Month: January 2023

A deal, heaven forbid, with the Democrats?

benfell

Gilead

Speaker of the House of Representatives


Fig. 1. Photograph credited to Office of Congressman Kevin McCarthy, date inconsistent with title but given as November 9, 2022, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Aaron Blake is leaning heavily on the question of where Kevin McCarthy’s supporters in his bid to be Speaker of the House of Representatives might draw a line[1] on the seemingly endless concessions he’s offered his opponents[2] who really just seem more interested in burning it all down or at least in self-promotion and fundraising.[3] While McCarthy continues to get a vast majority of Republican votes,[4] one might more than reasonably wonder if, indeed, he actually has a path to victory.[5]

Blake still considers the possibility of a deal with the Democrats to elect a so-called ‘moderate’ remote but even the fact that people are starting to breathe these words speaks to a certain desperation.[6] I see two questions here: 1) Does such a ‘moderate’ actually exist? 2) Would they risk the opprobrium—consider Liz Cheney’s fate[7]—attaching to any such deal?

Something to consider here, however, is that thanks to Republican opposition to McCarthy, the Democratic leader, Hakeem Jeffries, has consistently winning more votes in each ballot than McCarthy.[8] The path very likely exists, if even a few Republicans dare to walk it.

Natalie Andrews and Eliza Collins, “Kevin McCarthy Falls Short of House Speaker Win in Three Rounds of Voting,” Wall Street Journal, January 3, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/house-prepares-to-vote-for-speaker-as-kevin-mccarthy-tries-to-rally-support-11672750973

Aaron Blake, “McCarthy’s big concession — and how it could hamstring a GOP speaker,” Washington Post, January 3, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/03/motion-vacate-house-speaker/

John Cassidy, “Behind the Humiliation of Kevin McCarthy,” New Yorker, January 3, 2023, https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/behind-the-humiliation-of-kevin-mccarthy

Clare Foran et al., “House adjourns after chaotic day without electing a speaker as McCarthy fails to lock down votes,” CNN, January 3, 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/03/politics/house-speaker-vote-mccarthy/index.html

Tara Palmeri, “We Need to Talk About Kevin, ” Puck News, January 3, 2023, https://puck.news/we-need-to-talk-about-kevin/

Clare Foran et al., “House adjourns for second day without electing a speaker with McCarthy’s bid in peril,” CNN, January 4, 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/04/politics/kevin-mccarthy-speaker-vote/index.html

Molly Jong-Fast, “The Kevin McCarthy Mess Is Peak Trumpism,” Vanity Fair, January 4, 2023, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/01/kevin-mccarthy-speaker-vote-gop-trumpism

Nolan D. McCaskill, “Deadlocked House adjourns until evening after Kevin McCarthy racks up yet another defeat,” Los Angeles Times, January 4, 2023, https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-01-04/trump-mccarthy-speaker-votes

Tara Palmeri, “Scalise Smoke Signals,” Puck News, January 4, 2023, https://puck.news/scalise-smoke-signals/

Ashley Parker and Josh Dawsey, “The House hard-liners blocking McCarthy aren’t listening to Trump,” Washington Post, January 4, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/04/trump-mccarthy-speaker/

Dan Zak and Ben Terris, “Does the House even exist right now?” Washington Post, January 4, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2023/01/04/house-of-representatives-in-purgatory-without-speaker/

Olivia Beavers et al., “McCarthy nears tentative deal with conservatives after days of stalemate,” Politico, January 5, 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/05/mccarthy-bid-00076520

Aaron Blake, “What McCarthy’s concessions could cost him — and the GOP,” Washington Post, January 5, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/05/mccarthy-concessions-gop/

Bess Levin, “Kevin McCarthy Debases Himself in Hopes of Finally Winning Speaker Vote, Then Loses Again (And Again, And Again),” Vanity Fair, January 5, 2023, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/01/kevin-mccarthy-speaker-vote-concessions

Eric Levitz, “The GOP Is More Ungovernable Than Ever Before,” New York, January 5, 2023, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/01/the-gop-is-more-ungovernable-than-ever-before.html

Nolan D. McCaskill, “House adjourns for night after McCarthy amasses 11 speaker vote losses,” Los Angeles Times, January 5, 2023, https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-01-05/mccarthy-speaker-thursday-votes

Tina Nguyen, “McCarthy’s Chronicle of a Death Foretold,” Puck News, January 5, 2023, https://puck.news/mccarthys-chronicle-of-a-death-foretold/

Jenavieve Hatch, Gillian Brassil, and David Lightman, “California GOP on McCarthy Speaker bid: ‘The Republican Party is entirely dependent on him,’” Sacramento Bee, January 6, 2023, https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/article270831322.html

Pennsylvania

Pittsburgh

Unauthorized violence


Fig. 1. “Ed Gainey poses with CeaseFirePA during the 2020 Women’s March in Downtown Pittsburgh.” Photograph by Megan Gloeckler, undated, via Pittsburgh City Paper,[9] fair use.

