October 2022 – Page 4 – Irregular Bullshit

Why won’t Vladimir Putin be prosecuted for invading Ukraine? One answer is George W. Bush and his invasion of Iraq.

October 10, 2022benfell

Ukraine

Fig. 1. “The atomic cloud over Nagasaki 1945.” Photograph from Office for Emergency Management. Office of War Information. Overseas Operations Branch, New York Office, News and Features Bureau, (12/17/1942 – 09/15/1945), by Charles Levy, August 9, 1945, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

I am unlikely to do it, but the thought did occur to me that perhaps I should rename this site “The Irregular Putinshit.” Vladimir Putin is spewing forth again, calling the Kerch Bridge bombing an act of terror and blaming Ukrainian special forces. He’s likely laying the rhetorical groundwork for a significant escalation of his war effort.^[1] And his rhetoric, of course, completely ignores the crimes the Russian military has committed and the crimes that Putin himself has committed.

“None of this would be happening if Russia had not invaded,” echoed Philippe Sands, a prominent international law specialist. “The danger that we face is that in five years’ time, we will have three or four trials of low-grade, useless sorts of characters that are totally irrelevant, and the top people just get off scot-free.”^[2]

My guess is we’ll be lucky even to get that. And prosecuting Putin, it would seem, is entirely out of the question:

But other countries, including the U.S., may also not look favorably on the prospect of prosecuting [Vladimir] Putin for the crime of aggression, for fear of setting a precedent that could boomerang against them.

“They don’t want to deal with the crime of aggression because they know that if it’s used against Russia, a permanent member of the Security Council, today, it might be used against them tomorrow,” said Sands. “The big elephant in the room in Ukraine is [George W. Bush’s invasion of] Iraq, which was also a manifestly illegal war and produced a very different response in Britain and in the United States.”^[3]

It might be more honest to admit that it is between states as it is within them: The rule of the strong, by whatever pretext necessary.

Lewis Page, “Why Putin would be a fool to go nuclear in Ukraine,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/02/why-putin-would-fool-go-nuclear-ukraine/

Farida Rustamova, “Vladimir Putin is making rash and secretive decisions in face of defeats, Kremlin insiders warn,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/02/vladimir-putin-making-rash-secretive-decisions-face-defeats/

Josie Ensor, “Nuclear weapons convoy sparks fears Putin could be preparing test to send ‘signal to the West,’” Telegraph, October 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/03/nuclear-weapons-convoy-sparks-fears-putin-could-preparing-test/

Luke Harding, Isobel Koshiw, and Peter Beaumont, “Russia no longer has full control of any of four ‘annexed’ Ukrainian provinces,” Guardian, October 3, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/03/russia-has-no-full-control-of-any-of-four-annexed-ukrainian-provinces

Dominic Nicholls, “Russia’s bloated military has finally been properly tested – and the results are not good,” Telegraph, October 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/03/ukraines-lyman-victory-shows-skill-trumps-numbers-when-comes/

Mary Ilyushina, Emily Rauhala, and Isabelle Khurshudyan, “Ukraine hammers Russian forces into retreat on east and south fronts,” Washington Post, October 4, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/04/russia-retreat-kherson-lyman-ukraine/

Pjotr Sauer, “Attempts to play down retreats in Ukraine no longer wash inside Russia,” Guardian, October 5, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/05/attempts-to-play-down-retreats-ukraine-russia-war-kremlin-military-failure

Ishaan Tharoor, “Annexations show the depth of Putin’s imperial delusion,” Washington Post, October 5, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/10/05/putin-colonial-imperial-delusion/

Yasmeen Abutaleb, “Biden suggests Putin’s nuclear threats mean a ‘prospect of Armageddon,’” Washington Post, October 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/06/biden-putin-nuclear-armageddon/

Charlie Cooper, “Coal built the EU. Will gas destroy it?” Politico, October 6, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/prague-summit-enegy-gas-eu-ukraine-war-russia-vladimir-putin/

Robyn Dixon, “As Ukraine war falters, Russians ask a risky question: Could Putin fall?” Washington Post, October 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/06/putin-successor-president-russia-war/

Alex Horton, “Russians flee by boat to Alaska after Putin’s military mobilization,” Washington Post, October 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/06/russians-flee-alaska/

Nandita Bose and Pavel Polityuk, “Biden says Putin’s nuclear threat brings risk of ‘Armageddon,’” Reuters, October 7, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-forces-break-through-russian-defences-south-advance-east-2022-10-03/

Christian Esch et al., “Berlin and Washington Play Out Nuclear Scenarios,” Spiegel, October 7, 2022, https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/berlin-and-washington-play-out-scenarios-of-a-nuclear-strike-by-putin-a-ecbc1772-8526-4ce1-ae0d-7270309df54e

Greg Miller et al., “Putin confronted by insider over Ukraine war, U.S. intelligence finds,” Washington Post, October 7, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/07/putin-inner-circle-dissent/

Peter Beaumont, “Impact of Kerch bridge blast will be felt all the way to the Kremlin,” Guardian, October 8, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/08/impact-of-kerch-bridge-blast-will-be-felt-all-the-way-to-the-kremlin

Adam Schreck and Vasilisa Stepanenko, “Explosion on Crimean bridge damages key Russian supply route; 3 dead,” Los Angeles Times, October 8, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-10-08/truck-bomb-damages-crimea-bridge-a-key-supply-artery-for-russias-war-effort

Maite Fernández Simon and Paul Sonne, “Putin’s bridge of dreams explodes in flames,” Washington Post, October 8, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/08/kerch-bridge-crimea-symbolism-putin/

Times of Israel, “Russia says truck bomb caused Crimea bridge explosion, stops short of blaming Kyiv,” October 8, 2022, https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-says-truck-blast-caused-crimea-bridge-explosion-stops-short-of-blaming-kyiv/

Yaroslav Trofimov, “Major Explosion Hits the Bridge Between Crimea and Russia, Halting Traffic,” Wall Street Journal, October 8, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/major-explosion-hits-the-bridge-between-crimea-and-russia-halting-traffic-11665215052

Peter Beaumont, “Vladimir Putin calls blast on Crimea-Russia bridge an ‘act of terror,’” Guardian, October 9, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/09/russia-ukraine-war-attack-housing-zaporizhzhia

Siobhán O’Grady, Anastacia Galouchka, and Whitney Shefte, “In Russian-occupied Izyum, she was raped and tortured,” Washington Post, October 9, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/09/izyum-rape-torture-occupation-russia/

Alice Speri, “The Mother Crime: Will Putin Face Prosecution for the Crime of Aggression in Ukraine?” Intercept, October 9, 2022, https://theintercept.com/2022/10/08/russia-putin-ukraine-war-crimes-accountability/

(dis)United Kingdom

Prime minister

Fig. 1. President Reagan on the South Lawn during the arrival ceremony of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher of the United Kingdom. U.S. Government photograph, November 16, 1988, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Andrew Rawnsley, “Johnson was slow-poisoning arsenic for the Conservatives. Liz Truss is instant cyanide,” Guardian, October 9, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/09/johnson-was-slow-poisoning-arsenic-for-tories-liz-truss-is-instant-cyanide

Aubrey Allegretti and Patrick Butler, “Liz Truss on verge of major U-turn on real-terms benefits cut,” Guardian, October 9, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/09/liz-truss-on-verge-of-major-u-turn-on-real-terms-benefits-cut

Gilead

Police White supremacist gangs

Fig. 1. Image credited to Darnella Frazier, made from a video posted to Facebook, of Minneapolis white supremacist gangster Derek Chauvin’s knee on George Floyd’s neck, May 25, 2020, via ABC News,^[4] fair use.

