Spilling an open secret

benfell

Imperialism

Russia

Ukraine


Fig. 1. “Destroyed Russian military vehicles located on the main street Khreshchatyk are seen as part of the celebration of the Independence Day of Ukraine in Kyiv, August 24.” Photograph by Gleb Garanich for Reuters, August 24, 2022,[1] fair use.

Olaf Scholz said on Monday that he would not deliver the Taurus [missile], Berlin’s equivalent of the Storm Shadow, as it would require soldiers assisting on the ground, citing the UK and French approach with their own systems. Mr Scholz argued that following the UK would make Germany a “participant in the war”.

The comments were seen as endangering British military and diplomatic personnel on the ground.[2]

I’m assuming this was an open secret that British soldiers are helping fire Ukraine missiles.[3] Meanwhile, the Estonian prime minister, Kaja Kallas, has echoed[4] comments made earlier by Emmanuel Macron warning that western troops might yet be sent to Ukraine.[5]

While most other EU countries ruled out sending troops to Ukraine — including major players such as Germany, the U.K. and the U.S. — Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said Wednesday he was grateful for the debate that [Emmanuel] Macron had initiated, adding “nothing can be taken off the table, no option can be rejected out of hand.”

Moscow reacted angrily to Macron’s remarks, warning that deploying Western troops to Ukraine would inevitably lead to conflict between Russia and NATO.[6]

(I am trying to ignore the sentence construction that appears to include the United States in the European Union.)

What I think we are seeing here are the drumbeats of war. That doesn’t necessarily mean war itself. But it means Vladimir Putin now must weigh more seriously the possibility of a wider war—which I have inferred as his original intention, albeit one his forces were plainly ill-prepared for,[7] and which I have further inferred would go nuclear.[8] (Vladimir Putin has, just today, repeated the latter threat.[9])

I’m tempted to suggest that Putin should have been more careful what he wished for. He wanted to rebuild the Russian Empire, styling himself as Peter the Great.[10] He stumbled—badly—in Ukraine, making a laughingstock of his wider ambition. But now he faces the possibility of the war that wider ambition would certainly spark regardless.

What I think, however, is that European leaders are trying to send an intentionally ambiguous message to Putin. Some leaders warn of possible western involvement. Others dismiss that anything like that is imminent.[11] Which, taken together, admits a possibility of later involvement. How much later? Sorry, no clue, but crucially, Putin doesn’t have that clue either.

If this is indeed an attempt to influence Putin, I think it will fail. I think Putin has already demonstrated a certain patience of taking things one step at a time. I think he will infer that he can proceed in Ukraine as he wishes for now without worrying about a wider war. Tomorrow may be another day. But he’ll cross that bridge when he comes to it. And not one moment sooner.

Leila Abboud and Henry Foy, “Macron says sending western troops to Ukraine cannot be ruled out,” Financial Times, February 27, 2024, https://www.ft.com/content/83b8a80d-ab22-47fc-bbbb-6b1fd9df68ba

Laura Kayali and Claudia Chiappa, “Russia: Conflict with NATO certain if Western troops go to Ukraine,” Politico, February 27, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-conflict-with-nato-inevitable-if-western-troops-go-to-ukraine/

Joe Barnes and James Rothwell, “British soldiers helping fire Ukrainian missiles, Olaf Scholz reveals,” Telegraph, February 28, 2024, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/02/28/british-soldiers-help-ukraine-fire-missiles-olaf-scholz/

Ishaan Tharoor, “Foreign troops in Ukraine? They’re already there,” Washington Post, February 28, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2024/02/28/foreign-troops-ukraine-theyre-already-there/

Anne McElvoy and Claudia Chiappa, “‘Everything’ on table to help Ukraine beat Putin, Estonian PM says,” Politico, February 29, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-help-estonia-prime-minister-kaja-kallas/

Denis Levin, “Putin threatens NATO with nuclear strike if it sends troops to Ukraine,” Politico, February 29, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-new-speech-ukraine-war-transnistria-nato/

Israel

Palestine

07_09:10:47-2
Fig. 2. The ruins of a terminal at the Gaza airport. Image by Said Khatib (Agence France-Presse) on September 9, 2018, via the Times of Israel,[12] fair use.

