Reboot and reinstall

All I wanted was to get my music collection onto my new iPhone. Talk about opening a can of worms.

Apple has done its level best to make it impossible to access the file structure on the iPhone through a USB connection and if there’s a way to do it via Bluetooth, I haven’t found it. And Google Drive doesn’t allow folder downloads via the web.

With Android and on Linux, I had programs or apps that got around this. They don’t seem to be available for the iPhone and those that are claimed to get around this either no longer exist or do not work.

So I tried booting into Windows to try to find out what my options are there. This was a huge mistake.

First, there didn’t seem to be any working options for downloading folders from my Google Drive to the iPhone.

But second, while I knew Windows would change the boot configuration so I’d have to go back into it at what used to be called the BIOS level and reconfigure it to get back into Linux, I wasn’t expecting it to make the Linux installations on the machine unbootable.

And when I tried going back in with a bootable USB drive, even though I’d chosen UEFI options, the Linux kernel wasn’t configured properly for UEFI.

No more. It’s time to cut the bullshit. I simply don’t have patience for this shit anymore.

So the Windows installation is blown away, the Sabayon Linux installation which had gotten increasingly problematic is blown away, the old Ubuntu installation is blown away.

I have a fresh Ubuntu installation and I’m restoring files from backup. I may go have a chat with the folks at the Apple Store about how to do what I need to do.

What all this means for this newsletter is that I won’t have up to date satellite images for a while. I still have the scripts—they’re backed up. But I don’t have them running on the new installation yet. Not only do I need to restore from backups, but I have to get scripts that had been tailored for Sabayon working under Ubuntu.

None of this is impossible. Ubuntu generally has more options than Sabayon. It’s just work.


Dorian

KRBAMS5E5FE3HA2OOQAAARGROA
Satellite photo of Dorian on the North Carolina coast, via the Washington Post, September 6, 2019.

Since nearly making landfall (I thought it actually had[1]) on the southern extent of the North Carolina coast, then as a category 2 storm,[2] Dorian basically followed the coast, weakening to category 1,[3] but certainly retaining strength longer than it would have had it gone inland.

As to landfall, it sure looked like the eye passed over the Outer Banks to me:
Continental US - Clean Longwave Window - IR
As of 8:00 am.

And I guess I was right this time (you know what they say about throwing darts).[4]

This is when I need to remember that the human rats (politicians) in Washington, D.C., are likely on high ground anyway:

While the storm could bring tropical-storm conditions to the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island, it is not forecast to send a storm surge riding up the Potomac River toward Washington, D.C.[5]

So apart from a self-inflicted wound about Alabama[6] and barring a change in path, Donald Trump emerges from Dorian unscathed.

Meanwhile, the death toll in the Bahamas is now at least thirty.[7]

Mia Mottley, the prime minister of Barbados, spoke about her thoughts on Dorian’s links to the climate crisis. She did not pull her punches.

“We are on the frontline of the consequences of climate change but we don’t cause it,” she said. “And the vulnerability that attaches therefore to us is a matter we’re trying to get the international community to deal with consistently.”

She added: “People say the words and hear you, but they don’t follow through so that I have every confidence. Now that the last few years are beginning to show others that frontline states, whether it’s an island in the Caribbean or states in the US or cities, all of us who are continuously being affected, have to recognise that this doesn’t happen out of the blue.

“The warmer waters do what? They fuel the growth and the strength of hurricanes.”[8]

Valerie Bauerlein and Jon Kamp, “Weakened Hurricane Dorian Makes Landfall on North Carolina Coast,” Wall Street Journal, September 6, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/hurricane-dorian-makes-landfall-over-cape-hatteras-n-c-11567775699
210138_5day_cone_no_line_and_win
Matthew Cappucci and Andrew Freedman, “President Trump showed a doctored hurricane chart. Was it to cover up for ‘Alabama’ Twitter flub?” Washington Post, September 5, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/04/president-trump-shows-doctored-hurricane-chart-was-it-cover-up-alabama-twitter-flub/

Oliver Laughland and Adam Gabbatt, “’Everything is destroyed’: 30 dead in Bahamas as Dorian lashes North Carolina,” Guardian, September 6, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/05/hurricane-dorian-latest-us-strength-path