You won’t need college credit to be a white supremacist gangster in Pittsburgh. They’re dropping the requirement because it was an impediment to recruiting new gang members.^[5]

“We’re going to recruit and train a new class of police officers, and we so want those officers to be from our community, reflect our community and have the values of the community,” Ms. Frank said, “and be the first class of police officers trained under Mayor Gainey to really be the future of our police department.”^[6]

Because who needs a college education to shoot Black people? And that, it seems is the point:

Elizabeth Pittinger, director of the Citizens Police Review Board, said the city explored this topic two decades ago when it charged the board with analyzing the usefulness of the 60-credit requirement. The board concluded then that the education requirement hadn’t significantly impeded recruitment of women and people of color, and Ms. Pittinger said the board maintains that position 20 years later.

“It’s a screening tool. It helps with the screening of applicants to weed out or to bring in — bring in people who’ve demonstrated the ability to be disciplined, that have been exposed to people that aren’t just like them,” she said.^[7]

That last part, it seems, is a real obstacle. So, come on down, all you right-wing extremists who are so common in southwest Pennsylvania!^[8] Pittsburgh wants you!

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Pittsburgh scrapping college credit requirement for police recruits,” October 9, 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/local/city/2022/10/08/pittsburgh-bureau-police-college-credits-academy-mayor-ed-gainey/stories/202210090071

Pittsburgh

Infrastructure

Fig. 1. Post-collapse scene at the Fern Hollow Bridge, photograph by National Transportation Safety Board, January 29, 2022, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Pitt, Pa. Turnpike team up to make Mon-Fayette Expressway a test bed for innovative construction,” October 10, 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/news/transportation/2022/10/10/mon-fayette-expressway-pa-turnpike-university-of-pittsburgh-irise-swanson-school-of-engineering/stories/202210070091

^[1]Peter Beaumont, “Vladimir Putin calls blast on Crimea-Russia bridge an ‘act of terror,’” Guardian, October 9, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/09/russia-ukraine-war-attack-housing-zaporizhzhia ↩
^[2]Alice Speri, “The Mother Crime: Will Putin Face Prosecution for the Crime of Aggression in Ukraine?” Intercept, October 9, 2022, https://theintercept.com/2022/10/08/russia-putin-ukraine-war-crimes-accountability/↩
^[3]Alice Speri, “The Mother Crime: Will Putin Face Prosecution for the Crime of Aggression in Ukraine?” Intercept, October 9, 2022, https://theintercept.com/2022/10/08/russia-putin-ukraine-war-crimes-accountability/↩
^[4]Catherine Thorbecke, “Derek Chauvin had his knee on George Floyd’s neck for nearly 9 minutes, complaint says,” ABC News, May 29, 2020, https://abcnews.go.com/US/derek-chauvin-knee-george-floyds-neck-minutes-complaint/story?id=70961042 ↩
^[5]Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Pittsburgh scrapping college credit requirement for police recruits,” October 9, 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/local/city/2022/10/08/pittsburgh-bureau-police-college-credits-academy-mayor-ed-gainey/stories/202210090071 ↩
^[6]Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Pittsburgh scrapping college credit requirement for police recruits,” October 9, 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/local/city/2022/10/08/pittsburgh-bureau-police-college-credits-academy-mayor-ed-gainey/stories/202210090071 ↩
^[7]Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Pittsburgh scrapping college credit requirement for police recruits,” October 9, 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/local/city/2022/10/08/pittsburgh-bureau-police-college-credits-academy-mayor-ed-gainey/stories/202210090071 ↩
^[8]Ryan Deto, “The FBI declared Pgh. a new hub for white supremacy. That ignores decades of history,” Pennsylvania Capital-Star, November 16, 2020, https://www.penncapital-star.com/civil-rights-social-justice/the-fbi-declared-pgh-a-hub-for-white-supremacy-it-has-a-long-history-already/; Ewan Palmer, “FBI Warn White Supremacist Activity in Pittsburgh Among Highest in Country,” Newsweek, November 13, 2020, https://www.newsweek.com/pittsburgh-white-supremacist-fbi-far-right-1547149 ↩

Absolute fucking idiots, whether artificial or human, will be absolute fucking idiots

October 9, 2022benfell

Work

Fig. 1. The spectre of Death, in the form of a large skeleton, rises with the smoke and flames of the burning Asch Building during the Triangle fire, as people jump and fall to their death. Artist unknown, from International Ladies Garment Workers Union Photographs (1885-1985) at The Kheel Center for Labor-Management Documentation and Archives, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.

There is a new blog post entitled, “Hatred for workers.”

Greg Jaffe, “Howard Schultz’s fight to stop a Starbucks barista uprising,” Washington Post, October 8, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/10/08/starbucks-union-ceo-howard-schultz/

(dis)United Kingdom

Prime minister

Ms [Liz] Truss would have been sensible to operate with delicacy towards Conservative [members of Parliament] and be cautious about what she attempted to put through parliament while acknowledging that the country had no say in her elevation. She has instead behaved in a manner that suggests she was blithely heedless or arrogantly careless of her lack of support. She has acted as if she has the thumping endorsement at a general election for her libertarian manifesto when she was actually installed by Tory activists against the wishes of most of her MPs and without any mandate from the public.^[1]

As Andrew Rawnsley has it, the British are at a point of not knowing how or precisely when, but of absolute certainty of Liz Truss’ imminent demise. Even the Telegraph, which could not heap enough love on her at the start, has cooled considerably.

Artificial idiocy

Fig. 2. “On The Fastrack” comic by Bill Holbrook, October 9, 2022, via Comics Kingdom, fair use.

Yes, this is old. It just cropped up on my radar:

In 2019 it was revealed that the Dutch tax authorities had used a self-learning algorithm to create risk profiles in an effort to spot child care benefits fraud.

Authorities penalized families over a mere suspicion of fraud based on the system’s risk indicators. Tens of thousands of families — often with lower incomes or belonging to ethnic minorities — were pushed into poverty because of exorbitant debts to the tax agency. Some victims committed suicide. More than a thousand children were taken into foster care.^[2]

And they were wrong. Not only were they wrong, but they were cruel, heartless bigots in being wrong.^[3] To which, all I can say is, What the fuck did I tell you about artificial idiocy?^[4] But absolute fucking idiots, whether artificial or human, will be absolute fucking idiots.

