Ukraine
Fig. 1. “Destroyed Russian military vehicles located on the main street Khreshchatyk are seen as part of the celebration of the Independence Day of Ukraine in Kyiv, August 24.” Photograph by Gleb Garanich for Reuters, August 24, 2022,[1] fair use.
The illegal Russian-Ukraine conflict and its risk that nuclear weapons could be used was a primary, but not exclusive, catalyst in bumping forward the hands on the symbolic measure known as the “Doomsday Clock.”[2]
Russia’s war on Ukraine has raised profound questions about how states interact, eroding norms of international conduct that underpin successful responses to a variety of global risks.
And worst of all, Russia’s thinly veiled threats to use nuclear weapons remind the world that escalation of the conflict—by accident, intention, or miscalculation—is a terrible risk. The possibility that the conflict could spin out of anyone’s control remains high.
Russia’s recent actions contravene decades of commitments by Moscow. In 1994, Russia joined the United States and United Kingdom in Budapest, Hungary, to solemnly declare that it would “respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine” and “refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine…” These assurances were made explicitly on the understanding that Ukraine would relinquish nuclear weapons on its soil and sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty—both of which Ukraine did.[3]
John Mecklin also cites Russia’s violent gambits around nuclear power stations in Ukraine and interprets Russian disinformation on Ukraine’s supposed weapons of mass destruction as suggesting that Russia itself may use these weapons.[4]
Rachel Koning Beals, “Russia-Ukraine war leaves Doomsday Clock closest to ‘crisis’ hour of midnight in report’s 76-year history,” Bloomberg, January 24, 2023, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/russia-ukraine-war-leaves-doomsday-clock-the-closest-to-crisis-midnight-in-reports-76-year-history-11674573997
Michael R. Gordon and Gordon Lubold, “U.S. Leans Toward Providing Abrams Tanks to Ukraine,” Wall Street Journal, January 24, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/poland-formally-requests-german-permission-to-send-tanks-to-ukraine-11674558492
John Mecklin, “A time of unprecedented danger: It is 90 seconds to midnight,” Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, January 24, 2023, https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/
Doomsday Clock
Fig. 1. “The atomic cloud over Nagasaki 1945.” Photograph from Office for Emergency Management. Office of War Information. Overseas Operations Branch, New York Office, News and Features Bureau, (12/17/1942 – 09/15/1945), by Charles Levy, August 9, 1945, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
The clock now stands at 90 seconds to midnight, the hour of crisis, a Tuesday announcement said. That is the closest, meaning the most worrisome, to midnight in the 76-year history of the release from the Bulletin of Atomic Scienstists, which issues the report at this time each year.
Other factors [in addition to the illegal Russian-Ukraine conflict and its risk that nuclear weapons could be used] moving the clock hands included nuclear tensions heightening on the Korean Peninsula and the climate crisis, which devasted communities in flooded Pakistan, hurricane-battered Florida and elsewhere in 2022. Close attention remains on global efforts to mitigate, but also build defenses against, the global warming that makes natural disasters more extreme and is acidifying oceans that provide food and income for many.[5]
Rachel Koning Beals, “Russia-Ukraine war leaves Doomsday Clock closest to ‘crisis’ hour of midnight in report’s 76-year history,” Bloomberg, January 24, 2023, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/russia-ukraine-war-leaves-doomsday-clock-the-closest-to-crisis-midnight-in-reports-76-year-history-11674573997
John Mecklin, “A time of unprecedented danger: It is 90 seconds to midnight,” Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, January 24, 2023, https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/
- [1]Reuters, “Ukraine puts destroyed Russian tanks on display in Kyiv,” August 25, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/ukraine-puts-destroyed-russian-tanks-on-idUSRTSALV9Q↩
- [2]Rachel Koning Beals, “Russia-Ukraine war leaves Doomsday Clock closest to ‘crisis’ hour of midnight in report’s 76-year history,” Bloomberg, January 24, 2023, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/russia-ukraine-war-leaves-doomsday-clock-the-closest-to-crisis-midnight-in-reports-76-year-history-11674573997↩
- [3]John Mecklin, “A time of unprecedented danger: It is 90 seconds to midnight,” Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, January 24, 2023, https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/↩
- [4]John Mecklin, “A time of unprecedented danger: It is 90 seconds to midnight,” Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, January 24, 2023, https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/↩
- [5]Rachel Koning Beals, “Russia-Ukraine war leaves Doomsday Clock closest to ‘crisis’ hour of midnight in report’s 76-year history,” Bloomberg, January 24, 2023, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/russia-ukraine-war-leaves-doomsday-clock-the-closest-to-crisis-midnight-in-reports-76-year-history-11674573997↩