Jamie Pietruska, “Why President Trump’s Sharpied weather map was likely a crime — and should be,” Washington Post, September 6, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/09/06/why-president-trumps-sharpied-weather-map-was-likely-crime-should-be/

Jason Samenow and Andrew Freedman, “Dorian slams N.C. Outer Banks with 95 mph winds, charges toward southeast Va., southeast New England,” Washington Post, September 6, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/06/dorian-lash-eastern-north-carolina-southeast-virginia-southeast-new-england-before-finally-zipping-away/


Recession

Add this[9] to the pile of reasons for worry:[10]

Hiring in August was also boosted heavily by the U.S. government adding 25,000 temporary workers to its payrolls for the 2020 Census.

“Hiring in the U.S. is slowing, not stopping,” said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, although he called it “somewhat concerning” that setting aside government hiring, private sector job gains fell to 96,000.[11]

And remember that the psychology is a major factor.[12]

Heather Long, “U.S. economy adds just 130,000 jobs in August amid worries that trade war has sunk its teeth into hiring,” Washington Post, September 6, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/09/06/us-economy-adds-just-jobs-august-amid-worries-that-trade-war-has-sunk-its-teeth-into-hiring/


Gig economy

Aaron Gordon, “The Bill That Would Make Uber And Lyft Drivers Employees Isn’t Just Making Uber And Lyft Nervous,” Jalopnik, September 6, 2019, https://jalopnik.com/the-bill-that-would-make-uber-and-lyft-drivers-employee-1837909962


Brexit

There is a new blog post entitled, “Voters still need to decide on Brexit.”

Deutschewelle, “Brexit: House of Lords approves bill to block no deal,” September 6, 2019, https://www.dw.com/en/brexit-house-of-lords-approves-bill-to-block-no-deal/a-50331382


