Gilead
Donald Trump
Fig. 1. Donald Trump, depicted in an orange jumpsuit, reportedly by the Drudge, via Mediaite,[1] fair use. Apparently, no mugshot was taken when he was actually arrested.[2]
I guess it’s pretty easy to lose track of Donald Trump’s legal travails. The Financial Times has a list of six current cases against him, both criminal and civil.[3] Given the difficulties of Jack Smith’s indictment,[4] the state-level prosecutions may yet prove most promising, particularly as presidential pardon power, which Trump claims he can use on himself, does not apply to state convictions.[5]
Coup attempt
Fig. 2. “Jake Angeli (Qanon Shaman), seen holding a Qanon sign at the intersection of Bell Rd and 75th Ave in Peoria, Arizona, on 2020 October 15.” Photography by TheUnseen011101 [pseud.], October 15, 2020, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.
The problem is not with the indictment itself: there is no real worry that it will be dismissed as legally insufficient, or that the charges are false, or that the crimes aren’t serious enough. The indictment and the evidence appear very solid, and rely on no novel theories. But the fact that this is a good indictment—and, even more, that [Jack] Smith had no choice but to bring the prosecution once he found the facts that he did—does not insure that the consequences for the country will be positive.[6]
Can we please take this one step at a time? We don’t even have the outcome of this or five other cases against Donald Trump.[7] I’m not even seeing here a good path to analyzing this with a futurism-style scenario analysis such as one of my old professors at California State University, East Bay, Lonny Brooks, lectured about. We’re just getting too far ahead of ourselves.
Casey Newton, “The platforms give up on 2020 lies,” Platformer, June 6, 2023, https://www.platformer.news/p/the-platforms-give-up-on-2020-lies
Spencer S. Hsu et al., “Trump special counsel shifts focus of possible indictment to S. Florida,” Washington Post, June 7, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/miami-grand-jury-trump-classified-documents/
Alex Isenstadt and Kyle Cheney, “Trump notified that he is the target of an ongoing criminal investigation,” Politico, June 7, 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/07/trump-notified-that-he-is-the-target-of-an-ongoing-criminal-investigation-00100920
Devlin Barrett, Perry Stein, and Josh Dawsey, “Trump charged in classified documents case, second indictment in months,” Washington Post, June 8, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/08/trump-classified-documents-mar-a-lago/
Marc Caputo, “‘Prosecuting Politicians is Hard Here’: Why South Florida is a Tough Place for DOJ to Try Trump,” Messenger, June 8, 2023, https://themessenger.com/politics/trump-south-florida-miami-doj-jury-challenge
Ankush Khardori, “The Chaos Inside Trump’s Legal Team,” New York, June 8, 2023, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/06/donald-trumps-lawyers-on-his-dysfunctional-legal-team.html
Hugo Lowell, “Donald Trump charged with illegal retention of classified documents,” Guardian, June 8, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/08/donald-trump-charged-retention-classified-documents
Stefania Palma, “Donald Trump says he has been indicted on federal charges in documents probe,” Financial Times, June 8, 2023, https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/trump-is-desperately-trying-to-define-the-narrative-about-his-federal-indictment
Gabriel J. Chin, “Trump indictment unsealed – a criminal law scholar explains what the charges mean, and what prosecutors will now need to prove,” Conversation, June 9, 2023, https://theconversation.com/trump-indictment-unsealed-a-criminal-law-scholar-explains-what-the-charges-mean-and-what-prosecutors-will-now-need-to-prove-207469
Joseph Ferguson and Thomas A. Durkin, “Trump charged under Espionage Act – which covers a lot more crimes than just spying,” Conversation, June 9, 2023, https://theconversation.com/trump-charged-under-espionage-act-which-covers-a-lot-more-crimes-than-just-spying-207373
Alan Feuer, “Trump-Appointed Judge Is Said to Be Handling Documents Case,” New York Times, June 9, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/us/politics/aileen-cannon-trump-judge.html
David Gilbert, “‘We Need to Start Killing’: Trump’s Far-Right Supporters Are Threatening Civil War,” Vice, June 9, 2023, https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxjjgb/trump-supporters-are-threatening-civil-war
Ankush Khardori, “The ‘Lock Him Up’ Election,” New York, June 9, 2023, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/06/trump-indictment-turns-2024-into-lock-him-up-election.html
Tom Nichols, “Trump’s Indictment Reveals a National-Security Nightmare,” Atlantic, June 9, 2023, https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/06/trumps-indictment-reveals-a-national-security-nightmare/674362/
Jennifer Rubin, “Merrick Garland and Jack Smith come through: Trump will face justice,” Washington Post, June 9, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/09/trump-indictment-garland-smith-justice/
Jonathan Turley, “Trying Trump: Scandal May Be His Element — But This Time May Be Different,” Messenger, June 9, 2023, https://themessenger.com/opinion/trying-trump-scandal-may-be-his-element-but-this-time-may-be-different
Aruna Viswanatha, Sadie Gurman, and C. Ryan Barber, “Trump Charged Over Willful Retention of Classified Information, Obstruction,” Wall Street Journal, June 9, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-associate-also-indicted-in-mar-a-lago-documents-case-759cbb17
Marc Fisher, “Trump’s path to indictment: ‘Isn’t it better if there are no documents?’” Washington Post, June 10, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/10/trump-classified-documents-path-bathroom-indictment/
