Gilead
Competitive authoritarian regime project
Fig. 1. President Lyndon B. Johnson, Martin Luther King, Jr., and Clarence Mitchell during signing ceremony of the voting rights act. Yoichi Okamoto, August 6, 1965, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.
Jason Willick worries that the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact could produce chaos.[1] What is this compact?
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact purports to take effect once states carrying 270 electoral votes (the minimum needed to win the presidency) have agreed to its terms.
The aim is to replace the electoral college with an improvised popular-vote system for electing presidents without amending the Constitution. Minnesota’s move means that 16 states and D.C., controlling 205 electoral votes, are now parties to the compact. Michigan’s Democratic-controlled legislature is also set to vote on the compact. If the Great Lakes State becomes the 17th to approve it, compact member states will control 220 electoral votes, bringing them more than 80 percent of the way to 270.[2]
I have previously taken up this topic in a blog post entitled, “Mitigating the democratic deficit in the United States,” where I recommended instead that big states should divide up into smaller states.[3]
I still think breaking up large states whose residents are grossly under-represented[4] is a better idea, but the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact wouldn’t require constitutional changes or jurisdictional break-ups. Willick thinks the compact might run into other legal problems, hence chaos.[5]
For now, I’ll accept that chaos. The democratic principle of one person, one vote, is severely compromised when Wyoming gets the same number of senators as California and when the number of senators is used to inflate the number of electors each state sends to the electoral college.[6] This was, of course, by design. Willick praises the present system for limiting the number of candidates.[7] But when we have a choice between Donald Trump and Joe Biden and are supposed to choose the lesser of two evils, we’re only getting evil.
Jason Willick, “This blue-state election compact could create a constitutional crisis,” Washington Post, June 11, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/11/democratic-electoral-alliance-potential-constitutional-crisis/
Donald Trump
Coup attempt
Fig. 2. “Jake Angeli (Qanon Shaman), seen holding a Qanon sign at the intersection of Bell Rd and 75th Ave in Peoria, Arizona, on 2020 October 15.” Photography by TheUnseen011101 [pseud.], October 15, 2020, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.
Donald Trump potentially faces on the order of 20 years in prison.[8] That is, if I interpret David Aaron’s article correctly and that’s not at all certain. It also, to state the obvious but important, depends on Judge Aileen Cannon[9] and a jury[10] convicting Trump.
Given the importance of this case, perhaps the most important criminal trial in the history of the United States—certainly the most watched—and in light of what Judge [Aileen] Cannon did in the search-and-seizure case last year, I think she must step aside. I think she must grant a motion to recuse herself, unless she does it before a motion is even made.
And the reason I say that is that she treated [Donald] Trump as special, or, to put it another way, she was partial to Trump as a former President, which should not have any influence on the way this trial is conducted. I’m concerned that the partiality she expressed in her decisions last year creates a reasonable perception in the mind of a fair-minded person that she is not impartial—which is the test. Her behavior when she was ruling on the search-and-seizure case creates a reason to doubt her impartiality.[11]
The case was filed in the West Palm Beach court division of the Southern District of Florida, meaning the jury may be selected from registered voters in Palm Beach County, home to Mr. Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort, where he has lived since leaving the White House. Mr. Trump lost Palm Beach County to President Biden by nearly 13 percentage points in 2020.
But a jury pool made up of Miami-Dade County voters, to the south of Palm Beach, is also a possibility, particularly if it is determined that the federal courthouse in Miami, where Mr. Trump is expected to make an initial appearance on Tuesday, is best equipped to accommodate what will likely be one of the highest-profile criminal trials in American history.
Mr. Trump lost Miami-Dade by only about seven points in the last election, getting strong support from Hispanic voters in particular; more than two-thirds of the county’s residents identify as Hispanic, according to census data.