Melissa Heikkilä, “Dutch scandal serves as a warning for Europe over risks of using algorithms,” Politico, March 29, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/dutch-scandal-serves-as-a-warning-for-europe-over-risks-of-using-algorithms/

Pittsburgh

Infrastructure

Fig. 3. Post-collapse scene at the Fern Hollow Bridge, photograph by National Transportation Safety Board, January 29, 2022, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

The speed with which a pedestrian bridge that had been damaged by a collision^[5] was removed stands in stunning contrast to the innumerable road projects around Pittsburgh where, I swear, they all act as if those jobs are the last they’ll ever get, and are milking them for every last penny. Even when it appears they have finished something, this appearance is deceptive, as they’re back at it within a month. These projects never, ever fucking end and there isn’t any apparent accountability.

Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, “‘Take Bigelow’: Boulevard is open after emergency removal of pedestrian bridge,” October 8, 2022, https://triblive.com/local/take-bigelow-boulevard-is-open-after-emergency-removal-of-pedestrian-bridge/

Ukraine

Fig. 4. “Destroyed Russian military vehicles located on the main street Khreshchatyk are seen as part of the celebration of the Independence Day of Ukraine in Kyiv, August 24.” Photograph by Gleb Garanich for Reuters, August 24, 2022,^[6] fair use.

John Gambrell and Adam Schreck, “Russia withdraws troops from once-occupied Lyman as Ukraine recaptures more territory,” Los Angeles Times, October 1, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-10-01/ukraine-encircles-strategic-eastern-city-of-lyman-in-counteroffensive-against-russia

Luke Harding, “Humiliation for Vladimir Putin as Ukrainians liberate key city of Lyman,” Guardian, October 1, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/01/humiliation-for-vladimir-putin-as-ukrainians-liberate-key-city-of-lyman

Isabelle Khurshudyan et al., “Russian troops withdraw from Lyman, a day after annexation claims,” Washington Post, October 1, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/01/ukaine-russia-lyman-donetsk-annexation/

Liz Sly, “Russia’s annexation puts world ‘two or three steps away’ from nuclear war,” Washington Post, October 1, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/01/europe-putin-nuclear-threats/

Lewis Page, “Why Putin would be a fool to go nuclear in Ukraine,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/02/why-putin-would-fool-go-nuclear-ukraine/

Ishaan Tharoor, “Annexations show the depth of Putin’s imperial delusion,” Washington Post, October 5, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/10/05/putin-colonial-imperial-delusion/

Charlie Cooper, “Coal built the EU. Will gas destroy it?” Politico, October 6, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/prague-summit-enegy-gas-eu-ukraine-war-russia-vladimir-putin/

^[1]Andrew Rawnsley, “Johnson was slow-poisoning arsenic for the Conservatives. Liz Truss is instant cyanide,” Guardian, October 9, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/09/johnson-was-slow-poisoning-arsenic-for-tories-liz-truss-is-instant-cyanide ↩
^[2]Melissa Heikkilä, “Dutch scandal serves as a warning for Europe over risks of using algorithms,” Politico, March 29, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/dutch-scandal-serves-as-a-warning-for-europe-over-risks-of-using-algorithms/↩
^[3]Melissa Heikkilä, “Dutch scandal serves as a warning for Europe over risks of using algorithms,” Politico, March 29, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/dutch-scandal-serves-as-a-warning-for-europe-over-risks-of-using-algorithms/↩
^[4]David Benfell, “Our new Satan: artificial idiocy and big data mining,” Not Housebroken, April 5, 2021, https://disunitedstates.org/2020/01/13/our-new-satan-artificial-idiocy-and-big-data-mining/↩
^[5]Ryan Deto, “Pittsburgh to tear down pedestrian bridge over Bigelow Boulevard after crane boom strikes it,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, October 7, 2022, https://triblive.com/local/pittsburgh-to-tear-down-pedestrian-bridge-over-bigelow-boulevard-after-crane-boom-strikes-it/; Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Bigelow Boulevard closed in Polish Hill after crane strikes pedestrian bridge,” October 7, 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/local/city/2022/10/07/bigelow-boulevard-closed-pedestrian-bridge-crane-collision-detour-penndot/stories/202210070090 ↩
^[6]Reuters, “Ukraine puts destroyed Russian tanks on display in Kyiv,” August 25, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/ukraine-puts-destroyed-russian-tanks-on-idUSRTSALV9Q ↩

It is a good day for bridges to come down

October 8, 2022benfell

Pittsburgh

Infrastructure

Fig. 1. Post-collapse scene at the Fern Hollow Bridge, photograph by National Transportation Safety Board, January 29, 2022, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Bigelow Boulevard is the main route around the Hill District. It has a 35 mile per hour speed limit but most people are doing, at the barest minimum, 15 over that; 20 to 25 over are not unusual. The suggested detours,^[1] except for the Bloomfield Bridge itself, are all already heavily traveled two-lane roads. This is gonna be ugly.

Ryan Deto, “Pittsburgh to tear down pedestrian bridge over Bigelow Boulevard after crane boom strikes it,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, October 7, 2022, https://triblive.com/local/pittsburgh-to-tear-down-pedestrian-bridge-over-bigelow-boulevard-after-crane-boom-strikes-it/

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Bigelow Boulevard closed in Polish Hill after crane strikes pedestrian bridge,” October 7, 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/local/city/2022/10/07/bigelow-boulevard-closed-pedestrian-bridge-crane-collision-detour-penndot/stories/202210070090

Ukraine

Fig. 2. “The atomic cloud over Nagasaki 1945.” Photograph from Office for Emergency Management. Office of War Information. Overseas Operations Branch, New York Office, News and Features Bureau, (12/17/1942 – 09/15/1945), by Charles Levy, August 9, 1945, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

[Joe] Biden believes that only strength will keep [Vladimir] Putin from going to extremes. Jake Sullivan, the U.S. president’s national security adviser, recently warned of “catastrophic consequences” if Putin were to actually use nuclear weapons. No active military official wants to speak openly about what those consequences might be. But among experts, a massive U.S. conventional strike is considered likely if Putin were to detonate a tactical nuclear weapon. Earlier this week, former CIA head David Petraeus described quite concretely what an American response might look like. The former general believes a devastating U.S. military strike on the Russians’ Black Sea fleet is conceivable. Military sources say there is also talk of further arming the Ukrainians with additional missile launchers or even medium-range missiles. If this went hand in hand with the provision of significantly more targeting information by U.S. intelligence agencies, the scenario goes, the Ukrainians could inflict even more painful casualties on the Russian invaders than they have so far.^[2]

Meanwhile, there was an explosion on the Kerch Bridge, built between Russia and Crimea and inaugurated by Vladimir Putin in 2018. Ukrainian officials stop just short of claiming responsibility, even as they celebrate it. Some Russian officials were quick to blame Ukraine but the Kremlin itself seems more reticent, only blaming a truck bomb which ignited rail cars carrying oil and promising an investigation.^[3]

My suspicion is that the Kremlin does not want to admit that Ukrainian forces may have the reach to launch such an attack. But I do not know.

