Israel eviscerates the final shred of plausible deniability that its government seeks a wider war

Imperialism


Fig. 1. “Map of the Roman Empire during 69AD, the Year of the Four Emperors. Coloured areas indicate provinces loyal to one of four warring generals.” Original: User:Steerpike and en:User:Andrei nacu, August 11, 2009, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0.

The headline says Ethiopia, but the crux of this is really about Somaliland, a relatively stable enclave that has declared independence from Somalia. Somaliland is not recognized by any member of the United Nations. It hopes to gain recognition from landlocked Ethiopia by providing Ethiopia with a seaport.[1]

Ishaan Tharoor, “Ethiopia’s controversial quest for the sea,” Washington Post, January 8, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/08/ethiopia-red-sea-access-somaliland/

Imperialism

Israel

Lebanon


Fig. 1. “Sabra & Shatila Massacre 1982 Memorial in Sabra, South Beirut,” photograph by Bertramz, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 3.0.

Israel has now eviscerated the last shred of plausible deniability that they seek a wider war,[2] which Binyamin Netanyahu likely calculates would draw in Iran and thus the U.S.,[3] saving his ass both in the war he isn’t winning against Hamas,[4] and, if he’s really lucky, salvaging his electoral prospects following the war.[5]

John Hudson, Yasmeen Abutaleb, and Shane Harris, “Israel’s talk of expanding war to Lebanon alarms U.S.,” Washington Post, January 7, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/07/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-blinken/

Wafaa Shurafa, Jack Jeffery, Bassem Mroue, “Israeli strike kills an elite Hezbollah commander in the latest escalation linked to the war in Gaza,” Associated Press, January 8, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-01-08-2024-18fbc9af50000c94fed59017fe82481e

Palestine

07_09:10:47-2
Fig. 1. The ruins of a terminal at the Gaza airport. Image by Said Khatib (Agence France-Presse) on September 9, 2018, via the Times of Israel,[6] fair use.

David Cohen, “Israel’s president says expelling Palestinians not the plan,” Politico, January 7, 2024, https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/07/israel-palestinians-expel-gaza-00134187

Wafaa Shurafa, Jack Jeffery, Bassem Mroue, “Israeli strike kills an elite Hezbollah commander in the latest escalation linked to the war in Gaza,” Associated Press, January 8, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-01-08-2024-18fbc9af50000c94fed59017fe82481e


  1. [1]Ishaan Tharoor, “Ethiopia’s controversial quest for the sea,” Washington Post, January 8, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/08/ethiopia-red-sea-access-somaliland/
  2. [2]John Hudson, Yasmeen Abutaleb, and Shane Harris, “Israel’s talk of expanding war to Lebanon alarms U.S.,” Washington Post, January 7, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/07/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-blinken/
  3. [3]John Hudson, Yasmeen Abutaleb, and Shane Harris, “Israel’s talk of expanding war to Lebanon alarms U.S.,” Washington Post, January 7, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/07/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-blinken/; Amal Saad, “Israel is pushing Hezbollah to its limits. How it responds will define the future of this war,” Guardian, January 5, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/05/israel-hezbollah-war-hamas-saleh-arouri-lebanon
  4. [4]Paul Rogers, “Israel is losing the war against Hamas – but Netanyahu and his government will never admit it,” Guardian, December 21, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/21/israel-losing-war-against-hamas-netanyahu-idf
  5. [5]John Hudson, Yasmeen Abutaleb, and Shane Harris, “Israel’s talk of expanding war to Lebanon alarms U.S.,” Washington Post, January 7, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/07/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-blinken/
  6. [6]Agence France-Presse and Times of Israel, “20 years after its opening, destroyed Gaza airport embodies grounded peace hopes,” Times of Israel, September 12, 2018, https://www.timesofisrael.com/20-years-after-its-opening-destroyed-gaza-airport-embodies-grounded-peace-hopes/

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