I am reverting my forecast for November to toss-up.
Yes, Joe Biden is bleeding out over Palestine and recent Vox reporting that Biden’s plan is to have Israeli-Saudi Arabian diplomatic ties normalized[1] manages only to make it even uglier for anyone who remembers the grisly and brutal slaying of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
But I’m seeing doubts about Donald Trump’s health—both mental and physical—that will surely undermine support from his toxically masculine admirers (and the women who admire them and him) and the weirdness about claiming he didn’t make inflammatory remarks he notoriously had[2] can only raise further concerns about possible dementia.
From the beginning, I have wondered how either of these absolutely abysmal candidates can win. I’m still wondering that.
I think I am pretty safe in predicting a low turnout in which whoever manages to get more of their base out will win. That sounds like Trump, but he is gonna take some hits. The information bubbles in which polarized Amerikkkans live are not hermetically sealed. There will be leakage. There will be doubt. And I would bet that there will be a very public Trump failing that no one can deny or excuse.
I think moderates are going to split: Crime and the economy play in Trump’s favor. Abortion, Trump’s general insanity, his fascism, and his threat to our precious constitutional oligarchy all play in Biden’s.
How all that plays in November is impossible to predict. But you know I’ll keep trying.
Imperialism
Israel
Palestine
2024
Israeli attacks in central Gaza killed scores of Palestinians, many of them civilians, on Saturday amid a special forces operation to free four hostages held there, with the death toll sparking international outrage.
At least 274 Palestinians were killed and 698 wounded in Israeli strikes on the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, Gaza’s health ministry said on Sunday. The Israeli military said its forces came under heavy fire during the daytime operation.
The EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, called it a “massacre”, while the UN’s aid chief described in graphic detail scenes of “shredded bodies on the ground”.[3]
I don’t know how you say 274 killed, 698 wounded to rescue four hostages is proportionate. But perhaps most telling:
Israeli forces have now freed seven hostages, but the majority of those who are now back home were handed over under a temporary ceasefire deal last November. There are still 120 held in Gaza, at least a third of them presumed dead.[4]
If you’re serious about freeing hostages, you negotiate. If you’re serious about killing Palestinians, you do what the Israeli Defense Forces are doing. There is a problem in that allowing kidnappers any compensation in any form encourages them, but we also have to look quite simply, quite pragmatically at what fucking works and what fucking doesn’t. And stop fooling ourselves about how what doesn’t work supposedly does.
Shira Rubin et al., “Biden’s cease-fire plan tightens political squeeze for Netanyahu in Israel,” Washington Post, June 2, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/02/israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-palestine-ceasefire-biden/
Barak Ravid, “Biden: ‘Every reason’ for people to conclude Netanyahu is prolonging war in Gaza,” Axios, June 4, 2024, https://www.axios.com/2024/06/04/biden-israel-netanyahu-gaza-time-interview
Dan Williams, “Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox coalition partners back Gaza hostage deal,” Reuters, June 4, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahus-biggest-coalition-partner-backs-prospective-gaza-hostage-deal-2024-06-04/
Philissa Kramer, “Jewish officer resigns from US Army to protest Gaza war, citing lessons of the Holocaust,” Jewish Telegraphic Agency, June 5, 2024, https://www.jta.org/2024/06/05/united-states/jewish-us-army-major-harrison-mann-explains-why-he-resigned-over-us-support-for-gaza-war
Jacob Magid, “CIA chief returns to region to push hostage deal as Israel vows not to budge further,” Times of Israel, June 5, 2024, https://www.timesofisrael.com/cia-chief-returns-to-region-to-push-hostage-deal-as-israel-vows-not-to-budge-further/
Joseph Wilson, “Spain applies to join South Africa’s case at top UN court accusing Israel of genocide,” Associated Press, June 6, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/spain-israel-icj-genocide-case-67d4d9b8ecf6fd88e718319a5d93465a
Natasha Bertrand and Haley Britzky, “US military’s Gaza pier has been repaired and reattached to beach,” Cable News Network, June 7, 2024, https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/07/politics/us-pier-gaza-resume-operations/index.html
Julian Borger, “UN adds Israel to list of states committing violations against children,” Guardian, June 7, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/07/united-nations-israel-children-rights-violation
Carrie Keller-Lynn and Eduardo Kaplan, “Netanyahu Rival Poised to Resign in Blow to Israel’s War Cabinet,” Wall Street Journal, June 8, 2024, https://apple.news/A3Sy_d_LOSFWH8vKYPG4B-g
Nadeen Ebrahim, “Israeli minister Benny Gantz resigns from war cabinet in blow to Netanyahu,” Cable News Network, June 9, 2024, https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/09/middleeast/benny-gantz-resignation-post-war-plan-gaza-intl-latam/index.html
Emma Graham-Harrison, “Outrage over ‘massacre’ in Gaza as Israel rescued four hostages,” Guardian, June 9, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/09/israel-gaza-hostages-rescue-eu-outrage
Illiberalism
Fig. 1. Photograph by Joachim F. Thurn, August 1991, Bundesarchiv, B 145 Bild-F089030-0003, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0 DE.
