Year: 2016

TransPacific Partnership

It’s dead.^[1] Hallelujah, it’s dead.

William Mauldin, “Obama Administration Gives Up on Pacific Trade Deal,” Wall Street Journal, November 11, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/obama-administration-gives-up-on-pacific-trade-deal-1478895824

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Horse race

It’s like this: The Democrats have spent the last several decades trying to regain the South and trying to get Wall Street support. Republicans have the home field advantage on both and there’s absolutely no sign that that advantage is diminishing. But the Democrats wanted to live comfortable lives on Wall Street’s teat. They became corrupt, which is why they chose Hillary Clinton and then (probably) stole the nomination from Bernie Sanders. They’ve gotten what they deserve because they weren’t doing the country a bit of good.

Cathleen Decker, “For reeling Democrats, now what?” Los Angeles Times, November 10, 2016, http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-clinton-democrats-20161109-story.html

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1. ^[1]William Mauldin, “Obama Administration Gives Up on Pacific Trade Deal,” Wall Street Journal, November 11, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/obama-administration-gives-up-on-pacific-trade-deal-1478895824↩

Horse race

There were further updates to yesterday’s post, even late last night. It may be worth taking another look if you haven’t already. There is another new blog post in reaction to the reaction to the election results. This supplements my earlier post written late Tuesday night.

In assessing my record on this election, I credited Valerie Sue, the professor in my first methods class, for my repeated warnings about the current, dismal state of polling that indeed got the outcome of this election wrong^[1] but acknowledged that it remains to be seen whether my precise diagnosis is accurate. That pretty much turns out to be the state of things, but what she said back in 2003 still looks pretty right on.^[2]

Lois Beckett et al., “The real ‘shy Trump’ vote – how 53% of white women pushed him to victory,” Guardian, November 10, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/10/white-women-donald-trump-victory

Juan Cole, “Why the White Working Class Rebelled: Neoliberalism Is Killing Them (Literally),” Truthdig, November 9, 2016, http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/why_the_white_working_class_rebelled_neoliberalism_is_killing_20161109

Steve Kolowich, “Academic Pollsters Didn’t See All Those Trump Voters Coming, Either. Why Not?” Chronicle of Higher Education, November 10, 2016, http://www.chronicle.com/article/Academic-Pollsters-Didn-t/238362

Bernie Sanders, “Sanders Statement on Trump,” November 9, 2016, http://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2016/11/09/sanders-statement-trump

Robert Scheer, “Revenge of the ‘Deplorables,’” Truthdig, November 9, 2016, http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/revenge_of_the_deplorables_20161109

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1. ^[1]Jonathan Easley, “Pollsters suffer huge embarrassment,” Hill, November 9, 2016, http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/305133-pollsters-suffer-huge-embarrassment; Kenneth P. Vogel and Alex Isenstadt, “How did everyone get it so wrong?” Politico, November 9, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/how-did-everyone-get-2016-wrong-presidential-election-231036; Aaron Zitner, “Pollsters Whiffed on Voters’ Appetite for an Outsider,” Wall Street Journal, November 9, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/pollsters-whiffed-on-voters-appetite-for-an-outsider-1478679202↩
2. ^[2]Steve Kolowich, “Academic Pollsters Didn’t See All Those Trump Voters Coming, Either. Why Not?” Chronicle of Higher Education, November 10, 2016, http://www.chronicle.com/article/Academic-Pollsters-Didn-t/238362↩

Horse race

I respond to Donald Trump’s victory in a blog post.

It might be helpful to pull together my writings on this election. I have attempted to be comprehensive so you can see for yourself how right and how wrong I was. The titles often speak for themselves. Sometimes I have added notes in parentheses:

