Vladimir Putin’s Chef has been whining a lot lately, you know, something about ammunition. But what if Russia really doesn’t have the ammo to send him?

benfell

Imperialism

Russia

Ukraine


Fig. 2. “Destroyed Russian military vehicles located on the main street Khreshchatyk are seen as part of the celebration of the Independence Day of Ukraine in Kyiv, August 24.” Photograph by Gleb Garanich for Reuters, August 24, 2022,[1] fair use.

The distinction that’s being drawn in Patrick Tucker’s article[2] strikes me as odd.

What the U.S. intelligence services seem to be saying is that Russia’s offensive potential is severely degraded due to lack of manpower and ammunition. They aren’t saying anything about what Russia’s defensive potential (in occupied Ukrainian territory) is.[3] But I’m thinking there has to be an implication here.

It’s all rather interesting, actually, because Yevgeny Prigozhin has been whining about lack of ammunition, even threatening to abandon the siege on Bakhmut.[4] I dismissed this. I figured Vladimir Putin’s chef was serving up something steamy that you definitely don’t want to be smelling, let alone eating.

But if this reporting[5] is right, it could simply be that Prigozhin hasn’t gotten the ammunition for the Wagner Group that he has demanded[6] simply because Moscow doesn’t have the fucking ammunition to send him.

And even if crudely, what Prigozhin has been pointing out is that when you’re under attack, it even takes ammunition to hold your position. Which makes a decision to withdraw for lack of ammunition[7] seem all very sensible, even if, given his backstory,[8] it’s pretty near impossible for me to imagine that Prigozhin really gives even half a shit about the lives of his soldiers.[9]

Sentiment aside, if Prigozhin can’t hold his position because Moscow actually can’t send him the ammunition he needs, we can suspect that a still-expected Ukrainian counteroffensive might prove wildly successful as Russian forces fall back wherever challenged because they are all similarly poorly supplied. If, on the other hand, this is all just because the Kremlin doesn’t like Prigozhin,[10] then we can’t generalize from this at all.

I don’t know to what extent it’s either. But it’s just possible Putin might be about to learn about how if it doesn’t make sense, it doesn’t make sense, and it can’t last.[11] I’m not thinking we’ll have much warning before it does.

Patrick Tucker, “Without A New Draft, Russian Offensive Operations Are Over, US Intel Chiefs Say,” Defense One, May 4, 2023, https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/05/without-new-draft-russian-offensive-operations-are-over-us-intel-chiefs-say/386003/

Henry Foy et al., “Military briefing: the drone attack on the Kremlin,” Financial Times, May 5, 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/fca39a1d-d642-4799-bdee-12423149cc61

Brad Lendon, Josh Pennington, and Uliana Pavlova, “Wagner chief says his forces are dying as Russia’s military leaders ‘sit like fat cats,’” CNN, May 5, 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/05/europe/wagner-military-group-prigozhin-ammunition-tirade-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

Gilead

Donald Trump

Coup attempt


Fig. 1. “Jake Angeli (Qanon Shaman), seen holding a Qanon sign at the intersection of Bell Rd and 75th Ave in Peoria, Arizona, on 2020 October 15.” Photography by TheUnseen011101 [pseud.], October 15, 2020, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Jeremy Roebuck, “Proud Boys trial: Zach Rehl, the right-wing group’s Philly leader, and three others convicted in Jan. 6 sedition case,” Philadelphia Inquirer, May 4, 2023, https://www.inquirer.com/news/proud-boys-zach-rehl-sedition-philly-verdict-20230504.html

Amy Gardner and Holly Bailey, “At least eight Trump electors have accepted immunity in Georgia investigation,” Washington Post, May 5, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/05/05/fulton-county-georgia-trump-investigation-electors-immunity/

Illiberalism


Fig. 3. Photograph by Joachim F. Thurn, August 1991, Bundesarchiv, B 145 Bild-F089030-0003, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0 DE.

Christian Oliver, “Onions and prayer rugs: Turkey approaches its decisive battle for democracy,” Politico, May 3, 2023, https://www.politico.eu/article/onions-prayer-rugs-turkey-approache-decisive-battle-democracy-election/

  1. [1]Reuters, “Ukraine puts destroyed Russian tanks on display in Kyiv,” August 25, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/ukraine-puts-destroyed-russian-tanks-on-idUSRTSALV9Q↩
  2. [2]Patrick Tucker, “Without A New Draft, Russian Offensive Operations Are Over, US Intel Chiefs Say,” Defense One, May 4, 2023, https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/05/without-new-draft-russian-offensive-operations-are-over-us-intel-chiefs-say/386003/↩
  3. [3]Patrick Tucker, “Without A New Draft, Russian Offensive Operations Are Over, US Intel Chiefs Say,” Defense One, May 4, 2023, https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/05/without-new-draft-russian-offensive-operations-are-over-us-intel-chiefs-say/386003/↩
  4. [4]Brad Lendon, Josh Pennington, and Uliana Pavlova, “Wagner chief says his forces are dying as Russia’s military leaders ‘sit like fat cats,’” CNN, May 5, 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/05/europe/wagner-military-group-prigozhin-ammunition-tirade-intl-hnk-ml/index.html↩
  5. [5]Patrick Tucker, “Without A New Draft, Russian Offensive Operations Are Over, US Intel Chiefs Say,” Defense One, May 4, 2023, https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/05/without-new-draft-russian-offensive-operations-are-over-us-intel-chiefs-say/386003/↩
  6. [6]Brad Lendon, Josh Pennington, and Uliana Pavlova, “Wagner chief says his forces are dying as Russia’s military leaders ‘sit like fat cats,’” CNN, May 5, 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/05/europe/wagner-military-group-prigozhin-ammunition-tirade-intl-hnk-ml/index.html↩
  7. [7]Brad Lendon, Josh Pennington, and Uliana Pavlova, “Wagner chief says his forces are dying as Russia’s military leaders ‘sit like fat cats,’” CNN, May 5, 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/05/europe/wagner-military-group-prigozhin-ammunition-tirade-intl-hnk-ml/index.html↩
  8. [8]Julia Ioffe, “‘Putin’s Chef’: The Man Behind Russia’s Shadow Army,” Puck, December 13, 2022, https://puck.news/putins-chef-the-man-behind-russias-shadow-army/↩
  9. [9]Brad Lendon, Josh Pennington, and Uliana Pavlova, “Wagner chief says his forces are dying as Russia’s military leaders ‘sit like fat cats,’” CNN, May 5, 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/05/europe/wagner-military-group-prigozhin-ammunition-tirade-intl-hnk-ml/index.html↩
  10. [10]Dan Ladden-Hall, “Prigozhin Says Jealous Kremlin Deliberately Stopped Wagner Taking Bakhmut,” March 16, 2023, https://www.thedailybeast.com/prigozhin-says-jealous-kremlin-deliberately-stopped-wagner-taking-bakhmut↩
  11. [11]David Benfell, “If Vladimir Putin doesn’t make sense, he doesn’t make sense, and he cannot last,” Not Housebroken, March 16, 2023, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/10/10/if-vladimir-putin-doesnt-make-sense-he-doesnt-make-sense-and-he-cannot-last/↩

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