There’s this old Ukrainian lady who just might get her wish

Imperialism

Russia

Ukraine

Fig. 1. “Destroyed Russian military vehicles located on the main street Khreshchatyk are seen as part of the celebration of the Independence Day of Ukraine in Kyiv, August 24.” Photograph by Gleb Garanich for Reuters, August 24, 2022,^[1] fair use.

Lorenzo Tondo, “‘Every morning, I curse Putin’: Ukrainian village’s sole resident defiant amid the ruins,” Guardian, July 15, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/15/ukrainian-village-sole-resident-defiant-amid-ruins-russia

Wagner mutiny

Fig. 1. Yevgeny Prigozhin. Screen capture from video by УлПравда ТВ, June 13, 2023, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 3.0.

[Vladimir] Putin’s version of events, which appeared in an interview with the Kommersant newspaper, was a surprise admission that the Russian president was still negotiating a takeover of the Wagner mercenary group.

Analysts have suggested that last month’s short-lived Wagner rebellion exposed Putin’s weakness and inability to manage the conflicts among the various power players in his regime. . . .

“He is signalling: ‘I am going to separate [Yevgeny] Prigozhin from this tool, Wagner and the Wagner fighters, which I still need,” [Dara Massicot] said. “I still need that tool. I don’t need the man as much.”

Yet it was surprising for Putin to make public the failed negotiations with Prigozhin, even as he sought to reprise his role as the “godfather” of various power interests in Russia.

“I don’t think this makes him look as strong as he thinks it does,” said Massicot, who described the supposed meeting as “theatre” after the failed rebellion. “This is messy.”^[2]

If we’re using a “Godfather” analogy, then Yevgeny Prigozhin is dead.

Moscow is notorious for ordering the assassinations of critics, whistleblowers and defectors, the poisonings of Alexander Litvinenko, Sergei Skripal, Alexey Navalny and Vladimir Kara-Murza being only the most prominent. From the 1940 ice-ax murder of dissident Bolshevik Leon Trotsky in Mexico onward, Russian intelligence services have demonstrated their global reach. But only recently has the West taken notice of the increasing frequency of murders by defenestration.

Over the past year, it has become even more dangerous for out-of-favor businessmen, especially those critical of the war, to get near a hotel window. Over Christmas week alone there was a spate of four deaths. Two died within days of each other at the same hotel in India—first, businessman Vladimir Bidenov , allegedly from a heart problem, and then two days later, his friend Pavel Antov , a meats mogul, politician and war critic who “fell” from his hotel window. Russian authorities quickly cremated Bidenov’s body and put out a statement that they were aware of the deaths but had found nothing suspicious about them. In 2022, there were 23 prominent Russian deaths, ranging from back-to-back double murder-suicides (in Moscow and Spain, to strokes and suicides to several bizarre accidents, such as poisoning from a toad toxin, falling out of a speedboat and fatal stair falls.^[3]

But Prigozhin is not dead, so we can’t use the “Godfather” analogy. It simply doesn’t apply.

It might formerly have applied. But it applies no longer. That’s a change and it is a change that, in Vladimir Putin’s case, can only signify weakness.

Thomas Grove, “Russia Detained Several Senior Military Officers in Wake of Wagner Mutiny,” Wall Street Journal, July 13, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-detained-several-senior-military-officers-in-wake-of-wagner-mutiny-35a696e4

Andrew Roth and Pjotr Sauer, “Putin says he tried but failed to oust Prigozhin after Wagner mutiny,” Guardian, July 14, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/14/putin-says-he-tried-but-failed-to-oust-prigozhin-after-wagner-mutiny-figters-ukarine-war

Israel

There is no way in hell I am attending the joint session address from a President whose country has banned me and denied @RashidaTlaib the ability to see her grandma.^[4]

While the number of Congress members who have announced their plans to skip [Israeli President Isaac] Herzog’s speech is far lower than the 58 who sat out of Israeli Prime Minister [Binyamin] Netanyahu’s address to Congress in 2015, a handful of other progressive lawmakers critical of Israel — including [Representatives] Andre Carson of Indiana and Mark Pocan of Wisconsin — have yet to make up their minds.^[5]

When [Binyamin] Netanyahu controversially addressed Congress in 2015 to rally opposition to then-President Barack Obama’s nuclear agreement with Iran, eight senators and 50 members of Congress, all Democrats or allied with them, did not attend.^[6]

The comparison between Binyamin Netanyahu’s and Isaac Herzog’s addresses isn’t entirely even-handed. Netanyahu’s relationship with Barack Obama was somewhat icier than it is with Joe Biden:

[Isaac] Herzog’s visit to Washington comes amid a chill in relations between President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has yet to receive an invitation to the White House. As president, Herzog serves as head of state in a historically apolitical role, though he has repeatedly called for a pause on Netanyahu’s effort to weaken Israel’s judiciary — which Biden has also criticized.^[7]

Ben Sales, “Ilhan Omar: ‘No way in hell I am attending’ Israeli president’s speech to Congress,” Jewish Telegraphic Agency, July 13, 2023, https://www.jta.org/2023/07/13/politics/ilhan-omar-no-way-in-hell-i-am-attending-israeli-presidents-speech-to-congress

Julia Gergely, “Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez joins growing list of progressives who will skip Israeli president’s speech to Congress,” Jewish Telegraphic Agency, July 14, 2023, https://www.jta.org/2023/07/14/ny/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-joins-growing-list-of-progressives-who-will-skip-israeli-presidents-speech-to-congress

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1. ^[1]Reuters, “Ukraine puts destroyed Russian tanks on display in Kyiv,” August 25, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/ukraine-puts-destroyed-russian-tanks-on-idUSRTSALV9Q↩
2. ^[2]Andrew Roth and Pjotr Sauer, “Putin says he tried but failed to oust Prigozhin after Wagner mutiny,” Guardian, July 14, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/14/putin-says-he-tried-but-failed-to-oust-prigozhin-after-wagner-mutiny-figters-ukarine-war↩
3. ^[3]Olga Lautman and Jeff Stein, “Putin’s Ukraine Folly Enables Kremlin Rivals,” Military.com, January 24, 2023, https://www.military.com/daily-news/opinions/2023/01/24/putins-ukraine-folly-enables-kremlin-rivals.html↩
4. ^[4]Ilhan Omar, quoted in Ben Sales, “Ilhan Omar: ‘No way in hell I am attending’ Israeli president’s speech to Congress,” Jewish Telegraphic Agency, July 13, 2023, https://www.jta.org/2023/07/13/politics/ilhan-omar-no-way-in-hell-i-am-attending-israeli-presidents-speech-to-congress↩
5. ^[5]Julia Gergely, “Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez joins growing list of progressives who will skip Israeli president’s speech to Congress,” Jewish Telegraphic Agency, July 14, 2023, https://www.jta.org/2023/07/14/ny/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-joins-growing-list-of-progressives-who-will-skip-israeli-presidents-speech-to-congress↩
6. ^[6]Ben Sales, “Ilhan Omar: ‘No way in hell I am attending’ Israeli president’s speech to Congress,” Jewish Telegraphic Agency, July 13, 2023, https://www.jta.org/2023/07/13/politics/ilhan-omar-no-way-in-hell-i-am-attending-israeli-presidents-speech-to-congress↩
7. ^[7]Ben Sales, “Ilhan Omar: ‘No way in hell I am attending’ Israeli president’s speech to Congress,” Jewish Telegraphic Agency, July 13, 2023, https://www.jta.org/2023/07/13/politics/ilhan-omar-no-way-in-hell-i-am-attending-israeli-presidents-speech-to-congress↩