• First, in my blog, Not Housebroken:
  • June 24, 2014: Clinton owes rape victims a deeply-felt apology
  • November 5, 2014: Updated: The Democratic Party just isn’t that into you
  • January 27, 2015: Dear Hillary: What your husband can’t tell you (In fact, both major party nominees were deeply unpopular.)
  • April 17, 2015: Just sayin’ (This was a brief comment on Clinton’s logo.)
  • July 25, 2015: A journalistic disgrace
  • August 8, 2015: Sanity about Donald Trump (My doubts that Trump could win didn’t last very much longer.)
  • August 11, 2015: Bringing down Donald Trump (No one followed this advice.)
  • August 16, 2015: The buzzards are circling over the Clinton campaign
  • September 13, 2015: Democrats: As always, making it easier for Republicans
  • September 15, 2015: Bernie Sanders is doomed (Actually, outrage about the potential cost of Sanders’ proposals on health care isn’t what did him in.)
  • September 16, 2015: The misleading $18 trillion—and precisely how it is important (About the cost of Sanders’ proposals.)
  • September 20, 2015: No, we cannot all just get along: The dangerous delusions of the status quo
  • September 21, 2015: Hillary Clinton as the ultimate outsider
  • September 30, 2015: Watching the train wreck
  • October 11, 2015: Feminists for patriarchy
  • October 20, 2015: Donald Trump may well win in November 2016
  • November 22, 2015: The populist party in the U.S. is not Democratic
  • November 24, 2015: As the world fumbles toward another world war, the U.S. fumbles toward a Trump presidency
  • November 30, 2015: An essential first step
  • December 15, 2015: Yes, it really might be President Donald Trump
  • December 19, 2015: Two thumbs on two scales
  • December 29, 2015: The alternative to a ‘right wing nutcase’: Buying off poor whites
  • January 8, 2016: No kumbaya for Clinton (Updated)
  • January 15, 2016: On the feminist argument for Clinton
  • January 21, 2016: The very possible and increasingly probable President Trump
  • January 22, 2016: Conservatives swimming against the tide (In retrospect, I’m wondering if history will even remember the largely neoconservative effort to stop Trump.)
  • January 25, 2016: Just in time for the 2016 election (In retrospect, an economic downturn has yet to materialize, but the economy hasn’t really taken off either. However much one may be inclined to attribute Trump’s victory to economic conditions, it’s clear that the economy was insufficiently helpful to the incumbent Democrats.)
  • January 28, 2016: Cheering political incorrectness and irresponsible speech
  • January 31, 2016: Education for pacifying the population with illusory promises of prosperity
  • February 4, 2016: The real reason why Bernie Sanders’ ‘utopianism’ is a problem
  • February 18, 2016: The illegitimacy of the opposing party (This is largely about Barack Obama’s failed effort to replace the deceased Justice Antonin Scalia on the U.S. Supreme Court. It became a campaign issue.)
  • February 19, 2016: Trump’s alleged Christianity and the schism between ‘nice’ and ‘mean’ Christians
  • February 23, 2016: Why I do not vote (Generally applicable to all elections in the present paradigm.)
  • February 27, 2016: A pox on both your parties
  • March 3, 2016: Donald Trump would (and probably will) be the president the establishment deserves
  • March 6, 2016 (in its most recent re-publication): Updated (again and again and again): Damnation by faint praise: Sanders claims to be more electable than Clinton (My most comprehensive effort to detail Hillary Clinton’s failings as a candidate, it degenerated with successive edits into something of a ‘data dump.’)
  • March 12, 2016: Absolutely, there is a bug (This mentions Clinton’s email server controversy.)
  • March 20, 2016: The art of the intolerable
  • March 30, 2016: The New York Times gets it badly wrong on so-called ‘free’ trade
  • March 31, 2016: Donald Trump and the polls
  • April 4, 2016: Hillary Clinton, the entitled and the corrupt
  • April 11, 2016: On the Clintons and ‘listening’
  • June 8, 2016: The two-party system crashes and burns
  • June 15, 2016: My friends are harmful for my health
  • June 26, 2016: The ‘Brexit’ vote may signify the end of the illusion of ‘progress’ (This outcome foreshadowed yesterday’s result in the U.S. election both in 1) a voter rejection of elite policies that have failed to benefit ordinary people, and 2) completely wrong survey results that forecast an outcome different from what actually transpired.)
  • July 2, 2016: When experts are not experts (This is more about the ‘Brexit’ vote in the United Kingdom.)
  • October 10, 2016: Yes, Hillary Clinton must answer for Bill Clinton’s sexual assaults
  • November 2, 2016: A false dichotomy view of politics
  • November 9, 2016: Why Donald Trump won
• While I attempted for a long time to stop short of actually forecasting a Trump victory in public, preferring instead to warn of the possibility, in fact, I forecast it in response to a question at my dissertation defense on November 19, 2015. My committee members unanimously harrumphed and dismissed the possibility, which is actually part of the problem: We on the left have been entirely too dismissive even of legitimate working class white complaints.
• What I was more convinced of, for quite a long time, was that Clinton was incapable of defeating any of the loonies competing for the Republican nomination. As it happened, the successful loonie was Trump, who proved to be an even worse candidate than I imagined, first, about a month after he won the nomination, and second, early in October. This led me to doubt he could prevail and I never retreated from that doubt. Even as I think I understand his victory now, I have to admit that even I’m surprised that such a horrible candidate could win.
• One place I clearly was right was in warning about the accuracy of polls. This warning came as a product of misleading results in a number of preceding elections. With this election, once again, the polls were wrong and it’s only now occurring to folks that some rethinking might be in order.^[1] It remains to be seen, however, how accurate my diagnosis, largely drawn from a methods class taught by Valerie Sue at California State University, East Bay, in 2003 (yes, thirteen years ago!), proves to be.