  1. [1]David Benfell, “Dorian (sort of) comes ashore in North Carolina,” Irregular Bullshit, September 6, 2019, https://disunitedstates.com/2019/09/06/dorian-comes-ashore-in-north-carolina/
  2. [2]Andrew Freedman and Jason Samenow, “‘Life-threatening’ storm surge, torrential rains and hurricane force winds pound the Carolinas as Hurricane Dorian grinds north,” Washington Post, September 5, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/05/life-threatening-storm-surge-torrential-rains-hurricane-force-winds-pound-carolinas-hurricane-dorian-grinds-north/
  3. [3]Jason Samenow and Andrew Freedman, “Dorian slams N.C. Outer Banks with 95 mph winds, charges toward southeast Va., southeast New England,” Washington Post, September 6, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/06/dorian-lash-eastern-north-carolina-southeast-virginia-southeast-new-england-before-finally-zipping-away/
  4. [4]Valerie Bauerlein and Jon Kamp, “Weakened Hurricane Dorian Makes Landfall on North Carolina Coast,” Wall Street Journal, September 6, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/hurricane-dorian-makes-landfall-over-cape-hatteras-n-c-11567775699
  5. [5]Jason Samenow and Andrew Freedman, “Dorian slams N.C. Outer Banks with 95 mph winds, charges toward southeast Va., southeast New England,” Washington Post, September 6, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/06/dorian-lash-eastern-north-carolina-southeast-virginia-southeast-new-england-before-finally-zipping-away/
  6. [6]Nancy Benac, “Trump clings to idea Alabama faced big threat from Dorian,” Associated Press, September 4, 2019, https://www.apnews.com/416144d854fb4302a9f34cccae81b0e0; Matthew Cappucci and Andrew Freedman, “President Trump showed a doctored hurricane chart. Was it to cover up for ‘Alabama’ Twitter flub?” Washington Post, September 5, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/04/president-trump-shows-doctored-hurricane-chart-was-it-cover-up-alabama-twitter-flub/; Jamie Pietruska, “Why President Trump’s Sharpied weather map was likely a crime — and should be,” Washington Post, September 6, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/09/06/why-president-trumps-sharpied-weather-map-was-likely-crime-should-be/
  7. [7]Oliver Laughland and Adam Gabbatt, “’Everything is destroyed’: 30 dead in Bahamas as Dorian lashes North Carolina,” Guardian, September 6, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/05/hurricane-dorian-latest-us-strength-path
  8. [8]Oliver Laughland and Adam Gabbatt, “’Everything is destroyed’: 30 dead in Bahamas as Dorian lashes North Carolina,” Guardian, September 6, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/05/hurricane-dorian-latest-us-strength-path
  9. [9]Heather Long, “U.S. economy adds just 130,000 jobs in August amid worries that trade war has sunk its teeth into hiring,” Washington Post, September 6, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/09/06/us-economy-adds-just-jobs-august-amid-worries-that-trade-war-has-sunk-its-teeth-into-hiring/
  10. [10]Jon Hilsenrath, “After Record-Long Expansion, Here’s What Could Knock the Economy Off Course,” Wall Street Journal, June 3, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-record-long-expansion-heres-what-could-knock-the-economy-off-course-11559591043; John Kemp, “Global economy is probably in recession,” Reuters, August 7, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-global-economy-kemp/column-global-economy-is-probably-in-recession-idUKKCN1UX1OF; Colin Kruger, “‘Insane levels’: Can a world where profitless companies are flying last?” Sydney Morning Herald, August 10, 2019, https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/insane-levels-can-a-world-where-profitless-companies-are-flying-last-20190808-p52f3d.html; Damian Paletta, Thomas Heath, and Taylor Telford, “Stocks tank as another recession warning surfaces,” Washington Post, August 14, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/14/stocks-tank-another-recession-warning-surfaces/; Tim Wallace, “‘Very real’ recession risk as economy contracts for first time in seven years,” Telegraph, August 9, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/08/09/recession-risk-now-real-economy-contracts-first-time-seven-years/; Tim Wallace, “World economy faces a risk that’s far bigger than Trump’s trade war,” Sydney Morning Herald, August 9, 2019, https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/world-economy-faces-a-risk-that-s-far-bigger-than-trump-s-trade-war-20190809-p52ffs.html
  11. [11]Heather Long, “U.S. economy adds just 130,000 jobs in August amid worries that trade war has sunk its teeth into hiring,” Washington Post, September 6, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/09/06/us-economy-adds-just-jobs-august-amid-worries-that-trade-war-has-sunk-its-teeth-into-hiring/
  12. [12]David Benfell, “As a possible or probable recession looms, neoliberalism evades challenge. Yet again,” Not Housebroken, August 14, 2019, https://disunitedstates.org/2019/08/14/as-a-possible-or-probable-recession-looms-neoliberalism-evades-challenge-yet-again/

The world’s worst poker player

Brexit

Boris Johnson keeps raising the ante. There is a new blog entry entitled, “The world’s worst poker player, on a jet-powered bicycle at full throttle toward a brick wall.” He might be strapping on a rocket next.

Kevin Sullivan and Karla Adam, “Britain may face snap elections after Prime Minister Boris Johnson suffers major loss in Parliament,” Washington Post, September 3, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/showdown-set-for-the-british-parliament-as-legislators-return-from-summer-recess/2019/09/03/105ecca6-cb6c-11e9-9615-8f1a32962e04_story.html

Peter Walker and Jessica Elgot, “Boris Johnson’s ultimatum: back me or face 14 October election,” Guardian, September 2, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/02/boris-johnson-threatens-to-ignore-mps-on-no-deal-brexit

Esther Webber and Kate Devlin, “Try and stop me rebelling, Philip Hammond tells No 10,” Times, September 3, 2019, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/try-and-stop-me-rebelling-philip-hammond-tells-no-10-kbdzj8nwf


Recession

I’ve been inclined to think a recession is on the way for a while now[1] for a bunch of reasons.[2] Now Aaron Back, writing for the Wall Street Journal’s “Heard on the Street” column opines that “[s]igns of a possible recession keep stacking up. At some point it no longer makes sense to keep explaining them away.” The manufacturing index dipping below 50 is not a perfect recession signal and Back seems to think it’s less reliable than the inverted yield curve. But he concludes, “With both the yield curve and manufacturing surveys flashing red at the same time, it would be foolish to dismiss them both. No wonder investors are spooked.”[3]