I first heard about a shooting along McKnight Road[10] from a passenger talking about it on the phone. By the time I went through, the evidence had been swept up, but the days are short right now and I was there during daylight, so it couldn’t have been long.

At about the same time, there was a shooting and hostage situation at the Eat ‘N Park restaurant along Banksville Road,[11] which is the road I drive on most nights at the end of my day.

Both these incidents occurred in what I generally consider to be relatively safe areas in broad daylight at around 2 pm.[12] But oh yeah, I’m safe driving for fucking Uber.[13]

Megan Tomasic, “2 injured in shooting along McKnight Road in Ross,” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, January 5, 2023, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/crime-courts/2023/01/05/mcknight-road-shooting-ross-township-allegheny-county/stories/202301050127

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Arrest made after shots fired, hostage situation at Eat ‘N Park in Banksville,” January 6, 2023, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/crime-courts/2023/01/05/pittsburgh-shooting-eatn-park-hostage-situation-banksville-road-man-arrested/stories/202301050130

  1. [1]Aaron Blake, “What McCarthy’s concessions could cost him — and the GOP,” Washington Post, January 5, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/05/mccarthy-concessions-gop/↩
  2. [2]Olivia Beavers et al., “McCarthy nears tentative deal with conservatives after days of stalemate,” Politico, January 5, 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/05/mccarthy-bid-00076520; Aaron Blake, “McCarthy’s big concession — and how it could hamstring a GOP speaker,” Washington Post, January 3, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/03/motion-vacate-house-speaker/; Aaron Blake, “What McCarthy’s concessions could cost him — and the GOP,” Washington Post, January 5, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/05/mccarthy-concessions-gop/; Bess Levin, “Kevin McCarthy Debases Himself in Hopes of Finally Winning Speaker Vote, Then Loses Again (And Again, And Again),” Vanity Fair, January 5, 2023, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/01/kevin-mccarthy-speaker-vote-concessions↩
  3. [3]Molly Jong-Fast, “The Kevin McCarthy Mess Is Peak Trumpism,” Vanity Fair, January 4, 2023, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/01/kevin-mccarthy-speaker-vote-gop-trumpism; Eric Levitz, “The GOP Is More Ungovernable Than Ever Before,” New York, January 5, 2023, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/01/the-gop-is-more-ungovernable-than-ever-before.html↩
  4. [4]Nolan D. McCaskill, “House adjourns for night after McCarthy amasses 11 speaker vote losses,” Los Angeles Times, January 5, 2023, https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-01-05/mccarthy-speaker-thursday-votes↩
  5. [5]Nolan D. McCaskill, “House adjourns for night after McCarthy amasses 11 speaker vote losses,” Los Angeles Times, January 5, 2023, https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-01-05/mccarthy-speaker-thursday-votes↩
  6. [6]Aaron Blake, “What McCarthy’s concessions could cost him — and the GOP,” Washington Post, January 5, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/05/mccarthy-concessions-gop/↩
  7. [7]Natalie Andrews, “Liz Cheney Concedes to Trump-Backed Challenger in Wyoming Primary,” Wall Street Journal, August 16, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/liz-cheney-faces-uphill-fight-in-primary-against-trump-backed-opponent-11660642201↩
  8. [8]Nolan D. McCaskill, “House adjourns for night after McCarthy amasses 11 speaker vote losses,” Los Angeles Times, January 5, 2023, https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-01-05/mccarthy-speaker-thursday-votes↩
  9. [9]Charlie Wolfson, “Neighborhood groups try to curb shootings as Pittsburgh’s mayoral campaign puts political focus on gun violence,” Pittsburgh City Paper, October 20, 2021, https://www.pghcitypaper.com/pittsburgh/neighborhood-groups-try-to-curb-shootings-as-pittsburghs-mayoral-campaign-puts-political-focus-on-gun-violence/Content?oid=20401296↩
  10. [10]Megan Tomasic, “2 injured in shooting along McKnight Road in Ross,” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, January 5, 2023, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/crime-courts/2023/01/05/mcknight-road-shooting-ross-township-allegheny-county/stories/202301050127↩
  11. [11]Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Arrest made after shots fired, hostage situation at Eat ‘N Park in Banksville,” January 6, 2023, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/crime-courts/2023/01/05/pittsburgh-shooting-eatn-park-hostage-situation-banksville-road-man-arrested/stories/202301050130↩
  12. [12]Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Arrest made after shots fired, hostage situation at Eat ‘N Park in Banksville,” January 6, 2023, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/crime-courts/2023/01/05/pittsburgh-shooting-eatn-park-hostage-situation-banksville-road-man-arrested/stories/202301050130; Megan Tomasic, “2 injured in shooting along McKnight Road in Ross,” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, January 5, 2023, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/crime-courts/2023/01/05/mcknight-road-shooting-ross-township-allegheny-county/stories/202301050127↩
  13. [13]David Benfell, “Gaslighting Uber drivers on safety,” Not Housebroken, November 9, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/04/28/gaslighting-uber-drivers-on-safety/↩