Both counties, however, have grown more Republican in recent years, and Republican candidates have had significant success in statewide races. Mr. Trump won Florida in both 2016 and 2020, and the state has twice elected Gov. Ron DeSantis, currently Mr. Trump’s main rival for the Republican presidential nomination.[12]
What we’re getting here is a more detailed look at the reasons people are particularly worried about this judge and the yet-to-be-selected jury.[13]
A curious aside: There is, in absolutely none of the coverage I’ve looked at, any question whatsoever about Trump’s guilt. Which is to pretty blatantly acknowledge I’m not looking (much anyway) at right-wing media. I’m satisfied that Trump is indeed guilty, so I’m not faulting anyone else for agreeing. But we should also realize that this is what “conviction in the media” looks like, with an unsympathetic defendant and relentless coverage of the supposed evidence against him, combined with a ridiculing of his—well, they are, actually—ludicrous defenses.
I hope y’all understand quite clearly that I’m not dying on that particular hill. Just sayin’.
As I’ve been piecing all this together, though I happened to notice other coverage: Trump’s legal team is in disarray (and I might be in error for writing of that team in the singular rather than the plural).[14] It is, I suppose, theoretically possible that this chaos might yield a performance that even Cannon can’t ignore. Don’t hold your breath. Hope she recuses.
Jacqueline Alemany et al., “Trump lawyers meeting with Justice Dept. on classified documents case,” Washington Post, June 5, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/05/trump-lawyers-meeting-justice-doj/
Josh Dawsey and Amy Gardner, “Trump-funded studies disputing election fraud are focus in two probes,” Washington Post, June 5, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/06/05/trump-funded-studies-disputing-election-fraud-are-focus-two-probes/
Rozina Sabur, “Flood at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort raises suspicions in classified documents case,” Telegraph, June 5, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/05/donald-trump-mar-a-lago-resort-flood-pool-documents/
Chris Walker, “Trump’s Lawyers Have 2-Hour Meeting With DOJ Over Mar-a-Lago Documents Case,” Truthout, June 5, 2023, https://truthout.org/articles/trumps-lawyers-have-2-hour-meeting-with-doj-over-mar-a-lago-documents-case/
Casey Newton, “The platforms give up on 2020 lies,” Platformer, June 6, 2023, https://www.platformer.news/p/the-platforms-give-up-on-2020-lies
Spencer S. Hsu et al., “Trump special counsel shifts focus of possible indictment to S. Florida,” Washington Post, June 7, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/miami-grand-jury-trump-classified-documents/
Alex Isenstadt and Kyle Cheney, “Trump notified that he is the target of an ongoing criminal investigation,” Politico, June 7, 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/07/trump-notified-that-he-is-the-target-of-an-ongoing-criminal-investigation-00100920
Devlin Barrett, Perry Stein, and Josh Dawsey, “Trump charged in classified documents case, second indictment in months,” Washington Post, June 8, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/08/trump-classified-documents-mar-a-lago/
Marc Caputo, “‘Prosecuting Politicians is Hard Here’: Why South Florida is a Tough Place for DOJ to Try Trump,” Messenger, June 8, 2023, https://themessenger.com/politics/trump-south-florida-miami-doj-jury-challenge
Ankush Khardori, “The Chaos Inside Trump’s Legal Team,” New York, June 8, 2023, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/06/donald-trumps-lawyers-on-his-dysfunctional-legal-team.html
Hugo Lowell, “Donald Trump charged with illegal retention of classified documents,” Guardian, June 8, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/08/donald-trump-charged-retention-classified-documents
Stefania Palma, “Donald Trump says he has been indicted on federal charges in documents probe,” Financial Times, June 8, 2023, https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/trump-is-desperately-trying-to-define-the-narrative-about-his-federal-indictment
Gabriel J. Chin, “Trump indictment unsealed – a criminal law scholar explains what the charges mean, and what prosecutors will now need to prove,” Conversation, June 9, 2023, https://theconversation.com/trump-indictment-unsealed-a-criminal-law-scholar-explains-what-the-charges-mean-and-what-prosecutors-will-now-need-to-prove-207469
Joseph Ferguson and Thomas A. Durkin, “Trump charged under Espionage Act – which covers a lot more crimes than just spying,” Conversation, June 9, 2023, https://theconversation.com/trump-charged-under-espionage-act-which-covers-a-lot-more-crimes-than-just-spying-207373
Alan Feuer, “Trump-Appointed Judge Is Said to Be Handling Documents Case,” New York Times, June 9, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/us/politics/aileen-cannon-trump-judge.html