It’s somewhat striking to see others saying something like what I said in my blog post. On one hand, it’s gratifying. But on the other hand, if you have to be told you “weren’t paying attention to your fellow Americans and their despair,”^[2] or if you’re only now listening to David Dayen when he writes the following because you’ve just gotten a hard slap across the face, that says something about your empathy and your compassion. It says you’re a fucking hypocrite:

You can believe that half the country is racist if you want, and there’s no question that there’s an undercurrent of anger in Trump’s stunning rise. But that anger isn’t directed at any individual ethnic group. It’s more inchoate than that. It’s rage at institutions that people believe have failed them forever. It’s rage at an economy that doesn’t work for ordinary folks. It’s rage at a cultural milieu that perceives too many non-coastal Americans as buffoons. It’s rage at the aftermath of a financial crisis and Great Recession, in which the gap between winners and losers just grew larger, and the two-tiered system of justice paraded on full display. It’s rage at an elite class that people feel is lined up against them.^[3]

And if you’re only now pondering Michelle Dean’s point that “[t]he parallels between the two cases [of Donald Trump and Bill Clinton] . . . not only mirror each other in their particulars, they also reflect certain attitudes about women and sex long held by many men in power,”^[4] then you need to stop calling yourself a feminist because your priorities were someplace besides personal autonomy for women.

And if you are a member of one of those groups, be it LGBTQ, Mexicans, Blacks, women, Muslims, the disabled, or any other group these progressives claim to care about, you’d better hold onto your wallet with both hands. Because what these assholes really care about are certain labels, not about human beings. I don’t know precisely what scam they’re running, but they’re running one.

What we’re seeing here is that a bunch of so-called ‘progressives’ really aren’t. They’re frauds. They’re in it because they think it’s the cool thing to do or because all their friends are ‘progressives’ or some other reason. But they aren’t concerned about human beings. And that makes them as hideous as any conservative.

As for the Democratic Party and the media—well, let me just let Thomas Frank take over:

To try to put over such a nominee [Clinton] while screaming that the Republican is a rightwing monster is to court disbelief. If Trump is a fascist, as liberals often said, Democrats should have put in their strongest player to stop him, not a party hack they’d chosen because it was her turn. Choosing her indicated either that Democrats didn’t mean what they said about Trump’s riskiness, that their opportunism took precedence over the country’s well-being, or maybe both.

Clinton’s supporters among the media didn’t help much, either. It always struck me as strange that such an unpopular candidate enjoyed such robust and unanimous endorsements from the editorial and opinion pages of the nation’s papers, but it was the quality of the media’s enthusiasm that really harmed her. With the same arguments repeated over and over, two or three times a day, with nuance and contrary views all deleted, the act of opening the newspaper started to feel like tuning in to a Cold War propaganda station. Here’s what it consisted of:

• Hillary was virtually without flaws. She was a peerless leader clad in saintly white, a super-lawyer, a caring benefactor of women and children, a warrior for social justice.
• Her scandals weren’t real.
• The economy was doing well / America was already great.
• Working-class people weren’t supporting Trump.
• And if they were, it was only because they were botched humans. Racism was the only conceivable reason for lining up with the Republican candidate.

How did the journalists’ crusade fail? The fourth estate came together in an unprecedented professional consensus. They chose insulting the other side over trying to understand what motivated them. They transformed opinion writing into a vehicle for high moral boasting. What could possibly have gone wrong with such an approach?^[5]

He concludes,

The even larger problem is that there is a kind of chronic complacency that has been rotting American liberalism for years, a hubris that tells Democrats they need do nothing different, they need deliver nothing really to anyone – except their friends on the Google jet and those nice people at Goldman. The rest of us are treated as though we have nowhere else to go and no role to play except to vote enthusiastically on the grounds that these Democrats are the “last thing standing” between us and the end of the world. It is a liberalism of the rich, it has failed the middle class, and now it has failed on its own terms of electability. Enough with these comfortable Democrats and their cozy Washington system. Enough with Clintonism and its prideful air of professional-class virtue. Enough!^[6]

Associated Press, “AP Calls The Election For Donald Trump,” Talking Points Memo, November 9, 2016, http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/ap-calls-for-trump

David Dayen, “The ‘Deplorables Got the Last Laugh,” New Republic, November 9, 2016, https://newrepublic.com/article/138615/deplorables-got-last-laugh

Michelle Dean, “Don’t Stop Believin’,” New Republic, November 9, 2016, https://newrepublic.com/article/138038/dont-stop-believin-election-reckoning-sexual-assault