Stabbing in the dark for a Speaker of the House of Representatives

benfell

Gilead

Speaker of the House of Representatives


Fig. 1. Photograph credited to Office of Congressman Kevin McCarthy, date inconsistent with title but given as November 9, 2022, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

There is a new blog post entitled, “Can Oregon help elect a Speaker of the House of Representatives?”

Kevin McCarthy has now lost eleven votes in this campaign for the speakership:[1]

[Kevin] McCarthy has yet to convert a single member to his column since the 118th Congress first convened Tuesday and began voting to elect a speaker. In fact, his total vote count has fallen from its height of 203 Tuesday to 200 by the ninth ballot Thursday, when one of his supporters began missing the roll call. . . .

McCarthy remains 16 votes shy of being elected speaker. Several members of the so-called “Never Kevin” caucus — which includes [Matt] Gaetz and [Lauren] Boebert — say they will never support McCarthy in a floor vote, calling into question whether he has a plausible path to the job at all.[2]

There’s lots of talk of a deal,[3] but if Tina Nguyen is right, then McCarthy cannot win the speakership because his detractors see this battle as personal and aren’t moved[4] even by concessions that emasculate the Speaker. There is a risk, as well, that crossing what had previously been “red lines,” particularly on committee assignments, including on who will chair those committees, will alienate some of McCarthy’s current backers.[5] Meanwhile, Tara Palmeri sees a bit more substance behind the smoke signals she’s been seeing where Steve Scalise ends up getting the nod.[6]

For now, the prudent bet is no bet at all. I remain deeply skeptical that McCarthy can pull this out, but Palmeri[7] aside, I’m just not seeing any pickup on the idea of Scalise stepping in, and it’s not like folks have never heard of him. I honestly think we’re just stabbing in the dark when it comes to what happens if, as it seems he eventually must, McCarthy withdraws.

Natalie Andrews and Eliza Collins, “Kevin McCarthy Falls Short of House Speaker Win in Three Rounds of Voting,” Wall Street Journal, January 3, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/house-prepares-to-vote-for-speaker-as-kevin-mccarthy-tries-to-rally-support-11672750973

Aaron Blake, “McCarthy’s big concession — and how it could hamstring a GOP speaker,” Washington Post, January 3, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/03/motion-vacate-house-speaker/

John Cassidy, “Behind the Humiliation of Kevin McCarthy,” New Yorker, January 3, 2023, https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/behind-the-humiliation-of-kevin-mccarthy

Clare Foran et al., “House adjourns after chaotic day without electing a speaker as McCarthy fails to lock down votes,” CNN, January 3, 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/03/politics/house-speaker-vote-mccarthy/index.html

Tara Palmeri, “We Need to Talk About Kevin, ” Puck News, January 3, 2023, https://puck.news/we-need-to-talk-about-kevin/

Clare Foran et al., “House adjourns for second day without electing a speaker with McCarthy’s bid in peril,” CNN, January 4, 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/04/politics/kevin-mccarthy-speaker-vote/index.html

Molly Jong-Fast, “The Kevin McCarthy Mess Is Peak Trumpism,” Vanity Fair, January 4, 2023, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/01/kevin-mccarthy-speaker-vote-gop-trumpism

Nolan D. McCaskill, “Deadlocked House adjourns until evening after Kevin McCarthy racks up yet another defeat,” Los Angeles Times, January 4, 2023, https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-01-04/trump-mccarthy-speaker-votes

