Dorian (sort of) comes ashore in North Carolina

Updates

  1. Originally published, September 5, 9:05 pm.
  2. September 6, 8:39 am:
    • It turns out I misunderstood when I said below Dorian had made landfall. It appeared to me that the eyewall had come ashore, but apparently there’s another layer of subtlety here, and at this writing, I’m still figuring that out. They’re now saying it might make landfall over North Carolina’s Outer Banks.[1] I have adjusted the title and the text of this post.

Dorian

I was enmeshed in cell phone issues yesterday so I actually didn’t even remember to look at what Dorian was doing.
211226_5day_cone_no_line_and_win
It killed at least twenty people in the Bahamas. It turned north well off the Florida coast. As of 5:00 am, it had approached the Georgia coast and was expected to graze the Carolina coasts. It was once again a category 3 storm.[2] Charleston looked set to be a mess.[3] Tropical storm warnings and watches had been posted for an area including Virginia and Maryland, along with another area including Cape Cod in Massachusetts. Another area I couldn’t quite tell about was Washington, D.C.; it seems to me there will be considerable risk of flooding along the Potomac River and Chesapeake Bay to the extent that tides combine with winds.
Continental US - Clean Longwave Window - IR
As of 8:00 am. I thought we’d see weather in the Pittsburgh area from the outer reaches of Dorian in fairly short order. But it was mostly a beautiful and unusually clear day with really very little cumulus build up. I didn’t see a drop of rain.

eusgm-2019-09-05-20
72-hour gif, images two hours apart, as of 8:00 pm

As I was about to publish this issue, an alert from the Washington Post reported that Dorian had nearly made landfall in North Carolina. It had flooded downtown Charleston, South Carolina. It had dropped back down to being category 2.[4]

Andrew Freedman and Jason Samenow, “‘Life-threatening’ storm surge, torrential rains and hurricane force winds pound the Carolinas as Hurricane Dorian grinds north,” Washington Post, September 5, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/05/life-threatening-storm-surge-torrential-rains-hurricane-force-winds-pound-carolinas-hurricane-dorian-grinds-north/

Cameron McWhirter, Arian Campo-Flores, and Will Parker, “Hurricane Dorian Strengthens to Category 3 as It Churns Toward Carolinas,” Wall Street Journal, September 4, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/hurricane-dorian-churns-northward-off-floridas-coast-11567600739

Jason Samenow and
Andrew Freedman, “Dorian slams N.C. Outer Banks with 95 mph winds, charges toward southeast Va., southeast New England,” Washington Post, September 6, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/06/dorian-lash-eastern-north-carolina-southeast-virginia-southeast-new-england-before-finally-zipping-away/


Brexit

The anti-no-deal legislation has reached the Lords. Attempts to filibuster it have failed.[5] Let’s return to that flowchart from the Times:[6]
methodetimesprodwebbinb3e05f1e-c
Seriously, guys, thanks for this. Graphic from the Times, September 4, 2019. As of this morning, we were at “Lords passes bill” or “Lords rejects bill, bill fails,” with the Lords having agreed to take action in advance of Boris Johnson’s prorogation of Parliament.[7]

Peter Walker and Warren Murray, “Lords agree to push through bill preventing no-deal Brexit by end of Friday,” Guardian, September 4, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/05/brexit-lords-agree-to-push-through-bill-preventing-no-deal-by-end-of-friday


  1. [1]Jason Samenow and
    Andrew Freedman, “Dorian slams N.C. Outer Banks with 95 mph winds, charges toward southeast Va., southeast New England,” Washington Post, September 6, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/06/dorian-lash-eastern-north-carolina-southeast-virginia-southeast-new-england-before-finally-zipping-away/
  2. [2]Cameron McWhirter, Arian Campo-Flores, and Will Parker, “Hurricane Dorian Strengthens to Category 3 as It Churns Toward Carolinas,” Wall Street Journal, September 4, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/hurricane-dorian-churns-northward-off-floridas-coast-11567600739
  3. [3]Andrew Freedman and Jason Samenow, “‘Life-threatening’ storm surge, torrential rains and hurricane force winds pound the Carolinas as Hurricane Dorian grinds north,” Washington Post, September 5, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/05/life-threatening-storm-surge-torrential-rains-hurricane-force-winds-pound-carolinas-hurricane-dorian-grinds-north/
  4. [4]Andrew Freedman and Jason Samenow, “Core of Hurricane Dorian barrels ashore in North Carolina with ‘Life-threatening’ storm surge, torrential rains and high winds,” Washington Post, September 5, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/05/life-threatening-storm-surge-torrential-rains-hurricane-force-winds-pound-carolinas-hurricane-dorian-grinds-north/
  5. [5]Peter Walker and Warren Murray, “Lords agree to push through bill preventing no-deal Brexit by end of Friday,” Guardian, September 4, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/05/brexit-lords-agree-to-push-through-bill-preventing-no-deal-by-end-of-friday
  6. [6]Francis Elliott and Oliver Wright, “Moderates attack Boris Johnson after Tory rebels have whip removed,” Times, September 4, 2019, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/tory-rebels-defy-boris-johnson-in-historic-vote-hbnhhpzh7
  7. [7]Francis Elliott and Oliver Wright, “Moderates attack Boris Johnson after Tory rebels have whip removed,” Times, September 4, 2019, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/tory-rebels-defy-boris-johnson-in-historic-vote-hbnhhpzh7; Peter Walker and Warren Murray, “Lords agree to push through bill preventing no-deal Brexit by end of Friday,” Guardian, September 4, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/05/brexit-lords-agree-to-push-through-bill-preventing-no-deal-by-end-of-friday

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