Year: 2016

Horse race

I’ve been hearing informally about racist incidents since Donald Trump’s apparent election win for a while now and it would seem the Southern Poverty Law Center is tracking these, at least among schoolchildren.^[1] These events are doubly disturbing, first, for the fact they occur in the first place, and second, for what they say about children growing up even now. Any notion that we are in a post-racial society must now be firmly put to rest. At the same time, the left’s absolute refusal to address poverty and the problems of the working class^[2] is making it difficult for me to give a damn. It requires me to care about people who manifestly hate me for my race and gender^[3] and I’m just not that much of a saint.

All this said, it’s time to go on record with what is mostly a refusal to answer how all this will play out. I think it is clear that Donald Trump’s victory represents a tipping point for the Republican Party. Authoritarian populism, whose distinction from paleoconservatism seems fuzzier even than the other distinctions among conservative tendencies, seems likely now to be the clearly dominant ideology within that party. Yes, as we’re seeing with the schoolchildren, this will be ugly. At the same time, as I noted in my dissertation, whenever politicians attain power, they effectively become functionalist conservatives, with an interest not only in preserving the status quo that they are now a part of, but in preserving their own positions.^[4] This mix is both frightening and unpredictable.

Beyond that, I have no answer for whether this result is also a tipping point for the Democratic Party, the two-party system, the U.S. system of governance, or even the U.S. itself. If there is a silver lining to this outcome, it may be that the status quo may now be challenged more deeply than anyone who voted for “the lesser of two evils” was willing to contemplate. But with that silver lining also comes a warning: We really do not know what lies on the other side of a tipping point. It does not follow from the destruction of one evil order that something good will arise to take its place.

Tasneem Nashrulla, “Trump’s Win Is Having A ‘Profoundly Negative Impact’ On Students, According To Hate Watch Group,” Buzzfeed, November 29, 2016, https://www.buzzfeed.com/tasneemnashrulla/splc-report-trump-effect

Democracy Now! “Cornel West: Unlike Bernie Sanders, I’m Not Convinced the Democratic Party Can Be Reformed,” December 1, 2016, https://www.democracynow.org/2016/12/1/cornel_west_bernie_sanders_is_wrong

---

1. ^[1]Tasneem Nashrulla, “Trump’s Win Is Having A ‘Profoundly Negative Impact’ On Students, According To Hate Watch Group,” Buzzfeed, November 29, 2016, https://www.buzzfeed.com/tasneemnashrulla/splc-report-trump-effect↩
2. ^[2]Democracy Now! “Cornel West: Unlike Bernie Sanders, I’m Not Convinced the Democratic Party Can Be Reformed,” December 1, 2016, https://www.democracynow.org/2016/12/1/cornel_west_bernie_sanders_is_wrong↩
3. ^[3]David Benfell, “Farewell to the left,” Not Housebroken, November 28, 2016, https://disunitedstates.org/?p=9133↩
4. ^[4]David Benfell, “Conservative Views on Undocumented Migration” (doctoral dissertation, Saybrook, 2016). ProQuest (1765416126).↩

Oil prices

Nayla Razzouk, Angelina Rascouet, and Golnar Motevalli, “OPEC Confounds Skeptics, Agrees to First Oil Cuts in 8 Years,” Bloomberg, November 30, 2016, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/opec-said-to-agree-oil-production-cuts-as-saudis-soften-on-iran

---

Horse race

Greg Palast, “The No-BS Inside Guide to the Presidential Vote Recount,” Truthout, November 30, 2016, http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/38553-the-no-bs-inside-guide-to-the-presidential-vote-recount

Rebecca Savransky, “Jill Stein files for recount in Michigan,” Hill, November 30, 2016, http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/308124-jill-stein-files-for-recount-in-michigan

Daniel Strauss, “Jill Stein files for Michigan recount,” Politico, November 30, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/jill-stein-files-for-michigan-recount-232015

A new blog post is here.

