Gilead
Donald Trump
Coup attempt
Fig. 2. Original: The White House. Derivative work: J. J. Messerly, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
As far as these [Republican Party] insiders are concerned, [Donald] Trump has now overseen three cycles of soul-crushing G.O.P. defeats. There was the 2018 “blue wave,” which saw the Republicans lose the House; the 2020 race, which saw Republicans lose both the White House and the Senate (not to mention the disaster of the Georgia runoffs); and the most recent midterms, in which Republicans dramatically underperformed the fundamentals of a slowing economy and unpopular president, leaving Kevin McCarthy’s potential Speakership suddenly in doubt. Indeed, even some of Trump’s most loyal supporters are scrutinizing his results card, including two presidential races in which he failed to win the popular vote, and wondering if he’s less an asset than a liability. “It’s proven that he’s a great motivator for a segment of the base,” the conservative activist noted. “But in the end, there’s another segment, which is suburban voters and independents. Not only does he turn them off, but he almost galvanizes them to come out and vote against him.”[1]
This shouldn’t be a surprise after the midterms, but a lot of Republicans seem to be seeing Donald Trump and his “stolen election” nonsense as a loser and Tina Nguyen is far from the first to say it.[2] Barely mentioned here is that there were—and remain—two wildcards, namely abortion rights and Trump’s legal woes, the latter especially over revelations following the Mar-a-Lago search,[3] in which, by the way, an appeals court has now overturned Aileen Cannon’s order appointing a special master to review the documents seized and ordered her to dismiss the case.[4]
It was following that search that Trump’s support in southwestern Pennsylvania became dramatically less visible.[5] And given those election results,[6] it’s now awfully hard to see Pennsylvania as an outlier.
But Trump really doesn’t seem to be bouncing back this time.
It’s been about two weeks since Donald Trump announced that he was running for president, and about half that time has been consumed by an utterly preventable, and predictable, scandal: Trump dining with Kanye West, now an avowed anti-Semite, and Nick Fuentes, a notorious white supremacist, at Mar-a-Lago. The Trumpworld spin room, of course, has repeatedly emphasized that Fuentes—the far-right pundit-leader of the so-called Groyper Army, who has frequently called for the expulsion of Jews and minorities from “white America”—was merely an unexpected interloper in Trump’s pre-Thanksgiving meal with West. But G.O.P. insiders that I spoke to were apoplectic that Trump spent these early innings of his campaign breaking bread with West in the first place. “Why? Why are we doing this? Why are we having dinner with Kanye?” a party strategist fumed. “What’s the perceived advantage there if you’re running for president?”
The Trump ’24 campaign, after all, was hardly off to a rollicking start even before Ye and his entourage rolled into Mar-a-Lago. First there was Trump’s deflating campaign announcement—a long-winded diatribe that prompted multiple audience members to attempt a mid-speech Irish exit—only a few days after a dismal midterm outcome. Trump had already been blamed by many in the G.O.P. for putting his thumb on the scale for a half-dozen oddball or extremist gubernatorial and midterm candidates, including Dr. Oz and Herschel Walker, among others, who likely cost Republicans the Senate. In the days and weeks afterward, Trump spent the bulk of his time holed up in Mar-a-Lago, shit-posting about stolen elections and imagined enemies, his own mounting legal headaches, and the gall of would-be primary challengers.[7]
Pennsylvanians especially might notice that Trump seems to be traveling down a similar road as losing gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano, campaigning only for his base, and then only at the social conservative and paleoconservative ends of that spectrum.[8]
Nguyen repeats a warning that lots of folks (yours truly most definitely included) have underestimated Trump before,[9] but I think what she and I are both sensing is that this time really is different, that there is a skepticism about Trump we’ve not seen before, and that he really is through. Cross your fingers.