Lewis Page, “Why Putin would be a fool to go nuclear in Ukraine,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/02/why-putin-would-fool-go-nuclear-ukraine/

Ishaan Tharoor, “Annexations show the depth of Putin’s imperial delusion,” Washington Post, October 5, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/10/05/putin-colonial-imperial-delusion/

Charlie Cooper, “Coal built the EU. Will gas destroy it?” Politico, October 6, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/prague-summit-enegy-gas-eu-ukraine-war-russia-vladimir-putin/

^[1]Ryan Deto, “Pittsburgh to tear down pedestrian bridge over Bigelow Boulevard after crane boom strikes it,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, October 7, 2022, https://triblive.com/local/pittsburgh-to-tear-down-pedestrian-bridge-over-bigelow-boulevard-after-crane-boom-strikes-it/; Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Bigelow Boulevard closed in Polish Hill after crane strikes pedestrian bridge,” October 7, 2022, https://www.post-gazette.com/local/city/2022/10/07/bigelow-boulevard-closed-pedestrian-bridge-crane-collision-detour-penndot/stories/202210070090 ↩
^[2]Christian Esch et al., “Berlin and Washington Play Out Nuclear Scenarios,” Spiegel, October 7, 2022, https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/berlin-and-washington-play-out-scenarios-of-a-nuclear-strike-by-putin-a-ecbc1772-8526-4ce1-ae0d-7270309df54e ↩
^[3]Adam Schreck and Vasilisa Stepanenko, “Explosion on Crimean bridge damages key Russian supply route; 3 dead,” Los Angeles Times, October 8, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-10-08/truck-bomb-damages-crimea-bridge-a-key-supply-artery-for-russias-war-effort; Times of Israel, “Russia says truck bomb caused Crimea bridge explosion, stops short of blaming Kyiv,” October 8, 2022, https://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-says-truck-blast-caused-crimea-bridge-explosion-stops-short-of-blaming-kyiv/; Yaroslav Trofimov, “Major Explosion Hits the Bridge Between Crimea and Russia, Halting Traffic,” Wall Street Journal, October 8, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/major-explosion-hits-the-bridge-between-crimea-and-russia-halting-traffic-11665215052 ↩

Be careful what you ask for in Russia. You just might get it.

October 7, 2022benfell

Ukraine

Fig. 1. “Destroyed Russian military vehicles located on the main street Khreshchatyk are seen as part of the celebration of the Independence Day of Ukraine in Kyiv, August 24.” Photograph by Gleb Garanich for Reuters, August 24, 2022,^[1] fair use.

Note: The following text has been repeatedly updated in an update to my blog posts “Where does Vladimir Putin stop?” and “Nuclear survival.”

When last I checked in on Ukraine, I wrote,

It’s safe to say that Vladimir Putin has well and truly fucked himself. His conventional forces are largely helpless, lacking the leadership to respond effectively to Ukrainian strategy, tactics, and maneuver.^[2] Even his nuclear threats are really rather hollow.^[3] He makes decisions and gives orders from desperation and delusion.^[4]

This is not by any means the picture of a winner. The only remaining question is how ugly a loser he is.^[5]

That question is looming larger as Vladimir Putin only digs himself in deeper, committing himself to victory even as Ukraine defeats him on the battlefield:

We are trying to figure out, what is Putin’s off-ramp? Where does he find a way out? Where does he find himself where he does not only lose face but significant power?^[6]

Putin is, by far, not the only political leader to confound his country’s survival with his own. And so, when we hear Russian talk of an ‘existential’ situation, one question that must be asked is whether we are really hearing about what is ‘existential’ for Russia or what is ‘existential’ for Putin. As we hear more talk of a possible removal of Putin,^[7] it is more than reasonable to suspect the latter.

Delusion can, so the argument goes, only take Putin so far. At some point reality must catch up with him, even ensconced behind the Kremlin walls. And so it looks increasingly likely that Evgenia Markovna Albats is right and that her forecast of Putin’s fall, perhaps by springtime,^[8] may be borne out sooner, rather than later.^[9] Albats warned that a junta would lack legitimacy and be short term.^[10] In a more orderly transition, it seems that much the same would be true of Putin’s immediate successor. What chaos then?^[11]

The next few months will teach us something. But Ukrainians have already paid a staggering price for that lesson and ordinary Russians might as well. Then there’s the entire world:

[Joe] Biden said the prospect of defeat could make [Vladimir] Putin desperate enough to use nuclear weapons, the biggest risk since U.S. President John Kennedy and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev faced off over missiles in Cuba in 1962.

“We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis,” Biden said in New York.

Putin was “not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons, because his military is, you might say, is significantly underperforming,” Biden said.^[12]

Joe Biden also expressed doubt that “there’s any such thing as the ability to easily [use] a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon.”^[13]

It’s a curious point that Lewis Page did not consider the classic understanding of nuclear war in his analysis of Putin’s nuclear options, observing that the West has responses that would devastate the Russian war effort in Ukraine short of using nuclear weapons.^[14]

Just today, President [Vladimir] Putin has made overt nuclear threats against Europe, in a reckless disregard for the responsibilities of the nonproliferation regime. A nuclear war cannot be won. And must never be fought.^[15]

The classic understanding, of course, is all-out nuclear war, with everybody launching everything they’ve got at each other. The scenario includes the possibility of an accidental or otherwise limited nuclear attack, with escalating responses on each side until both nuclear arsenals are depleted. It is also, among other things, the preemptive strike the hardline anti-communists advocated early in the Cold War,^[16] in the hope but with little assurance that enough Amerikkkans would survive to preserve the U.S. political and economic system.

Page is far from alone. I don’t think anyone in the present context has seriously contemplated the possibility of Armageddon, all-out nuclear war. In my discussion of the matter, this was the abandon-all-hope scenario,^[17] and as such I don’t see how we can profitably consider it, other than, as I interpret Biden, as a terrifying risk.^[18]

But because this Armageddon was the general Cold War understanding, it’s easy to understand the 79-year old Biden invoking it. Indeed, the fear of such underlies my entire post, as updated, on the topic.^[19]

The question, as it has been from the beginning of Russian rhetoric about the Ukraine war as ‘existential,’ indeed as “part of a larger existential fight against [the North Atlantic Treaty Organization],”^[20] is how ‘existential,’ really? Is it really so ‘existential’ that the Russians will launch nuclear weapons, even all-out nuclear war? Or is it, as I and I think most analysts have postulated, just a bad bluff?^[21]

This is another lesson yet to be learned.