Victor Goury-Laffont, “French far right obliterates Macron’s camp in EU election,” Politico, June 9, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-european-election-results-2024-far-right-triumphs-france-emmanuel-macron-camp-fight-second-place/
Nette Nöstlinger, “German conservatives first, far-right AfD second in EU election: Early projection,” Politico, June 9, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/conservatives-finish-first-germany-eu-election-early-projection-cdu-csu/
Gilead
Donald Trump
Fig. 2. Donald Trump, depicted in an orange jumpsuit, reportedly by the Drudge, date unknown, via Mediaite,[5] fair use. Apparently, no mugshot was taken when he was actually arrested over hush money paid to Stormy Daniels.[6]
So Donald Trump has now denied calling for Hillary Clinton to be put in jail[7] (remember her emails?) and denied calling soldiers killed in action “losers” and “suckers.”[8]
Trump reportedly snubbed a planned commemoration for the 100th anniversary of WWI at Aisne-Marne American Cemetery in Belleau, fearing his hair would become disheveled in the rain, The Atlantic reported in 2020.
“Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers,” Trump reportedly told staffers, according to the magazine. The then-president also called the more than 1,800 Marines buried there “suckers” elsewhere during his 2018 trip in France, per The Atlantic.[9]
Clinton had used an unsecured mail server for official business. Trump unlawfully kept classified records, including highly sensitive material, and resisted returning those files to the government.
Following Trump’s conviction in the hush money case, Karen McDougal and Stormy Daniels would presumably be well within their rights to call Trump a “loser” and a “sucker.”
Hypocrisy aside, it’s interesting to me that Trump perceives a need to deny the very statements that his base defends as him saying what he thinks, a trait they see as a virtue.
Josh Marcus, “Trump says only a ‘psycho’ would call war dead ‘suckers and losers’ – which a general says Trump did,” Independent, June 9, 2024, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-france-cemetery-suckers-losers-b2559531.html
Neoliberalism
Academic repression
Student loans
Fig. 3. Unattributed and undated image via James G. Martin Center for Academic Renewal,[10] fair use.
A judge ruled that only three states, out of many, have standing to challenge the Joe Biden administration’s student loan forgiveness plan.[11] That’s really pretty much the story and not really worth that much, as the case, at least for now, can proceed with three plaintiffs just like it could have with many more.
I’m just watching this very closely because I have well over $300,000 worth of skin in this game, accumulated on the route to my Ph.D.
Natalie Venegas, “Student loan update: Federal judge hands Joe Biden’s plan a legal win,” Newsweek, June 8, 2024, https://apple.news/AivXXqDKfR0ag2S8-QBvMBg
- [1]Joshua Keating, “The longshot plan to end the war in Gaza and bring peace to the Middle East,” Vox, May 3, 2024, https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/5/3/24148104/us-saudi-israel-normalization-defense-pact-gaza-two-state↩
- [2]Ellie Quinlan Houghtaling, “Jail-Shy Trump Suddenly Backs Away From Major Catchphrase,” New Republic, June 3, 2024, https://newrepublic.com/post/182180/felon-trump-jail-never-said-lock-her-up; Josh Marcus, “Trump says only a ‘psycho’ would call war dead ‘suckers and losers’ – which a general says Trump did,” Independent, June 9, 2024, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-france-cemetery-suckers-losers-b2559531.html↩
- [3]Emma Graham-Harrison, “Outrage over ‘massacre’ in Gaza as Israel rescued four hostages,” Guardian, June 9, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/09/israel-gaza-hostages-rescue-eu-outrage↩
- [4]Emma Graham-Harrison, “Outrage over ‘massacre’ in Gaza as Israel rescued four hostages,” Guardian, June 9, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/09/israel-gaza-hostages-rescue-eu-outrage↩
- [5]Alex Griffing, “Drudge Puts Trump in an Orange Jumpsuit as Site Monitors His Potential Indictment,” Mediaite, August 29, 2022, https://www.mediaite.com/news/drudge-puts-trump-in-an-orange-jumpsuit-as-site-monitors-his-potential-indictment/↩
- [6]Sarah D. Wire and Alexandra E. Petri, “Trump charged with 34 felony counts in alleged hush money cover-up case,” Los Angeles Times, April 4, 2023, https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-04-04/donald-trump-alleged-hush-money-investigation-indictment-arraignment↩
- [7]Ellie Quinlan Houghtaling, “Jail-Shy Trump Suddenly Backs Away From Major Catchphrase,” New Republic, June 3, 2024, https://newrepublic.com/post/182180/felon-trump-jail-never-said-lock-her-up↩
- [8]Josh Marcus, “Trump says only a ‘psycho’ would call war dead ‘suckers and losers’ – which a general says Trump did,” Independent, June 9, 2024, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-france-cemetery-suckers-losers-b2559531.html↩
- [9]Josh Marcus, “Trump says only a ‘psycho’ would call war dead ‘suckers and losers’ – which a general says Trump did,” Independent, June 9, 2024, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-france-cemetery-suckers-losers-b2559531.html↩
- [10]Richard K. Vedder, “Eliminate or Radically Restructure Federal Student Loans,” James G. Martin Center for Academic Renewal, September 16, 2020, https://www.jamesgmartin.center/2020/09/eliminate-or-radically-restructure-federal-student-loans/↩
- [11]Natalie Venegas, “Student loan update: Federal judge hands Joe Biden’s plan a legal win,” Newsweek, June 8, 2024, https://apple.news/AivXXqDKfR0ag2S8-QBvMBg↩