Tara Palmeri, “Scalise Smoke Signals,” Puck News, January 4, 2023, https://puck.news/scalise-smoke-signals/

Ashley Parker and Josh Dawsey, “The House hard-liners blocking McCarthy aren’t listening to Trump,” Washington Post, January 4, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/04/trump-mccarthy-speaker/

Dan Zak and Ben Terris, “Does the House even exist right now?” Washington Post, January 4, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2023/01/04/house-of-representatives-in-purgatory-without-speaker/

Olivia Beavers et al., “McCarthy nears tentative deal with conservatives after days of stalemate,” Politico, January 5, 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/05/mccarthy-bid-00076520

Nolan D. McCaskill, “Historic deadlock continues: McCarthy takes another loss on 11th speaker ballot,” Los Angeles Times, January 5, 2023, https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-01-05/mccarthy-speaker-thursday-votes

Tina Nguyen, “McCarthy’s Chronicle of a Death Foretold,” Puck News, January 5, 2023, https://puck.news/mccarthys-chronicle-of-a-death-foretold/

  1. [1]Nolan D. McCaskill, “Historic deadlock continues: McCarthy takes another loss on 11th speaker ballot,” Los Angeles Times, January 5, 2023, https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-01-05/mccarthy-speaker-thursday-votes↩
  2. [2]Nolan D. McCaskill, “Historic deadlock continues: McCarthy takes another loss on 11th speaker ballot,” Los Angeles Times, January 5, 2023, https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-01-05/mccarthy-speaker-thursday-votes↩
  3. [3]Olivia Beavers et al., “McCarthy nears tentative deal with conservatives after days of stalemate,” Politico, January 5, 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/05/mccarthy-bid-00076520; Nolan D. McCaskill, “Historic deadlock continues: McCarthy takes another loss on 11th speaker ballot,” Los Angeles Times, January 5, 2023, https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-01-05/mccarthy-speaker-thursday-votes↩
  4. [4]Tina Nguyen, “McCarthy’s Chronicle of a Death Foretold,” Puck News, January 5, 2023, https://puck.news/mccarthys-chronicle-of-a-death-foretold/↩
  5. [5]Olivia Beavers et al., “McCarthy nears tentative deal with conservatives after days of stalemate,” Politico, January 5, 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/05/mccarthy-bid-00076520↩
  6. [6]Tara Palmeri, “Scalise Smoke Signals,” Puck News, January 4, 2023, https://puck.news/scalise-smoke-signals/↩
  7. [7]Tara Palmeri, “We Need to Talk About Kevin, ” Puck News, January 3, 2023, https://puck.news/we-need-to-talk-about-kevin/; Tara Palmeri, “Scalise Smoke Signals,” Puck News, January 4, 2023, https://puck.news/scalise-smoke-signals/↩

We’ve all seen politicians humiliate themselves. Then there’s Kevin McCarthy. (Updated)

benfell

Almost as soon as I published this issue, I received a Puck News newsletter[1] and found confirmation that the House of Representatives had indeed adjourned for the day.[2] Text has been updated.

Gilead

Speaker of the House of Representatives


Fig. 1. Photograph credited to Office of Congressman Kevin McCarthy, date inconsistent with title but given as November 9, 2022, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

The 20 Republicans who had opposed [Kevin] McCarthy in the third vote Tuesday [January 3] all supported [Byron] Donalds in subsequent ballots Wednesday. That group included Donalds, who cast votes for himself three times after backing McCarthy on the first and second ballots and supporting Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) on the third.

Instead of gaining ground, McCarthy fell further from his goal: His vote total declined with Donalds switching votes and Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) voting present.[3]

There’s still not much sign that Tara Palmeri is right about Steve Scalise[4] but she’s now reporting some stirrings on that front.[5] I’ll be awfully surprised if she’s wrong, however, about Kevin McCarthy and he pulls this out after all.[6]

Natalie Andrews and Eliza Collins, “Kevin McCarthy Falls Short of House Speaker Win in Three Rounds of Voting,” Wall Street Journal, January 3, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/house-prepares-to-vote-for-speaker-as-kevin-mccarthy-tries-to-rally-support-11672750973

Aaron Blake, “McCarthy’s big concession — and how it could hamstring a GOP speaker,” Washington Post, January 3, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/03/motion-vacate-house-speaker/

John Cassidy, “Behind the Humiliation of Kevin McCarthy,” New Yorker, January 3, 2023, https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/behind-the-humiliation-of-kevin-mccarthy