CNN, “The turning points in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” September 30, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2022/09/europe/russia-territory-control-ukraine-shift-dg/

Ann M. Simmons and Yuliya Chernova, “Russia Announces Annexation of Four Regions of Ukraine,” Wall Street Journal, September 30, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-prepares-treaties-to-annex-ukrainian-land-11664536196

Eli Stokols, “U.S. sanctions Russia after Putin annexes parts of Ukraine,” Los Angeles Times, September 30, 2022, https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2022-09-30/u-s-sanctions-russia-after-putin-annexes-ukraine

Lewis Page, “Why Putin would be a fool to go nuclear in Ukraine,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/02/why-putin-would-fool-go-nuclear-ukraine/

Ishaan Tharoor, “Annexations show the depth of Putin’s imperial delusion,” Washington Post, October 5, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/10/05/putin-colonial-imperial-delusion/

^[1]Reuters, “Ukraine puts destroyed Russian tanks on display in Kyiv,” August 25, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/ukraine-puts-destroyed-russian-tanks-on-idUSRTSALV9Q ↩
^[2]Luke Harding, Isobel Koshiw, and Peter Beaumont, “Russia no longer has full control of any of four ‘annexed’ Ukrainian provinces,” Guardian, October 3, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/03/russia-has-no-full-control-of-any-of-four-annexed-ukrainian-provinces; Mary Ilyushina, Emily Rauhala, and Isabelle Khurshudyan, “Ukraine hammers Russian forces into retreat on east and south fronts,” Washington Post, October 4, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/04/russia-retreat-kherson-lyman-ukraine/; Dominic Nicholls, “Russia’s bloated military has finally been properly tested – and the results are not good,” Telegraph, October 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/03/ukraines-lyman-victory-shows-skill-trumps-numbers-when-comes/↩
^[3]Lewis Page, “Why Putin would be a fool to go nuclear in Ukraine,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/02/why-putin-would-fool-go-nuclear-ukraine/↩
^[4]Farida Rustamova, “Vladimir Putin is making rash and secretive decisions in face of defeats, Kremlin insiders warn,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/02/vladimir-putin-making-rash-secretive-decisions-face-defeats/↩
^[5]David Benfell, “Where does Vladimir Putin stop?” Not Housebroken, October 4, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/04/where-does-vladimir-putin-stop/↩
^[6]Joe Biden, quoted in Yasmeen Abutaleb, “Biden suggests Putin’s nuclear threats mean a ‘prospect of Armageddon,’” Washington Post, October 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/06/biden-putin-nuclear-armageddon/↩
^[7]Robyn Dixon, “As Ukraine war falters, Russians ask a risky question: Could Putin fall?” Washington Post, October 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/06/putin-successor-president-russia-war/; Julia Ioffe, “Fear and Loathing in Moscow,” Puck News, September 13, 2022, https://puck.news/fear-and-loathing-in-moscow/; Greg Miller et al., “Putin confronted by insider over Ukraine war, U.S. intelligence finds,” Washington Post, October 7, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/07/putin-inner-circle-dissent/↩
^[8]Julia Ioffe, “Fear and Loathing in Moscow,” Puck News, September 13, 2022, https://puck.news/fear-and-loathing-in-moscow/↩
^[9]Robyn Dixon, “As Ukraine war falters, Russians ask a risky question: Could Putin fall?” Washington Post, October 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/06/putin-successor-president-russia-war/↩
^[10]Julia Ioffe, “Fear and Loathing in Moscow,” Puck News, September 13, 2022, https://puck.news/fear-and-loathing-in-moscow/↩
^[11]Robyn Dixon, “As Ukraine war falters, Russians ask a risky question: Could Putin fall?” Washington Post, October 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/06/putin-successor-president-russia-war/↩
^[12]Nandita Bose and Pavel Polityuk, “Biden says Putin’s nuclear threat brings risk of ‘Armageddon,’” Reuters, October 7, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-forces-break-through-russian-defences-south-advance-east-2022-10-03/↩
^[13]Joe Biden, quoted in Yasmeen Abutaleb, “Biden suggests Putin’s nuclear threats mean a ‘prospect of Armageddon,’” Washington Post, October 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/06/biden-putin-nuclear-armageddon/↩
^[14]Lewis Page, “Why Putin would be a fool to go nuclear in Ukraine,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/02/why-putin-would-fool-go-nuclear-ukraine/↩
^[15]Joe Biden, quoted in Yasmeen Abutaleb, “Biden suggests Putin’s nuclear threats mean a ‘prospect of Armageddon,’” Washington Post, October 6, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/06/biden-putin-nuclear-armageddon/↩
^[16]George H. Nash, The Conservative Intellectual Movement in America Since 1945 (Wilmington, DE: Intercollegiate Studies Institute, 2006).↩
^[17]David Benfell, “Nuclear survival,” Not Housebroken, October 4, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/13/nuclear-survival/↩
^[18]Nandita Bose and Pavel Polityuk, “Biden says Putin’s nuclear threat brings risk of ‘Armageddon,’” Reuters, October 7, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-forces-break-through-russian-defences-south-advance-east-2022-10-03/↩
^[19]David Benfell, “Nuclear survival,” Not Housebroken, October 4, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/13/nuclear-survival/↩
^[20]Robyn Dixon, “Russia moves toward annexing Ukraine regions in a major escalation,” Washington Post, September 20, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/20/russia-referendum-annexation-luhansk-donetsk-kherson-ukraine/↩
^[21]David Benfell, “Nuclear survival,” Not Housebroken, October 4, 2022, https://disunitedstates.org/2022/03/13/nuclear-survival/↩

The Department of Justice wants all the classified records back

October 6, 2022benfell

Interspecies Relationships

There is a new blog post entitled, “A requiem for roadkill.”

Leslie Jamison, “The Bear’s Kiss,” New York Review, October 20, 2022, https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2022/10/20/the-bears-kiss-in-the-eye-of-the-wild/

Gilead

Donald Trump

Coup attempt

Fig. 1. Department of Justice photograph of seized materials, reportedly partially redacted, via the Washington Post, August 31, 2022, public domain.^[1]

In a late-breaking story, the Department of Justice has asked Donald Trump’s lawyers to have him return any classified materials he still possesses.^[2]

It is not clear what steps the Justice Department might take to retrieve any material it thinks Mr. Trump still holds.

And it is not known whether the Justice Department has gathered new evidence that Mr. Trump has held onto government material even after the court-authorized search in August of his private club and residence in Florida, Mar-a-Lago, and 18 months of previous efforts by the federal government to convince the former president to return what he had taken on leaving office.^[3]

It appears that while divided, Trump’s legal team will resist the request.^[4]

Michael S. Schmidt, Maggie Haberman, and Katie Benner, “Justice Dept. Is Said to Believe Trump Has More Documents,” New York Times, October 6, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/06/us/politics/trump-white-house-documents-lawyers.html

^[1]Devlin Barrett, “Justice Dept. says Trump team may have hidden, moved classified papers,” Washington Post, August 31, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/31/trump-documents-removed-storage-room/↩
^[2]Michael S. Schmidt, Maggie Haberman, and Katie Benner, “Justice Dept. Is Said to Believe Trump Has More Documents,” New York Times, October 6, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/06/us/politics/trump-white-house-documents-lawyers.html ↩
^[3]Michael S. Schmidt, Maggie Haberman, and Katie Benner, “Justice Dept. Is Said to Believe Trump Has More Documents,” New York Times, October 6, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/06/us/politics/trump-white-house-documents-lawyers.html ↩
^[4]Michael S. Schmidt, Maggie Haberman, and Katie Benner, “Justice Dept. Is Said to Believe Trump Has More Documents,” New York Times, October 6, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/06/us/politics/trump-white-house-documents-lawyers.html ↩

You’ve heard of greenwashing? How about genderwashing?

