March 2022 – Page 3 – Irregular Bullshit

The sum of bleakness for Ukraine

March 12, 2022benfell

I am expecting to work today after all. I was expecting rain yesterday, but never saw it. When I checked the Weather Underground app on my phone, the length of the period of precipitation had been shortened considerably, meaning there won’t be this continual snow all day today compounding the problem. That said, just eyeballing it, I think there’s still about five inches of snow on the stairs leading to my apartment—yes, all since I went to bed last night. I just looked out at my poor car; it’s hardly recognizable under all the snow. There might also be ice under all that, which might prompt a reconsideration.

The one thing I’d say I really miss from the old apartment is that I had a garage there. I don’t here.

Ukraine

There have been a few updates to this so, to summarize in Ukraine:

Ukraine fights alone^[1] against a numerically vastly superior Russian force invading the country that has nonetheless become bogged down in some, but not all, regions.^[2]
Reports of Russian atrocities and potential atrocities continue to mount.^[3]
Diplomatic and economic pressure against Russia are failing to diminish Vladimir Putin’s determination.^[4] To the extent they work, economic sanctions increase the likelihood that Putin will resort to a nuclear attack,^[5] but, in Russia’s case, state control means resilience,^[6] making it unlikely that Putin will be dissuaded from his invasion anytime soon.
There is no hope of a coup against Vladimir Putin.^[7] If that assessment is wrong, then what little hope there is would be with the security services,^[8] but they probably aren’t really smart enough to pull it off.^[9]
There is no hope of a popular uprising in Russia against Putin.^[10]
Nobody knows how this ends beyond a devastated Ukraine.^[11]

Somebody will have to capitulate, because everyone has staked positions they say they will not back down from,^[12] sooner or later. And right now, it looks like an extremely devastating later, with no assurance whatsoever in the meantime that Putin will not expand the war, no assurance that Putin will not launch nuclear weapons, including against North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries.^[13] Even if you’re immorally willing to sacrifice Ukraine, I’m having a hard time seeing how this status quo isn’t foolhardy and reckless.

Mark Galeotti, “How does Putin extract himself from this nightmare of his own making?” Times, March 5, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-does-putin-extract-himself-from-this-nightmare-of-his-own-making-v2ktvw08g

Toby Helm et al., “Defiant Putin warns the west: your sanctions are akin to an act of war,” Guardian, March 5, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/05/defiant-putin-warns-the-west-your-sanctions-are-akin-to-an-act-of-war

Dan Lamothe, Alex Horton, and Karoun Demirjian, “Ukraine’s military adapts tactics after enduring Russia’s initial invasion,” Washington Post, March 5, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/05/ukraine-military-strategy/

Tess McClure et al., “Mariupol to evacuate citizens after Russia declares temporary ceasefire,” Guardian, March 5, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/05/zelenskiy-lashes-out-at-nato-over-no-fly-zone-as-russian-attacks-intensify

Yaroslav Trofimov, “Ukraine, Russia Agreement on Evacuating Mariupol Civilians Collapses,” Wall Street Journal, March 5, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-and-russia-agree-to-open-corridors-for-civilians-to-evacuate-mariupol-11646470358

Kalyeena Makortoff, “Mastercard and Visa block in Russia does not stop domestic purchases,” Guardian, March 6, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/06/russians-visa-mastercard-ban-domestic-purchases-mir

Justin McCurry, Samantha Lock, and Luke Harding, “Russia targeting cities as strength of Ukraine’s resistance ‘continues to surprise’, UK says,” Guardian, March 6, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/06/biden-and-zelenskiy-discuss-more-aid-for-ukraine-as-russian-attacks-intensify

Catherine Philp, Caroline Wheeler, and Matthew Campbell, “Merciless Vladimir Putin shells Ukrainian evacuees,” Times, March 6, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/merciless-vladimir-putin-shells-ukrainian-evacuees-s98r0j50x

Yaroslav Trofimov, “Russian Artillery Kills Ukrainian Civilians Fleeing Kyiv Suburb,” Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-artillery-kills-ukrainian-civilians-fleeing-kyiv-suburb-11646575238

Yaroslav Trofimov and Alan Cullison, “Ukraine Faces Fresh Wave of Attacks Focused on Population Centers,” Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-resumes-evacuation-attempts-as-russia-presses-offensive-11646564330

Benjamin R. Young, “Putin Has a Grimly Absolute Vision of the ‘Russian World,’” Foreign Policy, March 6, 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/06/russia-putin-civilization/

Tom Ball, “This war will be a total failure, FSB whistleblower says,” Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/this-war-will-be-a-total-failure-fsb-whistleblower-says-wl2gtdl9m

Martin Farrer, “Russia Ukraine war: what we know on day 13 of the Russian invasion,” Guardian, March 7, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/08/russia-ukraine-war-what-we-know-on-day-13-of-the-russian-invasion

Jesus Jiménez, “What Is NATO and Which Countries Are Members?” New York Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/article/what-is-nato.html

Jacob Judah, “Moldova braces for ‘spectrum of threats’ as Russia bids to seize south of Ukraine,” Telegraph, March 7, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/07/moldova-braced-spectrum-threats-russia-bids-seize-south-ukraine/

Yuras Karmanau, “Crisis deepens, Ukraine accuses Moscow of ‘medieval’ tactics,” Associated Press, March 7, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-europe-evacuations-kharkiv-01693b3373cf8bcf2400ae29af992bbe

David Leonhardt, “Preventing This War,” New York Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/briefing/russia-ukraine-war-us-involvement.html

Robert Mendick and Dominic Nicholls, “Russian aircraft losses in Ukraine ‘unsustainable for more than a fortnight,’” Telegraph, March 7, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/07/russian-aircraft-losses-ukraine-unsustainable-fortnight/

David Moye, “Ukraine Expert Alexander Vindman Humiliates Marjorie Taylor Greene With Brutal Fact Check,” HuffPost, March 7, 2022, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/marjorie-taylor-greene-ukraine-alexander-vindman-twitter-fact-check_n_62263198e4b02186be2570f3

Andrew Nikiforuk, “Can Ukraine Win?” Tyee, March 7, 2022, https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/03/07/Can-Ukraine-Win/

Tina Nguyen, “The G.O.P.’s New Trump-Putin Headache,” Puck News, March 7, 2022, https://puck.news/the-g-o-p-s-new-trump-putin-headache/

Daphne Rousseau, “Ukraine parades Russian troops captured during invasion before cameras,” Times of Israel, March 7, 2022, https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-parades-russian-troops-captured-during-invasion-before-cameras/

Jordan Michael Smith, “Would Putin Really Go Nuclear? Well …,” New Republic, March 7, 2022, https://newrepublic.com/article/165634/putin-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-us-response

Aaron Blake, “Tucker Carlson goes full blame-America on Russia’s Ukraine invasion,” Washington Post, March 8, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/08/tucker-carlson-goes-full-blame-america-russias-ukraine-invasion/

Kaitlan Collins et al., “Biden announces ban on Russian energy imports,” CNN, March 8, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/08/politics/russian-energy-import-ban/index.html

Anthony Faiola, “Through Putin’s looking glass: How the Russians are seeing — or not seeing — the war in Ukraine,” Washington Post, March 8, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russian-media-state-television-ukraine/

Julia Ioffe, “The Death of Putin,” Puck News, March 8, 2022, https://puck.news/the-death-of-putin/

Yuras Karmanau, “People flee embattled Ukraine city, supplies head to another,” Associated Press, March 8, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-europe-united-nations-evacuations-62fa232dcb9d6260fef0e9c7f5386f9a

Matthew Luxmoore, Drew Hinshaw, and Nancy A. Youssef, “NATO Members Mount Huge Operation to Resupply Ukrainian Fighters,” Wall Street Journal, March 8, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-members-mount-huge-operation-to-resupply-ukrainian-fighters-11646761821

Paul Nuki, “Why Vladimir Putin may stay in power longer than we think,” Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/08/vladimir-putin-may-stay-power-longer-think/

Matt Oliver, “West scrambles for alternatives to Russian oil and gas,7rdquo; Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/03/08/inside-wests-battle-wean-russian-oil-gas/

Emily Rauhala, “E.U. presents plan to cut Russian gas imports by two-thirds this year, stops short of boycott,” Washington Post, March 8, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/eu-russian-gas/

Daniel Thomas & Michael Race, “War in Ukraine: Russia says it may cut gas supplies if oil ban goes ahead,” British Broadcasting Corporation, March 8, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60656673

Agence France-Presse, “Chernobyl power supply cut but IAEA says ‘no critical impact on safety,’” Guardian, March 9, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/09/chernobyl-power-supply-cut-completely-after-russian-seizure-warns-ukaine

Samantha Lock and Maanvi Singh, “Russia-Ukraine war update: what we know on day 15 of the Russian invasion,” Guardian, March 9, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/10/russia-ukraine-war-update-what-we-know-on-day-15-of-the-russian-invasion

David L. Stern et al., “Russian airstrike hits maternity hospital, as officials warn of fast-rising civilian toll,” Washington Post, March 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/09/russian-airstrike-hospital/

Adela Suliman and David L. Stern, “Chernobyl plant disconnected from power grid; Ukraine demands cease-fire for urgent repairs,” Washington Post, March 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/09/chernobyl-ukraine-russia-iaea-nuclear-monitoring-lost/

Victoria Ward, “‘Atrocity’ as maternity hospital in besieged Mariupol destroyed by Russian air strikes,” Telegraph, March 9, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/09/childrens-hospital-mariupol-destroyed-russian-air-strikes/

Associated Press, “Russia built an economy like a fortress but the pain is real,” March 10, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-global-trade-economy-cd99ba45b1e36bb2ab80574eeaa69e4c

Daniel Boffey, “Western Europe leaders rebuff Ukraine fast-track EU membership appeal,” Guardian, March 10, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/10/western-europe-leaders-rebuff-ukraine-fast-track-eu-membership-appeal

Vladislav Davidzon, “No Quiet Place Left on Earth,” Tablet, March 10, 2022, https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/no-quiet-place-left-on-earth

Steven L. Hall, “Putin doesn’t fear a coup by oligarchs. But he should fear his fellow spies,” Washington Post, March 10, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/03/10/putin-coup-russia-siloviki/