Clare Foran et al., “House adjourns after chaotic day without electing a speaker as McCarthy fails to lock down votes,” CNN, January 3, 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/03/politics/house-speaker-vote-mccarthy/index.html

Tara Palmeri, “We Need to Talk About Kevin, ” Puck News, January 3, 2023, https://puck.news/we-need-to-talk-about-kevin/

Clare Foran et al., “House adjourns for second day without electing a speaker with McCarthy’s bid in peril,” CNN, January 4, 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/04/politics/kevin-mccarthy-speaker-vote/index.html

Nolan D. McCaskill, “Deadlocked House adjourns until evening after Kevin McCarthy racks up yet another defeat,” Los Angeles Times, January 4, 2023, https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-01-04/trump-mccarthy-speaker-votes

Illiberalism


Fig. 1. Photograph by Joachim F. Thurn, August 1991, Bundesarchiv, B 145 Bild-F089030-0003, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0 DE.

Jeremy Sharon, “Justice minister unveils plan to shackle the High Court, overhaul Israel’s judiciary,” Times of Israel, January 4, 2023, https://www.timesofisrael.com/justice-minister-unveils-plan-to-shackle-the-high-court-overhaul-israels-judiciary/

  1. [1]Julia Ioffe to The Best and The Brightest list, “The War of Boebert Aggression,” Puck News, February 4, 2023, https://puck.news↩
  2. [2]Clare Foran et al., “House adjourns for second day without electing a speaker with McCarthy’s bid in peril,” CNN, January 4, 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/04/politics/kevin-mccarthy-speaker-vote/index.html↩
  3. [3]Nolan D. McCaskill, “Deadlocked House adjourns until evening after Kevin McCarthy racks up yet another defeat,” Los Angeles Times, January 4, 2023, https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-01-04/trump-mccarthy-speaker-votes↩
  4. [4]Tara Palmeri, “We Need to Talk About Kevin, ” Puck News, January 3, 2023, https://puck.news/we-need-to-talk-about-kevin/↩
  5. [5]Julia Ioffe to The Best and The Brightest list, “The War of Boebert Aggression,” Puck News, February 4, 2023, https://puck.news↩
  6. [6]Tara Palmeri, “We Need to Talk About Kevin, ” Puck News, January 3, 2023, https://puck.news/we-need-to-talk-about-kevin/↩

A tale of two Houses of Representatives

benfell

Pennsylvania

2022 election


Fig. 1. John Fetterman as mayor of Braddock, photograph uncredited and undated, via Next Pittsburgh,[1] fair use.

To nearly everyone’s surprise, the Pennsylvania House of Representatives, with some Republican support, selected Mark Rozzi, elected as a Democrat, but turning independent and refusing to caucus with either party as speaker.[2] The atmosphere there and in the state senate[3] appears to be of white Christian nationalists seemingly feeling surprisingly but appropriately chastened by the defeat of Doug Mastriano[4] (we’ll see how long that lasts), and pledging bipartisanship.[5]

Stephen Caruso, Kate Huangpu, and Katie Meyer, “Democrats and a handful of Republicans picked the Pennsylvania House’s new speaker,” Spotlight PA, January 3, 2022, https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2023/01/pa-midterm-election-2022-house-majority-democrats-speaker-election/

Andrew Seidman and Gillian McGoldrick, “Mark Rozzi, a Democrat-turned-independent, is now speaker of the Pa. House after a surprise vote,” Philadelphia Inquirer, January 3, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/mark-rozzi-democrat-elected-speaker-pennsylvania-house-20230103.html

U.S. House of Representatives

I think I’m glad I’m not in Tara Palmeri’s shoes. She has to sound smart about battle royal over the speakership of the U.S. House of Representatives, where things aren’t going nearly so swimmingly as in Pennsylvania. And despite the mayhem, she has to offer some prognostication of what might occur.

As they courted conservative media icons, [Kevin] McCarthy’s team reciprocated the false courage. They insisted that it was all under control—those five persnickety “No” votes, the “saboteurs” as Mark Levin dubbed them, would eventually get with the program. McCarthy, the ultimate vote whipper, would make the math work. And yet it turns out, of course, that the situation was far bleaker than they ever let on. “It’s a big black eye for Republicans. We come into office, we can’t govern or pick a speaker,” said a senior Hill Republican. “It’s complete chaos.”[6]

The picture Palmeri paints suggests that Kevin McCarthy will not emerge as speaker. There aren’t a lot of egos dead set against him, but in the current context, it just doesn’t take that many, and there are enough.[7]

Palmeri devotes a fair amount of space to the possibility of Steve Scalise pursuing and possibly winning the speakership. She seems to think “that something will break by tomorrow [January 4] afternoon” and she seems to think that, at the end of the day, it might very well be Scalise.[8]

We’ll see. The very fact that this situation is rare[9] means there isn’t really a lot of experience to base forecasts on.