---

Horse race

Brent Griffiths, “Clinton campaign to join Wisconsin recount,” Politico, November 26, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/clinton-campaign-wisconsin-recount-231847

Tim Duy, “On Krugman And The Working Class,” Economist’s View, November 27, 2016, http://economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/2016/11/on-krugman-and-the-working-class.html

Mallory Shelbourne, “Stein files for recount in Pennsylvania,” Hill, November 28, 2016, http://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/307694-stein-files-for-recount-in-pennsylvania

---

Standing Rock

Roisin O’Connor, “Standing Rock: North Dakota access pipeline demonstrators say white people are ‘treating protest like Burning Man,'” Independent, November 28, 2016, http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/music/news/standing-rockth-dakota-access-pipeline-burning-man-festival-a7443266.html

---

Horse race

It appears that the left will do anything, even spend millions of dollars,^[1] to avoid facing up to the reasons it lost this election.^[2]

And all I can say is that after fifteen years of unemployment, the more the left yammers on about white and male privilege, the less I feel it. This is not a left I considered myself a part of; it is a left that couldn’t care less about making it possible for me to find work. Which is to say that not only does it not care about me as a human being in the slightest, but given the lethal effects of the neoliberal economic policy with which it is complicit,^[3] it would be quite happy for me to die.

I know you’re all worried about the alleged fascism of Donald Trump and his incoming administration. But I’m already feeling the effects of fascism, a fascism you find quite acceptable in insisting on Hillary Clinton. So all you leftists can go to the same hell to which I condemn the right.

Joe Uchill, “Left’s new argument: Hillary didn’t lose,” Hill, November 23, 2016, http://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/307388-lefts-new-argument-hillary-didnt-lose

Zach Montellaro, “Jill Stein files for recount in Wisconsin,” Politico, November 25, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/jill-stein-recount-effort-231829

---

1. ^[1]Zach Montellaro, “Jill Stein files for recount in Wisconsin,” Politico, November 25, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/jill-stein-recount-effort-231829↩
2. ^[2]Joe Uchill, “Left’s new argument: Hillary didn’t lose,” Hill, November 23, 2016, http://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/307388-lefts-new-argument-hillary-didnt-lose↩
3. ^[3]Juan Cole, “Why the White Working Class Rebelled: Neoliberalism Is Killing Them (Literally),” Truthdig, November 9, 2016, Why the White Working Class Rebelled: Neoliberalism Is Killing Them (Literally); Gina Kolata, “Death Rates Rising for Middle-Aged White Americans, Study Finds,” New York Times, November 2, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/03/health/death-rates-rising-for-middle-aged-white-americans-study-finds.html; Paul Krugman, “Heartland of Darkness,” New York Times, November 4, 2015, http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/11/04/heartland-of-darkness/; Paul Krugman, “Despair, American Style,” New York Times, November 9, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/09/opinion/despair-american-style.html; Josh Zumbrun, “The Economic Roots of the Climbing Death Rate for Middle-Aged Whites,” Wall Street Journal, November 3, 2015, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/11/03/the-economic-roots-of-the-climbing-death-rate-for-middle-aged-whites/↩

Horse race

Because, obviously, we can’t just ask whites why they voted for Donald Trump. That might be scientific or something.

German Lopez, “Most Ohio and Pennsylvania counties that flipped from Obama to Trump are wracked by heroin,” Vox, November 22, 2016, http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/22/13698476/trump-opioid-heroin-epidemic

Derek Thompson, “Red Nation, Pink Economics,” Atlantic, November 22, 2016, https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/11/red-nation-pink-economics/508445/

---

Dakota Access Pipeline

Chris Michaud, “Police clash with North Dakota pipeline protesters, arrest one,” Reuters, November 21, 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/usth-dakota-pipeline-idUSKBN13G0BS

---

TransPacific Partnership

In this TPP study, the authors find:

• TPP would generate net losses of GDP in the United States and Japan. For the United States, they project that GDP would be 0.54 percent lower than it would be without TPP, 10 years after the treaty enters into force. Japan’s GDP is projected to decrease 0.12 percent.
• Economic gains would be negligible for other participating countries – less than one percent over ten years for developed countries and less than three percent for developing ones. These projections are similar to previous findings that TPP gains would be small for many countries.
• TPP would lead to employment losses in all countries, with a total of 771,000 lost jobs. The United States would be the hardest hit, with a loss of 448,000 jobs. Developing economies participating in the agreement would also suffer employment losses, as higher competitive pressures force them to curtail labor incomes and increase production for export.
• TPP would lead to higher inequality, as measured by changes in the labor share of national income. The authors foresee competitive pressures on labor income combining with employment losses to push labor shares lower, redistributing income from labor to capital in all countries. In the United States, this would exacerbate a multi-decade downward trend.
• TPP would lead to losses in GDP and employment in non-TPP countries. In large part, the loss in GDP (3.77 percent) and employment (879,000) among non-TPP developed countries would be driven by losses in Europe, while developing country losses in GDP (5.24%) and employment (4.45 million) reflect projected losses in China and India.^[1]

We should no longer buy the statistically strained arguments about [free trade agreements] delivering growth and jobs. The evidence just isn’t there, a fact not lost on those campaigning for president.^[2]

But Barack Obama insisted, through his principal deputy press secretary, that the agreement was “good policy for American businesses and American workers,” even as it was clear that voters disagreed.^[3] “What seems most striking is that the angry working class — dismissed so often as myopic, unable to understand the economic trade-offs presented by trade — appears to have understood what the experts are only belatedly finding to be true: The benefits from trade to the American economy may not always justify its costs.”^[4]

It ain’t the experts who are unemployed with no visible hope of ever finding well-paid work ever again. And it ain’t the politicians, least of all Obama (who responded to persistent unemployment saying, “We all know there are limits to what government can and should do even during such difficult times”^[5]), who are committing suicide and dying from drug overdoses to ameliorate their pain.^[6] These have been murderous policies that complement the war criminality of our political elite and while I generally oppose the death penalty, when it comes to these elites, I can only think they should uniformly be lined up and shot. No trial in their rigged criminal injustice system, no bullshit. Just the sooner they are executed, the better.

British Broadcasting Corporation, “Trump: US to quit TPP trade deal on first day in office,” November 21, 2016, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38059623

---

Horse race

David Gutman, “His Japanese-American parents were held in camps; now historian sees ‘same patterns’ emerging,” Seattle Times, November 21, 2016, http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/japanese-american-internment-shouldnt-be-precedent-for-our-times-says-historian/

---

1. ^[1]Jeronim Capaldo and Alex Izurieta with Jomo Kwame Sundaram, “Unemployment, Inequality and Other Risks of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement,” Global Development and Environment Institute, January, 2016, http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae/policy_research/TPP_simulations.html↩
2. ^[2]Jared Bernstein, “The Era of Free Trade Might Be Over. That’s a Good Thing,” New York Times, March 14, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/14/opinion/the-era-of-free-trade-might-be-over-thats-a-good-thing.html↩
3. ^[3]John T. Bennett, “Despite Convention Jeers, Obama to Continue TPP,” Congressional Quarterly Roll Call, July 29, 2016, http://www.rollcall.com/news/despite-convention-jeers-obama-to-continue-trade-push↩
4. ^[4]Eduardo Porter, “On Trade, Angry Voters Have a Point,” New York Times, March 15, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/16/business/economy/on-trade-angry-voters-have-a-point.html↩
5. ^[5]Michael A. Fletcher and Neil Irwin, “Obama to have forum on job creation,” San Francisco Chronicle, November 13, 2009, http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/11/13/MNL31AJFT4.DTL↩
6. ^[6]Juan Cole, “Why the White Working Class Rebelled: Neoliberalism Is Killing Them (Literally),” Truthdig, November 9, 2016, Why the White Working Class Rebelled: Neoliberalism Is Killing Them (Literally); Gina Kolata, “Death Rates Rising for Middle-Aged White Americans, Study Finds,” New York Times, November 2, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/03/health/death-rates-rising-for-middle-aged-white-americans-study-finds.html; Paul Krugman, “Heartland of Darkness,” New York Times, November 4, 2015, http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/11/04/heartland-of-darkness/; Paul Krugman, “Despair, American Style,” New York Times, November 9, 2015, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/09/opinion/despair-american-style.html; Josh Zumbrun, “The Economic Roots of the Climbing Death Rate for Middle-Aged Whites,” Wall Street Journal, November 3, 2015, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/11/03/the-economic-roots-of-the-climbing-death-rate-for-middle-aged-whites/↩

Updated for a story on Brexit from yesterday that I forgot earlier.