David Gilbert, “‘We Need to Start Killing’: Trump’s Far-Right Supporters Are Threatening Civil War,” Vice, June 9, 2023, https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxjjgb/trump-supporters-are-threatening-civil-war
Ankush Khardori, “The ‘Lock Him Up’ Election,” New York, June 9, 2023, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/06/trump-indictment-turns-2024-into-lock-him-up-election.html
Tom Nichols, “Trump’s Indictment Reveals a National-Security Nightmare,” Atlantic, June 9, 2023, https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/06/trumps-indictment-reveals-a-national-security-nightmare/674362/
Jennifer Rubin, “Merrick Garland and Jack Smith come through: Trump will face justice,” Washington Post, June 9, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/09/trump-indictment-garland-smith-justice/
Jonathan Turley, “Trying Trump: Scandal May Be His Element — But This Time May Be Different,” Messenger, June 9, 2023, https://themessenger.com/opinion/trying-trump-scandal-may-be-his-element-but-this-time-may-be-different
Aruna Viswanatha, Sadie Gurman, and C. Ryan Barber, “Trump Charged Over Willful Retention of Classified Information, Obstruction,” Wall Street Journal, June 9, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-associate-also-indicted-in-mar-a-lago-documents-case-759cbb17
Marc Fisher, “Trump’s path to indictment: ‘Isn’t it better if there are no documents?’” Washington Post, June 10, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/10/trump-classified-documents-path-bathroom-indictment/
Michael S. Schmidt et al., “Trump Supporters’ Violent Rhetoric in His Defense Disturbs Experts,” New York Times, June 10, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/10/us/politics/trump-supporter-violent-rhetoric.html
Kyle Cheney, “He devised a fringe legal theory to try to keep Trump in power. Now he’s on the verge of being disbarred,” Forbes, June 11, 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/11/john-eastman-disbarment-trial-trump-00101407
Richard Nixon [Justin Sherrin], “On the Trump/Nauta Indictment,” Patreon, June 11, 2023, https://www.patreon.com/posts/on-trump-nauta-84420752
Marina Pitofsky, “Barr ‘shocked’ by Trump indictment details: “If even half of it is true, then he’s toast,’” USA Today, June 11, 2023, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/06/11/bill-barr-donald-trump-classified-documents-indictment/70310878007/
Paul Rosenzweig, “The Three Biggest Obstacles to Convicting Trump,” Atlantic, June 11, 2023, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/three-biggest-obstacles-convicting-trump/674366/
David Aaron, “How Much Prison Time Does Former President Trump Face? Applying the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines,” Just Security, June 12, 2023, https://www.justsecurity.org/86901/how-much-prison-time-does-former-president-trump-face-applying-the-u-s-sentencing-guidelines/
Isaac Chotiner, “Will the Judge in Trump’s Case Recuse Herself—or Be Forced To?” New Yorker, June 12, 2023, https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/will-the-judge-in-trumps-case-recuse-herself-or-be-forced-to
Nick Madigan, Verónica Zaragovia, and Richard Fausset, “Floridians Would Make Up Trump’s Jury Pool. Here’s What Some Are Saying,” New York Times, June 12, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/12/us/trump-voters-florida-jury.html
Illiberalism
Fig. 3. Photograph by Joachim F. Thurn, August 1991, Bundesarchiv, B 145 Bild-F089030-0003, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0 DE.
[Silvio Berlusconi’s] Forza Italia political party was a coalition partner with current Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, a far-right leader who came to power last year, although he held no position in the government.
His friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin put him at odds with Meloni, a staunch supporter of Ukraine. On Berlusconi’s 86th birthday, while the war raged, Putin sent the former Italian leader best wishes and vodka, and the Italian boasted that he had returned the favor by sending back Italian wine. . . .
Berlusconi’s party was eclipsed as the dominant force on Italy’s political right: first by the League, led by anti-migrant populist Matteo Salvini, then by Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, with its roots in neo-fascism. Following elections in 2022, Meloni formed a governing coalition with the help of Berlusconi and others.[15]
Frances D’Emelio and Colleen Barry, “Silvio Berlusconi, former Italian leader tarnished by multiple scandals, dies at 86,” Los Angeles Times, June 12, 2023, https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2023-06-12/silvio-berlusconi-dead-italy-prime-minister
Neoliberalism
Banking
Commercial real estate
Fig. 4. “The iconic Crescent stands as recognizable landmark in the upscale neighborhood of Uptown, Dallas.” Photograph by Dallasedits [pseud.], July 5, 2016, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
I’m thinking this is what a ‘doom loop’ looks like.