I had a resident come before a council meeting who said that 80 of his family members had been killed in Gaza. I think you’re gonna have a tough time telling him that things could be worse [under Trump].[13]

I heard from people in the White House who said, ‘Hey, they’re really scared of this ‘uncommitted’ thing. We sat down with those officials and those officials admitted to us that President Biden and this White House had failed to talk about Palestinians and their lives as inherently valuable.[14]

Ibrahim Dahman, “Palestinian Authority prime minister and government resign,” CNN, February 26, 2024, https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/26/middleeast/palestinian-authority-prime-minister-resigns-intl/index.html

Nina Lakhani, “Israel is deliberately starving Palestinians, UN rights expert says,” Guardian, February 27, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/27/un-israel-food-starvation-palestinians-war-crime-genocide

Ishaan Tharoor, “Netanyahu’s ‘day after’ plan for Gaza is unviable,” Washington Post, February 27, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2024/02/27/post-war-gaza-plan-netanyahu-israel-day-after-future-abbas/

Kelsey Ables and Andrew Jeong, “Over 100,000 Michigan primary votes were ‘uncommitted.’ What does that mean?” Washington Post, February 28, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/02/28/uncommitted-votes-meaning-michigan/

Aaron Blake, “Four takeaways from the Michigan primary,” Washington Post, February 28, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/27/4-takeaways-michigan-primary/

Eric Bradner, “Biden and Trump will easily win Michigan primaries, CNN projects,” CNN, February 28, 2024, https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/27/politics/biden-trump-michigan-primaries/index.html

John Cassidy, “Michigan’s “Uncommitted” Democrats Send a Message to Biden,” New Yorker, February 28, 2024, https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/michigans-uncommitted-democrats-send-a-message-to-biden

Tony Diver, “Michigan primary results: Joe Biden wins but young and Arab Democrats rebel over Israel,” Telegraph, February 28, 2024, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/02/28/michigan-primary-results-polls-vote-republicans-trump-haley/

Caleb Ecarma, “Why Michigan’s Protest Vote Could Change Joe Biden’s Calculus: ‘There Will Be Political Consequences,’” Vanity Fair, February 28, 2024, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/michigan-vote-change-joe-biden-calculus

Lauren Fedor and James Politi, “Joe Biden faces dissent over Gaza as he wins Michigan Democratic primary,” Financial Times, February 28, 2024, https://www.ft.com/content/4dbd9253-5147-4bbd-9e09-276e48e3f799

Ron Kampeas, “‘Uncommitted’ campaign protesting Biden’s Israel support nets 100,000+ votes in Michigan primary,” Jewish Telegraphic Agency, February 28, 2024, https://www.jta.org/2024/02/27/politics/campaign-protesting-bidens-support-for-israel-celebrates-as-tens-of-thousands-vote-uncommitted-in-michigan-primary

Illiberalism

Gilead

Abortion, reproductive freedom and health


Fig. 3. Sign at demonstration in front of the U.S. Supreme Court, May 3, 2022. Janni Rye, via Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication.