Julia Ioffe, “Inside Russia’s Media Black Hole,” Puck News, March 10, 2022, https://puck.news/inside-russias-media-black-hole/

Ashley Parker et al., “‘No off-ramps’: U.S. and European officials don’t see a clear endgame in Ukraine,” Washington Post, March 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/10/ukraine-end-game/

Pavel Polityuk and Tuvan Gumrukcu, “Ukraine says Russia snubs plea for humanitarian access to besieged civilians,” Reuters, March 10, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-accuses-russia-genocide-after-bombing-childrens-hospital-2022-03-10/

Reuters, “Russia, Ukraine foreign ministers meet as war enters third week,” March 10, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-accuses-russia-genocide-after-bombing-childrens-hospital-2022-03-10/

William Vaillancourt, “Fox News’ Jennifer Griffin Sets Hannity Straight on Russian Propaganda,” Daily Beast, March 10, 2022, https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-news-jennifer-griffin-sets-hannity-straight-on-russian-propaganda

Kaitlan Collins et al., “Biden calls for suspending normal trade relations with Russia and will ban imports of vodka and seafood,” CNN, March 11, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/10/politics/russia-trade-status-us-g7-eu-biden/index.html

Nick Gutteridge, “Russia ‘stockpiling bodies of Ukrainian soldiers’ to use in ‘false flag’ attack on Chernobyl,” Telegraph, March 11, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/11/vladimir-putin-planning-terror-attack-releasing-radioactive/

David Horovitz, “What does Putin think he’s doing? An expert’s primer on why he invaded, what’s next,” Times of Israel, March 11, 2022, https://www.timesofisrael.com/what-does-putin-think-hes-doing-an-experts-primer-on-why-he-invaded-whats-next/

Eric Levitz, “Ukraine Is a War Without Endgame,” New York, March 11, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/ukraine-is-a-war-without-endgame.html

David Remnick, “The Weakness of the Despot,” New Yorker, March 11, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin

Reuters, “UN rights office says it has credible reports of Russian cluster bomb use in Ukraine,” March 11, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/un-rights-office-has-credible-reports-russian-cluster-bomb-use-ukraine-2022-03-11/

^[1]Simon Lewis and Sabine Siebold, “NATO rejects Ukraine no-fly zone, says ‘not part of this’ war,” Reuters, March 4, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/nato-meets-ukraine-calls-no-fly-zone-hinder-russia-2022-03-04/↩
^[2]Mark Galeotti, “How does Putin extract himself from this nightmare of his own making?” Times, March 5, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-does-putin-extract-himself-from-this-nightmare-of-his-own-making-v2ktvw08g; Dan Lamothe, Alex Horton, and Karoun Demirjian, “Ukraine’s military adapts tactics after enduring Russia’s initial invasion,” Washington Post, March 5, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/05/ukraine-military-strategy/; Eric Levitz, “Putin’s War Looks Increasingly Insane,” New York, March 4, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/putins-war-looks-increasingly-insane.html; Justin McCurry, Samantha Lock, and Luke Harding, “Russia targeting cities as strength of Ukraine’s resistance ‘continues to surprise’, UK says,” Guardian, March 6, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/06/biden-and-zelenskiy-discuss-more-aid-for-ukraine-as-russian-attacks-intensify; Ashley Parker et al., “‘No off-ramps’: U.S. and European officials don’t see a clear endgame in Ukraine,” Washington Post, March 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/10/ukraine-end-game/; David Remnick, “The Weakness of the Despot,” New Yorker, March 11, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin ↩
^[3]Agence France-Presse, “Chernobyl power supply cut but IAEA says ‘no critical impact on safety,’” Guardian, March 9, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/09/chernobyl-power-supply-cut-completely-after-russian-seizure-warns-ukaine; Nick Gutteridge, “Russia ‘stockpiling bodies of Ukrainian soldiers’ to use in ‘false flag’ attack on Chernobyl,” Telegraph, March 11, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/11/vladimir-putin-planning-terror-attack-releasing-radioactive/; Jim Heintz, Yuras Karmanau, and Mstyslav Chernov, “Fire out at key Ukraine nuclear plant, no radiation released,” Associated Press, March 4, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-joe-biden-kyiv-business-33b6c1709dee937750f95c6786832840; Yuras Karmanau, “Crisis deepens, Ukraine accuses Moscow of ‘medieval’ tactics,” Associated Press, March 7, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-europe-evacuations-kharkiv-01693b3373cf8bcf2400ae29af992bbe; James Kilner, “Russia ‘may be preparing to use chemical weapons in Ukraine,’” Telegraph, March 4, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/04/russia-may-ready-use-chemical-weapons-ukraine/; Justin McCurry, Samantha Lock, and Luke Harding, “Russia targeting cities as strength of Ukraine’s resistance ‘continues to surprise’, UK says,” Guardian, March 6, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/06/biden-and-zelenskiy-discuss-more-aid-for-ukraine-as-russian-attacks-intensify; Catherine Philp, Caroline Wheeler, and Matthew Campbell, “Merciless Vladimir Putin shells Ukrainian evacuees,” Times, March 6, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/merciless-vladimir-putin-shells-ukrainian-evacuees-s98r0j50x; Pavel Polityuk and Tuvan Gumrukcu, “Ukraine says Russia snubs plea for humanitarian access to besieged civilians,” Reuters, March 10, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-accuses-russia-genocide-after-bombing-childrens-hospital-2022-03-10/; Reuters, “UN rights office says it has credible reports of Russian cluster bomb use in Ukraine,” March 11, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/un-rights-office-has-credible-reports-russian-cluster-bomb-use-ukraine-2022-03-11/; Jim Sleeper, “Too much reality: Putin’s Ukraine invasion summons Europe’s dark past,” Tikkun, March 2, 2022, https://www.tikkun.org/too-much-reality-putins-ukraine-invasion-summons-europes-dark-past/; Jordan Michael Smith, “Would Putin Really Go Nuclear? Well …,” New Republic, March 7, 2022, https://newrepublic.com/article/165634/putin-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-us-response; David L. Stern et al., “Russian airstrike hits maternity hospital, as officials warn of fast-rising civilian toll,” Washington Post, March 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/09/russian-airstrike-hospital/; Adela Suliman and David L. Stern, “Chernobyl plant disconnected from power grid; Ukraine demands cease-fire for urgent repairs,” Washington Post, March 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/09/chernobyl-ukraine-russia-iaea-nuclear-monitoring-lost/; Yaroslav Trofimov, “Ukraine, Russia Agreement on Evacuating Mariupol Civilians Collapses,” Wall Street Journal, March 5, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-and-russia-agree-to-open-corridors-for-civilians-to-evacuate-mariupol-11646470358; Yaroslav Trofimov, “Russian Artillery Kills Ukrainian Civilians Fleeing Kyiv Suburb,” Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-artillery-kills-ukrainian-civilians-fleeing-kyiv-suburb-11646575238; Yaroslav Trofimov and Alan Cullison, “Ukraine Faces Fresh Wave of Attacks Focused on Population Centers,” Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-resumes-evacuation-attempts-as-russia-presses-offensive-11646564330; Victoria Ward, “‘Atrocity’ as maternity hospital in besieged Mariupol destroyed by Russian air strikes,” Telegraph, March 9, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/09/childrens-hospital-mariupol-destroyed-russian-air-strikes/; Robin Wright, “What Does Putin’s Nuclear Sabre Rattling Mean?” New Yorker, March 1, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-does-putins-nuclear-sabre-rattling-mean ↩
^[4]Ashley Parker et al., “‘No off-ramps’: U.S. and European officials don’t see a clear endgame in Ukraine,” Washington Post, March 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/10/ukraine-end-game/↩
^[5]Eric Levitz, “Ukraine Is a War Without Endgame,” New York, March 11, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/ukraine-is-a-war-without-endgame.html ↩
^[6]Associated Press, “Russia built an economy like a fortress but the pain is real,” March 10, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-global-trade-economy-cd99ba45b1e36bb2ab80574eeaa69e4c ↩
^[7]Mark Galeotti, “How does Putin extract himself from this nightmare of his own making?” Times, March 5, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-does-putin-extract-himself-from-this-nightmare-of-his-own-making-v2ktvw08g; Julia Ioffe, “Europe’s 9/11,” Puck News, March 3, 2022, https://puck.news/europes-9-11/; Paul Nuki, “Why Vladimir Putin may stay in power longer than we think,” Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/08/vladimir-putin-may-stay-power-longer-think/↩
^[8]Steven L. Hall, “Putin doesn’t fear a coup by oligarchs. But he should fear his fellow spies,” Washington Post, March 10, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/03/10/putin-coup-russia-siloviki/↩
^[9]David Remnick, “The Weakness of the Despot,” New Yorker, March 11, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin ↩
^[10]Julia Ioffe, “Inside Russia’s Media Black Hole,” Puck News, March 10, 2022, https://puck.news/inside-russias-media-black-hole/↩
^[11]Eric Levitz, “Ukraine Is a War Without Endgame,” New York, March 11, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/ukraine-is-a-war-without-endgame.html; Ashley Parker et al., “‘No off-ramps’: U.S. and European officials don’t see a clear endgame in Ukraine,” Washington Post, March 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/10/ukraine-end-game/↩
^[12]Ashley Parker et al., “‘No off-ramps’: U.S. and European officials don’t see a clear endgame in Ukraine,” Washington Post, March 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/10/ukraine-end-game/↩
^[13]David Benfell, “Where does Vladimir Putin stop?” Not Housebroken, March 10, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/04/where-does-vladimir-putin-stop/; Eric Levitz, “Ukraine Is a War Without Endgame,” New York, March 11, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/ukraine-is-a-war-without-endgame.html ↩

An end darker than Donald Trump’s soul

March 11, 2022benfell

I think I’m going to have to take tomorrow off. Three to five inches of snow are expected^[1] and I’m not expecting safe driving within the city of Pittsburgh.

My mother will likely be dismayed. I’d really been suckered into thinking spring had arrived, even if the trees that flower, clearly smarter than I am, had not yet come into bloom. The three winters I’ve been here since moving back east, the two I’d been here as a kid, the five in all have evidently been insufficient to teach me.