Jonathan Easley, “Pollsters suffer huge embarrassment,” Hill, November 9, 2016, http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/305133-pollsters-suffer-huge-embarrassment

Lauren Fox, “Reports: Clinton Conceded To Trump Over The Phone,” Talking Points Memo, November 9, 2016, http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/clinton-conceded-to-trump-over-the-phone

Thomas Frank, “Donald Trump is moving to the White House, and liberals put him there,” Guardian, November 9, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/09/donald-trump-white-house-hillary-clinton-liberals

Annie Karni, “Shock, anger consume women at Clinton headquarters,” Politico, November 9, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/women-clinton-headquarters-2016-presidential-election-231049

German Lopez, “The diverse coalition that backed Clinton knows it isn’t looking good — and they’re scared,” Vox, November 9, 2016, http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/9/13572128/clinton-trump-scared-2016-election

Brad Reed, “Michael Moore’s tough words for liberals: ‘You weren’t paying attention to your fellow Americans,’” Raw Story, November 9, 2016, http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/michael-moores-tough-words-for-liberals-you-werent-paying-attention-to-your-fellow-americans/

Darren Samuelsohn, “Democrats: We ran into an unstoppable wave,” Politico, November 9, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/clinton-supporters-fallout-2016-election-231056

Tierney Sneed, “Trump wins in stunner,” Talking Points Memo, November 9, 2016, http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/trump-wins-the-presidency

Kenneth P. Vogel and Alex Isenstadt, “How did everyone get it so wrong?” Politico, November 9, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/how-did-everyone-get-2016-wrong-presidential-election-231036

Aaron Zitner, “Pollsters Whiffed on Voters’ Appetite for an Outsider,” Wall Street Journal, November 9, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/pollsters-whiffed-on-voters-appetite-for-an-outsider-1478679202

Aaron Zitner and Paul Overberg, “Rural Vote Fuels Trump; Clinton Loses Urban Grip,” Wall Street Journal, November 9, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/rural-vote-helps-donald-trump-as-hillary-clinton-holds-cities-1478664251

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1. ^[1]Jonathan Easley, “Pollsters suffer huge embarrassment,” Hill, November 9, 2016, http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/305133-pollsters-suffer-huge-embarrassment; Kenneth P. Vogel and Alex Isenstadt, “How did everyone get it so wrong?” Politico, November 9, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/how-did-everyone-get-2016-wrong-presidential-election-231036; Aaron Zitner, “Pollsters Whiffed on Voters’ Appetite for an Outsider,” Wall Street Journal, November 9, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/pollsters-whiffed-on-voters-appetite-for-an-outsider-1478679202↩
2. ^[2]Michael Moore, quoted in Brad Reed, “Michael Moore’s tough words for liberals: ‘You weren’t paying attention to your fellow Americans,’” Raw Story, November 9, 2016, http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/michael-moores-tough-words-for-liberals-you-werent-paying-attention-to-your-fellow-americans/↩
3. ^[3]David Dayen, “The ‘Deplorables Got the Last Laugh,” New Republic, November 9, 2016, https://newrepublic.com/article/138615/deplorables-got-last-laugh↩
4. ^[4]Michelle Dean, “Don’t Stop Believin’,” New Republic, November 9, 2016, https://newrepublic.com/article/138038/dont-stop-believin-election-reckoning-sexual-assault↩
5. ^[5]Thomas Frank, “Donald Trump is moving to the White House, and liberals put him there,” Guardian, November 9, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/09/donald-trump-white-house-hillary-clinton-liberals↩
6. ^[6]Thomas Frank, “Donald Trump is moving to the White House, and liberals put him there,” Guardian, November 9, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/09/donald-trump-white-house-hillary-clinton-liberals↩

With kind permission from Tikkun, I have republished Rabbi Michael Lerner’s recent article, “Psychopathology in the 2016 Election,” on my blog. This is the most comprehensive analysis of working class white disgruntlement I have seen.

Brexit

To me, the court ruling that Parliament must approve an invocation of Article 50 has the appearance of setting up an impasse: “The other 27 member states [of the European Union] have said negotiations about the terms of the UK’s exit – due to last two years – cannot begin until Article 50 has been invoked,”^[1] but Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn insists that “there must be transparency and accountability to Parliament on the terms of Brexit.”^[2] Which would seem to say that the government must apparently put all its cards on the table prior to opening what seem likely to be contentious negotiations with the rest of the EU. To do so would, of course, weaken the government’s negotiating position, meaning the U.K. will get a worse deal, probably somewhat worse than it would put on the table for Parliament.