Spencer S. Hsu, Tom Jackman, and Rachel Weiner, “Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes guilty of Jan. 6 seditious conspiracy,” Washington Post, November 29, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/11/29/rhodes-oathkeepers-sedition-verdict-jan6/
Tina Nguyen, “Has Trump Already Lost ’24?” Puck News, November 30, 2022, https://puck.news/has-trump-already-lost-24/
Tierney Sneed, “Appeals court halts special master review of documents seized at Mar-a-Lago in major defeat for Trump,” CNN, December 1, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/01/politics/mar-a-lago-special-master/index.html
Fig. 1. “Elon Musk shared a video of his entrance on his Twitter account.” Photograph attributed to Elon Musk, October 26, 2022, via the New York Post,[10] fair use.
Reuters, “Twitter CEO Musk says user signups at all-time high, touts features of ‘everything app,’” November 27, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/technology/twitter-ceo-musk-says-user-signups-all-time-high-touts-features-everything-app-2022-11-27/
Philip Bump, “Hey, Elon Musk? Twitter polls are not the ‘voice of the people,’” Washington Post, November 28, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/28/hey-elon-musk-twitter-polls-are-not-voice-people/
It’s apparently pro free speech when Elon Musk charges you $8 for access to his platform, but anti free speech if Apple charges him $2 for access to theirs. #Logic
— David Frum (@davidfrum) November 28, 2022
David Frum, “It’s apparently pro free speech when Elon Musk charges you $8 for access to his platform, but anti free speech if Apple charges him $2 for access to theirs,” Twitter, November 28, 2022, https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1597332772687085569
Sarah E. Needleman and Tim Higgins, “Elon Musk Claims Apple Is Threatening to Remove Twitter From App Store,” Wall Street Journal, November 28, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-attacks-apple-tim-cook-over-advertising-and-censorship-11669662024
Sheila Dang and Katie Paul, “Twitter not safer under Elon Musk, says former head of trust and safety,” Reuters, November 29, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/technology/twitter-not-safer-under-elon-musk-says-former-head-trust-safety-conference-2022-11-29/
Robert Mackey and Micah Lee, “Left-Wing Voices Are Silenced on Twitter as Far-Right Trolls Advise Elon Musk,” Intercept, November 29, 2022, https://theintercept.com/2022/11/29/elon-musk-twitter-andy-ngo-antifascist/
Reuters, “Twitter rolls back COVID misinformation policy,” November 29, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/technology/twitter-rolls-back-covid-misinformation-policy-2022-11-29/
Naomi Nix, “Twitter needs Apple more than Apple needs Twitter,” Washington Post, November 30, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/11/30/apple-musk-tim-cook/
Patience Haggin, “Twitter Offers Advertisers Generous Incentives After Many Marketers Left Platform,” Wall Street Journal, December 1, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/twitter-offers-advertisers-generous-incentives-after-many-marketers-left-platform-11669922354
- [1]Tina Nguyen, “Has Trump Already Lost ’24?” Puck News, November 30, 2022, https://puck.news/has-trump-already-lost-24/↩
- [2]Natalie Andrews, Siobhan Hughes, and Lindsay Wise, “Frustrated Republicans Try to Explain Lack of Midterm ‘Red Wave,’” Wall Street Journal, November 9, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/frustrated-republicans-try-to-explain-lack-of-midterm-red-wave-11668036382; Isaac Arnsdorf and Josh Dawsey, “One likely 2024 GOP contender triumphed on election night. It wasn’t Donald Trump,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/desantis-trump-2024-presidential-election/; Dan Balz, “The vaunted red wave never hit the shore in midterm elections,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/08/midterms-dissatisfied-voters-render-judgments-biden-republicans/; Jonathan Freedland, “The winner of the midterms is not yet clear – but the loser is Donald Trump,” Guardian, November 9, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/09/the-winner-of-the-midterms-is-not-yet-clear-but-the-loser-is-donald-trump; Amy Gardner, Reis Thebault, and Robert Klemko, “Election deniers lose races for key state offices in every 2020 battleground,” Washington Post, November 13, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2022/11/13/election-deniers-defeated-state-races/; Liz Goodwin, “A red wave of criticism crashes into Donald Trump after