Ukraine

To summarize in Ukraine:

Ukraine fights alone^[2] against a numerically vastly superior Russian force invading the country that has nonetheless become bogged down in some regions.^[3]
Reports of Russian atrocities and potential atrocities continue to mount.^[4]
Diplomatic and economic pressure against Russia are failing to diminish Vladimir Putin’s determination.^[5]
There is no hope of a coup against Vladimir Putin.^[6]
There is no hope of a popular uprising in Russia against Putin.^[7]
Nobody knows how this ends beyond a devastated Ukraine.^[8]

Somebody will have to capitulate, because everyone has staked positions they say they will not back down from,^[9] sooner or later. And right now, it looks like an extremely devastating later, with no assurance whatsoever in the meantime that Putin will not expand the war, no assurance that Putin will not launch nuclear weapons, including against North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries.^[10] Even if you’re immorally willing to sacrifice Ukraine, I’m having a hard time seeing how this status quo isn’t foolhardy and reckless.

Jim Heintz, Yuras Karmanau, and Mstyslav Chernov, “Fire out at key Ukraine nuclear plant, no radiation released,” Associated Press, March 4, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-joe-biden-kyiv-business-33b6c1709dee937750f95c6786832840

James Kilner, “Russia ‘may be preparing to use chemical weapons in Ukraine,’” Telegraph, March 4, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/04/russia-may-ready-use-chemical-weapons-ukraine/

Eric Levitz, “Putin’s War Looks Increasingly Insane,” New York, March 4, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/putins-war-looks-increasingly-insane.html

Simon Lewis and Sabine Siebold, “NATO rejects Ukraine no-fly zone, says ‘not part of this’ war,” Reuters, March 4, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/nato-meets-ukraine-calls-no-fly-zone-hinder-russia-2022-03-04/

Reuters, “Ukraine and Russia: What you need to know right now,” March 4, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-russia-what-you-need-know-right-now-2022-03-03/

Benjamin R. Young, “Putin Has a Grimly Absolute Vision of the ‘Russian World,’” Foreign Policy, March 6, 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/06/russia-putin-civilization/

Tom Ball, “This war will be a total failure, FSB whistleblower says,” Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/this-war-will-be-a-total-failure-fsb-whistleblower-says-wl2gtdl9m

Jesus Jiménez, “What Is NATO and Which Countries Are Members?” New York Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/article/what-is-nato.html

David Leonhardt, “Preventing This War,” New York Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/briefing/russia-ukraine-war-us-involvement.html

Tina Nguyen, “The G.O.P.’s New Trump-Putin Headache,” Puck News, March 7, 2022, https://puck.news/the-g-o-p-s-new-trump-putin-headache/

Jordan Michael Smith, “Would Putin Really Go Nuclear? Well …,” New Republic, March 7, 2022, https://newrepublic.com/article/165634/putin-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-us-response

Kaitlan Collins et al., “Biden announces ban on Russian energy imports,” CNN, March 8, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/08/politics/russian-energy-import-ban/index.html

Julia Ioffe, “The Death of Putin,” Puck News, March 8, 2022, https://puck.news/the-death-of-putin/

Paul Nuki, “Why Vladimir Putin may stay in power longer than we think,” Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/08/vladimir-putin-may-stay-power-longer-think/

Matt Oliver, “West scrambles for alternatives to Russian oil and gas,7rdquo; Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/03/08/inside-wests-battle-wean-russian-oil-gas/

Julia Ioffe, “Inside Russia’s Media Black Hole,” Puck News, March 10, 2022, https://puck.news/inside-russias-media-black-hole/

^[1]Julia Felton, “Winter’s last gasp? Here is the latest snow forecast,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, March 11, 2022, https://triblive.com/local/regional/winders-last-gasp-here-is-the-latest-snow-forecast/↩
^[2]Simon Lewis and Sabine Siebold, “NATO rejects Ukraine no-fly zone, says ‘not part of this’ war,” Reuters, March 4, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/nato-meets-ukraine-calls-no-fly-zone-hinder-russia-2022-03-04/↩
^[3]Mark Galeotti, “How does Putin extract himself from this nightmare of his own making?” Times, March 5, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-does-putin-extract-himself-from-this-nightmare-of-his-own-making-v2ktvw08g; Dan Lamothe, Alex Horton, and Karoun Demirjian, “Ukraine’s military adapts tactics after enduring Russia’s initial invasion,” Washington Post, March 5, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/05/ukraine-military-strategy/; Eric Levitz, “Putin’s War Looks Increasingly Insane,” New York, March 4, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/putins-war-looks-increasingly-insane.html; Justin McCurry, Samantha Lock, and Luke Harding, “Russia targeting cities as strength of Ukraine’s resistance ‘continues to surprise’, UK says,” Guardian, March 6, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/06/biden-and-zelenskiy-discuss-more-aid-for-ukraine-as-russian-attacks-intensify; Ashley Parker et al., “‘No off-ramps’: U.S. and European officials don’t see a clear endgame in Ukraine,” Washington Post, March 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/10/ukraine-end-game/↩
^[4]Agence France-Presse, “Chernobyl power supply cut but IAEA says ‘no critical impact on safety,’” Guardian, March 9, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/09/chernobyl-power-supply-cut-completely-after-russian-seizure-warns-ukaine; Jim Heintz, Yuras Karmanau, and Mstyslav Chernov, “Fire out at key Ukraine nuclear plant, no radiation released,” Associated Press, March 4, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-joe-biden-kyiv-business-33b6c1709dee937750f95c6786832840; Yuras Karmanau, “Crisis deepens, Ukraine accuses Moscow of ‘medieval’ tactics,” Associated Press, March 7, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-europe-evacuations-kharkiv-01693b3373cf8bcf2400ae29af992bbe; James Kilner, “Russia ‘may be preparing to use chemical weapons in Ukraine,’” Telegraph, March 4, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/04/russia-may-ready-use-chemical-weapons-ukraine/; Justin McCurry, Samantha Lock, and Luke Harding, “Russia targeting cities as strength of Ukraine’s resistance ‘continues to surprise’, UK says,” Guardian, March 6, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/06/biden-and-zelenskiy-discuss-more-aid-for-ukraine-as-russian-attacks-intensify; Catherine Philp, Caroline Wheeler, and Matthew Campbell, “Merciless Vladimir Putin shells Ukrainian evacuees,” Times, March 6, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/merciless-vladimir-putin-shells-ukrainian-evacuees-s98r0j50x; Pavel Polityuk and Tuvan Gumrukcu, “Ukraine says Russia snubs plea for humanitarian access to besieged civilians,” Reuters, March 10, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-accuses-russia-genocide-after-bombing-childrens-hospital-2022-03-10/; Jim Sleeper, “Too much reality: Putin’s Ukraine invasion summons Europe’s dark past,” Tikkun, March 2, 2022, https://www.tikkun.org/too-much-reality-putins-ukraine-invasion-summons-europes-dark-past/; Jordan Michael Smith, “Would Putin Really Go Nuclear? Well …,” New Republic, March 7, 2022, https://newrepublic.com/article/165634/putin-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-us-response; David L. Stern et al., “Russian airstrike hits maternity hospital, as officials warn of fast-rising civilian toll,” Washington Post, March 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/09/russian-airstrike-hospital/; Adela Suliman and David L. Stern, “Chernobyl plant disconnected from power grid; Ukraine demands cease-fire for urgent repairs,” Washington Post, March 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/09/chernobyl-ukraine-russia-iaea-nuclear-monitoring-lost/; Yaroslav Trofimov, “Ukraine, Russia Agreement on Evacuating Mariupol Civilians Collapses,” Wall Street Journal, March 5, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-and-russia-agree-to-open-corridors-for-civilians-to-evacuate-mariupol-11646470358; Yaroslav Trofimov, “Russian Artillery Kills Ukrainian Civilians Fleeing Kyiv Suburb,” Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-artillery-kills-ukrainian-civilians-fleeing-kyiv-suburb-11646575238; Yaroslav Trofimov and Alan Cullison, “Ukraine Faces Fresh Wave of Attacks Focused on Population Centers,” Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-resumes-evacuation-attempts-as-russia-presses-offensive-11646564330; Victoria Ward, “‘Atrocity’ as maternity hospital in besieged Mariupol destroyed by Russian air strikes,” Telegraph, March 9, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/09/childrens-hospital-mariupol-destroyed-russian-air-strikes/; Robin Wright, “What Does Putin’s Nuclear Sabre Rattling Mean?” New Yorker, March 1, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-does-putins-nuclear-sabre-rattling-mean ↩
^[5]Ashley Parker et al., “‘No off-ramps’: U.S. and European officials don’t see a clear endgame in Ukraine,” Washington Post, March 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/10/ukraine-end-game/↩
^[6]Mark Galeotti, “How does Putin extract himself from this nightmare of his own making?” Times, March 5, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-does-putin-extract-himself-from-this-nightmare-of-his-own-making-v2ktvw08g; Julia Ioffe, “Europe’s 9/11,” Puck News, March 3, 2022, https://puck.news/europes-9-11/↩
^[7]Julia Ioffe, “Inside Russia’s Media Black Hole,” Puck News, March 10, 2022, https://puck.news/inside-russias-media-black-hole/↩
^[8]Ashley Parker et al., “‘No off-ramps’: U.S. and European officials don’t see a clear endgame in Ukraine,” Washington Post, March 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/10/ukraine-end-game/↩
^[9]Ashley Parker et al., “‘No off-ramps’: U.S. and European officials don’t see a clear endgame in Ukraine,” Washington Post, March 11, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/10/ukraine-end-game/↩
^[10]David Benfell, “Where does Vladimir Putin stop?” Not Housebroken, March 10, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/04/where-does-vladimir-putin-stop/↩

Hate, Amerikkkan Style

March 10, 2022benfell

Donald Trump

Coup attempt

There is a new blog post entitled, “My 2024 forecast.”