---

---

Horse race

Yesterday, a report appeared on the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation in which the Canadian Ambassador to the United States declared that “Canadians have to do a better job selling Americans on the benefits of our interdependence on issues like trade and security.” He means to defend trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement, which Donald Trump ran against.^[1] I respond to His Excellency here.

I have previously commented on the gist of Rob Hoffman’s analysis in Politico here, here, and here, but one thing Hoffman observes is that “liberals are seemingly yet to grasp why they lost this election.”^[2] It’s early yet and there are occasional counter-indications,^[3] but I don’t see anything like enough to say he’s wrong. Indeed, when Democrats blame redistricting,^[4] they’re actually begging the question because the reason the Republicans are able to gerrymander in favor of Republicans is that Republicans have been winning at the state level pretty much throughout Barack Obama’s presidency.^[5] So an answer to the question of why Democrats are losing requires answering why they’re as unpopular as they are.

Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, “Canada needs to do better job selling the U.S. on trade benefits, says ambassador,” November 19, 2016, http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/nova-scotia/canada-ambassador-trade-benefits-with-u-s-1.3858829

Rob Hoffman, “How the Left Created Trump,” Politico, November 20, 2016, http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/how-the-left-created-donald-trump-214472

Maggie Severns and Theodoric Meyer, “House Democrats lament blue-collar collapse,” Politico, November 20, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/house-democrats-worry-blue-collar-voters-231635

---

Brexit

Now that Donald Trump has won in the U.S., European leaders are taking seriously the possibility that Marine Le Pen might win in France. Hoping to discourage that eventuality, they will adopt a harder line against Brexit.^[6]

Toby Helm, “Europe’s leaders to force Britain into hard Brexit,” Guardian, November 19, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/19/europes-leaders-force-uk-hard-brexit-farage-le-pen

---

1. ^[1]Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, “Canada needs to do better job selling the U.S. on trade benefits, says ambassador,” November 19, 2016, http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/nova-scotia/canada-ambassador-trade-benefits-with-u-s-1.3858829↩
2. ^[2]Rob Hoffman, “How the Left Created Trump,” Politico, November 20, 2016, http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/how-the-left-created-donald-trump-214472↩
3. ^[3]for examples, Juan Cole, “Why the White Working Class Rebelled: Neoliberalism Is Killing Them (Literally),” Truthdig, November 9, 2016, http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/why_the_white_working_class_rebelled_neoliberalism_is_killing_20161109; Cathleen Decker, “For reeling Democrats, now what?” Los Angeles Times, November 10, 2016, http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-clinton-democrats-20161109-story.html; David Dayen, “The ‘Deplorables Got the Last Laugh,” New Republic, November 9, 2016, https://newrepublic.com/article/138615/deplorables-got-last-laugh; Jonathan Easley, “Seething liberals vow revolution in Democratic Party,” Hill, November 12, 2016, http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/305617-seething-liberals-vow-revolution-in-democratic-party; Thomas Frank, “Donald Trump is moving to the White House, and liberals put him there,” Guardian, November 9, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/09/donald-trump-white-house-hillary-clinton-liberals; Kevin Gosztola, “The Hubris of Democratic Elites, Clinton Campaign Gave Us President Trump,” Common Dreams, November 9, 2016, http://www.commondreams.org/views/2016/11/09/hubris-democratic-elites-clinton-campaign-gave-us-president-trump; Brad Reed, “Michael Moore’s tough words for liberals: ‘You weren’t paying attention to your fellow Americans,’” Raw Story, November 9, 2016, http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/michael-moores-tough-words-for-liberals-you-werent-paying-attention-to-your-fellow-americans/; Darren Samuelsohn, “Democrats: We ran into an unstoppable wave,” Politico, November 9, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/clinton-supporters-fallout-2016-election-231056; Maggie Severns and Theodoric Meyer, “House Democrats lament blue-collar collapse,” Politico, November 20, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/house-democrats-worry-blue-collar-voters-231635↩
4. ^[4]Maggie Severns and Theodoric Meyer, “House Democrats lament blue-collar collapse,” Politico, November 20, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/house-democrats-worry-blue-collar-voters-231635↩
5. ^[5]Jeff Greenfield, “Democratic Blues,” Politico, August 20, 2015, http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/democratic-blues-121561.html; K. K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, and Karl Russell, “In a Further Blow to Democrats, Republicans Increase Their Hold on State Governments,” New York Times, November 11, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/11/us/elections/state-legislature-change-in-control.html; Reid Wilson, “Dems hit new low in state legislatures,” Hill, November 18, 2016, http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/306736-dems-hit-new-low-in-state-legislatures↩
6. ^[6]Toby Helm, “Europe’s leaders to force Britain into hard Brexit,” Guardian, November 19, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/19/europes-leaders-force-uk-hard-brexit-farage-le-pen↩