Kate King, “Hotel Owners Start to Write Off San Francisco as Business Nosedives,” Wall Street Journal, June 12, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/hotel-owners-start-to-write-off-san-francisco-as-business-nosedives-e84c64ef
Kevin Truong and Noah Baustin, “Westfield Gives Up Downtown San Francisco Mall,” San Francisco Standard, June 12, 2023, https://sfstandard.com/business/westfield-gives-up-downtown-san-francisco-mall/
(dis)United Kingdom
Prime minister
Fig. 5. President Reagan on the South Lawn during the arrival ceremony of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher of the United Kingdom. U.S. Government photograph, November 16, 1988, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.
Only old ideologues believe [Margaret] Thatcher’s mantra that all this should be “left to the markets”. Her outsourcing of services deliberately avoided trade unions, cementing the bottom half of wages to the floor. She caused inequality to soar, never to return to its 1970s level, with hard-won working rights lost to zero-hours contracts, a gig economy and freelance insecurity. Yet, despite the recent strikes, more people think unions play a positive rather than a negative role in Britain today.
David Cameron and George Osborne’s austerity was inspired by Thatcher: the smaller the state the better, they insisted. For decades, the UK collected far less tax than equivalent EU countries – and now pays a heavy price in a failing NHS, social care, education and everything else. But Tory MPs are blind to the seismic change in public attitudes: they put their faith in Sunak’s promised tax cuts as the party’s salvation, expecting a 2p income tax cut next March, and demanding more. Polling in key seats shows that that is no life raft, however. Just 12% prefer cutting taxes and spending less on public services, with 38% wanting to keep tax and spending as they are. Another 36% want taxes raised, with more spent on public services. Labour will be wary of trusting such public altruism, but it shows an extraordinary shift in sentiment, with Labour being more trusted on solid economic management. After the crash, austerity, Brexit and Covid, the public is rejecting old Thatcherite nostrums.[16]
Paul Dallison, “Boris Johnson quits as member of parliament with blast at Partygate probe,” Politico, June 9, 2023, https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-steps-down-as-member-of-parliament/
Michael Savage and Toby Helm, “Furious Tories turn against Boris Johnson after ‘bias’ outburst,” Guardian, June 10, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/10/furious-tories-boris-johnson-bias-outburst-rishi-sunak-nigel-adams-byelection
Jim Pickard, “Johnson’s angry exit from parliament poses fresh dilemmas for Sunak,” Financial Times, June 11, 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/f42455a7-8d68-4f00-861b-e7016b098721
Polly Toynbee, “This is Starmer’s moment. Thatcherism has collapsed, and the Tories are at each other’s throats,” Guardian, June 12, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/12/keir-starmer-moment-thatcherism-collapsed-tories-existential-crisis
- [1]Jason Willick, “This blue-state election compact could create a constitutional crisis,” Washington Post, June 11, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/11/democratic-electoral-alliance-potential-constitutional-crisis/↩
- [2]Jason Willick, “This blue-state election compact could create a constitutional crisis,” Washington Post, June 11, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/11/democratic-electoral-alliance-potential-constitutional-crisis/↩
- [3]David Benfell, “Mitigating the democratic deficit in the United States,” Not Housebroken, December 20, 2020, https://disunitedstates.org/2018/07/15/mitigating-the-democratic-deficit-in-the-united-states/↩
- [4]David Benfell, “Mitigating the democratic deficit in the United States,” Not Housebroken, December 20, 2020, https://disunitedstates.org/2018/07/15/mitigating-the-democratic-deficit-in-the-united-states/↩
- [5]Jason Willick, “This blue-state election compact could create a constitutional crisis,” Washington Post, June 11, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/11/democratic-electoral-alliance-potential-constitutional-crisis/↩