Academic freedom

Tim Craig, “Florida Legislature passes bill that limits how schools and workplaces teach about race and identity,” Washington Post, March 10, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/03/10/florida-legislature-passes-anti-woke-bill/

Hate

Candy Woodall, “Pa. hate thrives while bills languish,” Erie Times-News, March 8, 2022, https://erietimes-pa.newsmemory.com?selDate=20220308&goTo=A01&artid=6

Darryl Fears, “Redlining means 45 million Americans are breathing dirtier air, 50 years after it ended,” Washington Post, March 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/03/09/redlining-pollution-environmental-justice/

Police White supremacist gangs

Sam Stanton, “Sacramento police officer charged with filing false reports fighting her firing in court,” Sacramento Bee, March 9, 2022, https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article259231135.html

Work

Justin Lahart, “There Will Never Be Enough Workers,” Wall Street Journal, March 9, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/there-will-never-be-enough-workers-11646848256

Helaine Olen, “How to solve the worker shortage? Improve pay and other conditions,” Washington Post, March 10, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/10/worker-shortage-familiar-story-low-pay-poor-conditions/

Ukraine

Con Coughlin, “The oligarchs are turning on Russia’s new tsar,” Telegraph, March 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/03/oligarchs-turning-russias-new-tsar/

James Crisp, “Russian convoy’s advance on Kyiv deflated by flat tyres and Ukrainian mud,” Telegraph, March 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/03/russian-convoys-advance-kyiv-hampered-cheap-tyres-ukrainian/

Julia Ioffe, “Europe’s 9/11,” Puck News, March 3, 2022, https://puck.news/europes-9-11/

Dave Lawler, “Russia agreed to open “humanitarian corridors” for fleeing civilians: Ukraine official,” Axios, March 3, 2022, https://www.axios.com/russia-ukraine-peace-talks-belarus-938faa52-5f99-41a3-aae1-1dcd42c9583c.html

Roland Oliphant, Gordon Rayner, and Lucy Fisher, “Vladimir Putin set to ‘cut Ukraine in two’ as key city of Kherson falls to Russians,” Telegraph, March 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/02/vladimir-putin-set-cut-ukraine-two-key-city-kherson-falls-russians/

Sacha Pfeiffer, Lauren Hodges, and Christopher Intagliata, “Former NATO commander says a no-fly zone over Ukraine must be on the table,” National Public Radio, March 3, 2022, https://www.npr.org/2022/03/03/1084310587/former-nato-commander-says-a-no-fly-zone-over-ukraine-must-be-on-the-table

Pjotr Sauer, “‘My future is taken away from me’: Russians flee to escape consequences of Moscow’s war,” Guardian, March 3, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/people-leaving-russia-ukraine-war

Michael Schwirtz and Richard Pérez-Peña, “Kremlin Vows Victory in Ukraine as Refugees Swell to One Million,” New York Times, March 3, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/world/europe/russia-ukraine-invasion-kremlin.html

David L. Stern, “Russia claims control of vital port city in Ukraine, as convoy outside Kyiv remains stalled,” Washington Post, March 3, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/02/ukraine-battlefield-military-offensive-kherson/

Eric Levitz, “Putin’s War Looks Increasingly Insane,” New York, March 4, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/putins-war-looks-increasingly-insane.html

Reuters, “Ukraine and Russia: What you need to know right now,” March 4, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-russia-what-you-need-know-right-now-2022-03-03/

Benjamin R. Young, “Putin Has a Grimly Absolute Vision of the ‘Russian World,’” Foreign Policy, March 6, 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/06/russia-putin-civilization/

Tom Ball, “This war will be a total failure, FSB whistleblower says,” Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/this-war-will-be-a-total-failure-fsb-whistleblower-says-wl2gtdl9m

Jesus Jiménez, “What Is NATO and Which Countries Are Members?” New York Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/article/what-is-nato.html

Tina Nguyen, “The G.O.P.’s New Trump-Putin Headache,” Puck News, March 7, 2022, https://puck.news/the-g-o-p-s-new-trump-putin-headache/

Jordan Michael Smith, “Would Putin Really Go Nuclear? Well …,” New Republic, March 7, 2022, https://newrepublic.com/article/165634/putin-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-us-response

Kaitlan Collins et al., “Biden announces ban on Russian energy imports,” CNN, March 8, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/08/politics/russian-energy-import-ban/index.html

Julia Ioffe, “The Death of Putin,” Puck News, March 8, 2022, https://puck.news/the-death-of-putin/

Paul Nuki, “Why Vladimir Putin may stay in power longer than we think,” Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/08/vladimir-putin-may-stay-power-longer-think/

Matt Oliver, “West scrambles for alternatives to Russian oil and gas,7rdquo; Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/03/08/inside-wests-battle-wean-russian-oil-gas/

Julia Ioffe, “Inside Russia’s Media Black Hole,” Puck News, March 10, 2022, https://puck.news/inside-russias-media-black-hole/

Donald Trump’s effort to speed up the 2020 U.S. Census likely had its desired effect

March 10, 2022benfell

Yosemite

Carmen Kohlruss, “Yosemite will soon oust homeowners near the national park. Residents call it ‘heartless,’” Sacramento Bee, March 10, 2022, https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/article259062823.html

Right-wing dictatorship project

Right now, this is the entire story:

The estimated number of “omissions” is 2.8 million higher than for the 2010 Census. The 2020 count was beset by challenges including natural disasters, the pandemic and efforts by the Trump administration to speed it up.^[1]

I’ll have to come back to this as Tara Bahrampour is still working on it. But the Trump administration was seemingly determined to undercount migrants^[2] and it’s a pretty safe bet that migrants and people of color were disproportionately undercounted.

Tara Bahrampour, “2020 Census missed 18.8 million people, Census Bureau estimates,” Washington Post, March 10, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/03/10/2020-census-undercount-report/

Ukraine

Con Coughlin, “The oligarchs are turning on Russia’s new tsar,” Telegraph, March 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/03/oligarchs-turning-russias-new-tsar/

Julia Ioffe, “Europe’s 9/11,” Puck News, March 3, 2022, https://puck.news/europes-9-11/

Eric Levitz, “Putin’s War Looks Increasingly Insane,” New York, March 4, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/putins-war-looks-increasingly-insane.html

Reuters, “Ukraine and Russia: What you need to know right now,” March 4, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-russia-what-you-need-know-right-now-2022-03-03/

Benjamin R. Young, “Putin Has a Grimly Absolute Vision of the ‘Russian World,’” Foreign Policy, March 6, 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/06/russia-putin-civilization/

Tom Ball, “This war will be a total failure, FSB whistleblower says,” Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/this-war-will-be-a-total-failure-fsb-whistleblower-says-wl2gtdl9m

Jesus Jiménez, “What Is NATO and Which Countries Are Members?” New York Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/article/what-is-nato.html

Tina Nguyen, “The G.O.P.’s New Trump-Putin Headache,” Puck News, March 7, 2022, https://puck.news/the-g-o-p-s-new-trump-putin-headache/

Jordan Michael Smith, “Would Putin Really Go Nuclear? Well …,” New Republic, March 7, 2022, https://newrepublic.com/article/165634/putin-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-us-response

Kaitlan Collins et al., “Biden announces ban on Russian energy imports,” CNN, March 8, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/08/politics/russian-energy-import-ban/index.html

Julia Ioffe, “The Death of Putin,” Puck News, March 8, 2022, https://puck.news/the-death-of-putin/

Paul Nuki, “Why Vladimir Putin may stay in power longer than we think,” Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/08/vladimir-putin-may-stay-power-longer-think/

Matt Oliver, “West scrambles for alternatives to Russian oil and gas,7rdquo; Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/03/08/inside-wests-battle-wean-russian-oil-gas/

^[1]Tara Bahrampour, “2020 Census missed 18.8 million people, Census Bureau estimates,” Washington Post, March 10, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/03/10/2020-census-undercount-report/↩
^[2]Tara Bahrampour and Robert Barnes, “Despite Trump administration denials, new evidence suggests census citizenship question was crafted to benefit white Republicans,” Washington Post, May 30, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/social-issues/despite-trump-administration-denials-new-evidence-suggests-census-citizenship-question-was-crafted-to-benefit-white-republicans/2019/05/30/ca188dea-82eb-11e9-933d-7501070ee669_story.html; Aaron Blake, “Trump just admitted something he probably shouldn’t have about the census citizenship question,” Washington Post, July 5, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/07/05/trump-just-admitted-something-he-probably-shouldnt-have-about-census-citizenship-question/↩

Student loan freeze might be extended again

March 9, 2022benfell

Student loans

You’re kidding me, right? You’ve got to be kidding me. If the Department of Education really can’t figure out how to resume student loan repayments,^[1] they should just forgive the damn things.

Michael Stratford, “Biden officials signal they might extend student loan payment freeze,” Politico, March 9, 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/09/biden-student-loan-payment-freeze-00015439

Work

And they’re still whining!^[2]

Justin Lahart, “There Will Never Be Enough Workers,” Wall Street Journal, March 9, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/there-will-never-be-enough-workers-11646848256

Hate, Fossil fuels

. . ., Northeast

Pittsburgh

Gentrification

Tawnya Panizzi, “Tarentum residents will face instant penalty for unsafe, eyesore properties,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, March 9, 2022, https://triblive.com/local/valley-news-dispatch/tarentum-residents-will-face-instant-penalty-for-unsafe-eyesore-properties/

Ukraine

Some might remember an allegation that invading Iraqi soldiers removed babies from hospital incubators in Kuwait and then took away the incubators. Human rights organizations failed to verify the story and, despite U.S. and Kuwaiti official insistence on the story’s veracity, at least one human rights organization declared it false.^[3] Today’s story alleges that Russian forces bombed a Ukrainian maternity hospital.^[4] I’m assuming today’s story is true. But tankies will surely cite the incubator story to assert that the maternity hospital story is false.

