Imperialism
Russia
Ukraine
Fig. 1. “Destroyed Russian military vehicles located on the main street Khreshchatyk are seen as part of the celebration of the Independence Day of Ukraine in Kyiv, August 24.” Photograph by Gleb Garanich for Reuters, August 24, 2022,[1] fair use.
Apparently, no one knows where Vladimir Putin is.[2]
Russian opposition news websites have reported that [Vladimir] Putin’s presidential plane took off from Moscow at lunchtime on Saturday and Kew towards St Petersburg before it switched oJ its tracking system around the Tver region. Putin has a residence in the region.[3]
He has not been heard from since[4] and I presume he’s aware that he’s in grave danger,[5] so I’m just wondering if he’s grabbing a few things before escaping with his life.
Francesca Ebel and Kamila Hrabchuk, “Delivering mail in war-ravaged Ukraine: ‘There are still people living here,’” Washington Post, June 22, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/22/mail-delivery-war-hulyaipole-ukraine/
Robyn Dixon and Mary Ilyushina, “Wagner mercenary boss faces arrest over ‘incitement to armed rebellion,’” Washington Post, June 23, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/23/prigozhin-wagner-mercenary-russia-military/
Gabriel Gavin, Tim Ross, and Zoya Sheftalovich, “Putin in crisis: Wagner chief Prigozhin declares war on Russian military leadership, says ‘we will destroy everything,’” Politico, June 23, 2023, https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-in-crisis-as-wagner-chief-prigozhin-declares-war-on-russian-military-leadership/
Yaroslav Trofimov, “Russia Issues Arrest Warrant for Wagner Chief on Charges of Mutiny,” Wall Street Journal, June 23, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-shoots-down-russian-cruise-missile-barrage-9d9da03a
Nick Allen, “US says Wagner coup is ‘real’ and ‘serious’ as White House consults allies,” Telegraph, June 24, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/24/wagner-coup-russia-us-reaction-joe-biden-vladimir-putin/
Anne Applebaum, “Russia Slides Into Civil War,” Atlantic, June 24, 2023, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/06/russia-civil-war-wagner-putin-coup/674517/
Peter Baker, “Short-Lived Mutiny in Russia Sheds Light on Putin’s Hold on Power,” New York Times, June 24, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/24/us/politics/us-russia-putin.html
Colin Freeman, “How Yevgeny Prigozhin went for broke — then left everyone guessing,” Telegraph, June 24, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/24/how-yevgeny-prigozhins-wagner-group-launched-coup-russia/
Gabriel Gavin and Christian Oliver, “Kremlin says Prigozhin will depart for Belarus after his rebellion fizzles,” Politico, June 24, 2023, https://www.politico.eu/article/wagner-group-russia-forces-turn-back-moscow-prigozhin-declares/
James Kilner, “Putin’s aura of invincibility is shattered – and in Russia, weakness is terminal,” Telegraph, June 24, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/24/putin-betrayal-russia-coup-armed-mutiny-wagner-prigozhin/
Ellen Nakashima and Shane Harris, “U.S. spies learned in mid-June Prigozhin was plotting Russia uprising,” Washington Post, June 24, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/24/us-intelligence-prigozhin-putin/
Richard M. Nixon [Justin Sherrin], “Russia Briefing,” Patreon, June 24, 2023, https://www.patreon.com/posts/russia-briefing-85060327
Robert Tombs, “Putin is not out of the woods – he stands gravely weakened,” Telegraph, June 24, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/24/putin-not-out-of-woods-gravely-weakened/
Yaroslav Trofimov, “Russia’s Putin Orders Military to Crush Wagner Power Grab, Calls It Treason,” Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-shoots-down-russian-cruise-missile-barrage-9d9da03a
Benoit Faucon, Joe Parkinson and Thomas Grove, “Why Wagner Chief Prigozhin Turned Against Putin, ” Wall Street Journal, June 25, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/wagner-prigozhin-putin-mutiny-moscow-march-7072d6ea
Richard Kemp, “Putin’s downfall is only delayed. It’s coming,” Telegraph, June 25, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/25/putins-downfall-is-only-delayed-its-coming/
James Kilner, “Putin disappears as allies ask how rebels got so close to Moscow,” Telegraph, June 25, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/25/vladimir-putin-disappears-question-how-wagner-close-moscow/
James Risen, “Prigozhin and Putin: Dead Men Walking,” Intercept, June 25, 2023, https://theintercept.com/2023/06/25/prigozhin-putin-russia-coup/
Below is a brief description of Prigozhin’s mutiny and the factors that contributed to its outcome. We, as observers, initially missed important details due to the scarcity of information and lack of time for in-depth analysis. Here’s the perspective that currently seems most plausible:
1️⃣ Prigozhin’s rebellion wasn’t a bid for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin. It arose from a sense of desperation; Prigozhin was forced out of Ukraine and found himself unable to sustain Wagner the way he did before, while the state machinery was turning against him. To top it off, Putin was ignoring him and publicly supporting his most dangerous adversaries.
2️⃣ Prigozhin’s objective was to draw Putin’s attention and to impose a discussion about conditions to preserve his activities – a defined role, security, and funding. These weren’t demands for a governmental overthrow; they were a desperate bid to save the enterprise, hoping that Prigozhin’s merits in taking Bakhmut (that’s why he needed it!) would be taken into account and the concerns would catch Putin’s serious attention. Now it appears that these merits helped Prigozhin to get out of this crisis alive, but without a political future in Russia (at least while Putin is in power).