So what am I doing? Keeping my trap the fuck shut. Meanwhile, Palmeri has hedged her bets; she won’t lose much if it all goes some other way. And at least she can take solace in the fact she’s getting paid.

Aaron Blake, “McCarthy’s big concession — and how it could hamstring a GOP speaker,” Washington Post, January 3, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/01/03/motion-vacate-house-speaker/

Clare Foran et al., “House adjourns after chaotic day without electing a speaker as McCarthy fails to lock down votes,” CNN, January 3, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/03/politics/house-speaker-vote-mccarthy/index.html

Tara Palmeri, “We Need to Talk About Kevin, ” Puck News, January 3, 2022, https://puck.news/we-need-to-talk-about-kevin/

  1. [1]Kim Lyons, “Braddock Mayor John Fetterman keeps on truckin’ in his quest for the Senate,” Next Pittsburgh, March 11, 2016, https://nextpittsburgh.com/features/the-challengers-braddock-mayor-john-fetterman-keeps-on-truckin/↩
  2. [2]Stephen Caruso, Kate Huangpu, and Katie Meyer, “Democrats and a handful of Republicans picked the Pennsylvania House’s new speaker,” Spotlight PA, January 3, 2022, https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2023/01/pa-midterm-election-2022-house-majority-democrats-speaker-election/; Andrew Seidman and Gillian McGoldrick, “Mark Rozzi, a Democrat-turned-independent, is now speaker of the Pa. House after a surprise vote,” Philadelphia Inquirer, January 3, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/mark-rozzi-democrat-elected-speaker-pennsylvania-house-20230103.html↩
  3. [3]Andrew Seidman and Gillian McGoldrick, “Mark Rozzi, a Democrat-turned-independent, is now speaker of the Pa. House after a surprise vote,” Philadelphia Inquirer, January 3, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/mark-rozzi-democrat-elected-speaker-pennsylvania-house-20230103.html↩
  4. [4]Kris Maher, “Democrat Josh Shapiro Wins Pennsylvania Governor Race Over Doug Mastriano,” Wall Street Journal, November 9, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/election-midterms-2022/card/democrat-josh-shapiro-wins-pennsylvania-governor-race-over-doug-mastriano-rdDSLqwHlckU7Q5yZYF2↩
  5. [5]Stephen Caruso, Kate Huangpu, and Katie Meyer, “Democrats and a handful of Republicans picked the Pennsylvania House’s new speaker,” Spotlight PA, January 3, 2022, https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2023/01/pa-midterm-election-2022-house-majority-democrats-speaker-election/; Andrew Seidman and Gillian McGoldrick, “Mark Rozzi, a Democrat-turned-independent, is now speaker of the Pa. House after a surprise vote,” Philadelphia Inquirer, January 3, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/mark-rozzi-democrat-elected-speaker-pennsylvania-house-20230103.html↩
  6. [6]Tara Palmeri, “We Need to Talk About Kevin, ” Puck News, January 3, 2022, https://puck.news/we-need-to-talk-about-kevin/↩
  7. [7]Tara Palmeri, “We Need to Talk About Kevin, ” Puck News, January 3, 2022, https://puck.news/we-need-to-talk-about-kevin/↩
  8. [8]Tara Palmeri, “We Need to Talk About Kevin, ” Puck News, January 3, 2022, https://puck.news/we-need-to-talk-about-kevin/↩
  9. [9]Clare Foran et al., “House adjourns after chaotic day without electing a speaker as McCarthy fails to lock down votes,” CNN, January 3, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/03/politics/house-speaker-vote-mccarthy/index.html; Tara Palmeri, “We Need to Talk About Kevin, ” Puck News, January 3, 2022, https://puck.news/we-need-to-talk-about-kevin/↩

Grifter-In-Chief? Donald Trump wanted to trademark ‘Rigged Election’

benfell

Gilead

Donald Trump

Coup attempt


Fig. 1. “Jake Angeli (Qanon Shaman), seen holding a Qanon sign at the intersection of Bell Rd and 75th Ave in Peoria, Arizona, on 2020 October 15.” Photography by TheUnseen011101 [pseud.], October 15, 2020, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