More to the point, the incubator story was part of the George H. W. Bush administration’s rationale for the war to liberate Kuwait, which Saddam Hussein had asserted was Iraq’s long lost 19th province.^[5] So the question today, as alleged Russian atrocities and potential atrocities mount,^[6] is, is anybody besides Ukraine assembling a case for the West to risk a possibly nuclear war?^[7]

Christine Emba, “The war in Ukraine doesn’t need your ‘likes,’” Washington Post, March 2, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/02/ukraine-russia-social-media-unseemly-war-fandom/

Alexander Graef, “Four ways the Russia-Ukraine war could end – from palace coup to Pyrrhic victory,” Telegraph, March 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/02/four-ways-russia-ukraine-war-could-end-palace-coup-pyrrhic/

Luke Harding, Jon Henley, and Martin Farrer, “Russia aims to erase Ukraine, says Zelenskiy, as bombardment intensifies,” Guardian, March 2, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/02/ukraine-cities-bombardment-russia-attack-kyiv-kharkiv-russian-war-invasion

Jim Sleeper, “Too much reality: Putin’s Ukraine invasion summons Europe’s dark past,” Tikkun, March 2, 2022, https://www.tikkun.org/too-much-reality-putins-ukraine-invasion-summons-europes-dark-past/

Con Coughlin, “The oligarchs are turning on Russia’s new tsar,” Telegraph, March 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/03/oligarchs-turning-russias-new-tsar/

Julia Ioffe, “Europe’s 9/11,” Puck News, March 3, 2022, https://puck.news/europes-9-11/

Eric Levitz, “Putin’s War Looks Increasingly Insane,” New York, March 4, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/putins-war-looks-increasingly-insane.html

Reuters, “Ukraine and Russia: What you need to know right now,” March 4, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-russia-what-you-need-know-right-now-2022-03-03/

Benjamin R. Young, “Putin Has a Grimly Absolute Vision of the ‘Russian World,’” Foreign Policy, March 6, 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/06/russia-putin-civilization/

Tom Ball, “This war will be a total failure, FSB whistleblower says,” Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/this-war-will-be-a-total-failure-fsb-whistleblower-says-wl2gtdl9m

Jesus Jiménez, “What Is NATO and Which Countries Are Members?” New York Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/article/what-is-nato.html

Tina Nguyen, “The G.O.P.’s New Trump-Putin Headache,” Puck News, March 7, 2022, https://puck.news/the-g-o-p-s-new-trump-putin-headache/

Jordan Michael Smith, “Would Putin Really Go Nuclear? Well …,” New Republic, March 7, 2022, https://newrepublic.com/article/165634/putin-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-us-response

Kaitlan Collins et al., “Biden announces ban on Russian energy imports,” CNN, March 8, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/08/politics/russian-energy-import-ban/index.html

Julia Ioffe, “The Death of Putin,” Puck News, March 8, 2022, https://puck.news/the-death-of-putin/

Paul Nuki, “Why Vladimir Putin may stay in power longer than we think,” Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/08/vladimir-putin-may-stay-power-longer-think/

Matt Oliver, “West scrambles for alternatives to Russian oil and gas,7rdquo; Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/03/08/inside-wests-battle-wean-russian-oil-gas/

^[1]Michael Stratford, “Biden officials signal they might extend student loan payment freeze,” Politico, March 9, 2022, https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/09/biden-student-loan-payment-freeze-00015439 ↩
^[2]Justin Lahart, “There Will Never Be Enough Workers,” Wall Street Journal, March 9, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/there-will-never-be-enough-workers-11646848256 ↩
^[3]Nick B. Williams, Jr., “MIDEAST: Kuwait Story of Babies Removed From Incubators Refuses to Die,” Los Angeles Times, March 6, 1992, https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1992-03-06-mn-3337-story.html ↩
^[4]Victoria Ward, “‘Atrocity’ as maternity hospital in besieged Mariupol destroyed by Russian air strikes,” Telegraph, March 9, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/09/childrens-hospital-mariupol-destroyed-russian-air-strikes/↩
^[5]Mark Fineman, “Iraq Remaps Kuwait as Province 19,” Los Angeles Times, August 29, 1990, https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-08-29-mn-176-story.html ↩
^[6]Agence France-Presse, “Chernobyl power supply cut but IAEA says ‘no critical impact on safety,’” Guardian, March 9, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/09/chernobyl-power-supply-cut-completely-after-russian-seizure-warns-ukaine; Jim Heintz, Yuras Karmanau, and Mstyslav Chernov, “Fire out at key Ukraine nuclear plant, no radiation released,” Associated Press, March 4, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-joe-biden-kyiv-business-33b6c1709dee937750f95c6786832840; James Kilner, “Russia ‘may be preparing to use chemical weapons in Ukraine,’” Telegraph, March 4, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/04/russia-may-ready-use-chemical-weapons-ukraine/; Justin McCurry, Samantha Lock, and Luke Harding, “Russia targeting cities as strength of Ukraine’s resistance ‘continues to surprise’, UK says,” Guardian, March 6, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/06/biden-and-zelenskiy-discuss-more-aid-for-ukraine-as-russian-attacks-intensify; Catherine Philp, Caroline Wheeler, and Matthew Campbell, “Merciless Vladimir Putin shells Ukrainian evacuees,” Times, March 6, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/merciless-vladimir-putin-shells-ukrainian-evacuees-s98r0j50x; Jim Sleeper, “Too much reality: Putin’s Ukraine invasion summons Europe’s dark past,” Tikkun, March 2, 2022, https://www.tikkun.org/too-much-reality-putins-ukraine-invasion-summons-europes-dark-past/; Jordan Michael Smith, “Would Putin Really Go Nuclear? Well …,” New Republic, March 7, 2022, https://newrepublic.com/article/165634/putin-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-us-response; Adela Suliman and David L. Stern, “Chernobyl plant disconnected from power grid; Ukraine demands cease-fire for urgent repairs,” Washington Post, March 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/09/chernobyl-ukraine-russia-iaea-nuclear-monitoring-lost/; Yaroslav Trofimov, “Ukraine, Russia Agreement on Evacuating Mariupol Civilians Collapses,” Wall Street Journal, March 5, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-and-russia-agree-to-open-corridors-for-civilians-to-evacuate-mariupol-11646470358; Yaroslav Trofimov, “Russian Artillery Kills Ukrainian Civilians Fleeing Kyiv Suburb,” Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-artillery-kills-ukrainian-civilians-fleeing-kyiv-suburb-11646575238; Yaroslav Trofimov and Alan Cullison, “Ukraine Faces Fresh Wave of Attacks Focused on Population Centers,” Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-resumes-evacuation-attempts-as-russia-presses-offensive-11646564330; Victoria Ward, “‘Atrocity’ as maternity hospital in besieged Mariupol destroyed by Russian air strikes,” Telegraph, March 9, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/09/childrens-hospital-mariupol-destroyed-russian-air-strikes/; Robin Wright, “What Does Putin’s Nuclear Sabre Rattling Mean?” New Yorker, March 1, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-does-putins-nuclear-sabre-rattling-mean ↩
^[7]Simon Lewis and Sabine Siebold, “NATO rejects Ukraine no-fly zone, says ‘not part of this’ war,” Reuters, March 4, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/nato-meets-ukraine-calls-no-fly-zone-hinder-russia-2022-03-04/↩

Truckers driving in circles

March 8, 2022benfell

She worked for hours. I think I’ve told you the story before about the young lady I picked up at Heinz Lofts (the old Heinz factory in Pittsburgh, now converted to apartments) who was sobbing uncontrollably as I drove her to her destination. I thought she’d been through a break-up with her boyfriend or something like that but it turned out it’d been her first day on the job as a housecleaner and she’d worked for eight hours trying to clean an apartment.

The last time I tried to do any housecleaning, I was in tears after five minutes of scrubbing on my own shower stall. I didn’t get to tell her that because she explained at the very end of the ride, so I understood her predicament more than she knows.

A housecleaner came today to my apartment. She did a great job. But my god, it must have been six hours she was here, doing an initial “deep clean” for what will be a monthly, hopefully less time-consuming, cleaning in the future.

This is the same outfit I used to do the final cleaning of my old apartment. They took a lot longer than I expected then too. But it’s hard to find housecleaning in Pittsburgh. Mostly, they don’t even return your calls.

And I keep thinking of that woman I drove from Heinz Lofts.

COVID-19 Pandemic

Doctors and charlatans

Jon LaPook, “America’s virus trackers show cautious optimism over state of coronavirus pandemic,” CBS News, March 6, 2022, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-pandemic-status-60-minutes-2022-03-06/

Tina Nguyen, “The G.O.P.’s New Trump-Putin Headache,” Puck News, March 7, 2022, https://puck.news/the-g-o-p-s-new-trump-putin-headache/

Donald Trump

Coup attempt

Tina Nguyen, “The G.O.P.’s New Trump-Putin Headache,” Puck News, March 7, 2022, https://puck.news/the-g-o-p-s-new-trump-putin-headache/

Sadie Gurman and Aruna Viswanatha, “Proud Boys Leader Enrique Tarrio Arrested in Connection With Jan. 6 Attack,” Wall Street Journal, March 8, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/proud-boys-leader-enrique-tarrio-arrested-in-connection-with-jan-6-attack-11646758178

Aruna Viswanatha and Alexa Corse, “First Jan. 6 Criminal Trial Leads to Conviction on All Counts,” Wall Street Journal, March 8, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-jan-6-criminal-trial-leads-to-conviction-on-all-counts-11646765118

U.S. Postal Service

Jacob Bogage, “Senate passes $107 billion overhaul of USPS, lauding mail agency’s role in pandemic response,” Washington Post, March 8, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/03/08/usps-senate-biden/

Pittsburgh

Infrastructure

I am a little perturbed by how long it’s taken for Ed Gainey to announce reinspections of bridges rated in poor condition.^[1] The Fern Hollow Bridge collapsed, after all, clear back in January. Late January, but January nonetheless.

It sounds, however, like Gainey actually has a program. This is in coordination with the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT).^[2] So this could be a stylistic thing: Gainey is doing before he is talking, something a bunch of other Democrats might take note of.

That said, this style, assuming that’s what it is, is going to take some getting used to. And I’m thinking at the very least, I should be perturbed that it took so long to set up a program with PennDOT. That might be PennDOT’s fault, but I don’t know. It seems weird.

Julia Felton, “Mayor Gainey says Pittsburgh will reinspect all city-owned bridges in poor condition,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, March 8, 2022, https://triblive.com/local/mayor-gainey-says-pittsburgh-will-reinspect-all-city-owned-bridges-in-poor-condition/

Ukraine

Julia Ioffe, it turns out, has her own rather different take on why deposing Vladimir Putin wouldn’t work.^[3] Paul Nuki and Mark Galeotti, you might recall, each argued, in effect, that Putin is a puppet master and the oligarchs and security elites are his puppets. A coup, in their light, has the same likelihood of success as that of a marionette turning against the hand that pulls its strings.^[4] Ioffe, on the other hand, observes all the people who are willingly carrying out Putin’s orders. The same, she argues, happened under Josef Stalin and she attributes a joke to Michael Idov who, she paraphrases, said something to the effect “that, in 100 years, Russia had reproduced essentially the same system three times: an authoritarian bureaucracy with a cult of personality at its center. Whatever its ideological trappings—monarchist, communist, neo-fascist—the core was the same.”^[5]

It turns out to be unlikely that Mark Twain actually said, “History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.”^[6] But more than this, Ioffe’s view draws on an archetype I have seen before that characterizes the Russian psyche as somehow craving a cruel authoritarian. This said, regardless of how he views himself, Putin is not Stalin, nor is he Nicholas II; Putin does not live in Stalin’s time, nor Nicholas II’s.

