The right-wing revolution will probably not be today

benfell

In this edition:

Gilead

Donald Trump

Coup attempt


Fig. 1. “Jake Angeli (Qanon Shaman), seen holding a Qanon sign at the intersection of Bell Rd and 75th Ave in Peoria, Arizona, on 2020 October 15.” Photography by TheUnseen011101 [pseud.], October 15, 2020, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Usually, Philip Bump is a better writer than this. And the graphs that accompany his analysis are nothing short of awful. But as near as I can tell—and I can’t tell much beyond this—he’s attempting to argue that a significant portion of the population, especially on the right, has decided that “[h]aving a strong leader who does not have to bother with legislature and elections” would be at least a “fairly good” thing and are willing to countenance violence to achieve this end.[1]

Bump focuses on the right, where according to the survey, over half of Republican-leaning voters aged 49 and under favor authoritarianism.[2]

It was a reminder that the mob mentality that drove the Capitol riot is, in fact, omnipresent in a segment of America’s and the world’s political right, stoked and elevated as a means of demonstrating toughness but with occasional collapses into actual violence.[3]

But his chart (figure 2) also suggests that over a quarter of Democratic-leaning voters, aged 49 and under, also share this view.


Fig. 2. Chart credited to the Washington Post, December 12, 2022, from World Values Survey, 2017, data,[4] fair use.

The first thing I have to do here is to insert my standard disclaimer on survey data that when the response rate, which should be ninety percent of a representative sample or more,[5] is instead in the single digits,[6] pollsters have a self-selecting sample that cannot represent non-respondents, particularly when, due to non-response, we have no idea, none whatsoever, how members of that self-selecting sample differ from all those non-respondents. This completely invalidates the methodology and I don’t care what rhetoric pollsters deploy to excuse themselves—the claim that polling works regardless[7] is belied by all the instances in which it doesn’t[8]—or what statistical magic they think they can employ to get around this problem—an absence of data remains an absence of data. This is a non-methodology that persists because we are desperate for an imaginary certainty of numbers,[9] and because people have built entire careers around this non-methodology.

But pretending for the moment that that’s a valid methodology, the data suggests a significant portion of the voting population is disenchanted with electoral and legislative systems. Bump also cites[10] some dissonant results from a more recent survey conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) that suggest some support for violence, mostly on the right (figure 3, labeled “FIGURE 2” within the image).[11]

Fig. 3. Chart by Diana Orcés, September 15, 2022,[12] fair use.

Bump is undoubtedly correct to point to a distinction between saying you support violence and actually being violent. On the other hand, as he also notes, on January 6, 2021, people were actually violent,[13] and I think we need to take into account that a predilection toward brutality—“Fuck Your Feelings” and “Make a Liberal Cry”—had become fashionable. I’m not sure how possible it is to draw a line between what people say they would do and what they actually would do, except in the moment, and the answer from January 6 and quite a few other right-wing terrorist incidents suggests that up to thirty-one percent of Republicans and nineteen percent of Amerikkkans overall might actually take up arms.[14]

In what I write here, I’m working from memory. I don’t even know where to begin to look for what I’m dimly remembering.

When we speak of revolution, we speak of a “critical mass” of support needed for success. It builds as something of a snowball effect as a wider and initially disinterested population feels compelled by the presence of people with guns to choose sides. Idealism this is most definitely mostly not.

Classically, when the revolutionary snowball forces outnumber the forces defending the status quo, it wins. I’m skeptical that this still holds. Technology offers the elites a considerable and, I think, increasing advantage.

But also historically, asymmetric conflict has often favored the ill-equipped insurgents who benefit from public sympathy when the regime commits outrages in prosecuting its war against them (think drone attacks on Afghan wedding parties) and as public support for suppressing the insurgency wanes (again, think Afghanistan). I don’t know but am deeply skeptical as to how well the analogy from Afghanistan to a right-wing insurgency in the U.S. would hold.

The percentage of the population needed to start that snowball is actually quite low. I don’t remember it being anywhere near so high as that nineteen percent. Indeed, the nine percent from both parties agreeing with the vaguer claim that “[i]t might be necessary to commit an act of violence to save the country”[15] strikes me as right in that range.