midterm losses,” Washington Post, November 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/11/trump-criticism-midterms-republicans/; David Lauter, “The midterm’s big loser: Trump suffers multiple defeats,” Los Angeles Times, November 9, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/politics/newsletter/2022-11-09/the-midterms-big-loser-trump-suffers-multiple-defeats-essential-politics; Tina Nguyen, “Has Trump Already Lost ’24?” Puck News, November 30, 2022, https://puck.news/has-trump-already-lost-24/; Greg Sargent, “Republicans want Trump to take the blame. Good luck with that,” Washington Post, November 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/11/trump-midterm-elections-gop-abortion-rights-2024/; Marianna Sotomayor et al., “Congressional Republicans panic as they watch their lead dwindle,” Washington Post, November 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/11/senate-republicans-mcconnell-midterms/; Brian Slodysko, “Election takeaways: No sweep for the Republicans after all,” Associated Press, November 9, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-takeaways-9381d3aaff26d19da95506e045fcd6e1; Jonathan Tamari and William Bender, “‘It’s time for him to retire’: Some Pa. Republicans want to push Trump aside after their election losses,” Philadelphia Inquirer, November 10, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/pa-republicans-blame-trump-2022-losses-20221110.html; Chris Walker, “Trump Is Blaming Everyone But Himself for Midterm Losses — Including His Wife,” Truthout, November 10, 2022, https://truthout.org/articles/trump-is-blaming-everyone-but-himself-for-midterm-losses-including-his-wife/↩
- [3]David Benfell, “The really, really, really wild wildcards in the 2022 and 2024 elections,” Not Housebroken, November 10, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/08/17/the-really-really-really-wild-wildcards-in-the-2022-and-2024-elections/↩
- [4]Tierney Sneed, “Appeals court halts special master review of documents seized at Mar-a-Lago in major defeat for Trump,” CNN, December 1, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/01/politics/mar-a-lago-special-master/index.html↩
- [5]David Benfell, “More questions than answers as Donald Trump flags come down,” Not Housebroken, November 12, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/08/28/more-questions-than-answers-as-donald-trump-flags-come-down/↩
- [6]Natalie Andrews, Siobhan Hughes, and Lindsay Wise, “Frustrated Republicans Try to Explain Lack of Midterm ‘Red Wave,’” Wall Street Journal, November 9, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/frustrated-republicans-try-to-explain-lack-of-midterm-red-wave-11668036382; Isaac Arnsdorf and Josh Dawsey, “One likely 2024 GOP contender triumphed on election night. It wasn’t Donald Trump,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/09/desantis-trump-2024-presidential-election/; Dan Balz, “The vaunted red wave never hit the shore in midterm elections,” Washington Post, November 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/08/midterms-dissatisfied-voters-render-judgments-biden-republicans/; Jonathan Freedland, “The winner of the midterms is not yet clear – but the loser is Donald Trump,” Guardian, November 9, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/09/the-winner-of-the-midterms-is-not-yet-clear-but-the-loser-is-donald-trump; Amy Gardner, Reis Thebault, and Robert Klemko, “Election deniers lose races for key state offices in every 2020 battleground,” Washington Post, November 13, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2022/11/13/election-deniers-defeated-state-races/; Liz Goodwin, “A red wave of criticism crashes into Donald Trump after midterm losses,” Washington Post, November 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/11/trump-criticism-midterms-republicans/; David Lauter, “The midterm’s big loser: Trump suffers multiple defeats,” Los Angeles Times, November 9, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/politics/newsletter/2022-11-09/the-midterms-big-loser-trump-suffers-multiple-defeats-essential-politics; Tina Nguyen, “Has Trump Already Lost ’24?” Puck News, November 30, 2022, https://puck.news/has-trump-already-lost-24/; Greg Sargent, “Republicans want Trump to take the blame. Good luck with that,” Washington Post, November 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/11/trump-midterm-elections-gop-abortion-rights-2024/; Marianna Sotomayor et al., “Congressional Republicans panic as they watch their lead dwindle,” Washington Post, November 