Pennsylvania
2022 election
Fig. 1. There’s much too much of this kind of thing to be seen around Pittsburgh. Photograph taken by author through his windshield, May 17, 2022, just outside Braddock, Pennsylvania.
In a campaign for a U.S. Senate seat that has brought out the worst in John Fetterman, I was bracing for the worst in a debate between Fetterman and Mehmet Oz.
That’s not to say I watched it. I don’t really care what they have to say because I already know their positions well enough. Having made my choice, it’s now all about the horse race for me. I’m more interested in how it plays.
I think there is a difference between how educated, even if still ignorant columnists at the relatively liberal Philadelphia Inquirer will interpret Fetterman’s performance[1] and how often-conservative, often-uneducated, often-anti-intellectual voters will interpret the performance. And as I read the comments on Twitter about the performance, it’s clear to me that Fetterman most certainly did not seal the deal. Some even refer to Fetterman’s performance as “cringeworthy.”
WILL IT MATTER? — Voters are not doctors. Many are myopic, distracted, and quick to make judgments with limited information. If there’s one thing everyone knows about campaign debates, it’s how superficial they are. We all remember RICHARD NIXON’s suspicious stubble and GEORGE H.W. BUSH’s impatient glance at his watch and AL GORE’s annoying sighs and DONALD TRUMP’s manic interruptions more than anything any of them said.
The median voter in Pennsylvania is a middle-aged white person with a mid-five-figure salary who did not attend college. That demographic is perhaps the least likely to be following the Fetterman ableism debate on Twitter and MSNBC.[2]
The same goes for Oz. Philadelphia Inquirer columnists criticize Oz for being a “snake oil salesman”[3] (which he actually is[4]), for being too slick.[5] I’ll take for granted that this is true. But remember that with the COVID-19 pandemic, many—far too many—Pennsylvania voters resisted Tom Wolf’s state of emergency and trimmed his powers,[6] resisted masks, continue to resist vaccines. I heard folks in my back seat advocate ivermectin. A lot of Pennsylvania voters are all about snake oil, by the barrel.
It’s obvious that Rep. DAN CRENSHAW is sightless in one eye or that Sen. TAMMY DUCKWORTH lost her legs. Nobody questions whether those injuries have an impact on their ability to serve in Congress.
But [John] Fetterman’s disability is different. It prevents him from performing adequately in a candidate ritual — the campaign debate — that has long been associated, correctly or not, with electability and effectiveness in Congress. The plain fact is that Fetterman was not capable of debating Oz. He could have skipped the debate, as some Democrats suggested he should have after it was over, but the Fetterman campaign gambled that the media would educate voters about his auditory issues and then referee any attacks on him with charges of ableism.
THE TRANSPARENCY ISSUE — But reporters are not doctors either. And Fetterman again declined Monday night to release comprehensive medical records about his condition. Instead he has gone the Trumpian route and issued a letter from his doctor, who has not made himself available to reporters.[7]
I think I agree that Fetterman would have been better off if he could have declined the debate. The problem here is that he’s already on the defensive, as Democrats already are generally, facing a midterm election where typically they would face a wipeout (though there are wildcards in this cycle[8]), having suffered a stroke and sounding inarticulate as a result, and with the economy and crime (for example, in Pittsburgh, see below) counting (unfairly) as strikes against Democrats. I don’t think he had that choice.
There are two well-worn cliches about debates: (1) They are rarely won but can sometimes be lost. (2) They are decided by the coverage in subsequent days rather than on debate night itself.
[John] Fetterman clearly lost last night. ”[T]he biggest issue was John Fetterman’s health and his ability to comprehend speech, and to then speak coherently on the issues of the day,” said LELAND VITTERT of NewsNation, which sponsored the debate, in what was typical of the immediate coverage.
But the Fetterman campaign is betting that Oz will lose the all-important post-debate conversation. Fetterman has a potent weapon: Oz’s statement that abortion should be left up to “women, doctors, local political leaders.”