The nation’s top military officer [Mark A. Milley] saw the Jan. 6 attack as similar to the “Reichstag moment” that led to Nazi dictatorship. Aides for former President Donald J. Trump saw their future job opportunities slipping away, and predicted being “perpetually unemployed.” Mr. Trump himself saw the push to overturn the 2020 election as a financial opportunity, moving to trademark the phrase “Rigged Election.”[1]

Luke Broadwater et al., “Trying to Trademark ‘Rigged Election,’ and Other Revelations From the Jan. 6 Transcripts,” New York Times, January 2, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/02/us/politics/jan-6-committee-transcripts.html

Twitter


Fig. 1. “Elon Musk shared a video of his entrance on his Twitter account.” Photograph attributed to Elon Musk, October 26, 2022, via the New York Post,[2] fair use.

We can now safely say that Elon Musk has been diminished.[3] Whether he has been humbled is a separate question. And yes, you absolutely may wonder how much further he will fall.[4]

Karishma Vanjani and Al Root, “Tesla Drops Out of the 10 Biggest U.S. Public Companies,” Barron’s, December 27, 2022, https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-price-market-cap-tsla-51672162042

Barron’s, “Tesla Falls to Two-Year Low. Why It May Not Have Bottomed Out,” December 28, 2022, https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-know-today-51672216064

Seth Masket, “RIP Twitter’s intellectual community,” Denver Post, December 29, 2022, https://www.denverpost.com/2022/12/29/why-leave-twitter-seth-masket-rip-twitter/

Meghan Bobrowsky, “Tesla Stock Fell 65% in 2022, Its Biggest-Ever Annual Decline,” Wall Street Journal, December 30, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-stock-is-headed-for-its-biggest-ever-annual-decline-11672374248

Brian Chappatta, “Elon Musk Becomes First Person Ever to Lose $200 Billion,” Bloomberg, December 30, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-30/elon-musk-becomes-first-person-ever-to-lose-200-billion

Esha Dey, “Tesla Stock Had the Worst Year Ever. That Doesn’t Make It Cheap,” Bloomberg, December 31, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-31/tesla-stock-had-the-worst-year-ever-that-doesn-t-make-it-cheap

James R. Hagerty, “Twitter Sued Over Rent Payment in San Francisco,” Wall Street Journal, January 1, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/twitter-sued-over-rent-payment-in-san-francisco-11672622435

Gilead

White Christian nationalism (Trumpism)


Fig. 1. A Ku Klux Klan meeting in Gainesville, Florida, Dec. 31, 1922, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Bess Levin, “A Comprehensive Guide to Why a Ron DeSantis Presidency Would Be as Terrifying as a Trump One,” Vanity Fair, January 2, 2023, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/12/ron-desantis-just-as-bad-as-donald-trump-2024