Michael S. Schmidt et al., “Trump Supporters’ Violent Rhetoric in His Defense Disturbs Experts,” New York Times, June 10, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/10/us/politics/trump-supporter-violent-rhetoric.html
Kyle Cheney, “He devised a fringe legal theory to try to keep Trump in power. Now he’s on the verge of being disbarred,” Forbes, June 11, 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/11/john-eastman-disbarment-trial-trump-00101407
Richard Nixon [Justin Sherrin], “On the Trump/Nauta Indictment,” Patreon, June 11, 2023, https://www.patreon.com/posts/on-trump-nauta-84420752
Marina Pitofsky, “Barr ‘shocked’ by Trump indictment details: “If even half of it is true, then he’s toast,’” USA Today, June 11, 2023, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/06/11/bill-barr-donald-trump-classified-documents-indictment/70310878007/
Paul Rosenzweig, “The Three Biggest Obstacles to Convicting Trump,” Atlantic, June 11, 2023, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/three-biggest-obstacles-convicting-trump/674366/
David Aaron, “How Much Prison Time Does Former President Trump Face? Applying the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines,” Just Security, June 12, 2023, https://www.justsecurity.org/86901/how-much-prison-time-does-former-president-trump-face-applying-the-u-s-sentencing-guidelines/
Isaac Chotiner, “Will the Judge in Trump’s Case Recuse Herself—or Be Forced To?” New Yorker, June 12, 2023, https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/will-the-judge-in-trumps-case-recuse-herself-or-be-forced-to
Spencer S. Hsu et al., “Trump scrambles to find lawyer before first federal court appearance,” Washington Post, June 12, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/12/trump-documents-lawyer/
Molly Jong-Fast, “Even a Damning Federal Case Can’t Break the GOP’s Devotion to Donald Trump,” Vanity Fair, June 12, 2023, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/06/donald-trump-federal-indictment-case-gop
Eric Lutz, “Judge Aileen Cannon Could Blow Up Trump Documents Case,” Vanity Fair, June 12, 2023, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/06/aileen-cannon-trump-documents-case
Nick Madigan, Verónica Zaragovia, and Richard Fausset, “Floridians Would Make Up Trump’s Jury Pool. Here’s What Some Are Saying,” New York Times, June 12, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/12/us/trump-voters-florida-jury.html
Jeannie Suk Gersen, “The Case Against Trump Is Strong, but There Are Problems Ahead,” New Yorker, June 13, 2023, https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-case-against-trump-is-strong-but-there-are-problems-ahead
Hugo Lowell, “Trump finds no new lawyers for court appearance in Mar-a-Lago case,” Guardian, June 13, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/13/trump-finds-no-new-lawyers-mar-a-lago-documents-arraignment
Hush money
Fig. 3. Cartoon by Jesse Duquette, undated, via “Minneapple23” [pseud.] on Imgur, April 1, 2023, fair use.
Tori Otten, “On Same Day He’s Arrested, Trump Faces New Legal Troubles for Different Crime,” New Republic, June 13, 2023, https://newrepublic.com/post/173604/day-hes-arrested-trump-faces-new-legal-troubles-different-crime
White Christian nationalism
Fig. 4. In terms of geographic area, Pennsylvania is very much a white Christian nationalist kind of place. Photograph by author, January 5, 2023.
Some white Christian nationalists are advocating for a constitutional convention. That’s the Convention Of States (COS) Project. And the New York Magazine article[8] is mostly about that. But also,
Among progressives, there is some, albeit far more limited, convention interest. Last week, California governor Gavin Newsom joined in, calling for a convention to propose a gun-control amendment. The most prominent left-wing proponent is Lawrence Lessig, a Harvard Law School professor who, in 2016, debated alongside [Mark] Meckler and argues that a convention is the only way to achieve fundamental democratic reform because of gerrymandering, money in politics, and the Electoral College. “The anxiety many have — and I think it’s fair — is that a convention will be minoritarian,” Lessig said, referring to the lopsided power small states would have if each state gets a vote. As such, “it’s really critical to embed a democracy constraint on the convention process.” Still, whether a convention would abide by any constraints, especially in such a volatile political climate, is an open question.[9]
I think we need to break up the country first. White Christian nationalists want a country that the rest of us don’t want and if we’re talking about using the Constitution to settle so-called “culture war” issues, then no matter how you spin it, you are defining the country as something some of us, of whatever political persuasion (other than anarchism), will not want.
The fear I’ve always seen associated with the constitutional convention idea, repeated here, is that there are no actual constraints on what it could do. Mark Meckler, a leader of COS, advocates a constitutional amendment, presumably to be passed in the normal way, to enable single-issue constitutional conventions. But other white Christian nationalists fear a convention could be hijacked by progressives to, for examples, curtail gun rights and guarantee abortion rights.[10]
Will it happen? Casey Quackenbush thinks, under certain circumstances, it might.[11] And as I alluded to earlier, this isn’t the first I’ve heard of the idea. That doesn’t mean it’s particularly gaining traction. I think I need to see a few things happen that right now flatly aren’t, like a Republican victory in 2024 such that they can control the agenda and trajectory of any such convention.