October 5, 2022October 5, 2022benfell

Ukraine

Sarah Cahlan et al., “Russians rebel as Putin drafts more people in battle for Ukraine,” Washington Post, September 29, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/29/russia-putin-mobilization-protests-fury/

Drew Hinshaw, Matthew Dalton, and Laurence Norman, “NATO Formally Blames Sabotage for Nord Stream Pipeline Damage,” Wall Street Journal, September 29, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-formally-blames-sabotage-for-nord-stream-pipeline-damage-11664449396

CNN, “The turning points in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” September 30, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2022/09/europe/russia-territory-control-ukraine-shift-dg/

Lewis Page, “Why Putin would be a fool to go nuclear in Ukraine,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/02/why-putin-would-fool-go-nuclear-ukraine/

Ishaan Tharoor, “Annexations show the depth of Putin’s imperial delusion,” Washington Post, October 5, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/10/05/putin-colonial-imperial-delusion/

Illiberalism

Fig. 1. Photograph by Joachim F. Thurn, August 1991, Bundesarchiv, B 145 Bild-F089030-0003, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0 DE

Molly Jong-Fast calls it genderwashing:^[2]

Just as the so-called girlbosses of the mid-2010s were actually just normal capitalists with boobs, cosplay feminists like Meloni—along with France’s Marine Le Pen, Germany’s Alice Weidel, Denmark’s Pia Kjærsgaard, and Norway’s Siv Jensen, for instance—are really far-right figureheads, with some of them selling misogynist fantasies about “family values,” the “Great Replacement” theory, and anxiety about “Islamification.” These women are pseudo-feminist window dressing, as lacking in pro-woman substance as the GOP post-primary pivot; they’re a mirage. They are a way to trick voters into supporting something they would otherwise not.^[3]

Molly Jong-Fast, “The Far Right’s Fake Feminist Gambit,” Atlantic, October 5, 2022, https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/wait-what/633de0b7f7ff68003847ccce/giorgia-meloni-italy-far-right-feminism/

Twitter

William D. Cohan, “Studio $54.20,” Puck News, October 5, 2022, https://puck.news/studio-54-20/

^[1]Reuters, “Ukraine puts destroyed Russian tanks on display in Kyiv,” August 25, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/ukraine-puts-destroyed-russian-tanks-on-idUSRTSALV9Q ↩
^[2]Molly Jong-Fast, “The Far Right’s Fake Feminist Gambit,” Atlantic, October 5, 2022, https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/wait-what/633de0b7f7ff68003847ccce/giorgia-meloni-italy-far-right-feminism/↩
^[3]Molly Jong-Fast, “The Far Right’s Fake Feminist Gambit,” Atlantic, October 5, 2022, https://newsletters.theatlantic.com/wait-what/633de0b7f7ff68003847ccce/giorgia-meloni-italy-far-right-feminism/↩

A Tory ‘coup’ against Liz Truss?

October 4, 2022benfell

(dis)United Kingdom

Prime minister

On another chaotic day at the Conservative party conference, ministerial discipline broke down, with cabinet colleagues disagreeing over key policies and bitter infighting over the decision to scrap plans to ditch the top rate of tax.

In some of the most provocative remarks, Suella Braverman said she was “disappointed” by the U-turn – and suggested Tory MPs were trying to overthrow Truss’s government.^[1]

Jill Lawless, “UK scraps tax cut for wealthy that sparked market turmoil,” Associated Press, October 3, 2022, https://apnews.com/article/business-financial-markets-liz-truss-0acea0ad013e41524c8be3981654b922

Rowena Mason et al., “Truss’s cabinet in open warfare over key policies and coup accusations,” Guardian, October 4, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/04/kwasi-kwarteng-fiscal-plan-date-thrown-into-confusion

Gilead

Donald Trump

Coup attempt

Fig. 2. Department of Justice photograph of seized materials, reportedly partially redacted, via the Washington Post, August 31, 2022, public domain.^[2]

CNN senior legal analyst Elie Honig said the appeal is intended to delay the Justice Department’s investigation into the former President, if possible.

“This is part of the delay strategy,” Honig said on CNN’s “The Lead with Jake Tapper,” noting [Donald] Trump lost at the appeals court. “So either he accepts that loss and those documents don’t go to the special master and they go right over to [the Department of Justice], or his only remaining recourse is to try to get the Supreme Court to take it, and that’s the course he’s taking now.”^[3]

David Smith, “Republicans’ lawless leaders at odds with midterm law and order message,” Guardian, October 3, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/03/republicans-law-order-midterm-election-investigations-scandals

Tierney Sneed, “Trump goes to Supreme Court over Mar-a-Lago search and seizure of documents,” CNN, October 4, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/04/politics/trump-supreme-court-mar-a-lago-appeal/index.html

^[1]Rowena Mason et al., “Truss’s cabinet in open warfare over key policies and coup accusations,” Guardian, October 4, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/04/kwasi-kwarteng-fiscal-plan-date-thrown-into-confusion ↩
^[2]Devlin Barrett, “Justice Dept. says Trump team may have hidden, moved classified papers,” Washington Post, August 31, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/08/31/trump-documents-removed-storage-room/↩
^[3]Tierney Sneed, “Trump goes to Supreme Court over Mar-a-Lago search and seizure of documents,” CNN, October 4, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/04/politics/trump-supreme-court-mar-a-lago-appeal/index.html ↩

Donald Trump worried about what Ghislaine Maxwell might say (updated)

October 4, 2022October 4, 2022benfell

Gilead

Gun nuttery

Fig. 1. Foxtrot comic strip by Bill Amend, August 21, 2022, via GoComics, fair use.

Andrew Chung, “U.S. Supreme Court rejects challenge to ban on gun ‘bump stocks,’ Reuters, October 3, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-supreme-court-rejects-challenge-ban-gun-bump-stocks-2022-10-03/

Robert Moran, “Judge bars Philadelphia from enforcing Mayor Jim Kenney’s ban on guns at rec centers and playgrounds,” Philadelphia Inquirer, October 3, 2022, https://www.inquirer.com/news/philadelphia/gun-violence-ban-kenney-rec-center-lawsuit-executive-order-preemption-20221003.html

Jeffrey Epstein

Martin Pengelly, “

Fig. 1. “Donald Trump with his future wife Melania Knauss, Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell at Mar-a-Lago in February 2000.” Photograph credited to Davidoff Studios Photography/Getty Images, February 2000,^[1] fair use.

According to a new book by Maggie Haberman of the New York Times, [Donald] Trump asked “campaign advisers … ‘You see that article in the [New York] Post today that mentioned me?’

“He kept going, to silence. ‘She say anything about me?’” . . .

The story which seemed to worry Trump, according to Haberman, appeared in the celebrity-focused Page Six section of the New York tabloid on 4 July 2020.