Ruth Simon, Megumi Fujikawa, and Paul Hannon, “U.S.-China Trade War’s Global Impact Grows,” Wall Street Journal, September 2, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china-trade-wars-global-impact-grows-11567466809

Aaron Back, “Another Recession Sign to Ignore at Your Peril,” Wall Street Journal, September 3, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/another-recession-sign-to-ignore-at-your-peril-11567530230


Hong Kong

Natasha Khan and Eva Dou, “Beijing Asserts Power to Declare Emergency to Quell Hong Kong Unrest,” Wall Street Journal, September 3, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-asserts-power-to-declare-emergency-to-quell-hong-kong-unrest-11567509276


Dorian

Continental US - Clean Longwave Window - IR
As of 8:00 am, Dorian’s eye had moved off of Grand Bahama, but the storm was still lashing the island. The storm had weakened to category 3,[4] but appeared to be beginning to affect Florida. It killed at least five people on the Abaco islands, to the east of Grand Bahama.[5]

The storm has weakened further since, to category 2, but looks set to graze the Atlantic Coast all the way up to Newfoundland.[6]
eusgm-2019-09-03-20FireShot Capture 083 - HURRICANE DORIAN - www.nhc.noaa.gov
72-hour gif, images 2 hours apart, as of 8:00 pm and National Hurricane Center storm track forecast as of 8:00 pm.

Andrew Freedman and Jason Samenow, “Dorian expands in size as tropical storm conditions hit Florida and the hurricane risk increases in the Carolinas,” Washington Post, September 3, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/03/hurricane-dorian-is-set-creep-north-closer-florida-georgia-carolinas-after-pounding-bahamas/

Arian Campo-Flores and Erin Ailworth, “Hurricane Dorian Death Toll at Five in Bahamas as Storm Is Headed for U.S.,” Wall Street Journal, September 3, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/hurricane-dorian-batters-bahamas-drives-toward-u-s-11567429839


  1. [1]David Benfell, “About that recession timing and the 2020 election,” Not Housebroken, August 25, 2019, https://disunitedstates.org/2019/08/25/about-that-recession-timing-and-the-2020-election/
  2. [2]Jon Hilsenrath, “After Record-Long Expansion, Here’s What Could Knock the Economy Off Course,” Wall Street Journal, June 3, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-record-long-expansion-heres-what-could-knock-the-economy-off-course-11559591043; John Kemp, “Global economy is probably in recession,” Reuters, August 7, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-global-economy-kemp/column-global-economy-is-probably-in-recession-idUKKCN1UX1OF; Colin Kruger, “‘Insane levels’: Can a world where profitless companies are flying last?” Sydney Morning Herald, August 10, 2019, https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/insane-levels-can-a-world-where-profitless-companies-are-flying-last-20190808-p52f3d.html; Damian Paletta, Thomas Heath, and Taylor Telford, “Stocks tank as another recession warning surfaces,” Washington Post, August 14, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/14/stocks-tank-another-recession-warning-surfaces/; Tim Wallace, “‘Very real’ recession risk as economy contracts for first time in seven years,” Telegraph, August 9, 2019, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/08/09/recession-risk-now-real-economy-contracts-first-time-seven-years/; Tim Wallace, “World economy faces a risk that’s far bigger than Trump’s trade war,” Sydney Morning Herald, August 9, 2019, https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/world-economy-faces-a-risk-that-s-far-bigger-than-trump-s-trade-war-20190809-p52ffs.html
  3. [3]Aaron Back, “Another Recession Sign to Ignore at Your Peril,” Wall Street Journal, September 3, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/another-recession-sign-to-ignore-at-your-peril-11567530230
  4. [4]Arian Campo-Flores and Erin Ailworth, “Hurricane Dorian Death Toll at Five in Bahamas as Storm Is Headed for U.S.,” Wall Street Journal, September 3, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/hurricane-dorian-batters-bahamas-drives-toward-u-s-11567429839
  5. [5]Arian Campo-Flores and Erin Ailworth, “Hurricane Dorian Death Toll at Five in Bahamas as Storm Is Headed for U.S.,” Wall Street Journal, September 3, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/hurricane-dorian-batters-bahamas-drives-toward-u-s-11567429839
  6. [6]Andrew Freedman and Jason Samenow, “Dorian expands in size as tropical storm conditions hit Florida and the hurricane risk increases in the Carolinas,” Washington Post, September 3, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/03/hurricane-dorian-is-set-creep-north-closer-florida-georgia-carolinas-after-pounding-bahamas/