Casey Quackenbush, “The Constitutional Kamikaze,” New York, June 13, 2023, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/06/the-dark-money-behind-mark-mecklers-convention-of-states.html
- [1]Alex Griffing, “Drudge Puts Trump in an Orange Jumpsuit as Site Monitors His Potential Indictment,” Mediaite, August 29, 2022, https://www.mediaite.com/news/drudge-puts-trump-in-an-orange-jumpsuit-as-site-monitors-his-potential-indictment/↩
- [2]Sarah D. Wire and Alexandra E. Petri, “Trump charged with 34 felony counts in alleged hush money cover-up case,” Los Angeles Times, April 4, 2023, https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-04-04/donald-trump-alleged-hush-money-investigation-indictment-arraignment↩
- [3]Financial Times, “The cases against Donald Trump,” Financial Times, June 9, 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/0452cacc-26d4-409f-9ff6-cf5213c2987f↩
- [4]Devlin Barrett, Perry Stein, and Josh Dawsey, “Trump charged in classified documents case, second indictment in months,” Washington Post, June 8, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/08/trump-classified-documents-mar-a-lago/; Marc Caputo, “‘Prosecuting Politicians is Hard Here’: Why South Florida is a Tough Place for DOJ to Try Trump,” Messenger, June 8, 2023, https://themessenger.com/politics/trump-south-florida-miami-doj-jury-challenge; Gabriel J. Chin, “Trump indictment unsealed – a criminal law scholar explains what the charges mean, and what prosecutors will now need to prove,” Conversation, June 9, 2023, https://theconversation.com/trump-indictment-unsealed-a-criminal-law-scholar-explains-what-the-charges-mean-and-what-prosecutors-will-now-need-to-prove-207469; Isaac Chotiner, “Will the Judge in Trump’s Case Recuse Herself—or Be Forced To?” New Yorker, June 12, 2023, https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/will-the-judge-in-trumps-case-recuse-herself-or-be-forced-to; Joseph Ferguson and Thomas A. Durkin, “Trump charged under Espionage Act – which covers a lot more crimes than just spying,” Conversation, June 9, 2023, https://theconversation.com/trump-charged-under-espionage-act-which-covers-a-lot-more-crimes-than-just-spying-207373; Alan Feuer, “Trump-Appointed Judge Is Said to Be Handling Documents Case,” New York Times, June 9, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/us/politics/aileen-cannon-trump-judge.html; Jeannie Suk Gersen, “The Case Against Trump Is Strong, but There Are Problems Ahead,” New Yorker, June 13, 2023, https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-case-against-trump-is-strong-but-there-are-problems-ahead; Hugo Lowell, “Donald Trump charged with illegal retention of classified documents,” Guardian, June 8, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/08/donald-trump-charged-retention-classified-documents; Eric Lutz, “Judge Aileen Cannon Could Blow Up Trump Documents Case,” Vanity Fair, June 12, 2023, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/06/aileen-cannon-trump-documents-case; Nick Madigan, Verónica Zaragovia, and Richard Fausset, “Floridians Would Make Up Trump’s Jury Pool. Here’s What Some Are Saying,” New York Times, June 12, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/12/us/trump-voters-florida-jury.html; Paul Rosenzweig, “The Three Biggest Obstacles to Convicting Trump,” Atlantic, June 11, 2023, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/three-biggest-obstacles-convicting-trump/674366/; Jennifer Rubin, “Merrick Garland and Jack Smith come through: Trump will face justice,” Washington Post, June 9, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/09/trump-indictment-garland-smith-justice/↩
- [5]Kimberly Wehle, “Biden Isn’t the Only Official Who Could Pardon Trump,” Politico, May 2, 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/05/02/donald-trump-pardon-00094636↩
- [6]Jeannie Suk Gersen, “The Case Against Trump Is Strong, but There Are Problems Ahead,” New Yorker, June 13, 2023, https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-case-against-trump-is-strong-but-there-are-problems-ahead↩
- [7]Financial Times, “The cases against Donald Trump,” Financial Times, June 9, 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/0452cacc-26d4-409f-9ff6-cf5213c2987f↩
- [8]Casey Quackenbush, “The Constitutional Kamikaze,” New York, June 13, 2023, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/06/the-dark-money-behind-mark-mecklers-convention-of-states.html↩
- [9]Casey Quackenbush, “The Constitutional Kamikaze,” New York, June 13, 2023, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/06/the-dark-money-behind-mark-mecklers-convention-of-states.html↩
- [10]Casey Quackenbush, “The Constitutional Kamikaze,” New York, June 13, 2023, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/06/the-dark-money-behind-mark-mecklers-convention-of-states.html↩
- [11]Casey Quackenbush, “The Constitutional Kamikaze,” New York, June 13, 2023, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/06/the-dark-money-behind-mark-mecklers-convention-of-states.html↩