It quoted Steve Hoffenberg, an Epstein associate, as saying: “Ghislaine thought she was untouchable – that she’d be protected by the intelligence communities she and Jeffrey helped with information: the Israeli intelligence services, and Les Wexner, who has given millions to Israel; by Prince Andrew, President Clinton and even by President Trump, who was well-known to be an acquaintance of her and Epstein’s.”^[2]

Martin Pengelly, “‘She say anything about me?’ Trump raised Ghislaine Maxwell link with aides,” Guardian, October 4, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/oct/04/trump-ghislaine-maxwell-epstein-maggie-haberman-book-confidence-man

Ukraine

“The Ukrainian armed forces commanders in the south and east are throwing problems at the Russian chain of command faster than the Russians can effectively respond,” said a Western official who requested anonymity to brief reporters about sensitive security information. “And this is compounding the existing dysfunction within the Russian invasion force.”^[4]

I get Telegraph newsletters. I have access because, yes, I subscribe. And despite their cringeworthy—somehow not nearly a strong enough word—early embrace of Liz Truss (the shine has come off now and, yeah, that was fast), they often have coverage I haven’t found elsewhere. I wish I could reproduce more of their newsletters for you; one of them includes “dispatches” from Ukraine, which tell something of what’s happening on the ground there.

It’s safe to say that Vladimir Putin has well and truly fucked himself. His conventional forces are largely helpless, lacking the leadership to respond effectively to Ukrainian strategy, tactics, and maneuver.^[5] Even his nuclear threats are really rather hollow.^[6] He makes decisions and gives orders from desperation and delusion.^[7]

This is not by any means the picture of a winner. The only remaining question is how ugly a loser he is.

Michael Horovitz, “Medvedev asserts Russia’s ‘right’ to use nukes to defend its territory,” Times of Israel, September 27, 2022, https://www.timesofisrael.com/medvedev-affirms-russias-right-to-use-nukes-to-defend-its-territory/

Julia Ioffe, “Putin’s Male Fragility,” Puck News, September 27, 2022, https://puck.news/putins-male-fragility/

Anatol Lieven, “Putin’s regime may fall – but what would come next?” Guardian, September 27, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/27/putin-regime-fall-ukraine-west-negotiate

Agence France-Presse, “‘Full chaos’: Over 100,000 Russians flood neighboring countries to flee army call-up,” Times of Israel, September 28, 2022, https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-chaos-over-100000-russians-flood-neighboring-countries-to-flee-army/

Bloomberg, “Putin Raises Gas-Cutoff Threat as He Moves to Annex Ukraine Regions,” September 28, 2022, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/putin-raises-gas-pressure-as-he-moves-to-annex-ukraine-regions

Jennifer Hansler, “US Embassy warns Americans to leave Russia,” CNN, September 28, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/28/politics/us-embassy-russia-warns-americans-leave/index.html

Meg Kelly and Michael Birnbaum, “E.U. warns of ‘robust’ response against sabotage after Nord Stream blasts,” Washington Post, September 28, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/28/nord-stream-russia-methane-leak-baltic-sea/

Times of Israel, “Suspecting Nord Stream sabotage, EU vows ‘robust’ response to energy network attacks,” September 28, 2022, https://www.timesofisrael.com/suspecting-nord-stream-sabotage-eu-vows-robust-response-to-energy-network-attacks/

CNN, “The turning points in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” September 30, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2022/09/europe/russia-territory-control-ukraine-shift-dg/

Lewis Page, “Why Putin would be a fool to go nuclear in Ukraine,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/02/why-putin-would-fool-go-nuclear-ukraine/

Twitter

It appears Elon Musk may honor his original deal after all.^[8] This about covers it:

“This is a clear sign that [Elon] Musk recognized heading into Delaware Court that the chances of winning vs. Twitter board was highly unlikely and this $44 billion deal was going to be completed one way or another,” wrote Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives. “Being forced to do the deal after a long and ugly court battle in Delaware was not an ideal scenario and instead accepting this path and moving forward with the deal will save a massive legal headache.”^[9]

Of course, buying a company that everyone, including that company’s employees, knows you had decided you didn’t want is “not an ideal scenario” either.

Emily Bary, “Twitter stock jumps after report says Elon Musk now wants to buy Twitter at original offer price,” MarketWatch, October 4, 2022, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/twitter-stock-jumps-after-report-says-elon-musk-proposed-to-buy-twitter-at-original-offer-price-11664900696

^[1]Martin Pengelly, “‘She say anything about me?’ Trump raised Ghislaine Maxwell link with aides,” Guardian, October 4, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/oct/04/trump-ghislaine-maxwell-epstein-maggie-haberman-book-confidence-man ↩
^[2]Martin Pengelly, “‘She say anything about me?’ Trump raised Ghislaine Maxwell link with aides,” Guardian, October 4, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/oct/04/trump-ghislaine-maxwell-epstein-maggie-haberman-book-confidence-man ↩
^[3]Reuters, “Ukraine puts destroyed Russian tanks on display in Kyiv,” August 25, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/ukraine-puts-destroyed-russian-tanks-on-idUSRTSALV9Q ↩
^[4]Mary Ilyushina, Emily Rauhala, and Isabelle Khurshudyan, “Ukraine hammers Russian forces into retreat on east and south fronts,” Washington Post, October 4, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/04/russia-retreat-kherson-lyman-ukraine/↩
^[5]Luke Harding, Isobel Koshiw, and Peter Beaumont, “Russia no longer has full control of any of four ‘annexed’ Ukrainian provinces,” Guardian, October 3, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/03/russia-has-no-full-control-of-any-of-four-annexed-ukrainian-provinces; Mary Ilyushina, Emily Rauhala, and Isabelle Khurshudyan, “Ukraine hammers Russian forces into retreat on east and south fronts,” Washington Post, October 4, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/04/russia-retreat-kherson-lyman-ukraine/; Dominic Nicholls, “Russia’s bloated military has finally been properly tested – and the results are not good,” Telegraph, October 3, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/03/ukraines-lyman-victory-shows-skill-trumps-numbers-when-comes/↩
^[6]Lewis Page, “Why Putin would be a fool to go nuclear in Ukraine,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/02/why-putin-would-fool-go-nuclear-ukraine/↩
^[7]Farida Rustamova, “Vladimir Putin is making rash and secretive decisions in face of defeats, Kremlin insiders warn,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/02/vladimir-putin-making-rash-secretive-decisions-face-defeats/↩
^[8]Emily Bary, “Twitter stock jumps after report says Elon Musk now wants to buy Twitter at original offer price,” MarketWatch, October 4, 2022, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/twitter-stock-jumps-after-report-says-elon-musk-proposed-to-buy-twitter-at-original-offer-price-11664900696 ↩
^[9]Emily Bary, “Twitter stock jumps after report says Elon Musk now wants to buy Twitter at original offer price,” MarketWatch, October 4, 2022, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/twitter-stock-jumps-after-report-says-elon-musk-proposed-to-buy-twitter-at-original-offer-price-11664900696 ↩

And now the advance toward Crimea

October 4, 2022October 4, 2022benfell

Ukraine

Those who suggest that #Ukraine should appease #Russia in the name of "peace," a "peace" that is not of justice, I do most definitely see you. Whatever "progressive" credentials you claim, you are imperialists and you will be remembered for this.https://t.co/Urbhht7fqi

— David Benfell, Ph.D. (Public) (@BenfellPhD) October 4, 2022

Russian military bloggers suggested Ukraine’s advance was spectacular. They claimed Kyiv’s troops were close to Dudchany, about 20 miles (30km) south of where the front stood before the breakthrough, indicating one of the fastest advances of the war.^[2]

