Vladimir Putin’s future amid inevitable Russian defeat

benfell

Imperialism

Russia

Ukraine


Fig. 1. “Destroyed Russian military vehicles located on the main street Khreshchatyk are seen as part of the celebration of the Independence Day of Ukraine in Kyiv, August 24.” Photograph by Gleb Garanich for Reuters, August 24, 2022,[1] fair use.

Yaroslav Trofimov has a good summary of the thinking generally on the possibility of Vladimir Putin leaving power, what it means for Ukraine, what it means for the U.S. and the rest of the west.[2] Mostly, I archive it so I have something a bit more recent to cite.

I agree with the assessment that Vladimir Putin cannot accept the defeat that is almost certainly inevitably headed Russia’s way and therefore fights to prolong his hold on power.[3] Given the environment Putin grew up in,[4] even if he can bear the humiliation of defeat (I doubt this), he is likely unable to even imagine being able to hold on to power in that contingency. Therefore, the question for me is not whether Putin’s downfall would be a good or bad thing for the west, but rather how it can happen, because sooner or later it must, so that the situation at least is unstuck.

Yaroslav Trofimov, “Should the West Fear Putin’s Fall?” Wall Street Journal, August 18, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/should-the-west-fear-putins-fall-f4e0a818

Hilary

Grace Toohey et al., “Hurricane Hilary barrels toward Southern California, bringing unprecedented dangers,” Wall Street Journal, August 19, 2023, https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-08-18/hurricane-hilary-category-4-southern-california

  1. [1]Reuters, “Ukraine puts destroyed Russian tanks on display in Kyiv,” August 25, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/ukraine-puts-destroyed-russian-tanks-on-idUSRTSALV9Q↩
  2. [2]Yaroslav Trofimov, “Should the West Fear Putin’s Fall?” Wall Street Journal, August 18, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/should-the-west-fear-putins-fall-f4e0a818↩
  3. [3]Yaroslav Trofimov, “Should the West Fear Putin’s Fall?” Wall Street Journal, August 18, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/should-the-west-fear-putins-fall-f4e0a818↩
  4. [4]Julia Ioffe, “About a Boy: The Roots of Putin’s Evil,” Puck, May 10, 2022, https://puck.news/about-a-boy-the-roots-of-putins-evil/↩

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