Early data casts doubt on PennWest University consolidation

benfell

Pennsylvania

Higher Education


Fig. 1. The Cathedral of Learning at the University of Pittsburgh (“Pitt”). Photograph by “RealNordyNed,” December 17, 2015, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.

Maddie Aiken, “PennWest is struggling. Its campuses are experiencing those challenges differently,” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, February 11, 2024, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/education/2024/02/11/pennwest-california-edinboro-clarion-student-enrollment/stories/202402090083

Erie


Fig. 2. Lake Erie, from Presque Isle State Park. Photograph by author, April 3, 2021.

Regrettably, I am having to defer my intended move to northwestern Pennsylvania. Landlords check credit; mine was damaged severely when Uber blindsided me with a 40 percent pay cut in late 2022. Historically, Uber has blamed “seasonality” for such cuts,[1] but of course, once the pay is cut, they have almost no incentive to raise it again, and I didn’t see any sustained increase in 2023. Because I use credit cards to smooth the fluctuations in a highly variable income, the result was a substantial increase in credit card debt.

I’ve been making significantly-more-than-minimum payments on time, because I have a high cash flow, but have not yet turned the tide on my debt. With the addition of a pension from Social Security and the technological improvements I’ve made to improve my ability to be offered orders, I have some limited hope that I can improve the situation this year. In the meantime, because nearly all landlords check credit, I’m stuck where I am.

This is a problem because rents have been increasing dramatically nationwide.[2] My landlord here has been threatening a significant increase, pretty much since the first year I renewed the lease. (With a wife now in memory care, he actually does now need the money.)

Valerie Myers, “The truth about slavery in Erie County in the 19th century,” Erie Times-News, February 12, 2024, https://www.goerie.com/story/news/local/2024/02/12/erie-pa-black-history-month-slavery-enslavement-abolition-history-census-fugitive-hamot-grubb/72393483007/

Imperialism

Israel

Palestine

07_09:10:47-2
Fig. 3. The ruins of a terminal at the Gaza airport. Image by Said Khatib (Agence France-Presse) on September 9, 2018, via the Times of Israel,[3] fair use.

So long as you are supporting [Binyamin] Netanyahu’s military operation in Gaza without condition, it makes absolutely no difference how much you turn the dial in your comments. Fundamentally, you have to make a decision not to give Bibi a blank check of support.[4]

And until Joe Biden imposes, really imposes conditions on aid to Israel, he and the United States are complicit in Israel’s genocide. And for what? It’s not like Israel is indeed achieving “total victory” over Hamas:

In a closed-door briefing last week, U.S. intelligence officials told lawmakers that while Israel had degraded Hamas’s military capabilities, it is not close to exterminating the group more than 100 days into its campaign, said officials familiar with the briefing, which was first reported by the New York Times.

U.S. leaders are skeptical of Netanyahu’s claim that he has destroyed two-thirds of Hamas’s fighting regiments, and they warn that the high levels of civilian casualties are ensuring that a radicalized population will live adjacent to Israel for decades to come.[5]

That should not even be remotely surprising. As the Soviets discovered in Afghanistan, as the Russians should have discovered in Ukraine, as the U.S. should have learned in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, modern war simply fails to produce an expected result. It doesn’t work except in extraordinarily limited ways.

At this writing, I do not have confirmation of social media reports that Israel’s operation in Rafah has already begun, with its beginning apparently coinciding with the Super Bowl kickoff. Israel does, however, claim to have rescued two hostages in an operation that reportedly killed at least 67 Palestinians[6] and that some may have mistaken for a full attack on Rafah.