Geoff Mulvihill, “About as many abortions are happening in the US monthly as before Roe was overturned, report finds,” Associated Press, February 28, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/abortion-survey-wecount-telehealth-ban-e3c7c9539462eb924ad92f30c624f311

  1. [1]Reuters, “Ukraine puts destroyed Russian tanks on display in Kyiv,” August 25, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/ukraine-puts-destroyed-russian-tanks-on-idUSRTSALV9Q↩
  2. [2]Joe Barnes and James Rothwell, “British soldiers helping fire Ukrainian missiles, Olaf Scholz reveals,” Telegraph, February 28, 2024, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/02/28/british-soldiers-help-ukraine-fire-missiles-olaf-scholz/↩
  3. [3]Joe Barnes and James Rothwell, “British soldiers helping fire Ukrainian missiles, Olaf Scholz reveals,” Telegraph, February 28, 2024, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/02/28/british-soldiers-help-ukraine-fire-missiles-olaf-scholz/↩
  4. [4]Anne McElvoy and Claudia Chiappa, “‘Everything’ on table to help Ukraine beat Putin, Estonian PM says,” Politico, February 29, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-help-estonia-prime-minister-kaja-kallas/↩
  5. [5]Leila Abboud and Henry Foy, “Macron says sending western troops to Ukraine cannot be ruled out,” Financial Times, February 27, 2024, https://www.ft.com/content/83b8a80d-ab22-47fc-bbbb-6b1fd9df68ba↩
  6. [6]Anne McElvoy and Claudia Chiappa, “‘Everything’ on table to help Ukraine beat Putin, Estonian PM says,” Politico, February 29, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-help-estonia-prime-minister-kaja-kallas/↩
  7. [7]David Benfell, “Where does Vladimir Putin stop?” Not Housebroken, November 16, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/04/where-does-vladimir-putin-stop/↩
  8. [8]David Benfell, “Nuclear survival,” Not Housebroken, August 17, 2023, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/13/nuclear-survival/↩
  9. [9]Denis Levin, “Putin threatens NATO with nuclear strike if it sends troops to Ukraine,” Politico, February 29, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-new-speech-ukraine-war-transnistria-nato/↩
  10. [10]Julian O’Shaughnessy, “I’m reconquering just like Peter the Great, insists Vladimir Putin,” Times, June 10, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/president-putin-creates-police-department-to-impose-martial-law-xqhlt79fn↩
  11. [11]Joe Barnes and James Rothwell, “British soldiers helping fire Ukrainian missiles, Olaf Scholz reveals,” Telegraph, February 28, 2024, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/02/28/british-soldiers-help-ukraine-fire-missiles-olaf-scholz/; Leila Abboud and Henry Foy, “Macron says sending western troops to Ukraine cannot be ruled out,” Financial Times, February 27, 2024, https://www.ft.com/content/83b8a80d-ab22-47fc-bbbb-6b1fd9df68ba; Laura Kayali and Claudia Chiappa, “Russia: Conflict with NATO certain if Western troops go to Ukraine,” Politico, February 27, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-conflict-with-nato-inevitable-if-western-troops-go-to-ukraine/; Anne McElvoy and Claudia Chiappa, “‘Everything’ on table to help Ukraine beat Putin, Estonian PM says,” Politico, February 29, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-help-estonia-prime-minister-kaja-kallas/; Ishaan Tharoor, “Foreign troops in Ukraine? They’re already there,” Washington Post, February 28, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2024/02/28/foreign-troops-ukraine-theyre-already-there/↩
  12. [12]Agence France-Presse and Times of Israel, “20 years after its opening, destroyed Gaza airport embodies grounded peace hopes,” Times of Israel, September 12, 2018, https://www.timesofisrael.com/20-years-after-its-opening-destroyed-gaza-airport-embodies-grounded-peace-hopes/↩
  13. [13]Abdullah Hammoud, quoted in Caleb Ecarma, “Why Michigan’s Protest Vote Could Change Joe Biden’s Calculus: ‘There Will Be Political Consequences,’” Vanity Fair, February 28, 2024, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/michigan-vote-change-joe-biden-calculus↩
  14. [14]Abbas Alawieh, quoted in Caleb Ecarma, “Why Michigan’s Protest Vote Could Change Joe Biden’s Calculus: ‘There Will Be Political Consequences,’” Vanity Fair, February 28, 2024, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/michigan-vote-change-joe-biden-calculus↩

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