Bump is putting two and two together when he concludes,

A certain combination of factors need to be in place for violence to occur. Group engagement and enthusiasm is one. And that enthusiasm is now so pervasive as to undergird an off-the-cuff comment from a sitting member of Congress about how Jan. 6 was winnable. That — ha ha! — an insurrection that they helped foment would be better armed.

At that, the [Southern Poverty Law Center] reported, those in the room “erupted in cheers and applause.”[16]

What we don’t have here is evidence that it’s enough. Sure, nine percent of Amerikkkans think violence might be necessary or nineteen percent think it may be necessary,[17] and your guess is as good as mine as to what the difference between “might” and “may” actually means.

But crucially, the people in that nine percent or that nineteen percent don’t agree with each other and are in fact very much at odds with each other and, what’s more, as we saw in the midterm elections, a somewhat larger portion of the population sees its interests threatened by right-wing extremism. That might not stop right-wing extremists from giving violent rebellion a try. But if they were to do so, it would be a bloodbath with regime forces, rebels, and counter-rebels all in a fight. And for all the crazy we’re seeing,[18] I really think, and this is something that would be missed by the PRRI survey even if I accepted the methodology, the moment for violent right-wing extremism has passed.[19]

Caleb Ecarma, “Republicans Apparently Have No Red Line With Trump—Not Even His Desire to Terminate the Constitution,” Vanity Fair, December 5, 2022, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/12/republicans-trump-terminate-constitution

Jeremy Roebuck, “Rudy Giuliani doubles down on false Pennsylvania election fraud claims in disciplinary hearing,” Philadelphia Inquirer, December 5, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/news/rudy-giuliani-dc-disciplinary-board-hearing-bar-pennsylvania-election-20221205.html

Aaron Blake, “4 takeaways from the Georgia Senate runoff,” Washington Post, December 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/06/takeaways-georgia-runoff-2022-warnock-walker/

Sara Murray, Annie Grayer, and Zachary Cohen, “House January 6 committee has decided to make criminal referrals, chairman says,” CNN, December 6, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/06/politics/january-6-committee-criminal-referrrals/index.html

Jenny Jarvie, “Warnock defeats Walker in Georgia runoff, giving Democrats a 51-seat Senate majority,” Los Angeles Times, December 6, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2022-12-06/sen-raphael-warnock-defeats-herschel-walker-in-georgia-senate-runoff

David Von Drehle, “The tragedy of Herschel Walker,” Washington Post, December 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/12/06/herschel-walker-reputation-georgia-football-politics-senate-trump/

Jacqueline Alemany et al., “Items with classified markings found at Trump storage unit in Florida,” Washington Post, December 7, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/12/07/trump-tower-bedminster-records-search/

Lloyd Green, “Georgia’s runoff was a resounding rebuke of Trumpism. Will Republicans hear it?” Guardian, December 7, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/dec/07/georgias-runoff-was-a-resounding-rebuke-of-trumpism-will-republicans-hear-it

Debra Cassens Weiss, “3 conservative SCOTUS justices appear to seek middle ground on ‘independent state legislature’ theory,” American Bar Association Journal, December 7, 2022, https://www.abajournal.com/news/article/3-conservative-scotus-justices-appear-to-seek-middle-ground-on-independent-state-legislature-theory

Spencer S. Hsu et al., “Justice Department asks judge to hold Trump team in contempt over Mar-a-Lago case,” Washington Post, December 8, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/12/08/trump-contempt-mar-a-lago-records/

Aaron Blake, “The politics of Kyrsten Sinema’s party switch,” Washington Post, December 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/09/what-sinema-party-switch-means/

Burgess Everett, “Sinema switches to independent, shaking up the Senate,” Politico, December 9, 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/09/sinema-arizona-senate-independent-00073216

David A. Graham, “Kyrsten Sinema Is Going to Be a Perpetual Pain for Democrats,” Atlantic, December 9, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/12/sinemas-switch-changes-very-little/672413/

Jacob Magid, “Trump berates disloyal US ‘Jewish leaders,’ ignoring calls to condemn Kanye, Fuentes,” Times of Israel, December 9, 2022, https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-lays-into-jewish-leaders-ignoring-calls-to-condemn-kanye-fuentes/