Ishaan Tharoor, “The right-wing turn against Ukraine may be around the corner,” Washington Post, September 26, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/09/26/ukraine-west-right-wing-fatigue-italy/

Julia Ioffe, “Putin’s Male Fragility,” Puck News, September 27, 2022, https://puck.news/putins-male-fragility/

Jennifer Hansler, “US Embassy warns Americans to leave Russia,” CNN, September 28, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/28/politics/us-embassy-russia-warns-americans-leave/index.html

CNN, “The turning points in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” September 30, 2022, https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2022/09/europe/russia-territory-control-ukraine-shift-dg/

Lewis Page, “Why Putin would be a fool to go nuclear in Ukraine,” Telegraph, October 2, 2022, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/02/why-putin-would-fool-go-nuclear-ukraine/

Illiberalism

Fig. 1. Photograph by Joachim F. Thurn, August 1991, Bundesarchiv, B 145 Bild-F089030-0003, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0 DE

Tom Phillips, Andrew Downie, and Ana Ionova, “Brazil election: ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to face Jair Bolsonaro in run-off,” Guardian, October 2, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/02/brazil-election-ex-president-luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva-wins-vote-but-not-outright-victory-jair-bolsonaro

Barbara Moens and Cornelius Hirsch, “How the far-right got out of the doghouse,” Politico, October 3, 2022, https://www.politico.eu/article/the-far-right-is-out-of-the-doghouse/

Adam Taylor, “Why Bolsonaro and the global right-wing love to hate on election polls,” Washington Post, October 3, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/10/03/bolsonaro-brazil-polls-trump/

Inquiry

Quantitative

Surveys

Fig. 1. Graph showing the deterioration of response rates by the Pew Research Center, February 27, 2019, fair use.^[3]

To many inside and outside Brazil, [Jair] Bolsonaro’s surprise showing is about more than just one election: It’s evidence that the far right is undervalued by polls globally, echoing claims in other parts of the world.

“Polls are broken. They are undercounting right-wing support. And it’s vital this be fixed to maintain credibility,” the Brazil-based journalist Glenn Greenwald, a firm critic of Bolsonaro, tweeted on Monday.

“THE SILENT MAJORITY IS BACK!!!” former president Donald Trump wrote on the right-wing social network Truth Social on Sunday evening. He later wrote that Bolsonaro had beaten “inaccurate early Fake News Media polls.”

Besting the work of professional pollsters has long been a badge of honor for the former U.S. president. In 2016, before he was elected, Trump dubbed himself “Mr. Brexit” — an apparent reference to not only the incendiary politics surrounding the British referendum to leave the European Union but also the widespread idea that polls had missed the outcome of that vote.

Trump did indeed beat the pollsters in 2016 — and again in 2020. He lost the latter election but it still prompted something of a reckoning in the polling industry. One industry panel later said the surveys ahead of the 2020 presidential election were the most inaccurate in 40 years.^[4]

^[1]Reuters, “Ukraine puts destroyed Russian tanks on display in Kyiv,” August 25, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/ukraine-puts-destroyed-russian-tanks-on-idUSRTSALV9Q ↩
^[2]Luke Harding, Isobel Koshiw, and Peter Beaumont, “Russia no longer has full control of any of four ‘annexed’ Ukrainian provinces,” Guardian, October 3, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/03/russia-has-no-full-control-of-any-of-four-annexed-ukrainian-provinces ↩
^[3]Courtney Kennedy and Hannah Hartig, “Response rates in telephone surveys have resumed their decline,” Pew Research Center, February 27, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/27/response-rates-in-telephone-surveys-have-resumed-their-decline/↩
^[4]Adam Taylor, “Why Bolsonaro and the global right-wing love to hate on election polls,” Washington Post, October 3, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com//world/2022/10/03/bolsonaro-brazil-polls-trump/↩

Common Pleas Judge John T. McVay Jr. issued his opinion Friday, finding that the plaintiff in the case, the Italian Sons and Daughters of America, could not point to any case law supporting its position that it can limit the mayor or the mayor’s art advisory committee on what to do with city-owned monuments on city-owned land.^[2]

Paula Reed Ward, “Judge: Pittsburgh officials have right to remove Christopher Columbus statue in Schenley Park,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, October 3, 2021, https://triblive.com/local/judge-pittsburgh-officials-have-right-to-remove-christopher-columbus-statue-in-schenley-park/

Gilead

Competitive authoritarian regime project

Fig. 1. President Lyndon B. Johnson, Martin Luther King, Jr., and Clarence Mitchell during signing ceremony of the voting rights act. Yoichi Okamoto, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

[Former U.S. Representative Ryan] Costello, who served in the House from 2015 to 2019, asked that the U.S. Supreme Court take up the case alongside a similar one out of North Carolina it agreed in June to hear to “rein in the state judiciaries’ unconstitutional meddling in congressional redistricting decisions.” . . .

Costello’s defense of the [Pennsylvania] legislature’s map relies on a contentious legal theory called the “independent state legislature doctrine” that is gaining traction in conservative legal circles and, if accepted, would vastly increase politicians’ control over how elections are conducted.

Four of the U.S. Supreme Court’s six conservative justices have previously expressed interest in having the court resolve whether state courts have authority to reject rules adopted by a state legislature for use in federal elections.^[3]

Nate Raymond, “U.S. Supreme Court rejects challenge to Pennsylvania electoral map,” Reuters, October 3, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-supreme-court-rejects-challenge-pennsylvania-electoral-map-2022-10-03/

Gun nuttery

Fig. 1. “Rally Against Gun Control ‘Come and Take it’ flag at the Minnesota State Capitol,” photograph by Fibonacci Blue [pseud.], April 28, 2018, via Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.

The U.S. Supreme Court, which expanded gun rights in a major decision in June, on Monday declined to hear a challenge to a federal ban on devices called “bump stocks” that enable semi-automatic weapons to fire like a machine gun – a firearms control measure prompted by a 2017 Las Vegas mass shooting.

The justices turned away appeals by a Utah gun lobbyist named Clark Aposhian and firearms rights groups of lower court rulings upholding the ban as a reasonable interpretation of a federal law prohibiting machine gun possession.^[4]

^[1]Jade Campos, “Columbus statue in Schenley Park vandalized,” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, June 12, 2020, https://www.post-gazette.com/local/city/2020/06/12/christopher-columbus-statue-vandalized-pittsburgh-phipps-schenley-park/stories/202006120120 ↩
^[2]Paula Reed Ward, “Judge: Pittsburgh officials have right to remove Christopher Columbus statue in Schenley Park,” Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, October 3, 2021, https://triblive.com/local/judge-pittsburgh-officials-have-right-to-remove-christopher-columbus-statue-in-schenley-park/↩
^[3]Nate Raymond, “U.S. Supreme Court rejects challenge to Pennsylvania electoral map,” Reuters, October 3, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-supreme-court-rejects-challenge-pennsylvania-electoral-map-2022-10-03/↩
^[4]Andrew Chung, “U.S. Supreme Court rejects challenge to ban on gun ‘bump stocks,’ Reuters, October 3, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-supreme-court-rejects-challenge-ban-gun-bump-stocks-2022-10-03/↩