- [6]David Benfell, “Mitigating the democratic deficit in the United States,” Not Housebroken, December 20, 2020, https://disunitedstates.org/2018/07/15/mitigating-the-democratic-deficit-in-the-united-states/↩
- [7]Jason Willick, “This blue-state election compact could create a constitutional crisis,” Washington Post, June 11, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/11/democratic-electoral-alliance-potential-constitutional-crisis/↩
- [8]David Aaron, “How Much Prison Time Does Former President Trump Face? Applying the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines,” Just Security, June 12, 2023, https://www.justsecurity.org/86901/how-much-prison-time-does-former-president-trump-face-applying-the-u-s-sentencing-guidelines/↩
- [9]Isaac Chotiner, “Will the Judge in Trump’s Case Recuse Herself—or Be Forced To?” New Yorker, June 12, 2023, https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/will-the-judge-in-trumps-case-recuse-herself-or-be-forced-to; Alan Feuer, “Trump-Appointed Judge Is Said to Be Handling Documents Case,” New York Times, June 9, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/us/politics/aileen-cannon-trump-judge.html; Paul Rosenzweig, “The Three Biggest Obstacles to Convicting Trump,” Atlantic, June 11, 2023, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/three-biggest-obstacles-convicting-trump/674366/↩
- [10]Marc Caputo, “‘Prosecuting Politicians is Hard Here’: Why South Florida is a Tough Place for DOJ to Try Trump,” Messenger, June 8, 2023, https://themessenger.com/politics/trump-south-florida-miami-doj-jury-challenge; Nick Madigan, Verónica Zaragovia, and Richard Fausset, “Floridians Would Make Up Trump’s Jury Pool. Here’s What Some Are Saying,” New York Times, June 12, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/12/us/trump-voters-florida-jury.html; Paul Rosenzweig, “The Three Biggest Obstacles to Convicting Trump,” Atlantic, June 11, 2023, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/three-biggest-obstacles-convicting-trump/674366/↩
- [11]Stephen Gillers, quoted in Isaac Chotiner, “Will the Judge in Trump’s Case Recuse Herself—or Be Forced To?” New Yorker, June 12, 2023, https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/will-the-judge-in-trumps-case-recuse-herself-or-be-forced-to↩
- [12]Nick Madigan, Verónica Zaragovia, and Richard Fausset, “Floridians Would Make Up Trump’s Jury Pool. Here’s What Some Are Saying,” New York Times, June 12, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/12/us/trump-voters-florida-jury.html↩
- [13]Marc Caputo, “‘Prosecuting Politicians is Hard Here’: Why South Florida is a Tough Place for DOJ to Try Trump,” Messenger, June 8, 2023, https://themessenger.com/politics/trump-south-florida-miami-doj-jury-challenge; Isaac Chotiner, “Will the Judge in Trump’s Case Recuse Herself—or Be Forced To?” New Yorker, June 12, 2023, https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/will-the-judge-in-trumps-case-recuse-herself-or-be-forced-to; Alan Feuer, “Trump-Appointed Judge Is Said to Be Handling Documents Case,” New York Times, June 9, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/us/politics/aileen-cannon-trump-judge.html; Nick Madigan, Verónica Zaragovia, and Richard Fausset, “Floridians Would Make Up Trump’s Jury Pool. Here’s What Some Are Saying,” New York Times, June 12, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/12/us/trump-voters-florida-jury.html; Paul Rosenzweig, “The Three Biggest Obstacles to Convicting Trump,” Atlantic, June 11, 2023, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/three-biggest-obstacles-convicting-trump/674366/↩
- [14]Ankush Khardori, “The Chaos Inside Trump’s Legal Team,” New York, June 8, 2023, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/06/donald-trumps-lawyers-on-his-dysfunctional-legal-team.html↩
- [15]Frances D’Emelio and Colleen Barry, “Silvio Berlusconi, former Italian leader tarnished by multiple scandals, dies at 86,” Los Angeles Times, June 12, 2023, https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2023-06-12/silvio-berlusconi-dead-italy-prime-minister↩
- [16]Polly Toynbee, “This is Starmer’s moment. Thatcherism has collapsed, and the Tories are at each other’s throats,” Guardian, June 12, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/12/keir-starmer-moment-thatcherism-collapsed-tories-existential-crisis↩