British Broadcasting Corporation, “Brexit court defeat for UK government,” November 3, 2016, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37857785

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International Criminal Court

Theresa Lou, “ICC on Ice? Rescuing the International Criminal Court,” Foreign Affairs, November 4, 2016, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2016-11-04/icc-ice

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1. ^[1]British Broadcasting Corporation, “Brexit court defeat for UK government,” November 3, 2016, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37857785↩
2. ^[2]Jeremy Corbyn, quoted in British Broadcasting Corporation, “Brexit court defeat for UK government,” November 3, 2016, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37857785↩

Apparently a poll suggests that Donald Trump may be overtaking Hillary Clinton in the final week before election day.^[1] This produces the predictable admonition (on my side) that we “must vote” for Hillary Clinton as “the lesser of two evils.”

But in a year when both major party candidates are incredibly unpopular,^[2] it might behoove us to consider why the system is yielding such awful candidates. I take on that question here.

Yes, I’m well aware that there haven’t been many issues of the (Almost) Daily Bullshit lately. That’s because all my sources are obsessed with the election. And this election is particularly stupid, not only because both major candidates are so awful (see above), so I’ve really been trying to limit my coverage of it. I’m hoping things return to something more normal after it’s over.

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1. ^[1]Emily Guskin and Scott Clement<, “Post-ABC Tracking Poll: Trump 46, Clinton 45, as Democratic enthusiasm dips,” Washington Post, November 1, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/01/post-abc-tracking-poll-clinton-falls-behind-trump-in-enthusiasm-but-has-edge-in-early-voting/↩
2. ^[2]Dan Balz and Scott Clement, “Poll: Election 2016 shapes up as a contest of negatives,” Washington Post, May 21, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-election-2016-shapes-up-as-a-contest-of-negatives/2016/05/21/8d4ccfd6-1ed3-11e6-b6e0-c53b7ef63b45_story.html; Michael Barbaro, “Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump Are Winning Votes, but Not Hearts,” New York Times, March 15, 2016, http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/16/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump.html; Justin Carissimo, “Too many people would rather see a giant meteor strike Earth than Clinton or Trump as president,” Independent, July 3, 2016, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/too-many-people-would-rather-see-a-giant-meteor-strike-earth-than-clinton-or-trump-as-president-a7116691.html; Michael Brendan Dougherty, “The existential despair of Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump,” Week, June 9, 2016, http://theweek.com/articles/628850/existential-despair-hillary-clinton-vs-donald-trump; Nick Gass, “Hillary Clinton’s favorability numbers have gone under water,” Politico, September 2, 2015, http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/poll-hillary-clinton-2016-favorability-213251; Janet Hook, “Both Parties’ Presidential Front-Runners Increasingly Unpopular,” Wall Street Journal, April 17, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/both-parties-presidential-front-runners-increasingly-unpopular-1460898001; Patrick O’Connor, “Voters Not Happy With Presidential Choices — WSJ/NBC News Poll,” Wall Street Journal, October 21, 2015, http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/10/21/wsjnbc-news-poll-reveals-an-uninspired-electorate/; Patrick O’Connor, “Poll Finds Lack of Enthusiasm for Clinton and Trump,” Wall Street Journal, May 23, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/poll-finds-lack-of-enthusiasm-for-clinton-and-trump-1464037289; Emily Schultheis, “Poll: More than half of voters wouldn’t back Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Hillary Clinton,” CBS News, April 18, 2016, http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-more-than-half-of-voters-wouldnt-back-donald-trump-ted-cruz-hillary-clinton/; Gerald F. Seib, “Voters Harbor Differing Concerns About Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump,” Wall Street Journal, May 2, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/voters-harbor-differing-concerns-about-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-1462206229; Seth Stevenson, “Vote Trump, Vote Hillary, Stay Home, Pray,” Slate, March 2, 2016, http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/03/republicans_against_trump_on_what_they_ll_do_if_he_s_the_nominee.html; Byron Tau, “More Americans Consider Third-Party Options,” Wall Street Journal, May 24, 2016, http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/05/24/more-americans-consider-third-party-options/; Matthew Yglesias, “Hillary Clinton will be the most-disliked nominee ever — except for Donald Trump,” Vox, May 2, 2016, http://www.vox.com/2016/5/2/11565194/clinton-trump-unfavorable↩

It was too late when I got back home to finish this installment prior to midnight on October 27. And again on October 28.

Updated to add stories I forgot to add on Gambia’s withdrawal from the International Criminal Court. Updated again for a Seattle Times account of the actions taken against the Dakota Access Pipeline protesters. Updated yet again for the re-opening of the Federal Bureau of Investigation investigation into Hillary Clinton’s email server and for articles on the Bundy jury verdict.