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/11/senate-republicans-mcconnell-midterms/; Brian Slodysko, “Election takeaways: No sweep for the Republicans after all,” Associated Press, November 9, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-takeaways-9381d3aaff26d19da95506e045fcd6e1; Jonathan Tamari and William Bender, “‘It’s time for him to retire’: Some Pa. Republicans want to push Trump aside after their election losses,” Philadelphia Inquirer, November 10, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/pa-republicans-blame-trump-2022-losses-20221110.html; Chris Walker, “Trump Is Blaming Everyone But Himself for Midterm Losses — Including His Wife,” Truthout, November 10, 2022, https://truthout.org/articles/trump-is-blaming-everyone-but-himself-for-midterm-losses-including-his-wife/↩
- [7]Tina Nguyen, “Has Trump Already Lost ’24?” Puck News, November 30, 2022, https://puck.news/has-trump-already-lost-24/↩
- [8]William Bender, “Doug Mastriano’s comments on Islam and climate change resurface, the latest hit for his campaign,” Philadelphia Inquirer, August 19, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/doug-mastriano-islam-global-warming-2018-governor-pennsylvania-20220819.html; William Bender, “In a rare rebuke, two retired War College professors say Doug Mastriano is unfit to be governor,” Philadelphia Inquirer, October 16, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/news/doug-mastriano-war-college-biddle-coplen-alvin-york-20221016.html; William Bender and Jonathan Tamari, “As campaign struggles, Doug Mastriano plans ‘40 days of fasting and prayer,’” Philadelphia Inquirer, September 28, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/news/doug-mastriano-fasting-prayer-campaign-rally-struggling-20220928.html; Chris Brennan, “‘Mastriano is unacceptable’: A group of Pennsylvania Republicans is organizing to support Shapiro,” Philadelphia Inquirer, July 6, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/josh-shapiro-doug-mastriano-governor-republicans-endorsements-20220706.html; Chris Brennan, “Doug Mastriano wore a Confederate Army uniform in an Army War College faculty photo,” Philadelphia Inquirer, August 26, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/doug-mastriano-confederate-uniform-photo-army-war-college-20220826.html; Chris Brennan, “Doug Mastriano will flirt again with the QAnon crowd as another election approaches,” Philadelphia Inquirer, October 21, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/politics/clout/doug-mastriano-josh-shapiro-governor-election-mike-flynn-rudy-giuliani-20221021.html; Stephen Caruso and Ethan Edward Coston, “How Doug Mastriano built a grassroots movement in Pa. on election denial, Christianity, and Facebook,” Spotlight PA, May 23, 2022, https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2022/05/doug-mastriano-pa-governor-pennsylvania-shapiro/; Philissa Cramer, “Republican Jews call on Doug Mastriano, GOP candidate for PA governor, to stop using Gab,” Jewish Telegraphic Agency, July 22, 2022, https://www.jta.org/2022/07/22/politics/republican-jews-call-on-doug-mastriano-gop-candidate-for-pa-governor-to-stop-using-gab; Ron Kampeas, “Critics compare salutes at Trump and Mastriano rallies to Nazi ‘Sieg Heil,’” Times of Israel, September 20, 2022, https://www.timesofisrael.com/critics-compare-salutes-at-trump-mastriano-rallies-to-nazi-sieg-heil/; Dana Milbank, “And on the eighth day, God said: Let Mastriano win Pennsylvania,” Washington Post, September 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/09/doug-mastriano-prophet-julie-green/; Tina Nguyen, “Doug Mastriano’s Snowflake Strategy,” Puck News, September 14, 2022, https://puck.news/doug-mastrianos-snowflake-strategy/; Greg Sargent, “Say it clearly: Republicans just nominated a pro-Trump insurrectionist,” Washington Post, May 18, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/18/doug-mastriano-insurrectionist/; Andrew Seidman, “A top GOP candidate for governor campaigned at an event promoting QAnon and conspiracy theories about 9/11,” Philadelphia Inquirer, April 27, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/doug-mastriano-teddy-daniels-qanon-conference-gop-candidates-20220427.html↩
- [9]Tina Nguyen, “Has Trump Already Lost ’24?” Puck News, November 30, 2022, https://puck.news/has-trump-already-lost-24/↩
- [10]Thomas Barrabi, “Elon Musk barges into Twitter HQ as deal nears: ‘Let that sink in,’” New York Post, October 26, 2022, https://nypost.com/2022/10/26/elon-musk-barges-into-twitter-headquarters-as-deal-nears/↩