Climate crisis

Updates

  1. Originally published, August 31, 5:03 pm.
  2. August 31, 6:46 pm:
    • Updated the 72-hour gif. Dorian is really getting close to those northwestern Bahama Islands now.
  3. August 31, 7:37 pm:
    • I’m having real trouble visualizing that there’s much of anywhere on the northwestern Bahama Islands to evacuate to, but I guess that’s what they’re doing.[1]
  4. August 31, 8:18 pm:
    • Updated the National Hurricane Center forecast storm track map for Dorian. They appear not to have a revised tropical storm wind forecast map.
    • Updated the 72-hour gif. Dorian still looks like it is headed straight for the northwestern Bahama Islands.
    • Updated commentary on Dorian.
  5. August 31, 10:15 pm:
    • Updated the 72-hour gif. If you’re in the northwest Bahamas, this must be terrifying.

The Amazon

There is a new blog post entitled, “A hurricane, a burning rainforest, and economic survival: Why we cannot view these problems separately.”

Max Fisher, “‘It’s Really Close’: How the Amazon Rainforest Could Self-Destruct,” New York Times, August 30, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/30/world/americas/amazon-rainforest-fires-climate.html

Gabriel Stargardter, “Why is Bolsonaro wary of foreign Amazon aid? Ask Brazil’s military,” Reuters, August 30, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-environment-military/why-is-bolsonaro-wary-of-foreign-amazon-aid-ask-brazils-military-idUSKCN1VK2HQ


Dorian

I have to say that the Bermuda High, previously thought likely to steer Dorian directly into Florida,[2] just doesn’t look very convincing to me at all.

In all fairness, I’m used to looking at the Pacific High, which shields much of the U.S. west coast from storms during the summer. And this Bermuda High thing just isn’t anywhere near as persuasive. Seriously, this is pathetic by comparison. And they really thought this was gonna stop Dorian from going north?

eusgm-2019-08-31-22
72-hour gif, images two hours apart, as of 10:00 pm.

I wouldn’t have been surprised to see Dorian turn north well before the forecast in the Washington Post story, in which Dorian would have skirted much of the east coast right up through North Carolina’s Cape Hatteras.[3] The more recent forecast storm track puts the storm a little further off shore and seems much more reasonable to me.

234045_5day_cone_no_line_and_win
205408
National Hurricane Center maps, August 31, 2019.

Leila Macor, “Bahamas braces as monster Hurricane Dorian heads for US mainland,” Yahoo! News, August 31, 2019, https://news.yahoo.com/puerto-rico-braces-hit-tropical-storm-dorian-133659477.html

Jason Samenow, “‘Extremely dangerous’ Hurricane Dorian barrels toward Southeast U.S. as likelihood of direct hit on Florida decreases,” Washington Post, August 31, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/08/31/extremely-dangerous-hurricane-dorian-churns-toward-southeast-us-florida-forecast-is-highly-uncertain/


  1. [1]Leila Macor, “Bahamas braces as monster Hurricane Dorian heads for US mainland,” Yahoo! News, August 31, 2019, https://news.yahoo.com/puerto-rico-braces-hit-tropical-storm-dorian-133659477.html
  2. [2]Jason Samenow, Matthew Cappucci, and Andrew Freedman, “Potentially disastrous Hurricane Dorian strengthens to Category 4 as it targets Florida and Southeast U.S.,” Washington Post, August 30, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/08/30/potentially-disastrous-hurricane-dorian-looms-closer-stronger-targeting-florida-southeast-us/
  3. [3]Jason Samenow, “‘Extremely dangerous’ Hurricane Dorian barrels toward Southeast U.S. as likelihood of direct hit on Florida decreases,” Washington Post, August 31, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/08/31/extremely-dangerous-hurricane-dorian-churns-toward-southeast-us-florida-forecast-is-highly-uncertain/