That doesn’t make Ioffe wrong. Indeed, I very much fear she is right. There might, in fact, be something of Philip Zimbardo’s “power of the situation”^[7] in the Kremlin that somehow survives all the upheavals of Russian history. But this is the very sort of view that must be treated with caution.

One of the things I tell the students who find themselves on an Uber ride with me driving is that social science theories should be treated like tools in a toolbox. When they seem to suit the task at hand, great, by all means, use them and cite them. When they don’t, put them back in the toolbox. Leave them aside for another day.

Along with this, what I’m really saying is that no social science theory is all that wonderful for prediction. It might help you to explain a point, in which case, you should absolutely use it. But don’t trust it to predict an outcome. It might be right. But I’d much rather apply it post hoc.

So go ahead, call me chicken shit. Call out my lack of courage. Scholarship isn’t about toxic masculinity. In the social sciences especially, we seek to understand. That macho approach that says I’ve got a theory and I’m gonna predict the future with it is simply silly.

Roane Carey, “Don’t Be a Tankie: How the Left Should Respond to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine,” Intecept, March 1, 2022, https://theintercept.com/2022/03/01/ukraine-russia-leftists-tankie/

Richard Fontaine, “The Long Weekend That Changed History,” Atlantic, March 1, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/russia-invasion-ukraine-week-decade/622957/

Camille Gijs, “US sees ‘no indication’ to back Ukrainian claim Belarus has joined Russia’s invasion,” Politico, March 1, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-russia-war-ukraine/

Quinn Glabicki, “The Russian invasion of Ukraine ignites anger, distress among Pittsburghers from warring nations,” Public Source, March 1, 2022, https://www.publicsource.org/pittsburgh-reaction-ukraine-russia-invasion-war-putin/

Yuras Karmanau et al., “Russia pummels Ukraine’s No. 2 city and convoy nears Kyiv,” Associated Press, March 1, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-united-nations-general-assembly-kyiv-business-europe-abc3e297725e57e6052529d844b5ee2f

Iuliia Mendel, “Love, war and two cats — What fleeing Kyiv looked like for us,” Washington Post, March 1, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2022/ukraine-russia-war-what-like-leave-kyiv/

Adam Taylor, “War in Ukraine enters a new phase, even more unpredictable and dangerous than the last,” Washington Post, March 1, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/03/01/ukraine-putin-nuclear-sanctions/

Nataliya Vasilyeva, Robert Mendick, and Mason Boycott-Owen, “Russian troops in disarray and ‘crying’ in combat, radio messages reveal,” Telegraph, March 1, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/01/russian-troops-disarray-crying-combat-radio-messages-reveal/

Robin Wright, “What Does Putin’s Nuclear Sabre Rattling Mean?” New Yorker, March 1, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-does-putins-nuclear-sabre-rattling-mean

Con Coughlin, “The oligarchs are turning on Russia’s new tsar,” Telegraph, March 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/03/oligarchs-turning-russias-new-tsar/

Julia Ioffe, “Europe’s 9/11,” Puck News, March 3, 2022, https://puck.news/europes-9-11/

Eric Levitz, “Putin’s War Looks Increasingly Insane,” New York, March 4, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/putins-war-looks-increasingly-insane.html

Reuters, “Ukraine and Russia: What you need to know right now,” March 4, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-russia-what-you-need-know-right-now-2022-03-03/

Benjamin R. Young, “Putin Has a Grimly Absolute Vision of the ‘Russian World,’” Foreign Policy, March 6, 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/06/russia-putin-civilization/

Tom Ball, “This war will be a total failure, FSB whistleblower says,” Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/this-war-will-be-a-total-failure-fsb-whistleblower-says-wl2gtdl9m

Jesus Jiménez, “What Is NATO and Which Countries Are Members?” New York Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/article/what-is-nato.html

Tina Nguyen, “The G.O.P.’s New Trump-Putin Headache,” Puck News, March 7, 2022, https://puck.news/the-g-o-p-s-new-trump-putin-headache/

Jordan Michael Smith, “Would Putin Really Go Nuclear? Well …,” New Republic, March 7, 2022, https://newrepublic.com/article/165634/putin-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-us-response

Kaitlan Collins et al., “Biden announces ban on Russian energy imports,” CNN, March 8, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/08/politics/russian-energy-import-ban/index.html

Julia Ioffe, “The Death of Putin,” Puck News, March 8, 2022, https://puck.news/the-death-of-putin/

Paul Nuki, “Why Vladimir Putin may stay in power longer than we think,” Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/08/vladimir-putin-may-stay-power-longer-think/

Matt Oliver, “West scrambles for alternatives to Russian oil and gas,7rdquo; Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/03/08/inside-wests-battle-wean-russian-oil-gas/

^[1]Julia Felton, “Mayor Gainey says Pittsburgh will reinspect all city-owned bridges in poor condition,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, March 8, 2022, https://triblive.com/local/mayor-gainey-says-pittsburgh-will-reinspect-all-city-owned-bridges-in-poor-condition/↩
^[2]Julia Felton, “Mayor Gainey says Pittsburgh will reinspect all city-owned bridges in poor condition,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, March 8, 2022, https://triblive.com/local/mayor-gainey-says-pittsburgh-will-reinspect-all-city-owned-bridges-in-poor-condition/↩
^[3]Julia Ioffe, “The Death of Putin,” Puck News, March 8, 2022, https://puck.news/the-death-of-putin/↩
^[4]Mark Galeotti, “How does Putin extract himself from this nightmare of his own making?” Times, March 5, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-does-putin-extract-himself-from-this-nightmare-of-his-own-making-v2ktvw08g; Paul Nuki, “Why Vladimir Putin may stay in power longer than we think,” Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/08/vladimir-putin-may-stay-power-longer-think/↩
^[5]Julia Ioffe, “The Death of Putin,” Puck News, March 8, 2022, https://puck.news/the-death-of-putin/↩
^[6]Quote Investigator, “History Does Not Repeat Itself, But It Rhymes,” January 12, 2014, https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/01/12/history-rhymes/↩
^[7]Philip Zimbardo, The Lucifer Effect: Understanding How Good People Turn Evil (New York: Random House, 2008).↩

How much longer, really, for Uber and Lyft?

March 8, 2022benfell

My publication schedule, such as it really isn’t, is particularly disrupted today as I have a housekeeper doing a deep cleaning on my apartment. It’s been a few months since I moved in; I’ve been putting this off because I’m really still, even now, recovering from last year. But at some point, it just can’t be put off any longer, even when I’ve still got taxes to pay.

‘Rideshare’ driving

That these companies remain so desperate to protect their exploitative business model^[1] certainly belies Uber’s claim to be able to make a profit regardless of labor model.^[2] Of course, the reality remains that they can’t make a profit regardless of labor model, which means these companies will die just about as soon as investors finally figure out what a whole bunch of other people have already figured out and, in fact, have known for years.^[3]

Brody Mullins and Ryan Tracy, “Uber, Lyft and Others Launch Campaign to Head Off Unions,” Wall Street Journal, March 8, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/uber-lyft-and-others-launch-campaign-to-head-off-unions-11646733600

Fossil fuels

Northeast

Reid Frazier, “U.S. Steel fined $1.8 million for ‘rotten egg’-gas pollution near Pittsburgh,” WESA, March 7, 2022, https://www.wesa.fm/environment-energy/2022-03-07/us-steel-fined-1-8-million-for-rotten-egg-gas-pollution-near-pittsburgh

Donald Trump

Coup attempt

Remember always that the once and likely future president will likely be able to pardon any convicted on federal charges. Appeals between now and then might keep any of these folks who have not accepted a plea deal from serving any significant time in prison.

Ukraine

Roane Carey, “Don’t Be a Tankie: How the Left Should Respond to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine,” Intecept, March 1, 2022, https://theintercept.com/2022/03/01/ukraine-russia-leftists-tankie/

Richard Fontaine, “The Long Weekend That Changed History,” Atlantic, March 1, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/russia-invasion-ukraine-week-decade/622957/

Camille Gijs, “US sees ‘no indication’ to back Ukrainian claim Belarus has joined Russia’s invasion,” Politico, March 1, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-russia-war-ukraine/

Robin Wright, “What Does Putin’s Nuclear Sabre Rattling Mean?” New Yorker, March 1, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-does-putins-nuclear-sabre-rattling-mean

Con Coughlin, “The oligarchs are turning on Russia’s new tsar,” Telegraph, March 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/03/oligarchs-turning-russias-new-tsar/

Julia Ioffe, “Europe’s 9/11,” Puck News, March 3, 2022, https://puck.news/europes-9-11/

Eric Levitz, “Putin’s War Looks Increasingly Insane,” New York, March 4, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/putins-war-looks-increasingly-insane.html

Reuters, “Ukraine and Russia: What you need to know right now,” March 4, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-russia-what-you-need-know-right-now-2022-03-03/

Benjamin R. Young, “Putin Has a Grimly Absolute Vision of the ‘Russian World,’” Foreign Policy, March 6, 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/06/russia-putin-civilization/

Tom Ball, “This war will be a total failure, FSB whistleblower says,” Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/this-war-will-be-a-total-failure-fsb-whistleblower-says-wl2gtdl9m

Jesus Jiménez, “What Is NATO and Which Countries Are Members?” New York Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/article/what-is-nato.html

Jordan Michael Smith, “Would Putin Really Go Nuclear? Well …,” New Republic, March 7, 2022, https://newrepublic.com/article/165634/putin-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-us-response

Kaitlan Collins et al., “Biden announces ban on Russian energy imports,” CNN, March 8, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/08/politics/russian-energy-import-ban/index.html