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Bundys

I imagine this outcome^[1] will be incomprehensible to many of my left-leaning friends.^[2]

“This is off-the-charts unbelievable,” said Matthew Schindler, an attorney for defendant Kenneth Medenbach. “I had been telling my client you can count on being convicted. You don’t walk into a federal court and win a case like this. It just doesn’t happen.”^[3]

It appears the jury took very seriously—I think perhaps too seriously and unrealistically seriously—a need to demonstrate ‘intent’ to impede federal workers—the Bundys and their cohorts arguably ‘intended’ only to protest the convictions of two ranchers and what they allege is federal overreach—and felt that the prosecution had failed to establish that case.^[4] This explanation, in my mind, fails to account for the acquittals in the remaining charges.

I do not know what repercussions may fall upon the prosecutor who failed in this case. I would not want to be that person.

Associated Press, “Leaders of Oregon standoff acquitted of federal charges,” Politico, October 27, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/oregon-standoff-leaders-acquitted-230421

Maxine Bernstein, “How the jury reached its verdicts in the Oregon standoff case,” Oregonian, October 27, 2016, http://www.oregonlive.com/oregon-standoff/2016/10/how_the_jury_reached_its_verdi.html

Hal Bernton, “Jury acquits leaders of Malheur wildlife-refuge standoff,” Seattle Times, October 27, 2016, http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/crime/verdict-near-in-malheur-wildlife-refuge-standoff-trial/

Maxine Bernstein, “Oregon standoff prosecutors failed to prove ‘intent’ to impede federal workers,” Oregonian, October 28, 2016, http://www.oregonlive.com/oregon-standoff/2016/10/juror_4_prosecutors_in_oregon.html

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Dakota Access Pipeline

Tragically, but unsurprisingly, capitalist destroyers of the environment prevail.^[5]

Associated Press, “Local sheriff’s office getting impatient with Dakota Access protesters,” Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, October 27, 2016, http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/dakota-access-protesters-refuse-request-1.3823568

Associated Press, “Police evict protesters from North Dakota pipeline site,” Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, October 27, 2016, http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/dakota-access-protesters-police-1.3824285

Indian Country Today, “Large Police Action Underway at DAPL Site,” October 27, 2016, http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com//2016/10/27/large-police-action-underway-dapl-site-166234

Lynda V. Mapes, “Pepper spray, chaos as N.D. pipeline protesters cleared from private land,” Seattle Times, October 27, 2016, Pepper spray, chaos as N.D. pipeline protesters cleared from private land

Mark Trahant, “How Far Will North Dakota Go? The Illogical Conclusion Is Too Terrible to Think About,” Indian Country Today, October 27, 2016, http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com//2016/10/27/how-far-willth-dakota-go-illogical-conclusion-too-terrible-think-about-166218

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International Criminal Court

Foreign Policy, “Is the International Criminal Court Crumbling Before Our Eyes?” Yahoo! October 26, 2016, https://www.yahoo.com/news/international-criminal-court-crumbling-eyes-171401178.html

Voice of America, “Gambia Latest African Country to Withdraw From International Criminal Court,” October 26, 2016, http://www.voanews.com/a/gambia-latest-african-country-to-withdraw-from-icc/3566570.html

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Hillary Clinton

The emails that appear to have prompted the Federal Bureau of Investigation to re-open its investigation^[6] appear unrelated to the 33,000 that aren’t actually lost after all, but the FBI declined to retrieve.^[7] Jonathan Turley has now repeatedly expressed doubts about the FBI investigation.^[8]

I have been critical recently of the handling of the FBI investigation, particularly in the granting of immunity to key potential targets. I recently wrote a column on FBI investigation into the Clinton email scandal and revised my view as to the handling of the investigation in light of the five immunity deals handed out by the Justice Department.  I had previously noted that FBI Director James Comey was within accepted lines of prosecutorial discretion in declining criminal charges, even though I believed that such charges could have been brought. However, the news of the immunity deals (and particularly the deal given top ranking Clinton aide Cheryl Mills) was baffling and those deals seriously undermined the ability to bring criminal charges in my view.^[9]

Turley stops short of saying what I will: The FBI appears to have bent over backwards to avoid even being able to charge Clinton. Which is to say that, as far as I can tell, everyone’s worst suspicions about that investigation are now confirmed. And my guess is the whitewash will continue.

Note: Bill Blum’s column was originally published on July 5. Truthdig has republished it in light of the FBI’s decision to re-open the investigation.^[10] I doubt I picked it up before.

