Gitlin, “Tesla does 180 on Superchargers, rehiring laid-off staff amid new plans,” Ars Technica, May 13, 2024,
  4. [4]Times of Israel, “20 years after its opening, destroyed Gaza airport embodies grounded peace hopes,” September 12, 2018,
  5. [5]Peter Hamby, “Pleading the 6th,” Puck, May 13, 2024,
  6. [6]Peter Hamby, “Pleading the 6th,” Puck, May 13, 2024,
  7. [7]Harold Meyerson, “Swing Voters Prefer Democrats. Just Not Joe Biden,” American Prospect, May 14, 2024,

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