The possible collapse of Donald Trump

Fig. 1. Original caption: “Your Honor, in an effort to insure a fair trial, we move for a change of venue to the defendant’s imagination.” Cartoon by Teresa Burns Parkhurst, apparently February 16, 2024, via the New Yorker, fair use.

Something I’ve learned over the decades is that when things go bad, the various factors in my situation compound each other in unexpected ways, much as general systems theory might predict, to produce emergent problems. Not only do I now have the problems I started out with, I have unexpected new problems making it all worse.

It feels like society kicking me when I’m down and I thought this was a problem for the poor, like me, on a downward skid, and when I try to do things well, to do them right, it is in part a desperate attempt to avoid potentially compounding problems.

It’s possible I am wrong about this being a problem only for the poor: Donald Trump’s problems now compound each other: The money he has to put up to appeal his fraud and his defamation convictions will crimp his campaign.^[1] He’ll actually have to be present for criminal trials, constraining campaign appearances. More of his supporters may decide he really is a crook and that, yes, that matters.

Bloomberg Billionaires Index recently estimated [Donald] Trump’s net worth at $3.1 billion, with about $600 million in cash assets. The fines and penalties levied by Engoron could eat into well over half of that fortune, accumulated over many years, and could prompt the company to sell more real estate if it wants to free up cash. Last year, Forbes downgraded its estimate of the former president’s net worth to $2.5 billion, $600 million less than its previous estimate.

“The financial penalties that are being placed on Trump and the Trump Organization are likely to put serious strain on Trump’s business in a way that hasn’t happened to date,” said New York Law School adjunct professor Steven M. Cohen, a former top official in the New York attorney general’s office, citing Friday’s decision and the recent $83.3 million verdict in E. Jean Carroll’s defamation lawsuit.^[2]

If it happens, a collapse need not happen all at once. And it is possible that events may forestall that collapse. But I am watching for it now.

Lukas I. Alpert, “Trump is backed further into a financial corner after losing control of his company,” MarketWatch, February 16, 2024, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-is-backed-further-into-a-financial-corner-after-losing-control-of-his-company-85aa467e

Lloyd Green, “Trump, the ‘law-and-order’ candidate, is an adjudicated fraudster,” Guardian, February 16, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/16/donald-trump-organization-legal-woes

Jonathan O’Connell, “Hefty fines, penalties will rock Trump family’s business and fortune,” Washington Post, February 16, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/02/16/trump-verdict-civil-fraud-trial/

Finances

Fig. 2. Trump International Hotel, Las Vegas, undated image credited to https://www.flickr.com/photos/glynlowe/ [bad link], via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.

Jacob Gershman and James Fanelli, “Judge Orders Trump to Pay More Than $350 Million for Misrepresenting His Wealth,” Wall Street Journal, February 16, 2024, https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/donald-trump-new-york-civil-fraud-trial-ruling-6447c2cd

Ellie Quinlan Houghtaling, “Trump Enters Full Meltdown Mode Over $355 Million Verdict in Fraud Trial,” New Republic, February 16, 2024, https://newrepublic.com/post/179110/trump-meltdown-reaction-civil-fraud-trial-verdict

Ellie Quinlan Houghtaling, “Very Stable Genius Trump Hammered to Tune of $350 Million in Fraud Trial,” New Republic, February 16, 2024, https://newrepublic.com/post/178566/trump-verdict-bank-fraud-trial

Joy Wiltermuth, “No quick end to Trump’s real-estate business after New York fraud case ruling,” MarketWatch, February 16, 2024, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-quick-end-to-trumps-real-estate-business-after-new-york-fraud-case-ruling-7c29db55

Walker Bragman, “Analysis: The Age of Biden,” Opt-Out, February 17, 2024, https://www.optout.news/newsletters/biden-and-the-media

^[1]Lukas I. Alpert, “Trump is backed further into a financial corner after losing control of his company,” MarketWatch, February 16, 2024, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-is-backed-further-into-a-financial-corner-after-losing-control-of-his-company-85aa467e; Lloyd Green, “Trump, the ‘law-and-order’ candidate, is an adjudicated fraudster,” Guardian, February 16, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/16/donald-trump-organization-legal-woes; Jonathan O’Connell, “Hefty fines, penalties will rock Trump family’s business and fortune,” Washington Post, February 16, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/02/16/trump-verdict-civil-fraud-trial/↩
^[2]Jonathan O’Connell, “Hefty fines, penalties will rock Trump family’s business and fortune,” Washington Post, February 16, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/02/16/trump-verdict-civil-fraud-trial/↩
^[3]Ben Jennings, “Ben Jennings on Donald Trump’s progress along the Republican nomination trail – cartoon,” Guardian, January 24, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2024/jan/24/ben-jennings-on-donald-trumps-progress-along-the-republican-nomination-trail-cartoon ↩
^[4]Walker Bragman, “Analysis: The Age of Biden,” Opt-Out, February 17, 2024, https://www.optout.news/newsletters/biden-and-the-media ↩

Irregular Bullshit

The possible collapse of Donald Trump

Illiberalism

Gilead

Donald Trump

Finances

Hush money

Coup attempt

Neoliberalism

Democratic (neoliberal) Party

Joe Biden

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