Chris McGreal, “Is Dominion’s $1.6bn defamation lawsuit a death blow for Murdoch and Fox News?” Guardian, December 11, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/dec/11/rupert-murdoch-fox-dominion-lawsuit-deposition

Philip Bump, “The GOP has created a safe space for musing about violent rebellion,” Washington Post, October 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/12/republicans-greene-jan-6-violence/

Eugene Scott, “White House condemns Greene over claim she would have ‘won’ Jan. 6 insurrection,” Washington Post, December 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/12/greene-jan6-white-house-armed-insurrection/

Katelyn Polantz and Tierney Sneed, “Judge formally dismisses Trump’s case for a Mar-a-Lago special master,” CNN, December 12, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/12/politics/judge-dismisses-special-master-trump/index.html

Chris Walker, “DOJ Is ‘On a Path to Charge’ Trump, Former U.S. Attorney Says,” Truthout, December 12, 2022, https://truthout.org/articles/doj-is-on-path-to-charge-trump-former-us-attorney-says/

Gilead

Gun nuttery


Fig. 4. Foxtrot comic strip by Bill Amend, August 21, 2022, via GoComics, fair use.

Ellie Rushing, “Can widespread trauma therapy prevent gun violence? This community leader says yes,” Philadelphia Inquirer, December 13, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/news/philadelphia/philadelphia-trauma-therapy-gun-violence-prevention-will-little-personal-development-20221213.html

Illiberalism


Fig. 5. Photograph by Joachim F. Thurn, August 1991, Bundesarchiv, B 145 Bild-F089030-0003, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0 DE.

Hungary had been on the cusp of losing €7.5 billion in EU payouts over concerns that the money may aid graft in the country. In protest, Budapest had been blocking both an €18 billion EU aid package for Ukraine and a minimum global corporate tax rate.

But on Monday, EU countries agreed to lower the suspension to €6.3 billion.[20]

Paola Tamma, “EU strikes deal with Hungary, reducing funding freeze to get Ukraine aid approved,” Politico, December 12, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-deal-hungary-drop-vetoe-recovery-plan-approved-funding-freeze-ukraine-aid/

Pennsylvania

2022 election


Fig. 6. John Fetterman as mayor of Braddock, photograph uncredited and undated, via Next Pittsburgh,[21] fair use.

Katie Meyer and Stephen Caruso, “Despite midterm losses, Pa. Republicans appear unlikely to abandon combative agenda,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, December 12, 2022, https://triblive.com/news/pennsylvania/despite-midterm-losses-pa-republicans-appear-unlikely-to-abandon-combative-agenda/