Paul Nuki, “Why Vladimir Putin may stay in power longer than we think,” Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/08/vladimir-putin-may-stay-power-longer-think/

Matt Oliver, “West scrambles for alternatives to Russian oil and gas,7rdquo; Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/03/08/inside-wests-battle-wean-russian-oil-gas/

^[1]Brody Mullins and Ryan Tracy, “Uber, Lyft and Others Launch Campaign to Head Off Unions,” Wall Street Journal, March 8, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/uber-lyft-and-others-launch-campaign-to-head-off-unions-11646733600 ↩
^[2]Lee Fang, “Uber CEO Admits Company Can Afford Labor Protections for Drivers,” Intercept, January 7, 2022, https://theintercept.com/2022/01/07/uber-drivers-labor-protections-dara-khosrowshahi-european-union/↩
^[3]Matthew Beedham, “Uber: Is this the beginning of the end for the ride-hailing Goliath?” Next Web, March 2, 2021, https://thenextweb.com/shift/2021/03/02/uber-is-this-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-the-ride-hailing-goliath/; Cory Doctorow, “End of the line for Uber,” Pluralistic, August 10, 2021, https://pluralistic.net/2021/08/10/unter/#bezzle-no-more; Cory Doctorow, “The Big Lie that keeps the Uber bezzle alive,” Pluralistic, February 11, 2022, https://pluralistic.net/2022/02/11/bezzlers-gonna-bezzle/; Richard Durant, “Uber’s Profitability Problem Is Structural,” Seeking Alpha, August 21, 2019, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4287055-ubers-profitability-problem-structural; Ryan Felton, “Uber Is Doomed,” Jalopnik, February 24, 2017, https://jalopnik.com/uber-is-doomed-1792634203; Hubert Horan, “Can Uber Ever Deliver? Part Twenty-Two: Profits and Cash Flow Keep Deteriorating as Uber’s GAAP Losses Hit $8.5 Billion,” Naked Capitalism, February 7, 2020, https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/02/hubert-horan-can-uber-ever-deliver-part-twenty-two-profits-and-cash-flow-keep-deteriorating-as-ubers-gaap-losses-hit-8-5-billion.html; George Maier, “Will Uber still exist by the end of the decade?” London School of Economics, October 29, 2021, https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2021/10/29/will-uber-still-exist-by-the-end-of-the-decade/; Tom McKay, “Uber Says It’s on Track to Maybe Make a Fake Profit,” Gizmodo, September 21, 2021, https://gizmodo.com/uber-says-its-on-track-to-maybe-make-a-fake-profit-1847716786; Yves Smith, “Uber Is Headed for a Crash,” New York, December 4, 2018, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/12/will-uber-survive-the-next-decade.html; Trading Places Research, “Uber And Lyft: The Limits Of The Amazon Model,” Seeking Alpha, August 15, 2021, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449578-uber-and-lyft-the-limits-of-the-amazon-model ↩

Moldava may be next

March 8, 2022benfell

Hate

It seems that Pennsylvania Republicans would rather “protect free speech” than crack down on anti-Semitism.^[1]

Candy Woodall, “Pa. hate thrives while bills languish,” Erie Times-News, March 8, 2022, https://erietimes-pa.newsmemory.com?selDate=20220308&goTo=A01&artid=6

Ukraine

Moldova, a small country, with a small military and a weak economy, which is not a member of either the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or he European Union, and which is located between Romania and Ukraine, may be next on Vladimir Putin’s hit list.^[2]

Also, Paul Nuki, at the Telegraph, explains why oligarchs near Vladimir Putin are unlikely to push him out:^[3]

[T]hose hoping that sanctions will quickly topple Putin are mistaken, say experts. Popular uprisings of the sort that saw the Iron Curtain torn down need years to foment and, for the moment at least, 70 per cent of Russians support the war in Ukraine according to official polls.

Perhaps more surprising, the idea that the business and security elites who surround Putin will suddenly turn on him is also flawed, say Kremlinologists. Indeed, the financial storm they face could drive many closer to Putin.^[4]

It seems these oligarchs, such as they are, are under Putin’s thumb, mere “managers” of state assets, which are effectively Putin’s assets, while the “security elites” share Putin’s ideology. But the sanctions also bite ordinary Russians as Putin’s regime will no longer be able to pay them; many are already leaving the country and the military will lack economic support. So Putin, while insulated from any immediate threat, nonetheless faces a longer-term decay.^[5]

Assuming sanctions do indeed have the impact Nuki suggests—he may be exaggerating as long as Europe keeps buying Russian oil and gas^[6]—it’s hard to see how Putin’s military adventure continues, which is why I think he will need to achieve results quickly, quite possibly by going nuclear.

Roane Carey, “Don’t Be a Tankie: How the Left Should Respond to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine,” Intecept, March 1, 2022, https://theintercept.com/2022/03/01/ukraine-russia-leftists-tankie/

Richard Fontaine, “The Long Weekend That Changed History,” Atlantic, March 1, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/russia-invasion-ukraine-week-decade/622957/

Camille Gijs, “US sees ‘no indication’ to back Ukrainian claim Belarus has joined Russia’s invasion,” Politico, March 1, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-russia-war-ukraine/

Robin Wright, “What Does Putin’s Nuclear Sabre Rattling Mean?” New Yorker, March 1, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-does-putins-nuclear-sabre-rattling-mean

Con Coughlin, “The oligarchs are turning on Russia’s new tsar,” Telegraph, March 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/03/oligarchs-turning-russias-new-tsar/

Julia Ioffe, “Europe’s 9/11,” Puck News, March 3, 2022, https://puck.news/europes-9-11/

Eric Levitz, “Putin’s War Looks Increasingly Insane,” New York, March 4, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/putins-war-looks-increasingly-insane.html

Reuters, “Ukraine and Russia: What you need to know right now,” March 4, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-russia-what-you-need-know-right-now-2022-03-03/

Benjamin R. Young, “Putin Has a Grimly Absolute Vision of the ‘Russian World,’” Foreign Policy, March 6, 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/06/russia-putin-civilization/

Tom Ball, “This war will be a total failure, FSB whistleblower says,” Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/this-war-will-be-a-total-failure-fsb-whistleblower-says-wl2gtdl9m

Jesus Jiménez, “What Is NATO and Which Countries Are Members?” New York Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/article/what-is-nato.html

Jordan Michael Smith, “Would Putin Really Go Nuclear? Well …,” New Republic, March 7, 2022, https://newrepublic.com/article/165634/putin-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-us-response

Paul Nuki, “Why Vladimir Putin may stay in power longer than we think,” Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/08/vladimir-putin-may-stay-power-longer-think/

Matt Oliver, “West scrambles for alternatives to Russian oil and gas,7rdquo; Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/03/08/inside-wests-battle-wean-russian-oil-gas/

^[1]Candy Woodall, “Pa. hate thrives while bills languish,” Erie Times-Record, March 8, 2022, https://erietimes-pa.newsmemory.com?selDate=20220308&goTo=A01&artid=6 ↩
^[2]Jacob Judah, “Moldova braces for ‘spectrum of threats’ as Russia bids to seize south of Ukraine,” Telegraph, March 7, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/07/moldova-braced-spectrum-threats-russia-bids-seize-south-ukraine/↩
^[3]Paul Nuki, “Why Vladimir Putin may stay in power longer than we think,” Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/08/vladimir-putin-may-stay-power-longer-think/↩
^[4]Paul Nuki, “Why Vladimir Putin may stay in power longer than we think,” Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/08/vladimir-putin-may-stay-power-longer-think/↩
^[5]Paul Nuki, “Why Vladimir Putin may stay in power longer than we think,” Telegraph, March 8, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/08/vladimir-putin-may-stay-power-longer-think/↩
^[6]Daniel Thomas & Michael Race, “War in Ukraine: Russia says it may cut gas supplies if oil ban goes ahead,” British Broadcasting Corporation, March 8, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60656673 ↩

Be careful what you wish for

March 7, 2022benfell

Right-wing dictatorship

Robert Barnes, “Supreme Court denies GOP requests to block new congressional maps in N.C., Pa.,” Washington Post, March 7, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/07/supreme-court-congressional-maps/

Ukraine

If that light at the end of the tunnel isn’t just that radioactive flash that precedes the mushroom cloud, it might be that the Ukrainian military continues to wildly outperform expectations and that the Russian military continues to confound the experts by underperforming the same expectations. Russia has also apparently dropped its “denazification” demand and will settle for Ukrainian neutrality, that is, no European Union or North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership; recognition of Crimea as Russian territory; and recognition of separatist eastern regions as independent. It’s still an awfully big ask and Ukraine, buoyed by this continuing battlefield success, might well refuse.^[1]

As implausible as it may seem,^[2] I am convinced that Vladimir Putin must be utterly defeated and utterly humiliated, whether through some sort of coup or on the battlefield, and forced to abandon his imperial ambitions. If I am to embrace Julia Ioffe’s recommended pessimism,^[3] this is the only hope for averting a wider war.^[4]

The trick is in getting to that point: Doing so undermines the very assumptions that many experts rely on in assuming that Putin will not go nuclear.^[5] Be careful what you wish for, because I sure as hell utterly fail to see a way through this conundrum.