The Fetterman campaign immediately seized on the line, promising it “will be putting money behind making sure as many women as possible hear Dr. Oz’s radical belief that ‘local political leaders’ should have as much say over a woman’s abortion decisons as women themselves and their doctors.” More than $1 million poured in from online donors in the hours after the debate, the campaign announced.[9]
Aaron Blake, “4 takeaways from the Fetterman-Oz debate,” Washington Post, October 25, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/25/fetterman-oz-debate-pennsylvania-senate-race/
Philadelphia Inquirer, “Who won the debate? Our Opinion staff weighs in,” October 25, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/inq2/john-fetterman-dr-mehmet-oz-debate-winner-20221025.html
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Mehmet Oz, John Fetterman debate in confrontation heavier on attacks than substantive policy,” October 25, 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/election2022/2022/10/25/fetterman-oz-debate-pa-senate-race-candidates-midterms/stories/202210250124
Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels to Playbook Daily Briefing list, “How much will John Fetterman’s rocky night matter?” Politico, October 26, 2022, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/10/26/how-much-will-john-fettermans-rocky-night-matter-00063500
Pittsburgh
Unauthorized violence
Fig. 1. “A woman reacts at a makeshift memorial outside the Tree of Life synagogue following Saturday’s shooting at the synagogue in Pittsburgh, Oct. 29, 2018,” photograph by Cathal McNaughton for Reuters, via ABC News, October 29, 2018,[10] fair use.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “3 wounded in shootings on South Side, Arlington,” October 24, 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/crime-courts/2022/10/23/pittsburgh-shooting-south-side-gas-station/stories/202210230184
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Police: Man shot and killed in vehicle in Wilkinsburg,” October 24, 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/crime-courts/2022/10/24/wilkinsburg-shooting-police-allegheny-county/stories/202210240052
Megan Guza, “Shots fired in Downtown hit charter school; no one injured,” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, October 25, 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/crime-courts/2022/10/25/downtown-pittsburgh-shooting-near-passport-academy-charter-school-shots-hits-building/stories/202210250127
- [1]Philadelphia Inquirer, “Who won the debate? Our Opinion staff weighs in,” October 25, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/inq2/john-fetterman-dr-mehmet-oz-debate-winner-20221025.html↩
- [2]Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels to Playbook Daily Briefing list, “How much will John Fetterman’s rocky night matter?” Politico, October 26, 2022, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/10/26/how-much-will-john-fettermans-rocky-night-matter-00063500↩
- [3]Philadelphia Inquirer, “Who won the debate? Our Opinion staff weighs in,” October 25, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/inq2/john-fetterman-dr-mehmet-oz-debate-winner-20221025.html↩
- [4]Trip Gabriel, “Dr. Oz Says He’s Running for Senate in Pennsylvania,” New York Times, November 30, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/30/us/politics/dr-oz-senate-run-pennsylvania.html; Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Mehmet Oz, John Fetterman debate in confrontation heavier on attacks than substantive policy,” October 25, 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/election2022/2022/10/25/fetterman-oz-debate-pa-senate-race-candidates-midterms/stories/202210250124↩
- [5]Philadelphia Inquirer, “Who won the debate? Our Opinion staff weighs in,” October 25, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/inq2/john-fetterman-dr-mehmet-oz-debate-winner-20221025.html↩
- [6]Ballotpedia News, “The State and Local Tap: Pennsylvania voters pass constitutional amendments to limit governor’s emergency orders,” May 22, 2021, https://news.ballotpedia.org/2021/05/22/the-state-and-local-tap-pennsylvania-voters-pass-constitutional-amendments-to-limit-governors-emergency-orders/; Sarah Anne Hughes, “Voters back curtailing Wolf’s emergency powers in win for GOP lawmakers,” Spotlight PA, May 19, 2021, https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2021/05/pa-primary-2021-ballot-question-disaster-declaration-results/↩
- [7]Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels to Playbook Daily Briefing list, “How much will John Fetterman’s rocky night matter?” Politico, October 26, 2022, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/10/26/how-much-will-john-fettermans-rocky-night-matter-00063500↩
- [8]David Benfell, “The really, really, really wild wildcards in the 2022 and 2024 elections,” Not Housebroken, August 17, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/08/17/the-really-really-really-wild-wildcards-in-the-2022-and-2024-elections/↩
- [9]Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels to Playbook Daily Briefing list, “How much will John Fetterman’s rocky night matter?” Politico, October 26, 2022, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/10/26/how-much-will-john-fettermans-rocky-night-matter-00063500↩
- [10]Bill Hutchinson et al., “Pittsburgh synagogue-shooting suspect wheeled into courtroom; Trump to visit city Tuesday,” ABC News, October 29, 2019, https://abcnews.go.com/US/pittsburgh-synagogue-shooting-suspect-discharged-hospital-set-make/story?id=58825389↩