Imperialism
Russia
Ukraine
Fig. 1. “Destroyed Russian military vehicles located on the main street Khreshchatyk are seen as part of the celebration of the Independence Day of Ukraine in Kyiv, August 24.” Photograph by Gleb Garanich for Reuters, August 24, 2022,[1] fair use.
We can at this point only speculate about why [Yevgeny] Prigozhin undertook this putsch, and why it all failed so quickly. One possibility is that Prigozhin had allies in Moscow who promised to support him, and somehow that support fell through: Perhaps his friends in the Kremlin got cold feet, or were less numerous than Prigozhin realized, or never existed at all. Prigozhin, after all, is not exactly a military genius or a diplomat; he’s a violent, arrogant, emotional man who may well have embarked on this scheme huffing from a vat of his own overconfidence.[2]
Mostly, there isn’t much new from last night (June 24, 2023). But Nick Allen, at the Telegraph, reports that Vladimir Putin found only lukewarm support even from his allies, who called it an ‘internal matter,’ as he faced down Yevgeny Prigozhin. There is a sense that this may not be over, as the Wagner Group has forces and relationships with governments around the world;[3] even eliminating the forces in Russia or Ukraine would not eliminate the organization.
Perhaps. But as I think with Donald Trump and the January 6 coup attempt, you tend to only get one shot at it.
First, [Vladimir] Putin has suffered a huge political blow, and he has survived by making deals both with [Yevgeny] Prigozhin and with his own colleagues in the Kremlin that are, by any definition, a humiliation. And second, Yevgeny Prigozhin has changed the Russian political environment surrounding Putin’s war in Ukraine.[4]
I don’t think we know the full content of those “deals.” But my expectation is that Prigozhin is done[5] and so, too, soon, will be Putin,[6] whom I would advise to make an escape into exile, sooner rather than later.
[Yevgeny] Prigozhin drew blood and then walked away from a man who never, ever lets such a personal offense go unavenged. [Vladimir] Putin, however, may have had no choice, which is yet another sign of his precarious situation. All of the options were terrifying: Ordering the Russian military to attack armed Russian men would have been a huge risk, especially because those men (and their hatred of the bureaucrats at the Defense Ministry) have at least some support among Russia’s officers and political elites. Killing Prigozhin outright was also a high-risk proposition; with their leader dead and the Russian military closing in, the Wagnerites might have decided to fight to the death.[7]
Francesca Ebel and Kamila Hrabchuk, “Delivering mail in war-ravaged Ukraine: ‘There are still people living here,’” Washington Post, June 22, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/22/mail-delivery-war-hulyaipole-ukraine/
Robyn Dixon and Mary Ilyushina, “Wagner mercenary boss faces arrest over ‘incitement to armed rebellion,’” Washington Post, June 23, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/23/prigozhin-wagner-mercenary-russia-military/
Gabriel Gavin, Tim Ross, and Zoya Sheftalovich, “Putin in crisis: Wagner chief Prigozhin declares war on Russian military leadership, says ‘we will destroy everything,’” Politico, June 23, 2023, https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-in-crisis-as-wagner-chief-prigozhin-declares-war-on-russian-military-leadership/
Yaroslav Trofimov, “Russia Issues Arrest Warrant for Wagner Chief on Charges of Mutiny,” Wall Street Journal, June 23, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-shoots-down-russian-cruise-missile-barrage-9d9da03a
Nick Allen, “US says Wagner coup is ‘real’ and ‘serious’ as White House consults allies,” Telegraph, June 24, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/24/wagner-coup-russia-us-reaction-joe-biden-vladimir-putin/
Nick Allen, “Vladimir Putin receives lukewarm response from allies over ‘internal’ problem,” Telegraph, June 24, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/24/putin-lukewarm-response-allies-support-belarus-deescalate/
Anne Applebaum, “Russia Slides Into Civil War,” Atlantic, June 24, 2023, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/06/russia-civil-war-wagner-putin-coup/674517/
Peter Baker, “Short-Lived Mutiny in Russia Sheds Light on Putin’s Hold on Power,” New York Times, June 24, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/24/us/politics/us-russia-putin.html