  1. [1]Philip Bump, “The GOP has created a safe space for musing about violent rebellion,” Washington Post, October 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/12/republicans-greene-jan-6-violence/↩
  2. [2]Philip Bump, “The GOP has created a safe space for musing about violent rebellion,” Washington Post, October 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/12/republicans-greene-jan-6-violence/↩
  3. [3]Philip Bump, “The GOP has created a safe space for musing about violent rebellion,” Washington Post, October 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/12/republicans-greene-jan-6-violence/↩
  4. [4]Philip Bump, “The GOP has created a safe space for musing about violent rebellion,” Washington Post, October 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/12/republicans-greene-jan-6-violence/↩
  5. [5]This according to Valerie Sue, the professor in my first research methods class, at California State University, Hayward (now East Bay), Fall 2003.↩
  6. [6]Steven Shepard, “Report: Phone polls aren’t dead yet,” Politico, May 15, 2017, https://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/15/pollsters-phone-polls-238409; Courtney Kennedy and Hannah Hartig, “Response rates in telephone surveys have resumed their decline,” Pew Research Center, February 27, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/27/response-rates-in-telephone-surveys-have-resumed-their-decline/↩
  7. [7]Steven Shepard, “Report: Phone polls aren’t dead yet,” Politico, May 15, 2017, https://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/15/pollsters-phone-polls-238409; Courtney Kennedy and Hannah Hartig, “Response rates in telephone surveys have resumed their decline,” Pew Research Center, February 27, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/27/response-rates-in-telephone-surveys-have-resumed-their-decline/↩
  8. [8]Dan Balz, “2020 presidential polls suffered worst performance in decades, report says,” Washington Post, July 18, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020-poll-errors/2021/07/18/8d6a9838-e7df-11eb-ba5d-55d3b5ffcaf1_story.html; David Byler, “Polling is broken. No one knows how to fix it,” Washington Post, July 22, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/07/22/polling-is-broken-no-one-knows-how-fix-it/; Mona Chalabi, “The pollsters were wrong – again. Here’s what we know so far,” Guardian, November 4, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/commentisfree/2020/nov/04/the-pollsters-were-wrong-again-heres-what-we-know-so-far; David A. Graham, “The Polling Crisis Is a Catastrophe for American Democracy,” Atlantic, November 4, 2020, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/polling-catastrophe/616986/; Steven Shepard, “Dem pollsters acknowledge ‘major errors’ in 2020 polling,” Politico, April 13, 2021, https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/13/dems-polling-failure-481044; Adam Taylor, “Why Bolsonaro and the global right-wing love to hate on election polls,” Washington Post, October 3, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/10/03/bolsonaro-brazil-polls-trump/↩
  9. [9]Jacques Ellul, The Technological Society, John Wilkinson, trans. (New York: Vintage, 1964).; Neil Postman, Technopoly: The Surrender of Culture to Technology (New York: Vintage, 1993).↩
  10. [10]Philip Bump, “The GOP has created a safe space for musing about violent rebellion,” Washington Post, October 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/12/republicans-greene-jan-6-violence/↩
  11. [11]Diana Orcés, “Political Polarization and Democracy in the United States,” Public Religion Research Institute, September 15, 2022, https://www.prri.org/spotlight/the-impact-of-deepening-political-polarization-on-american-democracy/↩
  12. [12]Diana Orcés, “Political Polarization and Democracy in the United States,” Public Religion Research Institute, September 15, 2022, https://www.prri.org/spotlight/the-impact-of-deepening-political-polarization-on-american-democracy/↩
  13. [13]Philip Bump, “The GOP has created a safe space for musing about violent rebellion,” Washington Post, October 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/12/republicans-greene-jan-6-violence/↩
  14. [14]Diana Orcés, “Political Polarization and Democracy in the United States,” Public Religion Research Institute, September 15, 2022, https://www.prri.org/spotlight/the-impact-of-deepening-political-polarization-on-american-democracy/↩
  15. [15]Diana Orcés, “Political Polarization and Democracy in the United States,” Public Religion Research Institute, September 15, 2022, https://www.prri.org/spotlight/the-impact-of-deepening-political-polarization-on-american-democracy/↩
  16. [16]Philip Bump, “The GOP has created a safe space for musing about violent rebellion,” Washington Post, October 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/12/republicans-greene-jan-6-violence/↩
  17. [17]Diana Orcés, “Political Polarization and Democracy in the United States,” Public Religion Research Institute, September 15, 2022, https://www.prri.org/spotlight/the-impact-of-deepening-political-polarization-on-american-democracy/↩
  18. [18]David Benfell, “Revisiting Philip Slater’s Chrysalis Effect in the post-Donald Trump era,” Not Housebroken, December 12, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/12/08/revisiting-philip-slaters-chrysalis-effect-in-the-post-donald-trump-era/↩
  19. [19]David Benfell, “More questions than answers as Donald Trump flags come down,” Not Housebroken, December 3, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/08/28/more-questions-than-answers-as-donald-trump-flags-come-down/↩
  20. [20]Paola Tamma, “EU strikes deal with Hungary, reducing funding freeze to get Ukraine aid approved,” Politico, December 12, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-deal-hungary-drop-vetoe-recovery-plan-approved-funding-freeze-ukraine-aid/↩
  21. [21]Kim Lyons, “Braddock Mayor John Fetterman keeps on truckin’ in his quest for the Senate,” Next Pittsburgh, March 11, 2016, https://nextpittsburgh.com/features/the-challengers-braddock-mayor-john-fetterman-keeps-on-truckin/↩

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