Yasmeen Abutaleb, John Hudson, and Tyler Pager, “Biden moving closer than ever to a breach with Netanyahu over war in Gaza,” Washington Post, February 11, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/11/biden-netanyahu-closer-to-a-breach/

Liz Goodwin and Mariana Alfaro, “Aid bill for Ukraine, Israel on track to pass Senate early this week,” Washington Post, February 11, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/11/senate-aid-ukraine-israel-taiwan-aid/

James Politi and Neri Zilber, “Biden says Israel must have plan to avoid civilian casualties in Rafah,” Financial Times, February 11, 2024, https://www.ft.com/content/b00a8dcc-f8e3-4da6-a65b-280bb2289f5f

Chao Deng, Carrie Keller-Lynn, and Daniel Michaels, “Defying Biden, Netanyahu Doubles Down on Plans to Fight in Rafah,” Wall Street Journal, February 12, 2024, https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/defying-biden-israels-netanyahu-doubles-down-on-plans-to-fight-in-rafah-7b66d1dd

Emine Sinmaz, “Israel says two hostages freed in raid Gaza officials say killed 67 Palestinians,” Guardian, February 12, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/12/israeli-hostages-freed-rafah-idf-gaza-report-dozens-palestinians-killed-strikes

Russia

Ukraine


Fig. 4. “Destroyed Russian military vehicles located on the main street Khreshchatyk are seen as part of the celebration of the Independence Day of Ukraine in Kyiv, August 24.” Photograph by Gleb Garanich for Reuters, August 24, 2022,[7] fair use.

Liz Goodwin and Mariana Alfaro, “Aid bill for Ukraine, Israel on track to pass Senate early this week,” Washington Post, February 11, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/11/senate-aid-ukraine-israel-taiwan-aid/

Illiberalism


Fig. 5. Photograph by Joachim F. Thurn, August 1991, Bundesarchiv, B 145 Bild-F089030-0003, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0 DE.

Ishaan Tharoor, “The powerful lesson behind Pakistan’s stunning election result,” Washington Post, February 11, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2024/02/11/pakistan-election-results-khan-lessons/

Neoliberalism

Banking

Commercial real estate


Fig. 6. The confluence of the Allegheny and Monongahela Rivers, with the “Golden Triangle” and downtown Pittsburgh. Photograph by author, October 15, 2023.

[O]nly 26% of the $35.8 billion of office [commercial mortgage-backed securities] loans that matured in 2023 was actually paid off in full, as borrowers struggled to get refinancing or to sell their properties. . . .

The pool of troubled loans is growing, with 10.5% of CMBS office debt in distress by the end of January. Distressed loans are those that are more than 30 days late paying or have been transferred to a special servicer. This is more than triple the rate seen a year ago and is likely to rise as an additional $46.6 billion of CMBS office loans come due through 2025, CRED iQ data shows. . . .

Of a list of 220 troubled loans that have recent reappraisal data, the average valuation decline for offices is 40%, according to CRED iQ. Buildings that were revalued in 2023 have plunged almost 50%.[8]

Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) data may be a bit pessimistic in relation to the commercial real estate market as a whole,[9] but I’m going out on a limb here and guessing the fun ain’t over.[10]

Something to remember is that people working from home are not the only threat to downtowns. Brick and mortar retail has been struggling due to online shopping. At some point, you have to ask, what do downtowns, let alone the “walkable cities” some advocate, even exist for? Is it so those of us who live in cities can fight traffic by day and listen to siren symphonies and gunshot percussion by night, all night?

Carol Ryan, “What Mortgage Bonds Say About the Office Meltdown,” Wall Street Journal, February 12, 2024, https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/what-mortgage-bonds-say-about-the-office-meltdown-a231bcb3