Cooper Allen and Kevin Johnson, “New emails under review in Clinton case emerged from Weiner investigation,” USA Today, October 28, 2016, http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/28/fbi-director-clinton-emails-investigation/92889594/

Bill Blum, “In a Rigged System, Hillary Clinton Is Too Big to Indict,” Truthdig, October 28, 2016, http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/is_hillary_clinton_too_big_to_indict_20160705

Nomi Prins, “Waking Up in Hillary Clinton’s America,” Truthdig, October 28, 2016, http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/waking_up_in_hillary_clintons_america_20161028/

Jonathan Turley, “Comey Sends Letter To Congress Citing New Evidence (and An Investigation) In The Clinton Email Scandal,” October 28, 2016, https://jonathanturley.org/2016/10/28/comey-sends-letter-to-congress-citing-new-evidence-and-an-investigation-in-the-clinton-email-scandal/

Harper Neidig, “Justice Dept. warned FBI against letter on Clinton emails,” Hill, October 29, 2016, http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303440-justice-department-warned-against-comey-letter

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1. ^[1]Associated Press, “Leaders of Oregon standoff acquitted of federal charges,” Politico, October 27, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/oregon-standoff-leaders-acquitted-230421↩
2. ^[2]Hal Bernton, “Jury acquits leaders of Malheur wildlife-refuge standoff,” Seattle Times, October 27, 2016, http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/crime/verdict-near-in-malheur-wildlife-refuge-standoff-trial/↩
3. ^[3]Hal Bernton, “Jury acquits leaders of Malheur wildlife-refuge standoff,” Seattle Times, October 27, 2016, http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/crime/verdict-near-in-malheur-wildlife-refuge-standoff-trial/↩
4. ^[4]Maxine Bernstein, “Oregon standoff prosecutors failed to prove ‘intent’ to impede federal workers,” Oregonian, October 28, 2016, http://www.oregonlive.com/oregon-standoff/2016/10/juror_4_prosecutors_in_oregon.html↩
5. ^[5]Associated Press, “Police evict protesters from North Dakota pipeline site,” Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, October 27, 2016, http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/dakota-access-protesters-police-1.3824285↩
6. ^[6]Cooper Allen and Kevin Johnson, “New emails under review in Clinton case emerged from Weiner investigation,” USA Today, October 28, 2016, http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/28/fbi-director-clinton-emails-investigation/92889594/↩
7. ^[7]Next Web, “Hillary Clinton email saga continues as 33,000 erased emails may not be ‘missing’ after all,” October 26, 2016, http://thenextweb.com/politics/2016/10/26/hillary-clinton-email-saga-continues/↩
8. ^[8]Jonathan Turley, “Clinton confidant’s immunity deal looms over debate,” USA Today, September 26, 2016, http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/09/26/hillary-clinton-emails-mills-server-immunity-jonathan-turley/91092182/; Jonathan Turley, “House Committee: FBI Cut Side Deal To Limit Search Of Computers Of Key Clinton Aides And To Allow The Computers To Be Destroyed,” October 4, 2016, https://jonathanturley.org/2016/10/04/house-committee-fbi-cut-side-deal-to-limit-search-of-computers-of-key-clinton-aides-and-to-allow-the-computers-to-be-destroyed/; Jonathan Turley, “Comey Sends Letter To Congress Citing New Evidence (and An Investigation) In The Clinton Email Scandal,” October 28, 2016, https://jonathanturley.org/2016/10/28/comey-sends-letter-to-congress-citing-new-evidence-and-an-investigation-in-the-clinton-email-scandal/↩
9. ^[9]Jonathan Turley, “Comey Sends Letter To Congress Citing New Evidence (and An Investigation) In The Clinton Email Scandal,” October 28, 2016, https://jonathanturley.org/2016/10/28/comey-sends-letter-to-congress-citing-new-evidence-and-an-investigation-in-the-clinton-email-scandal/↩
10. ^[10]Bill Blum, “In a Rigged System, Hillary Clinton Is Too Big to Indict,” Truthdig, October 28, 2016, http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/is_hillary_clinton_too_big_to_indict_20160705↩

Supreme Court

Ironically, Justice Clarence Thomas has been quoted saying, “We have decided that rather than confront disagreements, we’ll just simply annihilate the person who disagrees with me. I don’t think that’s going to work in a republic, in a civil society.”^[1] And he’s right about that. But as a country, we really are at a point where no matter who wins the presidency, the loser will feel tyrannized. Which is to say that, as a country, we have reached a point of irreconcilable differences. Which is to say that, as a country, it’s time for a divorce. I still don’t know how to divvy up the territory, this would add yet another (at least one other) national border, and in general I oppose borders because of human rights concerns, but what the dubious furor over Donald Trump’s claims of election-rigging (figure 1) really points to is a delegitimization of the national government as, no matter who wins the presidency, many people will feel that s/he isn’t their president.