3️⃣ Prigozhin was caught off-guard by Putin’s reaction and found himself unprepared to assume the role of a revolutionary. He also wasn’t prepared for the fact that Wagner was about to reach Moscow where his only option remained – to “take the Kremlin” – an action that would inevitably result in him and his fighters being eradicated.
4️⃣ Those in the elites who were able reached out to Prigozhin with offers to surrender. This likely added to his sense of impending doom. However, I don’t believe any high-level negotiations took place. Lukashenko presented Prigozhin with a Putin-endorsed offer to retreat on the condition that Prigozhin would leave Russia and Wagner would be dissolved.
5️⃣ I don’t think Prigozhin was in a position to make demands (such as the resignation of Shoigu or Gerasimov – something many observers expect today. If that happens, it will be due to another reason.) After Putin’s address in the morning of June 24th, Prigozhin’s primary concern was to find an off-ramp. The situation would have led to inevitable death in merely a few hours. It is possible that Putin has promised him safety on the condition that Prigozhin remains quietly in Belarus.
I stand by my previous assertion that Putin and the state have been dealt a severe blow (which will have significant repercussions for the regime). However, I want to emphasize that image has always been a secondary concern for Putin. Setting optics aside, Putin objectively resolved the Wagner and Prigozhin problem by dissolving the former and expelling the latter. The situation would have been far worse if it had culminated in a bloody mess in the outskirts of Moscow.
And no, Putin doesn’t need Wagner or Prigozhin. He can manage with his own forces. He’s now certainly convinced of that.
I will disclose many more details in my bulletin to be issued tomorrow evening.— Tatiana Stanovaya (@Stanovaya) June 25, 2023
Tatiana Stanovaya, “Below is a brief description of Prigozhin’s mutiny and the factors that contributed to its outcome. . . .” Twitter, June 25, 2023, https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/1672991911538196482
Ishaan Tharoor, “Putin is reaping what he sowed,” Washington Post, June 25, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/25/putin-wagner-damage-challenge-image/
Patrick Tucker, “How Prigozhin’s Baby Coup Weakened Everyone in Russia,” Defense One, June 25, 2023, https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/06/how-prigozhins-baby-coup-weakened-everyone-russia/387888/
Neoliberalism
Democratic (neoliberal) Party
Joe Biden
Hunter Biden
Byron Tau, C. Ryan Barber, and Sadie Gurman, “Did Hunter Biden Get a Sweetheart Deal? Prosecutors Weigh In,” Wall Street Journal, June 25, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/did-hunter-biden-get-a-sweetheart-deal-prosecutors-weigh-in-2dc8656e
Gilead
Competitive authoritarian regime project
Fig. 1. President Lyndon B. Johnson, Martin Luther King, Jr., and Clarence Mitchell during signing ceremony of the voting rights act. Yoichi Okamoto, August 6, 1965, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.
Tierney Sneed, “Supreme Court allows for Louisiana congressional map to be redrawn to add another majority-Black district,” CNN, January 26, 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/26/politics/supreme-court-louisiana-congressional-redistricting/index.html
- [1]Reuters, “Ukraine puts destroyed Russian tanks on display in Kyiv,” August 25, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/ukraine-puts-destroyed-russian-tanks-on-idUSRTSALV9Q↩
- [2]James Kilner, “Putin disappears as allies ask how rebels got so close to Moscow,” Telegraph, June 25, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/25/vladimir-putin-disappears-question-how-wagner-close-moscow/↩
- [3]James Kilner, “Putin disappears as allies ask how rebels got so close to Moscow,” Telegraph, June 25, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/25/vladimir-putin-disappears-question-how-wagner-close-moscow/↩
- [4]James Kilner, “Putin disappears as allies ask how rebels got so close to Moscow,” Telegraph, June 25, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/25/vladimir-putin-disappears-question-how-wagner-close-moscow/↩
- [5]Peter Baker, “Short-Lived Mutiny in Russia Sheds Light on Putin’s Hold on Power,” New York Times, June 24, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/24/us/politics/us-russia-putin.html; Richard Kemp, “Putin’s downfall is only delayed. It’s coming,” Telegraph, June 25, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/25/putins-downfall-is-only-delayed-its-coming/; James Kilner, “Putin’s aura of invincibility is shattered – and in Russia, weakness is terminal,” Telegraph, June 24, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/24/putin-betrayal-russia-coup-armed-mutiny-wagner-prigozhin/; James Kilner, “Putin disappears as allies ask how rebels got so close to Moscow,” Telegraph, June 25, 2023, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/25/vladimir-putin-disappears-question-how-wagner-close-moscow/; James Risen, “Prigozhin and Putin: Dead Men Walking,” Intercept, June 25, 2023, https://theintercept.com/2023/06/25/prigozhin-putin-russia-coup/; Tatiana Stanovaya, “Below is a brief description of Prigozhin’s mutiny and the factors that contributed to its outcome. . . .” Twitter, June 25, 2023, https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/1672991911538196482; Patrick Tucker, “How Prigozhin’s Baby Coup Weakened Everyone in Russia,” Defense One, June 25, 2023, https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/06/how-prigozhins-baby-coup-weakened-everyone-russia/387888/↩