  1. [1]Luke Broadwater et al., “Trying to Trademark ‘Rigged Election,’ and Other Revelations From the Jan. 6 Transcripts,” New York Times, January 2, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/02/us/politics/jan-6-committee-transcripts.html↩
  2. [2]Thomas Barrabi, “Elon Musk barges into Twitter HQ as deal nears: ‘Let that sink in,’” New York Post, October 26, 2022, https://nypost.com/2022/10/26/elon-musk-barges-into-twitter-headquarters-as-deal-nears/↩
  3. [3]Barron’s, “Tesla Falls to Two-Year Low. Why It May Not Have Bottomed Out,” December 28, 2022, https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-know-today-51672216064; Meghan Bobrowsky, “Tesla Stock Fell 65% in 2022, Its Biggest-Ever Annual Decline,” Wall Street Journal, December 30, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-stock-is-headed-for-its-biggest-ever-annual-decline-11672374248; Meghan Bobrowsky, “Tesla Stock Fell 65% in 2022, Its Biggest-Ever Annual Decline,” Wall Street Journal, December 30, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-stock-is-headed-for-its-biggest-ever-annual-decline-11672374248; Brian Chappatta, “Elon Musk Becomes First Person Ever to Lose $200 Billion,” Bloomberg, December 30, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-30/elon-musk-becomes-first-person-ever-to-lose-200-billion; Brian Chappatta, “Elon Musk Becomes First Person Ever to Lose $200 Billion,” Bloomberg, December 30, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-30/elon-musk-becomes-first-person-ever-to-lose-200-billion; Esha Dey, “Tesla Stock Had the Worst Year Ever. That Doesn’t Make It Cheap,” Bloomberg, December 31, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-31/tesla-stock-had-the-worst-year-ever-that-doesn-t-make-it-cheap; Esha Dey, “Tesla Stock Had the Worst Year Ever. That Doesn’t Make It Cheap,” Bloomberg, December 31, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-31/tesla-stock-had-the-worst-year-ever-that-doesn-t-make-it-cheap; Seth Masket, “RIP Twitter’s intellectual community,” Denver Post, December 29, 2022, https://www.denverpost.com/2022/12/29/why-leave-twitter-seth-masket-rip-twitter/; Seth Masket, “RIP Twitter’s intellectual community,” Denver Post, December 29, 2022, https://www.denverpost.com/2022/12/29/why-leave-twitter-seth-masket-rip-twitter/; Karishma Vanjani and Al Root, “Tesla Drops Out of the 10 Biggest U.S. Public Companies,” Barron’s, December 27, 2022, https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-price-market-cap-tsla-51672162042; Karishma Vanjani and Al Root, “Tesla Drops Out of the 10 Biggest U.S. Public Companies,” Barron’s, December 27, 2022, https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-price-market-cap-tsla-51672162042↩
  4. [4]Barron’s, “Tesla Falls to Two-Year Low. Why It May Not Have Bottomed Out,” December 28, 2022, https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-know-today-51672216064; Esha Dey, “Tesla Stock Had the Worst Year Ever. That Doesn’t Make It Cheap,” Bloomberg, December 31, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-31/tesla-stock-had-the-worst-year-ever-that-doesn-t-make-it-cheap; Esha Dey, “Tesla Stock Had the Worst Year Ever. That Doesn’t Make It Cheap,” Bloomberg, December 31, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-31/tesla-stock-had-the-worst-year-ever-that-doesn-t-make-it-cheap↩

Israel as the only ‘democracy’ in the region? Sorry, Binyamin Netanyahu is taking away that excuse

benfell

Illiberalism


Fig. 1. Photograph by Joachim F. Thurn, August 1991, Bundesarchiv, B 145 Bild-F089030-0003, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0 DE.

Israel’s defenders often point to it being the only “democracy” in the Middle East. But it’s government is likely about to start looking a lot more like Turkey’s.

David Horovitz, “Hanukkah 2022, when Netanyahu began turning out the lights on Israeli democracy,” Times of Israel, January 1, 2023, https://www.timesofisrael.com/hanukkah-2022-when-netanyahu-began-turning-out-the-lights-on-israeli-democracy/

Gilead

Twitter


Fig. 1. “Elon Musk shared a video of his entrance on his Twitter account.” Photograph attributed to Elon Musk, October 26, 2022, via the New York Post,[1] fair use.

Elon Musk was the second person ever to amass a personal fortune of more than $200 billion, breaching that threshold in January 2021, months after Jeff Bezos.

The Tesla Inc. chief executive officer has now achieved a first of his own: becoming the only person in history to erase $200 billion from their net worth.[2]

Karishma Vanjani and Al Root, “Tesla Drops Out of the 10 Biggest U.S. Public Companies,” Barron’s, December 27, 2022, https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-price-market-cap-tsla-51672162042

Barron’s, “Tesla Falls to Two-Year Low. Why It May Not Have Bottomed Out,” December 28, 2022, https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-know-today-51672216064

Seth Masket, “RIP Twitter’s intellectual community,” Denver Post, December 29, 2022, https://www.denverpost.com/2022/12/29/why-leave-twitter-seth-masket-rip-twitter/

Meghan Bobrowsky, “Tesla Stock Fell 65% in 2022, Its Biggest-Ever Annual Decline,” Wall Street Journal, December 30, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-stock-is-headed-for-its-biggest-ever-annual-decline-11672374248

Brian Chappatta, “Elon Musk Becomes First Person Ever to Lose $200 Billion,” Bloomberg, December 30, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-30/elon-musk-becomes-first-person-ever-to-lose-200-billion

  1. [1]Thomas Barrabi, “Elon Musk barges into Twitter HQ as deal nears: ‘Let that sink in,’” New York Post, October 26, 2022, https://nypost.com/2022/10/26/elon-musk-barges-into-twitter-headquarters-as-deal-nears/↩
  2. [2]Brian Chappatta, “Elon Musk Becomes First Person Ever to Lose $200 Billion,” Bloomberg, December 30, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-30/elon-musk-becomes-first-person-ever-to-lose-200-billion↩