  1. [1]Sheldon Ingram, “Pittsburgh Uber drivers to launch Valentine’s weekend strike,” WTAE, February 11, 2016, https://www.wtae.com/article/pittsburgh-uber-drivers-to-launch-valentine-s-weekend-strike/7477721↩
  2. [2]Jordan Anderson, “Cost of rent is hitting record levels, including in Pittsburgh, but not enough low-cost units are available,” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, February 10, 2024, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/social-services/2024/02/10/pittsburgh-cost-of-rent-harvard-study/stories/202402080091; Jacob Geanous, “As evictions soar in Allegheny County, a sense of urgency permeates,” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, February 11, 2024, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/social-services/2024/02/11/landlord-evictions-allegheny-county-public-housing/stories/202402090067↩
  3. [3]Agence France-Presse and Times of Israel, “20 years after its opening, destroyed Gaza airport embodies grounded peace hopes,” Times of Israel, September 12, 2018, https://www.timesofisrael.com/20-years-after-its-opening-destroyed-gaza-airport-embodies-grounded-peace-hopes/↩
  4. [4]Ben Rhodes, quoted in Yasmeen Abutaleb, John Hudson, and Tyler Pager, “Biden moving closer than ever to a breach with Netanyahu over war in Gaza,” Washington Post, February 11, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/11/biden-netanyahu-closer-to-a-breach/↩
  5. [5]Yasmeen Abutaleb, John Hudson, and Tyler Pager, “Biden moving closer than ever to a breach with Netanyahu over war in Gaza,” Washington Post, February 11, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/11/biden-netanyahu-closer-to-a-breach/↩
  6. [6]Chao Deng, Carrie Keller-Lynn, and Daniel Michaels, “Defying Biden, Netanyahu Doubles Down on Plans to Fight in Rafah,” Wall Street Journal, February 12, 2024, https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/defying-biden-israels-netanyahu-doubles-down-on-plans-to-fight-in-rafah-7b66d1dd; Emine Sinmaz, “Israel says two hostages freed in raid Gaza officials say killed 67 Palestinians,” Guardian, February 12, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/12/israeli-hostages-freed-rafah-idf-gaza-report-dozens-palestinians-killed-strikes↩
  7. [7]Reuters, “Ukraine puts destroyed Russian tanks on display in Kyiv,” August 25, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/ukraine-puts-destroyed-russian-tanks-on-idUSRTSALV9Q↩
  8. [8]Carol Ryan, “What Mortgage Bonds Say About the Office Meltdown,” Wall Street Journal, February 12, 2024, https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/what-mortgage-bonds-say-about-the-office-meltdown-a231bcb3↩
  9. [9]Carol Ryan, “What Mortgage Bonds Say About the Office Meltdown,” Wall Street Journal, February 12, 2024, https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/what-mortgage-bonds-say-about-the-office-meltdown-a231bcb3↩
  10. [10]Alena Botros, “Morgan Stanley analysts are forecasting something ‘worse than in the Great Financial Crisis’ for commercial real estate,” Fortune, April 4, 2023, https://fortune.com/2023/04/04/how-bad-commercial-real-estate-banking-crisis-svb-morgan-stanley-outlook/; Eric Platt and Harriet Agnew, “Charlie Munger: US banks are ‘full of’ bad commercial property loans,” Financial Times, April 30, 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/da9f8230-2eb1-49c5-b63a-f1507936d01b; Dror Poleg, “The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings,” Atlantic, June 7, 2023, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/commercial-real-estate-crisis-empty-offices/674310/; Akila Quinio, “Office space vacancies in US and London reach at least 20-year highs,” Financial Times, October 10, 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/698f41af-0d88-424b-80b0-241be01dac35; Konrad Putzier, “America’s Downtowns Are Empty. Fixing Them Will Be Expensive,” Wall Street Journal, October 21, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/wrecking-ball-targets-empty-downtown-offices-d0e3391; Carol Ryan, “Property Loans Are Starting to Crack,” Wall Street Journal, June 9, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-06-09-2023/card/heard-on-the-street-property-loans-are-starting-to-crack-0tae3dxXRfn1hWR5jqar; Rachel Siegel, “How the ‘urban doom loop’ could pose the next economic threat,” Washington Post, August 28, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/08/28/commercial-real-estate-economy-urban-doom-loop/; Natalie Wong et al., “The World’s Empty Office Buildings Have Become a Debt Time Bomb,” Bloomberg, June 23, 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-23/commercial-real-estate-reset-is-causing-distress-from-san-francisco-to-hong-kong↩

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