Colin Freeman, “How Yevgeny Prigozhin went for broke — then left everyone guessing,” Telegraph, June 24, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/24/how-yevgeny-prigozhins-wagner-group-launched-coup-russia/
Gabriel Gavin and Christian Oliver, “Kremlin says Prigozhin will depart for Belarus after his rebellion fizzles,” Politico, June 24, 2023, https://www.politico.eu/article/wagner-group-russia-forces-turn-back-moscow-prigozhin-declares/
Luke Harding, “The Wagner rebellion has been called off but Putin has never looked weaker,” Guardian, June 24, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/24/even-if-wagner-rebellion-fails-putins-presidency-has-never-looked-weaker
James Kilner, “Putin’s aura of invincibility is shattered – and in Russia, weakness is terminal,” Telegraph, June 24, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/24/putin-betrayal-russia-coup-armed-mutiny-wagner-prigozhin/
Ellen Nakashima and Shane Harris, “U.S. spies learned in mid-June Prigozhin was plotting Russia uprising,” Washington Post, June 24, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/24/us-intelligence-prigozhin-putin/
Tom Nichols, “The Coup Is Over, but Putin Is in Trouble,” Atlantic, June 24, 2023, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/06/putin-russian-coup-over-prigozhin-wagner/674522/
Richard M. Nixon [Justin Sherrin], “Russia Briefing,” Patreon, June 24, 2023, https://www.patreon.com/posts/russia-briefing-85060327
Graham Russell, “‘Putin humiliated’: what the papers said about the Wagner rebellion in Russia,” Guardian, June 24, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/25/putin-humiliated-what-the-papers-said-about-the-wagner-rebellion-in-russia
Robert Tombs, “Putin is not out of the woods – he stands gravely weakened,” Telegraph, June 24, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/24/putin-not-out-of-woods-gravely-weakened/
Yaroslav Trofimov, “Russia’s Putin Orders Military to Crush Wagner Power Grab, Calls It Treason,” Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-shoots-down-russian-cruise-missile-barrage-9d9da03a
- [1]Reuters, “Ukraine puts destroyed Russian tanks on display in Kyiv,” August 25, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/ukraine-puts-destroyed-russian-tanks-on-idUSRTSALV9Q↩
- [2]Tom Nichols, “The Coup Is Over, but Putin Is in Trouble,” Atlantic, June 24, 2023, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/06/putin-russian-coup-over-prigozhin-wagner/674522/↩
- [3]Peter Baker, “Short-Lived Mutiny in Russia Sheds Light on Putin’s Hold on Power,” New York Times, June 24, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/24/us/politics/us-russia-putin.html; Nick Allen, “Vladimir Putin receives lukewarm response from allies over ‘internal’ problem,” Telegraph, June 24, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/24/putin-lukewarm-response-allies-support-belarus-deescalate/↩
- [4]Tom Nichols, “The Coup Is Over, but Putin Is in Trouble,” Atlantic, June 24, 2023, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/06/putin-russian-coup-over-prigozhin-wagner/674522/↩
- [5]Tom Nichols, “The Coup Is Over, but Putin Is in Trouble,” Atlantic, June 24, 2023, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/06/putin-russian-coup-over-prigozhin-wagner/674522/↩
- [6]Peter Baker, “Short-Lived Mutiny in Russia Sheds Light on Putin’s Hold on Power,” New York Times, June 24, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/24/us/politics/us-russia-putin.html; James Kilner, “Putin’s aura of invincibility is shattered – and in Russia, weakness is terminal,” Telegraph, June 24, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/24/putin-betrayal-russia-coup-armed-mutiny-wagner-prigozhin/; Tom Nichols, “The Coup Is Over, but Putin Is in Trouble,” Atlantic, June 24, 2023, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/06/putin-russian-coup-over-prigozhin-wagner/674522/; Graham Russell, “‘Putin humiliated’: what the papers said about the Wagner rebellion in Russia,” Guardian, June 24, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/25/putin-humiliated-what-the-papers-said-about-the-wagner-rebellion-in-russia; Robert Tombs, “Putin is not out of the woods – he stands gravely weakened,” Telegraph, June 24, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/24/putin-not-out-of-woods-gravely-weakened/↩
- [7]Tom Nichols, “The Coup Is Over, but Putin Is in Trouble,” Atlantic, June 24, 2023, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/06/putin-russian-coup-over-prigozhin-wagner/674522/↩