Associated Press, “Russia-Ukraine War: What to know as Ukraine resists advance,” February 28, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-what-to-know-1c7a5fc5e9cf84134592c855c363e791

Larisa Brown, “Ukraine resistance shatters Putin’s plan for victory in 48 hours,” Times, February 28, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk//article/ukraine-resistance-shatters-putins-plan-for-victory-in-48-hours-0flscp323

Martin Farrer, Andrew Roth, and Julian Borger, “Ukraine war: sanctions-hit Russian rouble crashes as Zelenskiy speaks of ‘crucial’ 24 hours,” Guardian, February 28, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/28/ukraine-war-sanctions-hit-russian-rouble-crashes-as-zelenskiy-speaks-of-crucial-24-hours

Julia Ioffe, “‘The Image of Putin Has Broken,’” Puck News, February 28, 2022, https://puck.news/the-image-of-putin-has-broken/

Roland Oliphant, “The Russians rolled into Kharkiv like victors, but it was another disaster for them,” Telegraph, February 28, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/27/dispatch-russians-rolled-kharkiv-like-victors-another-disaster/

Caitlin Ostroff, “Russia’s Ruble, Financial Markets Are Hammered by Sanctions,” Wall Street Journal, February 28, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-ruble-financial-markets-are-hammered-by-sanctions-11646038133

Reuters, “Demand for VPNs in Russia, Ukraine leaps as internet control tightens,” February 28, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/demand-vpns-russia-ukraine-leaps-internet-control-tightens-2022-02-28/

Reuters, “The events leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” February 28, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/events-leading-up-russias-invasion-ukraine-2022-02-28/

Roane Carey, “Don’t Be a Tankie: How the Left Should Respond to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine,” Intecept, March 1, 2022, https://theintercept.com/2022/03/01/ukraine-russia-leftists-tankie/

Richard Fontaine, “The Long Weekend That Changed History,” Atlantic, March 1, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/russia-invasion-ukraine-week-decade/622957/

Camille Gijs, “US sees ‘no indication’ to back Ukrainian claim Belarus has joined Russia’s invasion,” Politico, March 1, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-russia-war-ukraine/

Robin Wright, “What Does Putin’s Nuclear Sabre Rattling Mean?” New Yorker, March 1, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-does-putins-nuclear-sabre-rattling-mean

Con Coughlin, “The oligarchs are turning on Russia’s new tsar,” Telegraph, March 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/03/oligarchs-turning-russias-new-tsar/

Julia Ioffe, “Europe’s 9/11,” Puck News, March 3, 2022, https://puck.news/europes-9-11/

Eric Levitz, “Putin’s War Looks Increasingly Insane,” New York, March 4, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/putins-war-looks-increasingly-insane.html

Reuters, “Ukraine and Russia: What you need to know right now,” March 4, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-russia-what-you-need-know-right-now-2022-03-03/

Benjamin R. Young, “Putin Has a Grimly Absolute Vision of the ‘Russian World,’” Foreign Policy, March 6, 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/06/russia-putin-civilization/

Tom Ball, “This war will be a total failure, FSB whistleblower says,” Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/this-war-will-be-a-total-failure-fsb-whistleblower-says-wl2gtdl9m

Jesus Jiménez, “What Is NATO and Which Countries Are Members?” New York Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/article/what-is-nato.html

Jordan Michael Smith, “Would Putin Really Go Nuclear? Well …,” New Republic, March 7, 2022, https://newrepublic.com/article/165634/putin-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-us-response

^[1]Robert Mendick and Dominic Nicholls, “Russian aircraft losses in Ukraine ‘unsustainable for more than a fortnight,’” Telegraph, March 7, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/07/russian-aircraft-losses-ukraine-unsustainable-fortnight/↩
^[2]Mark Galeotti, “How does Putin extract himself from this nightmare of his own making?” Times, March 5, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-does-putin-extract-himself-from-this-nightmare-of-his-own-making-v2ktvw08g; Julia Ioffe, “Europe’s 9/11,” Puck News, March 3, 2022, https://puck.news/europes-9-11/↩
^[3]Julia Ioffe, “Putin on the Brink… of What, Exactly?” Puck News, February 15, 2022, https://puck.news/putin-on-the-brink/↩
^[4]David Benfell, “Where does Vladimir Putin stop?” Not Housebroken, March 7, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/04/where-does-vladimir-putin-stop/↩
^[5]Jordan Michael Smith, “Would Putin Really Go Nuclear? Well …,” New Republic, March 7, 2022, https://newrepublic.com/article/165634/putin-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-us-response ↩

Russia is setting up a pretext for a wider war

March 7, 2022benfell

Ukraine

My problem is that I don't see where Vladimir Putin stops, why he would stop after swallowing Ukraine.https://t.co/8kOwWBQfat

Not seeing that, my question becomes not if, but when NATO gets drawn into war. If war is indeed inevitable, we might as well try to save Ukraine.

— David Benfell, Ph.D. (@n4rky) March 7, 2022

Benjamin Young’s analysis suggests that Vladmir Putin has a maximalist vision of Russia pretty much as including all Russians everywhere. Ukraine may be integral in Putin’s vision, but there’s nothing here that suggests any limits to his ambition.^[1] Then there’s this:

Maj. Gen. [Igor] Konashenkov [a Russian military spokesperson] said Russia attacked Ukrainian military airfields in Starokostyantyniv and Vinnytsia and that Russia had destroyed nearly all of Ukraine’s military aircraft.

He claimed that Ukrainian jet fighters have flown to Romania and other neighboring countries during the conflict, an action which he said “can be regarded as the involvement of these states in armed conflict.”^[2]

Romania is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.^[3] Igor Konashenkov’s claim, certainly in combination with Putin’s characterization of sanctions against Russia as “akin to an act of war,”^[4] lays rhetorical groundwork for a wider war, explicitly with NATO, more generally with anyone who participates in those sanctions.

Hugged a crying friend today. She and her entire family are from Kyiv, for many generations. I wanted to say what I usually say when comforting a friend, “It’s going to be okay, I promise.” But my tongue just wouldn’t turn to say the words. They are not true.

— Julia Ioffe (@juliaioffe) March 7, 2022

The only hope would be in removing Putin from power. And this is, I am to understand, no hope at all.^[5]

Associated Press, “Russia-Ukraine War: What to know as Ukraine resists advance,” February 28, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-what-to-know-1c7a5fc5e9cf84134592c855c363e791

Julia Ioffe, “‘The Image of Putin Has Broken,’” Puck News, February 28, 2022, https://puck.news/the-image-of-putin-has-broken/

Reuters, “The events leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” February 28, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/events-leading-up-russias-invasion-ukraine-2022-02-28/

Roane Carey, “Don’t Be a Tankie: How the Left Should Respond to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine,” Intecept, March 1, 2022, https://theintercept.com/2022/03/01/ukraine-russia-leftists-tankie/

Richard Fontaine, “The Long Weekend That Changed History,” Atlantic, March 1, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/russia-invasion-ukraine-week-decade/622957/

Camille Gijs, “US sees ‘no indication’ to back Ukrainian claim Belarus has joined Russia’s invasion,” Politico, March 1, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-russia-war-ukraine/

Robin Wright, “What Does Putin’s Nuclear Sabre Rattling Mean?” New Yorker, March 1, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/what-does-putins-nuclear-sabre-rattling-mean

Con Coughlin, “The oligarchs are turning on Russia’s new tsar,” Telegraph, March 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/03/oligarchs-turning-russias-new-tsar/

Julia Ioffe, “Europe’s 9/11,” Puck News, March 3, 2022, https://puck.news/europes-9-11/

Eric Levitz, “Putin’s War Looks Increasingly Insane,” New York, March 4, 2022, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/03/putins-war-looks-increasingly-insane.html

Reuters, “Ukraine and Russia: What you need to know right now,” March 4, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-russia-what-you-need-know-right-now-2022-03-03/

Benjamin R. Young, “Putin Has a Grimly Absolute Vision of the ‘Russian World,’” Foreign Policy, March 6, 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/06/russia-putin-civilization/

Jesus Jiménez, “What Is NATO and Which Countries Are Members?” New York Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/article/what-is-nato.html

Jordan Michael Smith, “Would Putin Really Go Nuclear? Well …,” New Republic, March 7, 2022, https://newrepublic.com/article/165634/putin-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-us-response

COVID-19 Pandemic

Doctors and charlatans

Jon LaPook’s story, offering hope that COVID-19 is following the path of the common cold, which itself may well have started off as a much more dangerous disease, is much too cheerful^[6] against the Department of Health and Human Services’ ending of data collection from hospitals.^[7] LaPook’s reporting^[8] is rather a puff piece for the agency, whose own data collection efforts rely on politically motivated sources,^[9] and I will never again be able to trust that these agencies will speak according to the science rather than according to what politicians want to hear.^[10]

If there is one thing I can be grateful for, it is that I am not immunocompromised, indeed, if anything, the opposite. For the immunocompromised are being thrown under the bus in a rush for ‘normal.’^[11]

^[1]Benjamin R. Young, “Putin Has a Grimly Absolute Vision of the ‘Russian World,’” Foreign Policy, March 6, 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/06/russia-putin-civilization/↩
^[2]Yaroslav Trofimov and Alan Cullison, “Ukraine Faces Fresh Wave of Attacks Focused on Population Centers,” Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-resumes-evacuation-attempts-as-russia-presses-offensive-11646564330 ↩
^[3]Jesus Jiménez, “What Is NATO and Which Countries Are Members?” New York Times, March 7, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/article/what-is-nato.html ↩
^[4]Vladimir Putin, quoted in Toby Helm et al., “Defiant Putin warns the west: your sanctions are akin to an act of war,” Guardian, March 5, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/05/defiant-putin-warns-the-west-your-sanctions-are-akin-to-an-act-of-war ↩
^[5]Mark Galeotti, “How does Putin extract himself from this nightmare of his own making?” Times, March 5, 2022, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-does-putin-extract-himself-from-this-nightmare-of-his-own-making-v2ktvw08g; Julia Ioffe, “Europe’s 9/11,” Puck News, March 3, 2022, https://puck.news/europes-9-11/↩
^[6]Jon LaPook, “America’s virus trackers show cautious optimism over state of coronavirus pandemic,” CBS News, March 6, 2022, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-pandemic-status-60-minutes-2022-03-06/↩
^[7]Andre Damon, “End of COVID-19 hospital death reporting is ‘incomprehensible,’ says US health official,” World Socialist Web Site, February 3, 2022, https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/02/03/deat-f03.html ↩
^[8]Jon LaPook, “America’s virus trackers show cautious optimism over state of coronavirus pandemic,” CBS News, March 6, 2022, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-pandemic-status-60-minutes-2022-03-06/↩
^[9]Andre Damon, “End of COVID-19 hospital death reporting is ‘incomprehensible,’ says US health official,” World Socialist Web Site, February 3, 2022, https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/02/03/deat-f03.html ↩
^[10]David Benfell, “Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Doctors need to act like doctors,” Not Housebroken, February 6, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2021/12/30/centers-for-disease-control-and-prevention-doctors-need-to-act-like-doctors/↩
^[11]Ed Yong, “The Millions of People Stuck in Pandemic Limbo,” Atlantic, February 16, 2022, https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/02/covid-pandemic-immunocompromised-risk-vaccines/622094/↩