Burgess Everett, “Cruz: GOP may block Supreme Court nominees indefinitely,” Politico, October 26, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/cruz-supreme-court-blockade-230363

1. ^[1]Clarence Thomas, quoted in Burgess Everett, “Cruz: GOP may block Supreme Court nominees indefinitely,” Politico, October 26, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/cruz-supreme-court-blockade-230363↩

International Criminal Court

It’s easy for South Africa to argue that the International Criminal Court (ICC) is neocolonialist: With backing from Europe and even, although not a participant itself, the United States, and with an apparent focus on Africa, the Court very much seems to be a tool of imperialist hypocrisy. But then there are the counterarguments: Such as Sudan with regard to Darfur and Burundi and that what South Africa really seems to be balking at was a warrant for the arrest of Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir.^[1]

Mealy-mouthed nonsense about “promoting peace, stability and dialogue in those countries”^[2] feels pretty thin when the genocide in Darfur has been going on for as long as it has.^[3] Then there’s the situation in Burundi which looks a lot more like yet another leader violently refusing to relinquish power than any high-minded stance against colonialism.^[4] This just ain’t the way to make the argument South Africa is making.

Integrated Regional Information Networks, “Burundi walks away from the ICC,” October 19, 2016, https://www.irinnews.org/news/2016/10/19/burundi-walks-away-icc

Al Jazeera, “South Africa to quit International Criminal Court,” October 21, 2016, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/south-africa-formally-applies-quit-icc-media-161021044116029.html

Joe Brock, “South Africa to quit troubled UN war crimes court,” Reuters, October 21, 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-safrica-icc-idUSKCN12L025

Gabriele Steinhauser, “South Africa to Withdraw From International Criminal Court,” Wall Street Journal, October 21, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/south-africa-to-withdraw-from-international-criminal-court-1477038370

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Economics and suicide

Jefferson Cowie, “The Great White Nope: Poor, Working Class, and Left Behind in America,” review of White Trash: The 400-Year Untold History of Class in America, by Nancy Isenberg, Foreign Affairs, November/December, 2016, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/review-essay/2016-10-17/great-white-nope

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1. ^[1]Al Jazeera, “South Africa to quit International Criminal Court,” October 21, 2016, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/south-africa-formally-applies-quit-icc-media-161021044116029.html; Joe Brock, “South Africa to quit troubled UN war crimes court,” Reuters, October 21, 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-safrica-icc-idUSKCN12L025; Gabriele Steinhauser, “South Africa to Withdraw From International Criminal Court,” Wall Street Journal, October 21, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/south-africa-to-withdraw-from-international-criminal-court-1477038370↩
2. ^[2]Michael Masutha, quoted in Gabriele Steinhauser, “South Africa to Withdraw From International Criminal Court,” Wall Street Journal, October 21, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/south-africa-to-withdraw-from-international-criminal-court-1477038370↩
3. ^[3]Don Cheadle and John Prendergast, Not on Our Watch: The Mission to End Genocide in Darfur and Beyond (New York: Hyperion, 2007).↩
4. ^[4]Integrated Regional Information Networks, “Burundi walks away from the ICC,” October 19, 2016, https://www.irinnews.org/news/2016/10/19/burundi-walks-away-icc↩

Brexit

Lisa O’Carroll and Stephen Collins, “Irish leaders fear Brexit will bring economic disaster,” Guardian, October 16, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/16/irish-pm-calls-brexit-summit-to-confront-looming-crisis

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Sexual predators

Conspicuous by his absence from Sarah Kliff’s article: Bill Clinton.

Sarah Kliff, “Trump, Cosby, Ailes: It took celebrity accusers to make us listen to sexual assault victims,” Vox, October 18, 2016, http://www.vox.com/identities/2016/10/18/13306300/trump-cosby-ailes-sexual-harrasment

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Supreme Court

By implication, John McCain seems to be promising four (at least) more years of obstruction if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency. John Patty suspects that McCain is saying this only because he’s running for re-election^[1] and that might be so—in McCain’s case—but I very much doubt that just because Donald Trump has become an embarrassment for much of the Republican Party, that they’ll all sing Kumbaya because Clinton gets elected.

John Patty, “John McCain wants to block all of Hillary Clinton’s Supreme Court nominees,” Vox, October 18, 2016, http://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2016/10/18/13314336/mccain-block-clintoninees

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1. ^[1]John Patty, “John McCain wants to block all of Hillary Clinton’s Supreme Court nominees,” Vox, October 18, 2016, http://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2016/10/18/13314336/mccain-block-clintoninees↩