Horse race

I wouldn’t call Michael Moore an expert and the other expert, a professor whose model correctly forecast Trump’s victory, admits that this forecast is based more on a hunch.^[1]

MercoPress, “Trump’s presidency short lived? Two experts who anticipated his victory make the prediction,” November 18, 2016, http://en.mercopress.com/2016/11/18/trump-s-presidency-short-lived-two-experts-who-anticipated-his-victory-make-the-prediction

---

International Criminal Court

Armin Rosen, “While the World Is Distracted, the International Criminal Court Is Quietly Bleeding Members,” Tablet, November 17, 2016, http://www.tabletmag.com/scroll/218142/while-the-world-is-distracted-the-international-criminal-court-is-quietly-bleeding-members

---

Democratic Wipeout

Reid Wilson, “Dems hit new low in state legislatures,” Hill, November 18, 2016, http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/306736-dems-hit-new-low-in-state-legislatures

---

1. ^[1]https://parts-unknown.org/drupal7/content/both-parties%E2%80%99-presidential-front-runners-increasingly-unpopular↩

For the moment, I’m mostly finding the post-election hue and cry as unenlightening as the pre-election hue and cry. I knew I would be unhappy regardless of the outcome and I am indeed unhappy.

---

Eggs in California

It seems that states lack standing to sue on behalf of their egg producers.^[1]

Sudhin Thanawala, “Appeals court rejects lawsuit against California egg law,” Minneapolis Star-Tribune, November 17, 2016, http://www.startribune.com/appeals-court-rejects-lawsuit-against-california-egg-law/401735635/

---

Horse race

Joan C. Williams, What So Many People Don’t Get About the U.S. Working Class,” Harvard Business Review, November 10, 2016, https://hbr.org/2016/11/what-so-many-people-dont-get-about-the-u-s-working-class

George Monbiot, “The Deep History Behind Trump’s Rise,” November 15, 2016, http://www.monbiot.com/2016/11/15/the-deep-history-behind-trumps-rise

Michelle Chen, “For Millions, the Election Was Always Lost,” Truthout, November 16, 2016, http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/38389-for-millions-the-election-was-always-lost

John Hudak, “A reality check on 2016’s economically marginalized,” Brookings, November 16, 2016, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2016/11/16/economic-marginalization-reality-check/

---

Democratic wipe-out

Democrats were already losing state governments under Barack Obama.^[2] That continued in the November election.^[3]

K. K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, and Karl Russell, “In a Further Blow to Democrats, Republicans Increase Their Hold on State Governments,” New York Times, November 11, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/11/us/elections/state-legislature-change-in-control.html

1. ^[1]Sudhin Thanawala, “Appeals court rejects lawsuit against California egg law,” Minneapolis Star-Tribune, November 17, 2016, http://www.startribune.com/appeals-court-rejects-lawsuit-against-california-egg-law/401735635/↩
2. ^[2]Jeff Greenfield, “Democratic Blues,” Politico, August 20, 2015, http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/democratic-blues-121561.html↩
3. ^[3]K. K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, and Karl Russell, “In a Further Blow to Democrats, Republicans Increase Their Hold on State Governments,” New York Times, November 11, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/11/us/elections/state-legislature-change-in-control.html↩

Horse race

I have a new blog post up.

Jonathan Easley, “Seething liberals vow revolution in Democratic Party,” Hill, November 12, 2016, http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/305617-seething-liberals-vow-revolution-in-democratic-party

---